Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Foxholer]

I don't accept Hammond's assessment for one main reason. The numbers used in that assessment were poo-poo'd by Mark Carney weeks ago. Nothing to do with Leave or Remain, its about credibility. If Mark Carney had said them I'd be more inclined to believe there's some substance in them. Hammond has been an extreme disciple of Remain since whenever, just like Johnson on the Leave side. Neither of them are honest brokers.

Irrespective of whether the numbers are 'perfect', or even either 200% or 50% of the result, they demonstrate the potential for chaos for a 'No Deal' result!

But it is certainly hugely 'in the interest' of both the UK and the EU to make a number of administrative deals, even if these are 'as now' ones.

I'm certain that these (such as those that allow aircraft to fly between the 2 regions) WILL be made, even if 'headline' deals like membership of Customs Union is, imo, unlikely to happen and other exit 'deal' areas get deferred for a number of years!

Of greatest concern though is the issue of UK's Financial Services deal - and the 'passporting' that allows 'London' organisations to sell anywhere in Europe. If no satisfactorily 'deal' to replace this, then a huge chunk of the economy will simply move away from the UK! Hammond, certainly a devout 'Remainer', might have underestimated the effect of Brexit on GDP might actually be an underestimate!

Here's a link to info wrt Financial Services and UK GDP https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06193

I don't believe Hammond is trying to change Brexit to Remain. Simply warning of the (worst case?) consequences!

I certainly have more faith in Carney's views - he's meant to be independent - though he too has been wrong (on the dire side) with previous Brexit consequences forecasts!

 

[drdel]

Irrespective of whether the numbers are 'perfect', or even either 200% or 50% of the result, they demonstrate the potential for chaos for a 'No Deal' result!

But it is certainly hugely 'in the interest' of both the UK and the EU to make a number of administrative deals, even if these are 'as now' ones.

I'm certain that these (such as those that allow aircraft to fly between the 2 regions) WILL be made, even if 'headline' deals like membership of Customs Union is, imo, unlikely to happen and other exit 'deal' areas get deferred for a number of years!

Of greatest concern though is the issue of UK's Financial Services deal - and the 'passporting' that allows 'London' organisations to sell anywhere in Europe. If no satisfactorily 'deal' to replace this, then a huge chunk of the economy will simply move away from the UK! Hammond, certainly a devout 'Remainer', might have underestimated the effect of Brexit on GDP might actually be an underestimate!

Here's a link to info wrt Financial Services and UK GDP https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06193

I don't believe Hammond is trying to change Brexit to Remain. Simply warning of the (worst case?) consequences!

I certainly have more faith in Carney's views - he's meant to be independent - though he too has been wrong (on the dire side) with previous Brexit consequences forecasts!

He made the statement with so many qualifiers he could have twisted it by 180. British banks underpin major elements of rEU 27's business and governments with a variety of financial instruments not available elsewhere; these can be enhanced and even more competitive after March '19.

The world will not end!! Some items and holidays in the EU might be slightly more expensive ( Many Brits take holidays outside EU without breaking a sweat).

The UK will be able to set its own import duties on EU products so it could be set at a zero rate if its advantageous to UK.

Those pseudo-democrats who think we should stay part of the EU might wish to be more concerned that Merkel is trying to ensure that Juncker's successor is a German !!!

 

[Mudball]

He made the statement with so many qualifiers he could have twisted it by 180. British banks underpin major elements of rEU 27's business and governments with a variety of financial instruments not available elsewhere; these can be enhanced and even more competitive after March '19.

The world will not end!! Some items and holidays in the EU might be slightly more expensive ( Many Brits take holidays outside UK with breaking a sweat).

The UK will be able to set its own import duties on EU products so it could be set at a zero rate if its advantageous to UK.

Those pseudo-democrats who think we should stay part of the EU might wish to be more concerned that Merkel is trying to ensure that Juncker's successor is a German !!!

Absolutly true... And the reason they are able to do it is because of the 'passporting' system that allows Brit banks with the license to do so. In the absense of the passporting system, we operate like Hongkong or New York - which while competitive cannot support the rEU like London does. Hence the reason why rEU countries are trying to move this business to Europe.

and just on that subject, dont be fooled to think that passporting only affects the corporate bank. The profits made from corporate help keep retail banks covered and therfore to some extend provide products that are cheaper e.g. Mortgages, credit cards etc. So lack of passporting will have an indirect impact on your wallet.

.. but what would i know, i spend some time within our financial institutes..

