Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Dando]

Jeez, the bus, still ?. Let it go people, move on.

But it promised all that money to the nhs ????‍

 

[bobmac]

Here's another fact for the bus lovers.......
Since the referendum, Britain has given Brussels £45,250,000,000.
Just saying

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Jeez, the bus, still ?. Let it go people, move on.

There is no time limit when it comes to political debate.............unless you’re the opposition
Happy Birthday mate.

 

[Foxholer]

What about all the people losing their jobs, households being £4500 worse off, and all the other scare storys that would happen in the first six months if we voted leave from Osborne. Its pointless regurgitating all this stuff now.

Er...That/those scenario/s were predictions for after we had left. There has indeed been negative effects, though less than predicted - even considering the £4500 was an 'up to' figure grabbed by both sides as the 'real' figure (fear mongering by Osborne/Remain and ridiculed by Leave).

Here's a length summary (from Wikipedia) of the real effects since the referendum - not pretty reading imo. It's extremely rare to have what seems to be almost universal agreement from economists!

Immediate impact on the UK economy
According to one study, the referendum result had pushed up UK inflation by 1.7 percentage points in 2017, leading to an annual cost of £404 for the average British household.[7] Studies published in 2018 estimated that the economic costs of the Brexit vote were 2% of GDP,[8][9][10] or 2.5% of GDP.[11] According to a December 2017 Financial Times analysis, the Brexit referendum results had reduced national British income by 0.6% and 1.3%.[12] A 2018 analysis by Stanford University and Nottingham University economists estimated that uncertainty around Brexit reduced investment by businesses by approximately 6 percentage points and caused an employment reduction by 1.5 percentage points.[13] A number of studies found that Brexit-induced uncertainty about the UK's future trade policy reduced British international trade from June 2016 onwards.[14][15][16][17][18] A 2019 analysis found that British firms substantially increased offshoring to the European Union after the Brexit referendum, whereas European firms reduced new investments in the UK.[19][20]

Short-term macroeconomic forecasts by the Bank of England and other banks of what would happen immediately after the Brexit referendum were too pessimistic.[21] The assessments assumed that the referendum results would create greater uncertainty in markets and reduce consumer confidence more than it did.[21] A number of economists noted that short-term macroeconomic forecasts are generally considered unreliable, as they are something that academic economists do not do, but rather banks do.[22][23][21][24] Economists have compared short-term economic forecasts to weather forecasts whereas the long-term economic forecasts are akin to climate forecasts: the methodologies used in long-term forecasts are "well-established and robust".[21][22][24][25]

Long-term impact on the UK economy
There is overwhelming or near-unanimous agreement among economists that leaving the European Union will adversely affect the British economy in the medium- and long-term.[a][39] Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level.[40][30][31] 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK,[39] and a cost of between 1–10% of the UK's income per capita.[27] These estimates differ depending on whether the UK does a Hard or Soft Brexit.[27] In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario.[41][42]

According to most economists, EU membership has a strong positive effect on trade and, as a result, the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU.[43][44][45][46] According to a study by University of Cambridge economists, under a hard Brexit, whereby the UK reverts to WTO rules, one-third of UK exports to the EU would be tariff-free, one-quarter would face high trade barriers and other exports risk tariffs in the range of 1–10%.[47] A 2017 study found that "almost all UK regions are systematically more vulnerable to Brexit than regions in any other country."[48] A 2017 study examining the economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration" found that there would likely be "a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector."[49][27] It is unclear how changes in trade and foreign investment will interact with immigration, but these changes are likely to be important.[27]

 

[bobmac]

In America there are more 17 year olds in prison than there are at college.
Which just proves if you look hard enough and ask the right people you can make facts say anything

 

[Papas1982]

Its on Boris and his team to sort out the future

the rift has been caused by both sides , people are entitled to protest and demostrate - the reaction to some of them has resorted in violence which has escalated

Insults thrown both ways , derogatory comments - all part of the divide between the two , and it won’t heal for a long time

I fully agree with that, but the post you put up didn't say that at all. It said it was on Brexiters to deliver.

