Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

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Rees-Mogg has likely given May her 'coup de grace' with his reported 1922 letter submisson today.
Will she even contest a leadership contest I wonder?

If she loses a vote of confidence I think she will go and not take part in the subsequent contest, but even if she wins the no confidence vote, when she fails to get her deal thru the Commons she will have to go at that point.
 
I'm up to page 223. A very equitable and fair result so far. I'm genuinely surprised, after all the talk of getting stuffed, how evenly balanced it is. No one is taking advantage either way.

Looking forward to getting to the Irish border bit...:rolleyes:

Well, its a "no" from me. To be honest I've not finished reading it, and I'm no expert anyway but...

The UK will not be able to do any trade negotiations with any organisations during the the transition period but can do them with individual countries. So that's the invite to join the Australasia trading bloc put back.

The UK will not ever be able to set tariffs with 3rd countries lower than those set by the EU. That's the competitive edge lost. Vassal state.

The UK financial institutions have to abide by ECB rules AND MUST open a subsidiary in the EU if they want to do business - note that doesn't include investment banks who will be free to invest in the EU - no RIT Sherlock. That's fine as any business has to abide by the rules in the country they are doing business in. Pity the same rules don't apply to EU financial institutions doing business in the UK.

As for the Irish border solution, i.e. tying all of the UK to the customs union so as there's no hard border with an indefinite term and no right to withdraw unilaterally. All the EU has to say is no, and the UK is tied to the EU forever. And that would be on vastly poorer terms than we have as a member state.

Either May, as a Remainer, wants to stay in the EU by the back door or she wants the deal to fail, and for the nation to vote again.
 
Well, its a "no" from me. To be honest I've not finished reading it, and I'm no expert anyway but...

The UK will not be able to do any trade negotiations with any organisations during the the transition period but can do them with individual countries. So that's the invite to join the Australasia trading bloc put back.

The UK will not ever be able to set tariffs with 3rd countries lower than those set by the EU. That's the competitive edge lost. Vassal state.

The UK financial institutions have to abide by ECB rules AND MUST open a subsidiary in the EU if they want to do business - note that doesn't include investment banks who will be free to invest in the EU - no RIT Sherlock. That's fine as any business has to abide by the rules in the country they are doing business in. Pity the same rules don't apply to EU financial institutions doing business in the UK.

As for the Irish border solution, i.e. tying all of the UK to the customs union so as there's no hard border with an indefinite term and no right to withdraw unilaterally. All the EU has to say is no, and the UK is tied to the EU forever. And that would be on vastly poorer terms than we have as a member state.

Either May, as a Remainer, wants to stay in the EU by the back door or she wants the deal to fail, and for the nation to vote again.

Or she has got pretty much exactly the best deal that she could have negotiated given the red lines that she set down in her Lancaster House speech.

And so today we have the absurd and ludicrous situation of Rees-Mogg....and supporters of the deal telling us that it delivers what the public voted for, and opponents telling us that it doesn't deliver any of the important things the people voted for.

And it is bleedin' obvious why we have this absurdity - because the Leave campaign did not define precisely what a Leave vote would actually mean. There was no Leave manifesto. Because they couldn't agree what it would be - nothing to do with the cost of distributing a copy to every household.

We are now arguing about what Leave means...and only the British public known what they think it means.

And so...the conclusion is obvious. The government tells the electorate that this is the best Leave deal that is possible; that leaving is NOT what the snake-oil salesmen would have us believe - that it would most likely be catastrophic; and asks the electorate what it wants the government to do?
 
Or, because of her own red lines, gleefully broadcast to all and sundry prior to the negotiations starting. This was the best deal she was ever going to get. And a "No Deal" Brexit was ALWAYS the most likely outcome.

It's not always a grand conspiracy you know. Sometimes people really ARE that stupid.

Damn. Hogie beat me to it.... Not a proud day 😂
 
Either May, as a Remainer, wants to stay in the EU by the back door or she wants the deal to fail, and for the nation to vote again.

I think that's unfair on May. I think her intentions have been genuine, to find a deal that treads the line between satisfying the mandate to leave the institutions of the EU without causing too much disruption to our economy. This halfway house was never going to please many people though.

