Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Hobbit]

Project fear ..! Put it away, the EC won’t let their economy tank.

The only non-fact in there is "chickens come home to roost."

So how does the EU stop those chickens coming home to roost? That's covered in the very next paragraph ----- but you labelled it Project Fear rather than see both sides of the post. You're right, the EU not so much won't let it happen, they can't let it happen.

But taking it a little further, who pays for the next round of EU QE? The EU(ECB), pretty much like every other 'country,' borrows money on the global money markets. But who services that debt? Where does the EU get their money from to service the debt? Greece? Spain? Italy?

 

[SocketRocket]

I’m just making the point to those who don’t seem to actually understand that the gov can change their mind if they see fit because it’s not legally binding and never was.

If it’s correct or not to do so is a debate for another time but for drive4show and socket to suggest to don’t understand because once you have voted they HAVE to put it though is again WRONG

If it’s not legally binding then they don’t have to do anything if they don’t want to.

Just pointing out some facts to 2 people who like to try to talk down to me because they can’t seem to grasp that whilst it may morally be wrong to change the outcome of the vote the gov can do whatever they like here.

Once again

Not legally binding.

I hope the understood and kept up 👌

You are speaking in ignorance. Try reading up on what's currently law rather than spouting off things you half understand.

We had a referendum. There was then a bill,passed through the House of Commons and House of Lords that allowed article 50 to be started, this was the Europeian Union Withdraw Act, it was passed by a large majority and given Royal Ascent that enshrined it in law.
You may recall how Gina Millar stopped the Government enacting it by Royal Perogative in a High Court Case that insisted there must be a meaningful vote in both houses.

It ceased to be non binding at this stage. Later there was a General Election where both major parties said they would honour thr result of the referendum. To suggest the current position to leave the EU is not binding is balderdash. The government can of course follow the correct procedures to change that law if it can be voted through but that's a different matter.

 

[harpo_72]

The only non-fact in there is "chickens come home to roost."

So how does the EU stop those chickens coming home to roost? That's covered in the very next paragraph ----- but you labelled it Project Fear rather than see both sides of the post. You're right, the EU not so much won't let it happen, they can't let it happen.

But taking it a little further, who pays for the next round of EU QE? The EU(ECB), pretty much like every other 'country,' borrows money on the global money markets. But who services that debt? Where does the EU get their money from to service the debt? Greece? Spain? Italy?

Think they will sell Greece to the Chinese. 😂

 

[Foxholer]

I wouldn’t disagree that short term there will be an impact, however it removes the bigger issues that have been cited. Short term pain for long term gain if you like. Given that Hammond is a Remainer, I’m not surprised that he highlights the short term over the long term; it suits his real agenda.

Hang on! You've got his reasoning for being a Remainer and the risks/benefits the wrong way around!

He's a Remainer because (not because he's a Remainer), in his view, there is little to no real long term economic gain for the UK from Brexit. Indeed, there's actually likely to be long term loss as well - even with the 'additional freedom' that negotiating separate deals might bring! I've actually heard him say that - or at least words to that effect! So purely on a risks/benefits basis, he's a Remainer. Not the other way around. To put it more succinctly, 'Why do you think he's a Remainer?'!

I believe YOU have been convinced that the 'non economic benefits', or the 'benefits' not directly attributable of leaving - the 'taking back control' (especially of immigration), not uprooting from Brussels to Strasbourg once a month etc. were worth that cost. Oh and the bollocks about how great the deal with the EU would be and the simplicity of negotiating it! And that, long term, there will be an economic 'gain' from leaving. That, of course, is your prerogative. I weighed up the pros and cons according to MY priorities and analysis and came to a different conclusion! Neither of us is wrong - we just assign different priorities to the (real and perceived) pros and cons of EU membership.

However, that doesn't mean that I want a 2nd Referendum. In fact, as it stands, I think that would be an obscene - and undemocratic - act! It's up to Parliament, having committed to implementing the result, to find a way to do so - even if that simply means 'No Deal'. The real 'deal' can be sorted out after UK is out of EU. And after all, any 'deal' is only about the withdrawal agreement, not all the myriad of other 'relationships' UK has with EU. I believe (fear even) that many folk think that the 'deal' covers the entire gamut of UK-EU relationship! That's simply not the case!

 

[Foxholer]

...
Not legally binding.
...

Twaddle!

I’m just making the point to those who don’t seem to actually understand that the gov can change their mind if they see fit...

Yes they can do that. But to implement THAT decision would require changes to, legally binding, Acts/Laws!

 

[Foxholer]

Indeed he is, but given his track record as Chancellor where I believe he hasn’t exactly distinguished himself, the fact that his predecessor has been proven inaccurate in his predictions and the general performance of Her Majesty’s government during the Brexit process I would hope you can understand my scepticism.

The bold bit is the all-important bit! I'm not as sceptical as you!

Btw. 'predecessor'? Osborne? Or do you actually mean the Governor of the BofE? 'Cohort' perhaps?

 

[Mudball]

The only non-fact in there is "chickens come home to roost."

So how does the EU stop those chickens coming home to roost? That's covered in the very next paragraph ----- but you labelled it Project Fear rather than see both sides of the post. You're right, the EU not so much won't let it happen, they can't let it happen.

