Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Hobbit]

What part of the 'The votes have been cast and the result is that we leave the EU' do you not understand?

Its very easy to understand. But do you believe our politicians are just going to leave. The electorate made the wrong decision but don't worry the politicians are going to put it right.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Its very easy to understand. But do you believe our politicians are just going to leave. The electorate made the wrong decision but don't worry the politicians are going to put it right.

And it is very easy to understand that the vote asked the public whether we wanted to remain in the EU or leave it - the public voted in very large numbers and by a very small majority voted to leave - and where we are today the UK WILL be leaving the EU on 29th March come what may.

So yes - in absolute and 100% accordance with the question posed in the referendum - it is actually very easy to understand. The UK is leaving the EU.

 

[SocketRocket]

So why are we sourcing from all over the world if we do it here .... probably because we don’t do it to the volume, cost effectiveness, quality or skill level.

Due to multinational organisations. Just look at a company like Volkswagen, they use the same components in VW, Audi, Seat, Skoda cars, they are not going to duplicate the manufacture of engine parts for each brand. Its not due to British manufacturers lacking skill or can manage the volume or incompetence, we have companies that produce some of the highest quality products in the world, have a look at Rolls Royce aero engines, ot take a trip to Gloucestershire and see how the Engineering company Renishaw ,lead the world with their products.and cutting edge technology. You dont seem to have a lot of confidence in uk manufacturing.

 

[Slime]

Its very easy to understand. But do you believe our politicians are just going to leave. The electorate made the wrong decision but don't worry the politicians are going to put it right.

Oh come on, that just smacks of arrogance and being a poor loser.
Remainers lost, get over it!!

 

[Hobbit]

Oh come on, that just smacks of arrogance and being a poor loser.
Remainers lost, get over it!!

See the smilie at the end of my post you quoted... it was tongue in cheek humour. Loosen your bra strap and smile a little.

 

[Foxholer]

Possibly, but in the long term the crankshaft will be made in one place which will actually save time and money.
...

If that was really the case, then it would a;most certainly be happening now!

I suspect that each of those manufacturing plants actually 'specialises' in the work it does for the crankshaft - whether it be casting, finishing, motor assembly or whatever!

It's this specialisation that actually saves costs - in both human and plant resources. The transport overheads involved are significantly smaller in comparison!

That's why there's a danger of losing entire plants from UK fter Brexit. Any bureaucratic delays could be avoided by moving the UK portions of the enterprise to an EU member site!

Surely if tariffs are imposed, Mini will find a way of making the crankshaft in one country.

Tariffs are not necessarily the greatest issue. Additional cost, whether caused by tariffs or less efficiency (see above) are the issue.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Appreciate the sentiment but years have past and the skills have migrated to more complex industries. It would be great to be back to our Victorian greatness where an engineer designs, the raw materials are worked and the finished item rolls out of the door. As a nation we did not plan for this day, we don’t have those people with those skills ready to go ... to have a vision you need a plan and the complex plan is broken down with milestones for achievable goals.
Brexit has none, it has an enthusiasm, a confused agenda, a lack of patience, and an end goal. Ultimately it needs better planning, agreed goals and it needs to engage and change people’s minds.

Remember back in the day before Art50 was triggered some of the worried were asking about the plan - asking where the plan was for leaving the EU and what the re-engagement would be like. Remember these days? I do. Because I asked many, many times about the plan; milestones; criteria for knowing a milestone had been reached; and the risk analysis that any plan will have that would be required to see us through the negotiations to the end of the 2yr period post triggering Art50.

And I remember this very clearly as my request was always dismissed by the usual suspects as being naive, silly - didn't I understand how big boys do negotiations - how important it is to keep your cards and negotiation strategy close to your chest - and to have a realistic and believable fallback position. Of course Dave Davis can't tell us his plan or strategy for leaving - how silly of me even to ask or question that he might not actually have one - of course he's got one. Yes I remember very well the dismissive 'oh you are so naive' responses fired at me - I remember them well as the country today sits in the most mega of all omni-shambles with nobody seemingly having any sort of plan whatsoever to see us through this.

And I can also remember what No Deal started out as - not really something we'd ever want to do - but something that all big boy grown up negotiators have to have - because negotiating leaving the EU is just the same as any big commercial negotiation (yes really it is...). And even although most commercial negotiations will have the 'status quo' as the fallback walk-away position, this negotiation was the same - ah but it was also different - as the status quo could not be the walk-away. No something else had to be invented - and so we ended up with No Deal as the walk-away.

I remember very well. And I don't expect anyone to admit there was never a plan.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I was one of the first folk to scoff/laugh at the deal and my initial estimate was it had a 0% chance of getting thru the HoC's. Having watched the events of the last week unfold, my revised estimate of the May deal getting thru the HoC's is now 50% i.e. I think she has a real chance of getting this deal thru. The Tory rebels got less than 30 letters to try and oust her via a leadership contest, and with a decent chunk of Labour back bench MP's unlikely to follow Corbyn's instruction to vote against it, she just might get it thru after all. It's gonna be very VERY tight and the wheels might still totally come off before we get to the HoC's vote, but I honestly believe she is NOT delusional, the deal has a real chance of making it IMO.

