Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

So this guy professes to know more than anyone else in the country about leaving the EU! In that case why didn't he read section two of the article where it states clearly that the leaving country and the EU will negotiate the relationship for the withdraw and a framework for it's future relationship.

Let's see what Para 2 says

'the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union'

And so if we leave with No Deal - and as we are told endlessly by the government and Brexiters 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' where does that leave us? We have not agreed a Deal and so nothing is agreed - so no framewok agreement. And even if a framework is agreed Article 50 para 2 tells us

'The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement'

Even if we have an agreed framework the treaties will cease to apply - because new agreements might not be in place. If there is No Deal then there can be no agreed framework and hence no basis for any new arrangements.

With No Deal we will leave the EU with all trade agreements with countries arranged by or through the EU null and void. We then have to make new arrangements - and these take time.

We leave and in WTO terms we will be a third country and WTO tariffs will apply.

Now UK can choose to not apply any tariffs on imports - but why would countries buy goods from UK with WTO tariffs slapped on and that make our costs uncompetitive - they could waive import tariffs on our exports - but why would another country waive tariffs on imports from UK - they have no agreement with the UK and they'd have to waive them similarly from all countries - and they won't. UK export goods will become a lot more expensive and a lot less attractive proposition.

BTW - the guy is actually saying what the majority of economists and 'folk who know about these things' are saying. It's actually more that there are a few Brexiters who claim to know better.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And I loved IDS comment about immigration when countering the recommendation from the CBI to allow immigration where the immigrant makes a nett contribution to the economy and scrap the 10,000 target. His solution was to allow immigration where there was a vacancy and there was no UK resident with the skills to fill the vacancy.

Now fruit-pickers - hmmm....what skills do they have that many unemployed Brits don't seem to have? Ah yes - an ability to pick fruit.

 

[IanM]

fruit-pickers - hmmm....what skills do they have that many unemployed Brits don't seem to have? Ah yes - an ability to pick fruit.

Funny how when talking about importing cheap European Labour, the British unemployed are all lazy fat scum.

When then same people talk about the nasty Tory PartyThatcher, the same "British Unemployed"...... are poor impoverished souls, damaged by capitalism!!


It's the same people talking about the same people........ hypocrisy of the highest order!

 

[SocketRocket]

And I loved IDS comment about immigration when countering the recommendation from the CBI to allow immigration where the immigrant makes a nett contribution to the economy and scrap the 10,000 target. His solution was to allow immigration where there was a vacancy and there was no UK resident with the skills to fill the vacancy.

Now fruit-pickers - hmmm....what skills do they have that many unemployed Brits don't seem to have? Ah yes - an ability to pick fruit.

Fruit pickers only need a seasonal work permit, they should not be given right to full residence, at the end of the season they go back home. In my opinion people that are unemployed with no useful skills should take this work. I prefer an immigration system that prioritises people with the skills we require, we don't need unskilled people that will need state support.

 

[SocketRocket]

Let's see what Para 2 says

'the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union'

And so if we leave with No Deal - and as we are told endlessly by the government and Brexiters 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' where does that leave us? We have not agreed a Deal and so nothing is agreed - so no framewok agreement. And even if a framework is agreed Article 50 para 2 tells us

'The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement'

Even if we have an agreed framework the treaties will cease to apply - because new agreements might not be in place. If there is No Deal then there can be no agreed framework and hence no basis for any new arrangements.

With No Deal we will leave the EU with all trade agreements with countries arranged by or through the EU null and void. We then have to make new arrangements - and these take time.

We leave and in WTO terms we will be a third country and WTO tariffs will apply.

Now UK can choose to not apply any tariffs on imports - but why would countries buy goods from UK with WTO tariffs slapped on and that make our costs uncompetitive - they could waive import tariffs on our exports - but why would another country waive tariffs on imports from UK - they have no agreement with the UK and they'd have to waive them similarly from all countries - and they won't. UK export goods will become a lot more expensive and a lot less attractive proposition.

BTW - the guy is actually saying what the majority of economists and 'folk who know about these things' are saying. It's actually more that there are a few Brexiters who claim to know better.