I don't agree re the rift i'm afraid. If the result had been accepted from the start then the retaliation wouldn't have happened. Whilst i accept people have the right to protest, and that the retaliation to prtests has made the issue worse. There have been two votes now, both based around brexit and still there are people put there causing chaos. Part of being in a democracy is respecting the vote. Hiding behind "people are allowed to protest" doesn't wash with me when its all followed by snide comments and efforts to undermine (not aimed at you).

As to the healing, it'll take both sides, but those that still oppose brexit are already looking forward to saying i told you so. Hardly an outlook that suggests they're interested in healing.

 

[Hobbit]

The bus was excellent marketing - it was a clear subliminal message and it worked

What else do you think this means

“We send £350mil a week to the EU , Lets fund our NHS instead “

As said it’s an excellent clever marketing statement that was used very well by the leave campaign.

The money grabbed the attention - then NHS statement sealed the deal and people were thinking of that extra money going into the NHS - it was a very clever marketing message to grab votes and it worked , not sure why people deny it - and it won’t be forgotten about as well by many others

The £350m was debunked long before the vote. It was ridiculed long before the vote. Even prominent Leavers were distancing themselves from it long before the vote.

"Not sure why people deny it..." Maybe because they are not stupid enough, once it was debunked before the vote, to believe it. There was reams in the media debunking it, and if you go back through the thread you'll find reams there too.

"Clear subliminal message..." Now this made me laugh. How can you have a clear subliminal message? Its either clear or subliminal. The message was as clear as day, as was all the intelligent debunking of it, e.g. the rebate meant it was only £189m.

If you're hanging on to this as part of your argument... respectfully, a bit foolish really.

 

[Foxholer]

The £350m was debunked long before the vote. It was ridiculed long before the vote. Even prominent Leavers were distancing themselves from it long before the vote.
...

Yet it still worked - imo!

Even the publicity about it being untrue gave it 'free' advertising!

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Yet it still worked - imo!

Even the publicity about it being untrue gave it 'free' advertising!

Exactly, the best think us “Leavers” could do is not to bite everytime it’s mentioned.

Surely if politics has taught us anything it’s the fact that if enough people believe/fall for an untruth, you’ll never change the mind of them all no matter how much you put them straight.

 

[SocketRocket]

Er...That/those scenario/s were predictions for after we had left. There has indeed been negative effects, though less than predicted - even considering the £4500 was an 'up to' figure grabbed by both sides as the 'real' figure (fear mongering by Osborne/Remain and ridiculed by Leave).

Here's a length summary (from Wikipedia) of the real effects since the referendum - not pretty reading imo. It's extremely rare to have what seems to be almost universal agreement from economists!

Immediate impact on the UK economy
According to one study, the referendum result had pushed up UK inflation by 1.7 percentage points in 2017, leading to an annual cost of £404 for the average British household.[7] Studies published in 2018 estimated that the economic costs of the Brexit vote were 2% of GDP,[8][9][10] or 2.5% of GDP.[11] According to a December 2017 Financial Times analysis, the Brexit referendum results had reduced national British income by 0.6% and 1.3%.[12] A 2018 analysis by Stanford University and Nottingham University economists estimated that uncertainty around Brexit reduced investment by businesses by approximately 6 percentage points and caused an employment reduction by 1.5 percentage points.[13] A number of studies found that Brexit-induced uncertainty about the UK's future trade policy reduced British international trade from June 2016 onwards.[14][15][16][17][18] A 2019 analysis found that British firms substantially increased offshoring to the European Union after the Brexit referendum, whereas European firms reduced new investments in the UK.[19][20]

Short-term macroeconomic forecasts by the Bank of England and other banks of what would happen immediately after the Brexit referendum were too pessimistic.[21] The assessments assumed that the referendum results would create greater uncertainty in markets and reduce consumer confidence more than it did.[21] A number of economists noted that short-term macroeconomic forecasts are generally considered unreliable, as they are something that academic economists do not do, but rather banks do.[22][23][21][24] Economists have compared short-term economic forecasts to weather forecasts whereas the long-term economic forecasts are akin to climate forecasts: the methodologies used in long-term forecasts are "well-established and robust".[21][22][24][25]