 

[drdel]

Absolutly true... And the reason they are able to do it is because of the 'passporting' system that allows Brit banks with the license to do so. In the absense of the passporting system, we operate like Hongkong or New York - which while competitive cannot support the rEU like London does. Hence the reason why rEU countries are trying to move this business to Europe.

and just on that subject, dont be fooled to think that passporting only affects the corporate bank. The profits made from corporate help keep retail banks covered and therfore to some extend provide products that are cheaper e.g. Mortgages, credit cards etc. So lack of passporting will have an indirect impact on your wallet.

.. but what would i know, i spend some time within our financial institutes..

Ok but 'Passporting' is just one facilitating element of these deals. Remember there are two (usually more) parties to such arrangements - if the EU wishes to restrict these products they harm their members interests. There are alternative routes that British institutions can take and that the UK government can assist organisations exploit when it is not shackled by EU restraints.

 

[Foxholer]

Ok but 'Passporting' is just one facilitating element of these deals. Remember there are two (usually more) parties to such arrangements - if the EU wishes to restrict these products they harm their members interests. There are alternative routes that British institutions can take and that the UK government can assist organisations exploit when it is not shackled by EU restraints.

Er! They'll only be 'restricting' UK interests! EU institutions will simply replace UK ones, either directly or by moving from the UK('London')! The EU financial sector will grow significantly; the UK one will shrink enormously - with consequent significant effect on UK GDP!

Here's an article, admittedly Nov '17, but there hasn't been any fundamental change! The Passport of UK institutions will be lost!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...an-for-banks-economy-pound-euro-a8065131.html

And just exactly what 'EU restraints' are you talking about - for Financial Institutions?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

He made the statement with so many qualifiers he could have twisted it by 180. British banks underpin major elements of rEU 27's business and governments with a variety of financial instruments not available elsewhere; these can be enhanced and even more competitive after March '19.

The world will not end!! Some items and holidays in the EU might be slightly more expensive ( Many Brits take holidays outside EU without breaking a sweat).

The UK will be able to set its own import duties on EU products so it could be set at a zero rate if its advantageous to UK.

Those pseudo-democrats who think we should stay part of the EU might wish to be more concerned that Merkel is trying to ensure that Juncker's successor is a German !!!

...and won't that be good for UK manufacturers competing with these imports directly or indirectly

 

[drdel]

Er! They'll only be 'restricting' UK interests! EU institutions will simply replace UK ones, either directly or by moving from the UK('London')! The EU financial sector will grow significantly; the UK one will shrink enormously - with consequent significant effect on UK GDP!

Here's an article, admittedly Nov '17, but there hasn't been any fundamental change! The Passport of UK institutions will be lost!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...an-for-banks-economy-pound-euro-a8065131.html

And just exactly what 'EU restraints' are you talking about - for Financial Institutions?

Too simplistic; as I said 'passporting' is one aspect that aids EU centric deals; there are alternative international mechanisms. The EU institutions aren't able to offer/duplicate the same worldwide financial instruments.

 

[Mudball]

Too simplistic; as I said 'passporting' is one aspect that aids EU centric deals; there are alternative international mechanisms. The EU institutions aren't able to offer/duplicate the same worldwide financial instruments.

Sure there are.. it’s like saying Man U does not need to play in the Premier League or Chamions League.. it can play in the Community Cup or Caraboa Cup- which it will win easily.

After some time, with not much TV rights money or international following that wants to watch ManU v Guildford or Cleethorpes; the international players leave to play for Paris SG. It’s still good news for ManU since it is still winning locally and plays against MLS or China leagues

 

[drdel]

Sure there are.. it’s like saying Man U does not need to play in the Premier League or Chamions League.. it can play in the Community Cup or Caraboa Cup- which it will win easily.

After some time, with not much TV rights money or international following that wants to watch ManU v Guildford or Cleethorpes; the international players leave to play for Paris SG. It’s still good news for ManU since it is still winning locally and plays against MLS or China leagues

Be realistic. IMO football is a daft analogy for globalised finance and business in general.

The EU is not the whole 'market'/source for the UK and its not the region where growth and opportunities are at their best.

 

[Mudball]

Be realistic. IMO football is a daft analogy for globalised finance and business in general.

The EU is not the whole 'market'/source for the UK and its not the region where growth and opportunities are at their best.

Yes .. it can be daft if you look at geography . The comparison is aimed to say passporting is more like getting the license to play in the premier league. There are other leagues available - London is looking to be a major Chinese currency house. The world wanting to invest in EU will now go via Paris or other centres.

Will the banks loose? Nope.. Banks will move the centre out and still make money. Citibank, UBS and their ilk will make the money. The only loss would be the people who currently do this job in London and other indirect service providers like the coffee shops, the Uber’s, the pubs. Impact on the tax receipts is different story

 

[drdel]

Yes .. it can be daft if you look at geography . The comparison is aimed to say passporting is more like getting the license to play in the premier league. There are other leagues available - London is looking to be a major Chinese currency house. The world wanting to invest in EU will now go via Paris or other centres.