This is the reading of the lie of the land I hear from quite a few commentators...

 

[Hobbit]

Remember back in the day before Art50 was triggered some of the worried were asking about the plan - asking where the plan was for leaving the EU and what the re-engagement would be like. Remember these days? I do. Because I asked many, many times about the plan; milestones; criteria for knowing a milestone had been reached; and the risk analysis that any plan will have that would be required to see us through the negotiations to the end of the 2yr period post triggering Art50.

And I remember this very clearly as my request was always dismissed by the usual suspects as being naive, silly - didn't I understand how big boys do negotiations - how important it is to keep your cards and negotiation strategy close to your chest - and to have a realistic and believable fallback position. Of course Dave Davis can't tell us his plan or strategy for leaving - how silly of me even to ask or question that he might not actually have one - of course he's got one. Yes I remember very well the dismissive 'oh you are so naive' responses fired at me - I remember them well as the country today sits in the most mega of all omni-shambles with nobody seemingly having any sort of plan whatsoever to see us through this.

And I can also remember what No Deal started out as - not really something we'd ever want to do - but something that all big boy grown up negotiators have to have - because negotiating leaving the EU is just the same as any big commercial negotiation (yes really it is...). And even although most commercial negotiations will have the 'status quo' as the fallback walk-away position, this negotiation was the same - ah but it was also different - as the status quo could not be the walk-away. No something else had to be invented - and so we ended up with No Deal as the walk-away.

I remember very well. And I don't expect anyone to admit there was never a plan.

And the answer to your requests back then was very valid. You don't let the opposite negotiating team know what your plans are. You demanded and demanded and you were told by people well versed in negotiations that you don't disclose your plans. And not unsurprisingly you haven't taken that onboard. And yes you were being naive to ask to see that plan. But no doubt you won't take that onboard either.

As for where we are now, and No Deal plans, you know what I know. And as you know there have been teams of negotiators travelling globally for informal discussions. And that's all they're allowed to do until either the No Deal Brexit date or the end of the transition period.

The walk away, as you rightly say, is not to go back to the status quo. However, it is to open/sign new deals around the world, including with the freedom to set or abolish tariff rates and quotas. I wonder why the UK has been invited to join the fastest growing trading bloc in the world? I wonder why intelligent world leaders would invite a dead in the water country like the UK? Maybe they see something in the UK that you patently don't.

 

[bluewolf]

And the answer to your requests back then was very valid. You don't let the opposite negotiating team know what your plans are. You demanded and demanded and you were told by people well versed in negotiations that you don't disclose your plans. And not unsurprisingly you haven't taken that onboard. And yes you were being naive to ask to see that plan. But no doubt you won't take that onboard either.

As for where we are now, and No Deal plans, you know what I know. And as you know there have been teams of negotiators travelling globally for informal discussions. And that's all they're allowed to do until either the No Deal Brexit date or the end of the transition period.

The walk away, as you rightly say, is not to go back to the status quo. However, it is to open/sign new deals around the world, including with the freedom to set or abolish tariff rates and quotas. I wonder why the UK has been invited to join the fastest growing trading bloc in the world? I wonder why intelligent world leaders would invite a dead in the water country like the UK? Maybe they see something in the UK that you patently don't.

Do you play Poker Bri?
When arranging a game, it's always prudent to invite a donor to the party. Someone who has little experience and will most likely be the first to cash out.

😉😉😉

 

[Doon frae Troon]

What part of the 'The votes have been cast and the result is that we leave the EU' do you not understand?

I understand the bit where it was said by a PM who lies and misleads parliament.

 

[bobmac]

If that was really the case, then it would a;most certainly be happening now!

I suspect that each of those manufacturing plants actually 'specialises' in the work it does for the crankshaft - whether it be casting, finishing, motor assembly or whatever!

It's this specialisation that actually saves costs - in both human and plant resources. The transport overheads involved are significantly smaller in comparison!

That's why there's a danger of losing entire plants from UK fter Brexit. Any bureaucratic delays could be avoided by moving the UK portions of the enterprise to an EU member site!



Tariffs are not necessarily the greatest issue. Additional cost, whether caused by tariffs or less efficiency (see above) are the issue.

Just to be clear.........I have no interest in anything you have to say.
Ignored

 

[Foxholer]

Just to be clear.........I have no interest in anything you have to say.
Ignored

Oh Good! No more replies like the above then!

And just to be clear....I'm merely expressing my opinion - which occasionally happens to differ from yours, but, as far as I know, we are both entitled to them! That's the nature of forums and as long as everyone respects that principle, then harmony reigns! Unfortunately, that 'forum principle' often gets lost in emotive topics such as this one!

 

[Imurg]

And just to be clear....I'm merely expressing my opinion - which occasionally happens to differ from yours, but, as far as I know, we are both entitled to them! That's the nature of forums and as long as everyone respects that principle, then harmony reigns!

Good luck with that one Foxy.....

 

[Foxholer]

Good luck with that one Foxy.....