Long-term impact on the UK economy
There is overwhelming or near-unanimous agreement among economists that leaving the European Union will adversely affect the British economy in the medium- and long-term.[a][39] Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level.[40][30][31] 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK,[39] and a cost of between 1–10% of the UK's income per capita.[27] These estimates differ depending on whether the UK does a Hard or Soft Brexit.[27] In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario.[41][42]

According to most economists, EU membership has a strong positive effect on trade and, as a result, the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU.[43][44][45][46] According to a study by University of Cambridge economists, under a hard Brexit, whereby the UK reverts to WTO rules, one-third of UK exports to the EU would be tariff-free, one-quarter would face high trade barriers and other exports risk tariffs in the range of 1–10%.[47] A 2017 study found that "almost all UK regions are systematically more vulnerable to Brexit than regions in any other country."[48] A 2017 study examining the economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration" found that there would likely be "a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector."[49][27] It is unclear how changes in trade and foreign investment will interact with immigration, but these changes are likely to be important.[27]

No they wernt, they were predictions made by Osborne that would happen straight after a leave vote. When I have the will I willl dig out the links.

Heres one to be going on with.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564
https://www.politico.eu/article/accurate-prophecy-or-misleading-project-fear-how-ref

 

[Bunkermagnet]

It's done....get over it, and thats both sides. Trying to rub noses in it doesn't help.
I'm sick and tired of the war of words like little kids in a playground, every one afraid to actually take positive action.

 

[Foxholer]

No they wernt, they were predictions made by Osborne that would happen straight after a leave vote. When I have the will I willl dig out the links.

Heres one to be going on with.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

H'mm. I believe the first paragraph of that article correctly interprets his 'A vote to Leave ...' words!

That paragraph states...
'Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.'

Btw. I'm with Bunkermagnet - as I have been since the result!

 

[drdel]

The PM has declared that the additional NHS funding will be made law!- A careful read of the statement on the 'Bus' will shows it never said £350m would all be spent on the NHS or gave a timetable.

Macron has asked that the UK does not become an unfair competitor - France has never been 'unfair to the UK and broken EU rules to support its businesses - I might be wrong on that last bit !

 

[Foxholer]

The PM has declared that the additional NHS funding will be made law!...

Well, given the actual figures, that's pretty much already the case so no 'law' required!

From FactCheck:

'Total health spending in England was around £129 billion in 2018/19 and is expected to rise to nearly £134 billion by 2019/20, taking inflation into account'

'Last year the government announced that an additional £20.5 billion in real terms will be made available for the NHS in England by 2023/24—though it’s unclear how much money will be spent on health overall.'

 

[drdel]

Er...That/those scenario/s were predictions for after we had left. There has indeed been negative effects, though less than predicted - even considering the £4500 was an 'up to' figure grabbed by both sides as the 'real' figure (fear mongering by Osborne/Remain and ridiculed by Leave).

Here's a length summary (from Wikipedia) of the real effects since the referendum - not pretty reading imo. It's extremely rare to have what seems to be almost universal agreement from economists!

Immediate impact on the UK economy
According to one study, the referendum result had pushed up UK inflation by 1.7 percentage points in 2017, leading to an annual cost of £404 for the average British household.[7] Studies published in 2018 estimated that the economic costs of the Brexit vote were 2% of GDP,[8][9][10] or 2.5% of GDP.[11] According to a December 2017 Financial Times analysis, the Brexit referendum results had reduced national British income by 0.6% and 1.3%.[12] A 2018 analysis by Stanford University and Nottingham University economists estimated that uncertainty around Brexit reduced investment by businesses by approximately 6 percentage points and caused an employment reduction by 1.5 percentage points.[13] A number of studies found that Brexit-induced uncertainty about the UK's future trade policy reduced British international trade from June 2016 onwards.[14][15][16][17][18] A 2019 analysis found that British firms substantially increased offshoring to the European Union after the Brexit referendum, whereas European firms reduced new investments in the UK.[19][20]