This is the time for a Brexiteer to step up (as should have been the case two and a half years ago) and show us the way. If their visions are achievable they will take the country with them.
 
Well, its a "no" from me. To be honest I've not finished reading it, and I'm no expert anyway but...

The UK will not be able to do any trade negotiations with any organisations during the the transition period but can do them with individual countries. So that's the invite to join the Australasia trading bloc put back.

The UK will not ever be able to set tariffs with 3rd countries lower than those set by the EU. That's the competitive edge lost. Vassal state.

The UK financial institutions have to abide by ECB rules AND MUST open a subsidiary in the EU if they want to do business - note that doesn't include investment banks who will be free to invest in the EU - no RIT Sherlock. That's fine as any business has to abide by the rules in the country they are doing business in. Pity the same rules don't apply to EU financial institutions doing business in the UK.

As for the Irish border solution, i.e. tying all of the UK to the customs union so as there's no hard border with an indefinite term and no right to withdraw unilaterally. All the EU has to say is no, and the UK is tied to the EU forever. And that would be on vastly poorer terms than we have as a member state.

Either May, as a Remainer, wants to stay in the EU by the back door or she wants the deal to fail, and for the nation to vote again.

Well I've tried to follow this most of the day and didn't hear any of this. If only the politicians could come out and explain it as well as this then we wouldn't be in the bluddy dark all the time.
 
I accept he's entitled to his opinion but why should I respect it if I think he's wrong?
There's a distinct difference between respecting an opinion and disagreeing with it! If you can't recognise that difference, then I'd respectfully suggest you stop posting in this thread!

Btw (<suck-eggs mode>). In a properly informed discussion, it's often simply a matter of the different 'weights' (levels of importance) different posters assign to the supposed benefits or disadvantages of remaining/leaving that makes someone's opinion differ from another's! (<end suck-eggs mode>)
 
Or, because of her own red lines, gleefully broadcast to all and sundry prior to the negotiations starting. This was the best deal she was ever going to get. And a "No Deal" Brexit was ALWAYS the most likely outcome.

It's not always a grand conspiracy you know. Sometimes people really ARE that stupid.

Damn. Hogie beat me to it.... Not a proud day 😂

No matter. The great delusion will continue to be perpetuated by those too stubborn, arrogant or embarrassed to admit they were wrong or that they have been being economical with the truth - and they will continue to insistent that - even in the context of May's Red Lines - there is a better deal out there.

If there is then why are Dave Davis and the rest of them not plastering it all over the place - telling us why it is so much better than the deal that May has agreed. And this is not even a 'deal' - it's just the Exit Agreement. The deal on future trade is ( as I understand it) at present no more than a framework approach amounting to all of seven pages.
 
I think that's unfair on May. I think her intentions have been genuine, to find a deal that treads the line between satisfying the mandate to leave the institutions of the EU without causing too much disruption to our economy. This halfway house was never going to please many people though.

This is the time for a Brexiteer to step up (as should have been the case two and a half years ago) and show us the way. If their visions are achievable they will take the country with them.

You are right - they should be showing us what they've got as an alternative. But hold on. Johnson, Raab, Davis and Fox have been at the heart of the negotiations...
 
I think that's unfair on May. I think her intentions have been genuine, to find a deal that treads the line between satisfying the mandate to leave the institutions of the EU without causing too much disruption to our economy. This halfway house was never going to please many people though.

This is the time for a Brexiteer to step up (as should have been the case two and a half years ago) and show us the way. If their visions are achievable they will take the country with them.
Absolutely! Someone who thinks Brexit means Brexit, that leaving the EU means actually leaving the EU, taking back control is, well, taking control back. Someone with a bit of backbone who would insist we discuss trade arrangements at the same time as the divorce arangements and Ireland border so that backstops would be unnecessary. Unfortunatly May does not have the backbone.
 
Where did you get the information regarding Hondas parts supply. My brother in law works for Honda in Swindon and collects parts for the production lines in a truck from a massive storage facility 20 miles away then delivers them to the factory. It may be true that they only have one hours supply of parts in the factory but they have a large amount near by. Honda are not stupid, they dont have a situation where a two hour delay on thr M5 stops their production lines.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...sing-dover-port-raises-fears-of-brexit-delays
 
No...a decent bunch working on an important service. Not making law, but carrying out what the elected official requires
Er....