It depends how you define 'No Deal' I think there would not be a situation where the UK and EU slam down their drawbridges and say 'up yours' to each other. Both parties have a lot to lose by doing this and a degree of pragmatism would take place. If there was no deal on free trade then I think there would be arrangements on other matters such as residential rights for each others citizens, air travel, medicines, security and many other matters. Be very clear, it is not in the interest of the EU for a complete break away by the UK just as it's not in the interest of the UK. I dont believe the EU will be prepared to inflict the damage to their trade and economy this would inflict. I may be wrong of course but I doubt it very much.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Fruit pickers only need a seasonal work permit, they should not be given right to full residence, at the end of the season they go back home. In my opinion people that are unemployed with no useful skills should take this work. I prefer an immigration system that prioritises people with the skills we require, we don't need unskilled people that will need state support.

All good. IDS plan will see immigration limited to those who have a skill that a vacancy here requires and that can't be filled locally - though not sure I've heard anyway actually say locally. But let's assume that an unemployed 'up north' with a skillset required 'down south' won't be required to move 'down south' - but who knows if it keeps immigration numbers down.

 

[USER1999]

There will not be a no deal exit. There will be a fudge, an extended transition period, a bit of hedging, faffing about, and a continuation of exactly the same as where we currently are. Life will go on, and both sides will claim victory. Move along, nothing to see.

And at the end of the transition? It will be declared a great success, and a new transition will be announced, but longer.

 

[MegaSteve]

There will not be a no deal exit. There will be a fudge, an extended transition period, a bit of hedging, faffing about, and a continuation of exactly the same as where we currently are. Life will go on, and both sides will claim victory. Move along, nothing to see.

And at the end of the transition? It will be declared a great success, and a new transition will be announced, but longer.

Gosh... You know how to cheer folk up of a Friday evening...

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

It depends how you define 'No Deal' I think there would not be a situation where the UK and EU slam down their drawbridges and say 'up yours' to each other. Both parties have a lot to lose by doing this and a degree of pragmatism would take place. If there was no deal on free trade then I think there would be arrangements on other matters such as residential rights for each others citizens, air travel, medicines, security and many other matters. Be very clear, it is not in the interest of the EU for a complete break away by the UK just as it's not in the interest of the UK. I dont believe the EU will be prepared to inflict the damage to their trade and economy this would inflict. I may be wrong of course but I doubt it very much.

WTO Rules is WTO rules. And Article 50 says that ALL treaties and agreements END when we leave on 29th March 2019 - that's ALL treaties and agreements. And if we leave with No Deal then that is where we will be - a third country trading under WTO rules - with no agreements in place with the EU of any sort - and working like billy-o to come to trade agreements with other countries as we have lost all of these also.

And so for some period after the 29th March, WTO tariffs will apply to exports from the UK. And when countries or companies in countries are placing orders in Feb and March for deliveries in April - will they be ordering the UK product that will inevitably now have WTO tariffs applied and will therefore be more expensive. Because we are the UK might not actually hold much store - and so whilst the world waits for the UK to agree trade deals with each country we lose trade. Yes - UK might well offer the EU's trade, tariff and adjusted quotas schedule to all prospective trade partners - but every country in the World will have gripes with the EU schedule, and might well want to have some things changed in it before agreeing it with the UK. That all takes time and meanwhile we lose trade - and loss of trade means loss of jobs and businesses folding.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/no-deal-the-wto-option/

Of course it might all be very different.

And btw - No it doesn't depend upon how you define No Deal - because every Leave voters knows EXACTLY what No Deal means - and therefore it must already be defined and fully understood.

 

[SocketRocket]

All good. IDS plan will see immigration limited to those who have a skill that a vacancy here requires and that can't be filled locally - though not sure I've heard anyway actually say locally. But let's assume that an unemployed 'up north' with a skillset required 'down south' won't be required to move 'down south' - but who knows if it keeps immigration numbers down.

That's never been the case so why should it be now? I guess you dont agree with this system though as it's not favoring the EU.

 

[drdel]

All good. IDS plan will see immigration limited to those who have a skill that a vacancy here requires and that can't be filled locally - though not sure I've heard anyway actually say locally. But let's assume that an unemployed 'up north' with a skillset required 'down south' won't be required to move 'down south' - but who knows if it keeps immigration numbers down.