Short-term macroeconomic forecasts by the Bank of England and other banks of what would happen immediately after the Brexit referendum were too pessimistic.[21] The assessments assumed that the referendum results would create greater uncertainty in markets and reduce consumer confidence more than it did.[21] A number of economists noted that short-term macroeconomic forecasts are generally considered unreliable, as they are something that academic economists do not do, but rather banks do.[22][23][21][24] Economists have compared short-term economic forecasts to weather forecasts whereas the long-term economic forecasts are akin to climate forecasts: the methodologies used in long-term forecasts are "well-established and robust".[21][22][24][25]

Long-term impact on the UK economy
There is overwhelming or near-unanimous agreement among economists that leaving the European Union will adversely affect the British economy in the medium- and long-term.[a][39] Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level.[40][30][31] 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK,[39] and a cost of between 1–10% of the UK's income per capita.[27] These estimates differ depending on whether the UK does a Hard or Soft Brexit.[27] In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario.[41][42]

According to most economists, EU membership has a strong positive effect on trade and, as a result, the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU.[43][44][45][46] According to a study by University of Cambridge economists, under a hard Brexit, whereby the UK reverts to WTO rules, one-third of UK exports to the EU would be tariff-free, one-quarter would face high trade barriers and other exports risk tariffs in the range of 1–10%.[47] A 2017 study found that "almost all UK regions are systematically more vulnerable to Brexit than regions in any other country."[48] A 2017 study examining the economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration" found that there would likely be "a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector."[49][27] It is unclear how changes in trade and foreign investment will interact with immigration, but these changes are likely to be important.[27]

You state "It's extremely rare to have what seems to be almost universal agreement from economists!"

Selected material I assume you recognise these articles are not referred/cross checked or pretend to be balanced so are entirely the author's opinion - I think a bit of research from recognised authoritative bodies would hold more weight. I could find other references that would provide countering views.

Its interesting to note that London Estate Agents report a backlog of buyers and banks declared international investment interest and commitments have already risen.

The stock market is up as is sterling

 

[Foxholer]

You state "It's extremely rare to have what seems to be almost universal agreement from economists!"

Selected material I assume you recognise these articles are not referred/cross checked or pretend to be balanced so are entirely the author's opinion - I think a bit of research from recognised authoritative bodies would hold more weight. I could find other references that would provide countering views.

Its interesting to note that London Estate Agents report a backlog of buyers and banks declared international investment interest and commitments have already risen.

The stock market is up as is sterling

Same applies to your post!

Has there ever (since the referendum) not been a backlog of buyers in London - even when the market has been described as 'depressed'?

Sterling is still below the pre-Referendum rates against both Euro and USD!

But Hey-Ho, at least Bozo now has a sufficient majority to 'Get Brexit Done', so needs to get on with it (plus the trade deal) and start applying all the benefits that 'independence' brings! Meanwhile Labour's inability to recognise and address the reasons for their loss will mean there's little effective opposition - not a situation I'm looking forward to! While somewhat right of centre, I simply don't trust Bozo's ability to 'run the country' very much, though I hope I'm wrong!

 

[Foxholer]

But it promised all that money to the nhs ????‍

No it didn't!

 

[SocketRocket]

Same applies to your post!

Has there ever (since the referendum) not been a backlog of buyers in London - even when the market has been described as 'depressed'?

Sterling is still below the pre-Referendum rates against both Euro and USD!

But Hey-Ho, at least Bozo now has a sufficient majority to 'Get Brexit Done', so needs to get on with it (plus the trade deal) and start applying all the benefits that 'independence' brings! Meanwhile Labour's inability to recognise and address the reasons for their loss will mean there's little effective opposition - not a situation I'm looking forward to! While somewhat right of centre, I simply don't trust Bozo's ability to 'run the country' very much, though I hope I'm wrong!

Didnt sterling take a referendum spike.

 

[robinthehood]

Didnt sterling take are referendum spike.

Do some looking for your self.

 

[robinthehood]

You state "It's extremely rare to have what seems to be almost universal agreement from economists!"

Selected material I assume you recognise these articles are not referred/cross checked or pretend to be balanced so are entirely the author's opinion - I think a bit of research from recognised authoritative bodies would hold more weight. I could find other references that would provide countering views.

Its interesting to note that London Estate Agents report a backlog of buyers and banks declared international investment interest and commitments have already risen.

The stock market is up as is sterling

Just getting back to somewhere near where we were is not really acceptable is it.