But taking it a little further, who pays for the next round of EU QE? The EU(ECB), pretty much like every other 'country,' borrows money on the global money markets. But who services that debt? Where does the EU get their money from to service the debt? Greece? Spain? Italy?

Haven’t read the article but looks like more talk about EU going kaput ..

Imagine if we decide to Remain (against the will of 17m) and then EU goes down the pan. Will the 17m petition and march to get us out? Won’t be able to wipe that smug smile from Moggs face..

 

[Foxholer]

Think the Withdrawal Act made it legally binding, but that doesn't mean the law can't be changed. There'll have to be an amendment to it anyway as the Act has the date 29th March in it.

That Act states that a Minister can, by Regulation, change that date!
So no 'amendment' to the Act required, simply the issue of an amending Regulation.

 

[Foxholer]

Haven’t read the article but looks like more talk about EU going kaput ..

Imagine if we decide to Remain (against the will of 17m) and then EU goes down the pan. Will the 17m petition and march to get us out? Won’t be able to wipe that smug smile from Moggs face..

Subtle Leave propaganda perhaps?

EU doesn't 'go kaput', even when/if it screws up! It simply demands more money from its contributors! That's one of the arguments, that the Leave campaign made, that I 'agree' with!

 

[Crazyface]

I don't know one person who voted to stay in. Just where the hell are these people?

 

[Jamesbrown]

I don't know one person who voted to stay in. Just where the hell are these people?

I know a few. They’re either from down south, fascists, transgender, or get a little irate in car parks. Either way not quite sane.

 

[Hacker Khan]

I don't know one person who voted to stay in. Just where the hell are these people?

Depends on your social circles, I know very few people who voted to leave. Apart from my mother in law.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

I don't know one person who voted to stay in. Just where the hell are these people?

I know mostly remainers. Sad to say the demographic and reasoning of those I know who are leavers are cliched stereotypes so I will not go into details .

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I thi

I don't know one person who voted to stay in. Just where the hell are these people?

62% live in Scotland.

 

[drdel]

Quantative Easing possibly??

QE isn't borrowing in the conventional sense; it simply allows (in this case the ECB) to release funds to banks (a simple few computers keystrokes).

There is a debt, usually covered by sovereign bonds, which then gives rise to interest charges which become the burden on the specific bank/country. The EU won't go bust in the way a company or person may be declared bankrupt; all that happens is that as the debt risk rises the interest rates rise. The consequences are that a higher and higher proportion of the wealth a member state generates is swallowed by the interest. Obviously as with Greece and Italy and indeed France there's is less left in the normal budget and the burden on tax payers rises. This is the start of the downward spiral because even less is invested in wealth creation. Hence the Greek debacle where it has no chance of ever paying of any capital - its now borrowing to pay interest on interest; interest added to interest!!!

The EU have plans to amortise the ECB's huge historic QE 'debt' across all members so that it can carry out even more QE to pretend there is growth in the EU economy. If the UK remains in the EU there will be pressure for the UK (seen as wealthy by every other member) to take a higher proportion of the liability just as the our own 'books' are getting straight and austerity measures are ending. IMO if you add these potential debt liabilities to the rise in the EU budget (that will be coupled to a disproportionate rise in the UK's contribution) the result will heavily impact the UK's domestic budget. If we stay we will pay a very high price.

 

[patricks148]

I thi

62% live in Scotland.

i don't know a single leaver

 

[Crazyface]

"Friday: This was the day the UK was meant to leave the EU. The earliest that will now happen is 12 April. "

Eh? I thought March 29th was "LAW". Parliament hasn't changed this, so it's still our law isn't it?

 

[Lord Tyrion]

"Friday: This was the day the UK was meant to leave the EU. The earliest that will now happen is 12 April. "

Eh? I thought March 29th was "LAW". Parliament hasn't changed this, so it's still our law isn't it?

I believe it will be amended early this week. You are correct, it is law but the law will be tweaked. How it is tweaked presumably depends on whether TM gets her deal through. The next date can then be confirmed.

 

[Crazyface]

i don't know a single leaver

I think we can leave Scotland and N. Ireland out of all debates on this as both these countries want to stay in tied to the UK, as the UK give them money and also want to stay in the EU as, guess what?, they give them money. So they want it all ways, because they are getting it...all ways. It's just England getting sweet fanny adams and having to stump up readies for these countries and getting sweet fanny adams back. Hence why we voted OUT and luckilly, their are more people in England. Oh and Wales voted out as they get sweet fanny adams too, which is why they voted out as well. Why can you arguementative lot not see this?

 

[Deleted member 15344]

I know a few. They’re either from down south, fascists, transgender, or get a little irate in car parks. Either way not quite sane.

I think we can leave Scotland and N. Ireland out of all debates on this as both these countries want to stay in tied to the UK, as the UK give them money and also want to stay in the EU as, guess what?, they give them money. So they want it all ways, because they are getting it...all ways. It's just England getting sweet fanny adams and having to stump up readies for these countries and getting sweet fanny adams back. Hence why we voted OUT and luckilly, their are more people in England. Oh and Wales voted out as they get sweet fanny adams too, which is why they voted out as well. Why can you arguementative lot not see this?

I didn’t think this thread could get worse but well done 👏