Australia seems to manage a very similar system pretty well.

 

[SocketRocket]

Australia seems to manage a very similar system pretty well.

Yes and most other countries but it's no good speaking logic to SILH. Everything EU = red tint filter on; Everything UK = filter off.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Yes and most other countries but it's no good speaking logic to SILH. Everything EU = red tint filter on; Everything UK = filter off.

What about UK going to WTO rules as a third country on March 29th off the back of a No Deal.

Sorry of course - it depends which No Deal we are talking about. Rather puts in doubt the clarity and certainty over leaving that I am told all leavers have - especially leaving with No Deal.

Were we told that ALL treaties with the EU - of every nature - would have ended when we wake up on 30th March - and that there would be NONE in place to replace them; and did we have explained to us and all actually understand what that meant for our trade and all other dealing with the EU, and ALL our trade arrangements with non-EU countries that were based upon us being in the EU. Did we all really know?

And did we all understand what being a third country means in WTO terms - and that our status would change to that under WTO rules from that which we have now? Did we know. Of course we did. It was obvious.

We all knew all that I suppose - we all knew the implications and ramifications for March 30th and the short to medium term thereafter. We knew all of this, but it didn't really matter anyway because we were taking back control - regaining our (never lost) sovereignty - and most importantly - because we know this through polls - we could decide who we let in and when. And we'd all feel the better for it.

Well I never knew.

 

[SocketRocket]

What about UK going to WTO rules as a third country on March 29th off the back of a No Deal.

Sorry of course - it depends which No Deal we are talking about. Rather puts in doubt the clarity and certainty over leaving that I am told all leavers have - especially leaving with No Deal.

Were we told that ALL treaties with the EU - of every nature - would have ended when we wake up on 30th March - and that there would be NONE in place to replace them; and did we have explained to us and all actually understand what that meant for our trade and all other dealing with the EU, and ALL our trade arrangements with non-EU countries that were based upon us being in the EU. Did we all really know?

And did we all understand what being a third country means in WTO terms - and that our status would change to that under WTO rules from that which we have now? Did we know. Of course we did. It was obvious.

We all knew all that I suppose - we all knew the implications and ramifications for March 30th and the short to medium term thereafter. We knew all of this, but it didn't really matter anyway because we were taking back control - regaining our (never lost) sovereignty - and most importantly - because we know this through polls - we could decide who we let in and when. And we'd all feel the better for it.

Well I never knew.

Pleased for your enlightenment

 

[chrisd]

Well I never knew.

Well we all did 👍

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Well we all did 👍

Sure - so perhaps you'll explain to this Remain thicko what will actually happen on 30th March if there is No Deal, given Article 50 tells us very clearly and explicitly that all deals of every sort will be null and void - and also explain why very experienced international trade deal-making businessmen are wrong.

 

[Old Skier]

very experienced international trade deal-making businessmen are wrong.

There have been very experienced international deal-makers who say the exact opposite to those that you have quoted. You as the glass half empty merchant choose to accept the negative while the half full ones choose the positive but as always NOBODY KNOWS so stop pretending otherwise.

 

[MegaSteve]

Whatever I want I simply do not believe there'll be a 'no deal' outcome...
Irrespective of what so called 'experts' are voicing as OPINIONS...

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Whatever I want I simply do not believe there'll be a 'no deal' outcome...
Irrespective of what so called 'experts' are voicing as OPINIONS...

Actually sounds like the Chequers proposal may be getting some degree of approval within in the EU27 - albeit requiring UK to concede around ending of freedom of movement. And therein lies the rub...do I hear the ERG Moggies sharpening their claws...?

And if what is agreed with the EU is knocked back then we are back to No Deal.

 

[MegaSteve]

Actually sounds like the Chequers proposal may be getting some degree of approval within in the EU27 - albeit requiring UK to concede around ending of freedom of movement. .

As blunt as I am with regard Brussels I am more than realistic that concessions of some level would be part 'n parcel...
And, I am fairly confident that reflects the feelings of the vast majority of leavers...