Will the banks loose? Nope.. Banks will move the centre out and still make money. Citibank, UBS and their ilk will make the money. The only loss would be the people who currently do this job in London and other indirect service providers like the coffee shops, the Uber’s, the pubs. Impact on the tax receipts is different story

We'll not agree and I've no wish to clutter the thread further. IMO, with respect, you've swallowed the propaganda and do not give the staff in London enough respect for their business acumen and agility. Time will tell.

 

[SocketRocket]

As the Euro will turn out to be the biggest single and most predictable failure in global financial history, why would anyone in their right mind allow their financial regulations be dictated from Brussels after the UK leaves the EU? The city of London is more than capable of going it alone, just as it has done very successfully for most of it's history.

 

[bluewolf]

As the Euro will turn out to be the biggest single and most predictable failure in global financial history, why would anyone in their right mind allow their financial regulations be dictated from Brussels after the UK leaves the EU? The city of London is more than capable of going it alone, just as it has done very successfully for most of it's history.

Oooh, this sounds interesting. Please tell me why the Euro will be such a failure... genuine question...

 

[MegaSteve]

Mercedes have spent an absolute fortune on upgrading a local dealership... Really can't believe they'd still be investing large sums of money, into the UK, if they really felt we were to be cast adrift without the proverbial paddle...

The end may be nigh... But not for a while just yet...

 

[Mudball]

We'll not agree and I've no wish to clutter the thread further. IMO, with respect, you've swallowed the propaganda and do not give the staff in London enough respect for their business acumen and agility. Time will tell.

We can agree to disagree.. I have vested interest in UK thriving outside of EU. I also think we will adapt and do well in the long run. What I don’t buy is the dummy being peddled by the Leavers leaders that all will be well when we leave and that everyone who is saying that the emperor has no clothes should be tried for treason.

Ironically those worst hit will be the ones who are already struggling. Rees Mog has moved fund to Dublin, the bankers can commute to Paris. The lower skilled, the vulnerable, the farmer won’t be able to do it. May’s magic money tree only provides for a few chosen ones. Key services like the NHS, the science community need people and funds to provide the services or sustain our competitive edge.

In my head I am a capitalist, but as I get older, I emphasise that market mechanisms cannot support a society just as the way pure socialism cannot.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And so I read today that

'Britain would not be able to begin trading seamlessly on WTO terms if it fails to secure a deal with Brussels - that Britain would not automatically switch and continue trading once it leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 "it will be very ambitious to have that kind of outcome"'

Bah humbug - Project Fear.

Er no. Roberto Azevedo - WTO Director General (yesterday)

Just saying

 

[bluewolf]

We can agree to disagree.. I have vested interest in UK thriving outside of EU. I also think we will adapt and do well in the long run. What I don’t buy is the dummy being peddled by the Leavers leaders that all will be well when we leave and that everyone who is saying that the emperor has no clothes should be tried for treason.

Ironically those worst hit will be the ones who are already struggling. Rees Mog has moved fund to Dublin, the bankers can commute to Paris. The lower skilled, the vulnerable, the farmer won’t be able to do it. May’s magic money tree only provides for a few chosen ones. Key services like the NHS, the science community need people and funds to provide the services or sustain our competitive edge.

In my head I am a capitalist, but as I get older, I emphasise that market mechanisms cannot support a society just as the way pure socialism cannot.

Good, reasoned post..

From someone who, in his head is a Socialist, but has always understood that Socialism is a Perfect idea that cannot support a varied Society, just as the way pure Capitalism cannot.

 

[Old Skier]

And so I read today that

'Britain would not be able to begin trading seamlessly on WTO terms if it fails to secure a deal with Brussels - that Britain would not automatically switch and continue trading once it leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 "it will be very ambitious to have that kind of outcome"'

Bah humbug - Project Fear.

Er no. Roberto Azevedo - WTO Director General (yesterday)

Just saying

But do you believe it or are you still sitting on the fence and blaming everyone else for saying it.

Every thread you seem to participate in on politics it's all he said she said. Time for you to say what's going to happen.

 

[Deleted member 1418]

And so I read today that

'Britain would not be able to begin trading seamlessly on WTO terms if it fails to secure a deal with Brussels - that Britain would not automatically switch and continue trading once it leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 "it will be very ambitious to have that kind of outcome"'

Bah humbug - Project Fear.

Er no. Roberto Azevedo - WTO Director General (yesterday)

Just saying

Interesting that I've read today that he also said that a no-deal Brexit would not be the end of the world!!😉

 

[bluewolf]

Interesting that I've read today that he also said that a no-deal Brexit would not be the end of the world!!😉

Does it have to be the end of the world to be the wrong move? 😉