Are they bureaucrats? Yes! Are they elected? No! Do they draft the bills that may become law? Yes! Do they have the (final) say on whether a 'law' that is formulated is implemented or not? No! And exactly the same applies to their European counterparts!
 
Absolutely! Someone who thinks Brexit means Brexit, that leaving the EU means actually leaving the EU, taking back control is, well, taking control back. Someone with a bit of backbone who would insist we discuss trade arrangements at the same time as the divorce arangements and Ireland border so that backstops would be unnecessary. Unfortunatly May does not have the backbone.

They all had the chance when Cameron stepped down - but they didn’t step up to the plate , the main guys in the Leave campaign when the time came showed zero bottle and backbone and hid away in the shadows. They all talked a good game , lots of noise from an empty vessel but when it was a chance to stand up and follow through - they bottled it and showed no backbone.

At least May stood up to be counted and has tried to do what she thinks is best for the country - all those pointing fingers at her in the cabinet and commons didn’t have the bottle.

If the deal isn’t good enough for them - well tough it’s their own fault for not being there to do the deal themselves.

The lot of them are spineless - the guy who was in charge of negotiating walks away because he didn’t like what he negotiated- do a better job then

People expected this to be easy , expected a clean break away - the reality is far from it , the UK is that ingrained in the EU it was always going to be messy but far too many didn’t care just because they could blurt out “Leave means Leave”

The vote was “ Leave yes or no” - there was no specifics , there was no “deal or no deal” - it was leave the EU and if this deal means we leave the EU then the vote is satisfied , if it’s not how people wanted to leave - tough deal with it because there was no deal on how we were leaving the EU when the vote started , idiots like Johnson didn’t have the foresight to actually have a plan in place - far too busy parading around on a bus.
 
I'll back SR on this one. Nissan is up here and there are companies all around it purely set up to hold stock and deliver in to it. Nissan likely hold very little on site but they will expect all of their suppliers to hold good amounts on their behalf. They will no doubt be telling them to hold more in the instance of a hard brexit.

Car companies are not nice to deal with. They are brutal and bullying and will put all of the burden on the supplier to sort this out.
 
That article by Lisa Carol is not a statement fron Honda UK, its an editorial. Honda do not have an hours supply of parts that rely on trucks coming in a convoy from Dover, if they did they would be subject to continual stoppages due to road conditions. I prefer to believe my BIL who works delivering components from their warehouses. Also, surely the problem with Honda would only occur if the UK authorities created slow border checks with these lorries, they would be coming into the uk not going out.
 
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They all had the chance when Cameron stepped down - but they didn’t step up to the plate , the main guys in the Leave campaign when the time came showed zero bottle and backbone and hid away in the shadows. They all talked a good game , lots of noise from an empty vessel but when it was a chance to stand up and follow through - they bottled it and showed no backbone.

At least May stood up to be counted and has tried to do what she thinks is best for the country - all those pointing fingers at her in the cabinet and commons didn’t have the bottle.

If the deal isn’t good enough for them - well tough it’s their own fault for not being there to do the deal themselves.

The lot of them are spineless - the guy who was in charge of negotiating walks away because he didn’t like what he negotiated- do a better job then

People expected this to be easy , expected a clean break away - the reality is far from it , the UK is that ingrained in the EU it was always going to be messy but far too many didn’t care just because they could blurt out “Leave means Leave”

The vote was “ Leave yes or no” - there was no specifics , there was no “deal or no deal” - it was leave the EU and if this deal means we leave the EU then the vote is satisfied , if it’s not how people wanted to leave - tough deal with it because there was no deal on how we were leaving the EU when the vote started , idiots like Johnson didn’t have the foresight to actually have a plan in place - far too busy parading around on a bus.

Gove and Johnson both stood for leader but neither got the number of MP's backing them that they required. Boris pulled out because his team told him the maths did not add up, Gove stayed and was humiliated. They both stood up but the MP's, not the electorate, knocked them back.

I wouldn't vote for either of them but it is not correct to say they did not stand up.
 
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