Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Hacker Khan]

Couldn't agree more, we are stuck between a weak PM running scared and a parliament full of game players that allow the EU negotiaters to treat us with the contempt we deserve.

Now who's the one with no confidence in the UK

 

[ColchesterFC]

I'd argue, rightly or wrongly, our negotiating strategy has been mostly based around damage limitation.

I'd argue we've been weak from the very start of the negotiations. Recent comments from France about access to fishing areas and previous comments from German industry to Merkel demanding a deal be agreed show that we obviously do have some things that EU countries want access to. Add in what has been said by Spain about making their own arrangements/agreements with the UK in the event of no deal and we had the opportunity to be much stronger than it appears we w

 

[harpo_72]

The French were looking to make a trade deal on the fishing waters... The Gibraltar question was left unanswered.
There are other stakeholders at work ... but in the end if you want out or the Canada deal why not just go,bare in mind though these countries are established and have their trade agreements laid out.
It will be interesting to see what the European Court rules regarding the reversal of article 50. Which means 3 deals on the table ...

 

[Slime]

Not in the slightest, no. It's just unfortunate that the humour didn't translate for some reason. I'll try harder next time 👍

Your sentiment only had a tiny bit of humour in it, your words, so the vast majority of it must have been serious ........................ surely.

 

[bluewolf]

Your sentiment only had a tiny bit of humour in it, your words, so the vast majority of it must have been serious ........................ surely.

If you say so. You know best. I just wrote it. You went to all the effort of reading it 👍

 

[SocketRocket]

Now who's the one with no confidence in the UK

It must be an abject lesson on how not to negotiate.

 

[SocketRocket]

If you're just going to provide links to Pro Brexit Matthew Elliot owned propaganda sites then it's not really worth discussing.

Here's the latest from the Independant..

https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/no-deal-brexit-0

Well here's another but as its a positive view on WTO I guess its not acceptable.

It was also interesting to hear Hammond on the news this morning suggesting how much more expensive food imports would be to the UK due to WTO tariffs that would be applied. He fails to say that its up to the UK not the EU what tariffs would be applied to our imports.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/whos-afraid-of-the-wto/

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I see the Tory party/May/Brexit leaders have blocked the only non unionist supporting newspaper in Scotland from attending her Scottish press conference.
I wonder why I am not surprised at that.

 

[SocketRocket]

I'd argue, rightly or wrongly, our negotiating strategy has been mostly based around damage limitation.

Yes, the amount of damage we are inflicting on ourselves.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Yes, the amount of damage we are inflicting on ourselves.

You can take that several ways. One may argue that our negotiating tactic has been to try and minimise the economic and political damage we are causing to ourselves through our decision to brexit. Others may well have a different take.

 

[SocketRocket]

You can take that several ways. One may argue that our negotiating tactic has been to try and minimise the economic and political damage we are causing to ourselves through our decision to brexit. Others may well have a different take.

The peoples vote decided for us to leave the EU, these negotiations have been targeted at trying to keep us in it except by name and not respecting what the majority wanted. There has been too much exaggeration and hype on what leaving would entail and I would suggest the Governments negotiating policy has been undemocratic and as such will fail.

 

[Hacker Khan]

The peoples vote decided for us to leave the EU, these negotiations have been targeted at trying to keep us in it except by name and not respecting what the majority wanted. There has been too much exaggeration and hype on what leaving would entail and I would suggest the Governments negotiating policy has been undemocratic and as such will fail.

I'd strap yourself in for the treasury report coming out today on the economic impact of the various types of Brexit then, especially the hard Brexit. As it may not make pleasant reading for some.

 

[MegaSteve]

I'd like to see a breakdown of how they arrived at 39M... Still feel it was a figure plucked out of the air...

And, when this is all done and dusted I won't be missing the sight of the total tool determined to get in every shot broadcast from outside Westminster...

 

[chrisd]

I won't be missing the sight of the total tool determined to get in every shot broadcast from outside Westminster...

Laura Kuenssberg??

 

[Hacker Khan]

I'd like to see a breakdown of how they arrived at 39M... Still feel it was a figure plucked out of the air...

And, when this is all done and dusted I won't be missing the sight of the total tool determined to get in every shot broadcast from outside Westminster...

I'm pretty sure there was a bit more to it then randomly picking a figure out of the air, but you'd probably need to be a trained accountant or actuary to totally understand how that figure was arrived at. Try this for a bit more background on it https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/

 

[drdel]

I'd strap yourself in for the treasury report coming out today on the economic impact of the various types of Brexit then, especially the hard Brexit. As it may not make pleasant reading for some.

You may wish to note that Hammond says he's talking about GDP and "...in purely economics terms...." and there are numerous assumptions on how they've got to "up to 5%". They make no allowance for any increase in the trade we already have with RoW where all predictions on world trade says 90% of future growth will be and since the EU has a mature and almost saturated market with low growth that rate may be proportionately higher..

In addition if we no longer pay the EU contribution there will be that cash that can be spent internal and externally that will influence both the velocity of inside cash and GDP.

 

[MegaSteve]

Laura Kuenssberg??

I was thinking more of the placard waving, blue clad, soppy hat wearing remainer...

 

[bluewolf]

Well here's another but as its a positive view on WTO I guess its not acceptable.

It was also interesting to hear Hammond on the news this morning suggesting how much more expensive food imports would be to the UK due to WTO tariffs that would be applied. He fails to say that its up to the UK not the EU what tariffs would be applied to our imports.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/whos-afraid-of-the-wto/

And there are just as many highly negative ones. I take both with a pinch of salt. If you only accept the ones that confirm what you already believe then you won't actually learn anything.

 

[Foxholer]

You may wish to note that Hammond says he's talking about GDP and "...in purely economics terms...." and there are numerous assumptions on how they've got to "up to 5%". They make no allowance for any increase in the trade we already have with RoW where all predictions on world trade says 90% of future growth will be and since the EU has a mature and almost saturated market with low growth that rate may be proportionately higher..

In addition if we no longer pay the EU contribution there will be that cash that can be spent internal and externally that will influence both the velocity of inside cash and GDP.

You are 'conveniently' ignoring the fact that (allegedly) he states that while the May deal will reduce GDP by 40Bn compared to staying in, a 'No-Deal' Brexit would reduce GDP by 150Bn! Presumably there are assumptions about the level of 'other' trade deals that would be made in both those scenarios. And the (Nett) EU contribution - some of it returns to UK in various forms already - would surely have been taken into account too!

But the Brexit vote wasn't actually about Trade! It was about Independence!

 

[MegaSteve]

I'm pretty sure there was a bit more to it then randomly picking a figure out of the air, but you'd probably need to be a trained accountant or actuary to totally understand how that figure was arrived at. Try this for a bit more background on it https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/

Have tended to believe the bigger the lie the more complicated you make the explanation...