Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SocketRocket]

So you don't know that it's a good deal. You think that it's better than the one on offer. They might both be terrible deals. They might be the worst 2 deals in the history of the World. Who knows? Let's push the button and ride the Brexit rollercoaster 😂

Riding the Bear always turns out badly.

 

[drdel]

You make it sound so easy - but let’s be blunt you don’t know if it’s going to work like that , your statements have a few “coulds” - “probablys” and you certainly can’t say “would” as if it’s a given.

And how do you know the “benefits” will be better after a “no deal”

And all these “manufacturer this and that” “ grow this “ - that’s just words at the end of the day and saying it is easy. What exactly is it you think we will “manufacture” or grow etc

And that “degree of discomfort” could well mean thousand maybe more losing jobs , companies going under , thousands looking for benefits - maybe it’s a damn sight more than a “degree of discomfort” for a lot of people.

 

[SocketRocket]

You make it sound so easy - but let’s be blunt you don’t know if it’s going to work like that , your statements have a few “coulds” - “probablys” and you certainly can’t say “would” as if it’s a given.

And how do you know the “benefits” will be better after a “no deal”

And all these “manufacturer this and that” “ grow this “ - that’s just words at the end of the day and saying it is easy. What exactly is it you think we will “manufacture” or grow etc

And that “degree of discomfort” could well mean thousand maybe more losing jobs , companies going under , thousands looking for benefits - maybe it’s a damn sight more than a “degree of discomfort” for a lot of people.

Maybe you're right maybe I am, that's what decision making is about, you take into account your Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats then balance them against each other.. If you are not prepared to take considered risks and forge opportunities but rather wallow in a security blanket that gradually saps your strength and spirit then that's not for me.

You really do dwell on the negative, I would guess you've never ran a business or employed people, never had to make a decision that could either ruin you or become a cash cow.

What could we manufacture? If you need me to answer that for you then you really are lacking in vision. Is it better to import a pair of socks from China and sell for £1 while keeping a person out of work or get them to make the socks and sell them for £2 and keep that person in work.

 

[drdel]

You make it sound so easy - but let’s be blunt you don’t know if it’s going to work like that , your statements have a few “coulds” - “probablys” and you certainly can’t say “would” as if it’s a given.

And how do you know the “benefits” will be better after a “no deal”

And all these “manufacturer this and that” “ grow this “ - that’s just words at the end of the day and saying it is easy. What exactly is it you think we will “manufacture” or grow etc

And that “degree of discomfort” could well mean thousand maybe more losing jobs , companies going under , thousands looking for benefits - maybe it’s a damn sight more than a “degree of discomfort” for a lot of people.

In fact pretty much what has happened over the decades as the EU has failed to keep pace with RoW who help their industry. The nature of subsidies has distorted the internal market so that it means the main country to have benefitted is Germany as the grants/subsidised southern member spend their ECB loans. Having taken their eye off the ball it means a major re-adjustment is needed because too many members are net takers out of a shrinking pot.

 

[Old Skier]

Any Leave voter who lambasted or abused Gina Miller for forcing the government on Art50 and the a parliamentary vote should apologise or at least feel some shame

A bit two faced from someone who spends his days insulting the likes of Mogg, Johnson, Trump and many other politicians that you don't agree with. The normal balance from you again.

 

[bluewolf]

A bit two faced from someone who spends his days insulting the likes of Mogg, Johnson, Trump and many other politicians that you don't agree with. The normal balance from you again.

To be fair, although Hogie has been critical (and occasionally a touch insulting), he hasn't got within a 1000 light years of some of the abuse Miller received/receives. And, she was proven right.

 

[Old Skier]

To be fair, although Hogie has been critical (and occasionally a touch insulting), he hasn't got within a 1000 light years of some of the abuse Miller received/receives. And, she was proven right.

I'm not sure that posters on the forum have been as insulting to Miller but it's all a matter of opinion.

 

[Hobbit]

To be fair, although Hogie has been critical (and occasionally a touch insulting), he hasn't got within a 1000 light years of some of the abuse Miller received/receives. And, she was proven right.

She did what the Labour Party didn't do. She held the government accountable. It shouldn't have needed a court case.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

And as if Brexit could not get any more fractious the 13 Scottish Tory Westminster MP's have now split into three political groups.

 

[Foxholer]

There is no such thing as a No Deal. The deal would be leaving the EU just like voters wanted...

Er..That - falling back to WTO Trading arrangements and the minimum set of ties to the EU - i's what (I believe) everybody means by 'No Deal'! Of course there's still the 'divorce settlement' of committed funding of agreed projects, salaries/pensions and likely a few other items to negotiate. But Article 50 certainly allows for a 'No Deal' situation!

 

[Foxholer]

She did what the Labour Party didn't do. She held the government accountable. It shouldn't have needed a court case.

Correction....

She did what the Labour Party was unable to do within Parliament. She held the government accountable by the only means available.

It shouldn't have needed a Supreme Court Appeal!

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Do you read what you post? Did you read Birrell's article? I suggest you read it again, slowly and carefully. The shackles he talks about are those that are already in place BEFORE any deal is signed. Or were you deliberately twisting it to hide the fact you didn't understand it first time round.

And you're right, the agreement will see us as a vassal state. Tied to regulations that we had no say in making, and can't get out of short of breaking laws. In effect, the Brexiteers are right to kick off about the agreement. It needs tweaking, if the EU will, or it needs ditching.