 

[harpo_72]

I

Due to multinational organisations. Just look at a company like Volkswagen, they use the same components in VW, Audi, Seat, Skoda cars, they are not going to duplicate the manufacture of engine parts for each brand. Its not due to British manufacturers lacking skill or can manage the volume or incompetence, we have companies that produce some of the highest quality products in the world, have a look at Rolls Royce aero engines, ot take a trip to Gloucestershire and see how the Engineering company Renishaw ,lead the world with their products.and cutting edge technology. You dont seem to have a lot of confidence in uk manufacturing.

I cannot accurately comment on the aero industry and would be speculating, if it vaguely followed the UK industry it would be the Aston Martin/ Rolls Royce model not the mass production model. So volume and demand are less and the supply chain is slack.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And the answer to your requests back then was very valid. You don't let the opposite negotiating team know what your plans are. You demanded and demanded and you were told by people well versed in negotiations that you don't disclose your plans. And not unsurprisingly you haven't taken that onboard. And yes you were being naive to ask to see that plan. But no doubt you won't take that onboard either.

As for where we are now, and No Deal plans, you know what I know. And as you know there have been teams of negotiators travelling globally for informal discussions. And that's all they're allowed to do until either the No Deal Brexit date or the end of the transition period.

The walk away, as you rightly say, is not to go back to the status quo. However, it is to open/sign new deals around the world, including with the freedom to set or abolish tariff rates and quotas. I wonder why the UK has been invited to join the fastest growing trading bloc in the world? I wonder why intelligent world leaders would invite a dead in the water country like the UK? Maybe they see something in the UK that you patently don't.

Bottom line is that they had no idea - not even a scoobies. Cracking bluff to play on the EU negotiators - pretend you know what you are doing. Don't think it worked though. I didn't need to know the detail of the UKs wriggle room and red lines - the EU were to know very soon after. I was asking for some idea of what the UK wished to achieve and by when. What were the risks (we eventually got the risks many many months later but only from Raab). How would the UK public know our negotiators were on track to agree a Withdrawal Agreement...but too secret I was told - can't tell you. And the truth is they were telling a porky to us - there was no plan. Davis was - and is - clueless.

 

[Hobbit]

Bottom line is that they had no idea - not even a scoobies. Cracking bluff to play on the EU negotiators - pretend you know what you are doing. Don't think it worked though. I didn't need to know the detail of the UKs wriggle room and red lines - the EU were to know very soon after. I was asking for some idea of what the UK wished to achieve and by when. What were the risks (we eventually got the risks many many months later but only from Raab). How would the UK public know our negotiators were on track to agree a Withdrawal Agreement...but too secret I was told - can't tell you. And the truth is they were telling a porky to us - there was no plan. Davis was - and is - clueless.

In your opinion.

If they had no idea why did they send negotiating teams around the world? A bus trip for the boys? Why have they sent out xx technical notes relating to No Deal? To waste paper?

And don't be childish with the "too secret" comment. You're better than that. You know full well you don't sit across the table from someone and ask them should you play the Ace or the Queen.

Were they telling us porky's or were they not revealing on the various news programmes, when questioned, being circumspect with the truth? And of course you know they were telling lies and clueless because they told you. They do get BBC in Brussels, and Barnier has Sky...

 

[Slime]

See the smilie at the end of my post you quoted... it was tongue in cheek humour. Loosen your bra strap and smile a little.

Sorry Hobbit, my mistake.
If I'd bothered to see who the poster was I would probably have realised.
Sorry fella.
Consider my bra straps loosened.

 

[drdel]

Remember back in the day before Art50 was triggered some of the worried were asking about the plan - asking where the plan was for leaving the EU and what the re-engagement would be like. Remember these days? I do. Because I asked many, many times about the plan; milestones; criteria for knowing a milestone had been reached; and the risk analysis that any plan will have that would be required to see us through the negotiations to the end of the 2yr period post triggering Art50.

And I remember this very clearly as my request was always dismissed by the usual suspects as being naive, silly - didn't I understand how big boys do negotiations - how important it is to keep your cards and negotiation strategy close to your chest - and to have a realistic and believable fallback position. Of course Dave Davis can't tell us his plan or strategy for leaving - how silly of me even to ask or question that he might not actually have one - of course he's got one. Yes I remember very well the dismissive 'oh you are so naive' responses fired at me - I remember them well as the country today sits in the most mega of all omni-shambles with nobody seemingly having any sort of plan whatsoever to see us through this.

And I can also remember what No Deal started out as - not really something we'd ever want to do - but something that all big boy grown up negotiators have to have - because negotiating leaving the EU is just the same as any big commercial negotiation (yes really it is...). And even although most commercial negotiations will have the 'status quo' as the fallback walk-away position, this negotiation was the same - ah but it was also different - as the status quo could not be the walk-away. No something else had to be invented - and so we ended up with No Deal as the walk-away.

I remember very well. And I don't expect anyone to admit there was never a plan.

And I guess Barnier, Juncker, Spain and France are angels and have not been unreasonable or playing brinkmanship in your dreamworld where only the UK can be wrong.