Hitdaball
Active member
Trying to negotiate a way to leave and being let down previously by the Tories not clubbing together is not ignoring the majority completely.
Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!
- Thread starter drdel
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Trying to negotiate a way to leave and being let down previously by the Tories not clubbing together is not ignoring the majority completely.
clubchamp98
Journeyman Pro
You missed out the fact that the 48% were on the losing side.
We are in this mess because TM tried to please both sides.
The majority of voters don’t vote for the party in government under FPTP should we keep voting until we get 51%.
If you have a referendum some voters have to lose . Winning and losing isn’t understood properly these days.
No deal unfortunately seems to be on the cards as the EU won’t reopen negotiations and MPs won’t vote for TM deal.
So imo it’s no deal or remain in a GE.
I can’t see any other outcome.
Hitdaball
Active member
Let’s take a stab at the EU tax avoidance directive that comes into effect in 2020. Who do we think would lose from that- the working/middle class or those like JRM with a £50m inherited fortune. ?
Leftie
Tour Winner
A question that has been asked many times on here and so far not one reasoned reply.
Basically, it boils down to the fact that nobody knows what the future will bring - whichever side of the fence you sit.
Hitdaball
Active member
Politics should always try to please both sides, hence the prevalence for centre ground politics over many years which we now seem to be losing over a single issue.
Gaining the support of just over half a population and ignoring the rest is very dangerous and divisive by its nature.
Hitdaball
Active member
Let’s take a stab at the EU tax avoidance directive that comes into effect in 2020. Who do we think would lose from that- the working/middle class or those like JRM with a £50m inherited fortune. ?
Let’s start here then Leftie. Do you agree we should have Tax avoidance regulation strengthened and on balance do you think the EU or the Tories are more likely to do so? And do you think that stopping such laws coming into force has any impact on those politicians and money men pursuing Brexit at any cost?
I’ll give you a starter for 10
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/p...-as-eu-tax-avoidance-legislation-looms/03/09/
clubchamp98
Journeyman Pro
Absolutely agree with this .
I am 61 now ,paid my taxes in for 42yrs and this is the first chance I have had to cast a vote on the EU.
yes I agree with you .
But not leaving will cause more harm to our politics.
But if you don’t like the answer don’t ask the question, but Cameron asked and 52% said we want to leave.
Hitdaball
Active member
But not leaving will cause more harm to our politics....
I agree with that , it pains me but I agree. That’s doesn’t mean we have to go nuclear.
I agree with that , it pains me but I agree. That’s doesn’t mean we have to go nuclear.
woody69
Journeyman Pro
Yes.
The EU have helped clean up our air quality, improved our beaches and is currently investing millions to improve the quality of life under the LIFE programme
Standards have improved, so will at the very least be maintained. A trade deal with the US as an example is likely to see a drop in standards
There is certainly work to be done to tackle inequality between the rich and the poor, but hopefully the EU tax avoidance directive will start to address that
In terms of economically, I can't see a scenario that makes the UK economically better off in the short to medium term by leaving. In the long term - 20 years, say - we can't be certain of anything, and probably couldn't attribute it in any case.
From my point of view, when we leave the EU, especially, but not exclusively, if we do so without a deal, the costs of trade between the UK and the EU will increase. Whether it's through tariffs, non-tariff barriers, or simple red tape, costs will rise. That in itself will reduce profits, business activity growth and national economic growth below the level it would otherwise have been. I can't see any alternative to that logic.
Furthermore, the UK is likely to come under pressure in those industries - especially financial services - where the EU would like to bring activity more 'in house' than it would become. Plus, the increased costs of doing business with the EU from outside will give companies within the EU a competitive advantage they do not currently enjoy, thereby reducing the amount and profitability of the UK firms. Again, this may be as much a brake on growth rather than a reduction in current levels, but the effect is still accurately described as being 'worse off' after Brexit. Also again, I can't see a flaw in the logic.
We are told that the ability to sign our own trade deals will more than compensate for the damage to our trade with the EU, but this ignores the trade deals we have already signed as members of the EU, for which our greatest stated hope is to maintain the current terms - something that Japan, for one, has said isn't going to happen. We are asking, as a 66 million consumer country, for the same terms as were agreed with a 450 million consumer bloc. In some cases, we aren't going to get it.
So to America, and Trump's wonderful deal. (Let's leave aside the fact that Trump's idea of a good trade deal is to end up in a better financial position then when it starts, and that the UK currently has a surplus in its trade with the US. ) This is where the geography comes in. The gravity model of international trade is established, remarkably robust, and common sensical: the closer you are to your trading partner, the more trade you are going to do. We are 25 miles from the EU and 3500 from the US. Yes, there is scope to increase trade with the US, but there is no economic model which suggests that the increase could come anywhere near compensating for the damage to trade with the EU, let alone leave us better off.
I am absolutely open to an economic argument that can refute those points. If the only response is that we 'don't know' because anything can happen, then fine, but 'anything' can be bad, just as much as it can be good, and it isn't going to move the median position based on sound economic logic wherein the UK suffers, and for a long time.
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Taz
Journeyman Pro
when it's your only option other than remain I see no other option.
clubchamp98
Journeyman Pro
Unfortunately our incompetent MPs havnt given us a choice it’s no deal or remain imo.
Foxholer
Blackballed
He doesn't have to BE impartial!
He just has to ACT impartially in his rile as Speaker!
He wouldn't be in politics if he really was impartial
While my view is that the only way Brexit will happen is via the No Deal clause of Article 50, I find it obscene that BoJo (perhaps Bozo would be a better abbreviation!) has acted the way he has wrt 'dissenters' in his party. Reading her tweet and resignation letter, that appears, to me, to be the main reason she resigned from Cabinet - and the Party!
Foxholer
Blackballed
To quote Mr Spock (again)....That is illogical!
However...Consensus COULD perhaps be achieved by actually leaving and negotiating suitable arrangements that would keep the benefits (the one that the vast majority can agree on) of being a member - like free trade, co-ordination of standards and research, intelligence/security etc without the perceived shackles of freedom of movement and subordination of laws and policies. That COULD happen as part of a deal, though I hold little confidence that will be the case. It could also happen by negotiation in the future - how far being dependent on the power of egos (in the RU) and how the economies of remaining members fare in the next couple of years - or maybe less.
drdel
Tour Rookie
If you have a look at what Monnet & Schuman said in 1950 you'll get a pretty good idea. Basically they said if we do little changes at a time the countries and their population won't notice and we can get from a Coal & Steel alliance for France and Germany to a European fully Federal state and that's exactly what has been happening.
Beezerk
Money List Winner
Just reading that France are going to vote against another Brexit extension 
drdel
Tour Rookie
Just reading that France are going to vote against another Brexit extension
Aye and Macron himself is keeping quiet, A few Germans are also suggesting that nowt has changed so what's the point of further time.
Taz
Journeyman Pro
If that is the case then it really is no deal or remain and bring on the GE.
Taz
Journeyman Pro
AR to stand as a n independent at the next GE, but not at her current constituency !
If that is the case then Boris will be grinning. What do Labour, Lib Dems etc do about an election request at that point? The reason for objecting disappears.Just reading that France are going to vote against another Brexit extension
Blimey politics is moving quickly right now.
Mudball
Assistant Pro
Or another ref?
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