Roll on no deal.

Ah - I see where Birrell talks of 'shackles'...

The Brexiteers sold a vision of a richer, freer and stronger nation once we shook off the shackles of Brussels with their promises to keep out foreigners, slash red tape and salvage the health service

...though I read this as how the Brexiteers see being in the EU as being 'shackled' - it is not, I think, how Birrell sees it - as he says a little earlier in his article

Britain goes from having the best arrangement in Europe – with influence, a decent rebate and no euro – to becoming a supine rule-taker to access vital markets.

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment...on-refuse-abandon-fantasy-put-country-danger/

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

To deal with your first paragraph; you are happy to have the EU set our tariffs ad infinitum? Perhaps I shouldn't have put the question mark there. Your are happy for the EU to control an independent body that sets our agricultural policy and subsidies? Have you bothered to read the agreement yet, or are you going on sound bites from politicians and business leaders with a vested interest?

Second paragraph; I, and others, have told you on numerous occasions that technical solutions are already available and are already in use throughout the EU. I also told you of a BBC piece about how goods enter Estonia, the EU, from Russia, non-EU, using a technical solution at the border. And now you question whether or not it is true. That is deeply insulting. Why would I lie? Of course its bloody true.

I am not questioning what happens now in other countries and across other borders - I might question whether it is relevant or appropriate to the NI/EU border.

But let us assume that technical solutions implemented elsewhere (though not it seems that efficiently on the Swiss/EU border) ARE appropriate and the UK has been strung along by the EU to get to this cul-de-sac mess we are in. If this is indeed the case then there is no issue with such a technical solution being implemented within the Transition Period - the backstop will never come into play. The UK accepts the Withdrawal Agreement as it stands - the EU has got it's way - and so it let's the technical solution to the NI/EU be implemented. Even it the EU didn't - the UK could implement our own on the NI side of the border.

So in believing that the solutions exist as you and others insist - why would the backstop solution that ties the UK into a customs alignment with the EU ever be initiated - even temporarily. The backstop is only there in the event that there is NO solution - technical or otherwise.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

There is no such thing as a No Deal. The deal would be leaving the EU just like voters wanted. Trading arrangements would start under WTO just like so many countries in the World, there would probably emerge a trade agreement with the EU as it would be very much in their best interests. The UK could drop tariffs and get some more favourable trading arrangements around the world. It would take some adjustment and no doubt a degree of discomfort but kicking any bad habit brings some of that, the benefit is you become healthier, fitter and in better shape afterwards. Let's start manufacturing more, growing more, creating more worthwhile jobs and also ones that give a future to the less gifted in our country, working is a great theropy for a better life. It isn't all gloom and doom out there

You do know that Patrick Minford - advocate and champion of a No Deal - tells us that...

Minford’s policy recommendation is that following a vote for Brexit, the UK should not bother striking new trade deals but instead unilaterally abolish all its import tariffs (let’s call this policy ‘Britain Alone’). The UK would simply pay the tariffs imposed by other countries on UK exports. This is usually the worst-case scenario that other economists have examined.

This would be a pretty hard sell to UK citizens. Minford admits his model predicts that the policy would cause the ‘elimination’ of UK manufacturing and a large increase in wage inequality. But although he is relaxed about these outcomes, we suspect that voters in Port Talbot and elsewhere in Britain wouldn’t be so impressed.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...onomists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/

Or is that just Minford engaging in Project Fear...

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

A bit two faced from someone who spends his days insulting the likes of Mogg, Johnson, Trump and many other politicians that you don't agree with. The normal balance from you again.

They are LIARS and CHARLATANS...I truly do not wish to insult any person here - that some might take insult or hurt from my opinions is for them - I cannot help that.

Where someone in a position of influence LIES or attempts to DECEIVE or MISINFORM the public for their own ideological ends I call that out as I see it.

 

[drdel]

They are LIARS and CHARLATANS...I truly do not wish to insult any person here - that some might take insult or hurt from my opinions is for them - I cannot help that.

Where someone in a position of influence LIES or attempts to DECEIVE or MISINFORM the public for their own ideological ends I call that out as I see it.

'Shouting' isn't required. If you 'pen' comments that insults fellow members then you must take responsibility for what you've written. Obviously it is your intention

- It seems hysteria has entered the room and the thread's heading downhill as it did some months ago with 'Mark 1'

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Good news, all is not yet lost.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...court-if-brexit-can-be-reversed-a3994556.html

 

[ColchesterFC]

They are LIARS and CHARLATANS...I truly do not wish to insult any person here - that some might take insult or hurt from my opinions is for them - I cannot help that.

Where someone in a position of influence LIES or attempts to DECEIVE or MISINFORM the public for their own ideological ends I call that out as I see it.

But were they telling lies or were they just exaggerating?

 

[bobmac]

A bit two faced from someone who spends his days insulting the likes of Mogg, Johnson, Trump and many other politicians that you don't agree with. The normal balance from you again.

They are LIARS and CHARLATANS...I truly do not wish to insult any person here - that some might take insult or hurt from my opinions is for them - I cannot help that.

He didn't say you did

 

[Deleted member 18121]

If you have a spare 10 minutes I just came across this speech and found some parts of it to be quite pertinent