Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Hobbit]

I'm curious about Varadkar's tactics.

I can see that he wants to cosy up to Juncker et al in the hope of getting more cash or will it be loans which are already pretty high. However it is his citizens and small businesses that will feel the brunt of a dislocation with the UK. How does he propose to get this cash (when or if it ever comes) to these families/small enterprises quickly. The UK has always played a pretty straight back with the Republic so I'd have thought he'd want to play a careful long game. If the UK starts to adjust corporation tax and import duties to become attractive to RoW I could see Ireland being one of the first casualties. Does he want to keep operating under the UK's defence capabilities?

Perhaps he's just in it for himself and wants to get on the EU gravy train by being a good boy. I've a feeling he may be backing the wrong horse (mind you the racing has stopped at the moment because of equine flu) especially if the EU changes it base language from English as Juncker has wanted for some years he may feel an outsider / outpost.

I'd guess its about trade. Ireland's biggest trading partner is the UK. He won't want Irish goods to face tariffs/checks, including checks on goods travelling by road through the Uk to the EU.

As for his popularity at home; I'm not sure he's that popular. Maybe he's lining himself up for his next job as EU commissioner.

 

[Taz]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...rs-terms-for-backing-may-on-brexit?CMP=twt_gu

 

[Hacker Khan]

I'm curious about Varadkar's tactics.

I can see that he wants to cosy up to Juncker et al in the hope of getting more cash or will it be loans which are already pretty high. However it is his citizens and small businesses that will feel the brunt of a dislocation with the UK. How does he propose to get this cash (when or if it ever comes) to these families/small enterprises quickly. The UK has always played a pretty straight back with the Republic so I'd have thought he'd want to play a careful long game. If the UK starts to adjust corporation tax and import duties to become attractive to RoW I could see Ireland being one of the first casualties. Does he want to keep operating under the UK's defence capabilities?

Perhaps he's just in it for himself and wants to get on the EU gravy train by being a good boy. I've a feeling he may be backing the wrong horse (mind you the racing has stopped at the moment because of equine flu) especially if the EU changes it base language from English as Juncker has wanted for some years he may feel an outsider / outpost.

Or maybe he just doesn't want a return to the troubles on his border. Weirdly enough, despite the some of the right wing press looking for scapegoats when the land of milk and honey they promised is appearing harder to achieve than they said it would and honing on him, there are some politicians that are occasionally in it for the good of their nation and not just how they can line up their next job.

 

[SocketRocket]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...rs-terms-for-backing-may-on-brexit?CMP=twt_gu

So its his customs union that he can't explain, Single market which is also vague, workers rights aligned. No mention of free movement which you would imagine came part and parcel with the above.

So he is suggesting we leave but stay in then.

 

[SocketRocket]

Or maybe he just doesn't want a return to the troubles on his border. Weirdly enough, despite the some of the right wing press looking for scapegoats when the land of milk and honey they promised is appearing harder to achieve than they said it would and honing on him, there are some politicians that are occasionally in it for the good of their nation and not just how they can line up their next job.

Do you think anyone in our government wants a return to troubles on his or our border. Any return of terrorism will be for the terrorists political agenda, not the UK or ROI.

You really need to give up on the "Land of milk and honey" hacknied slight, it can just as easily be levelled at the EUs federal ambitions but sounds like a desperate crutch to prop a poor argument.

 

[Old Skier]

So its his customs union that he can't explain, Single market which is also vague, workers rights aligned. No mention of free movement which you would imagine came part and parcel with the above.

So he is suggesting we leave but stay in then.

He's also taken the EU negotiation method, take it and Labour will support it, anything else not supported, so back to square one right across the board.

 

[Sweep]

Kate Hoey seems to think that Varadkar’s tactics are aimed at trying to bring a one Ireland situation closer.

 

[Sweep]

Forget all this. Does anyone know if Bluewolf executed his plan and went home from work? 😀

 

[Old Skier]

Forget all this. Does anyone know if Bluewolf executed his plan and went home from work? 😀

Hopefully he's not still on the step, the weathers not great so I hope a coat was somewhere in the plan

 

[drdel]

Forget all this. Does anyone know if Bluewolf executed his plan and went home from work? 😀

He's in negotiations on his withdrawl with Blue Ridinghood.

 

[bluewolf]

Forget all this. Does anyone know if Bluewolf executed his plan and went home from work? 😀

No, I couldn't agree on a remuneration package for the day, so I threw a telly through the window, told my German boss that he should be grateful that he's allowed in the country as we won 2 world wars and one World Cup. Upset all our future customers by trying to appease a colleague who's only interested in his redundancy package. Then, in a fit of complete lack of self awareness, I tried to negotiate a pay rise before being sacked and losing my house.

Still, it'll all be better in 20 years eh? 😉

 

[Fade and Die]

Kate Hoey seems to think that Varadkar’s tactics are aimed at trying to bring a one Ireland situation closer.

I agree, also the increased use of the term “the island of Ireland.” Its all pushing for a United ireland.

 

[Fade and Die]

No, I couldn't agree on a remuneration package for the day, so I threw a telly through the window, told my German boss that he should be grateful that he's allowed in the country as we won 2 world wars and one World Cup. Upset all our future customers by trying to appease a colleague who's only interested in his redundancy package. Then, in a fit of complete lack of self awareness, I tried to negotiate a pay rise before being sacked and losing my house.

Still, it'll all be better in 20 years eh? 😉

I think you might be suffering from Stockholm Syndrome. 🤔

 

[Taz]

Dear Prime Minister,
Thank you for taking the time to meet last week to discuss the Brexit negotiation and our alternative approaches to finding a deal that can command support in Parliament and be negotiated with the EU.
There is, as was demonstrated last week, a clear majority in Parliament that no deal must now be taken off the table and that there can be no return to a hard border in Northern Ireland in any circumstance.
We recognise that your priority is now to seek legally binding changes to the backstop arrangements contained within the Withdrawal Agreement, as we discussed when we met.
However, without changes to your negotiating red lines, we do not believe that simply seeking modifications to the existing backstop terms is a credible or sufficient response either to the scale of your defeat last month in Parliament, or the need for a deal with the EU that can bring the country together and protect jobs.
As you have said many times before, the EU has been clear that any withdrawal agreement would need to include a backstop to guarantee no return to a hard border on the island of Ireland.
Labour has long argued that the Government should change its negotiating red lines and seek significant changes to the Political Declaration to provide clarity on our future relationship and deliver a closer economic relationship with the EU. That would also ensure that any backstop would be far less likely to be invoked.
The changes we would need to see include:

• A permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union. This would include alignment with the union customs code, a common external tariff and an agreement on commercial policy that includes a UK say on future EU trade deals. We believe that a customs union is necessary to deliver the frictionless trade that our businesses, workers and consumers need, and is the only viable way to ensure there is no hard border on the island of Ireland. As you are aware, a customs union is supported by most businesses and trade unions.
• Close alignment with the Single Market. This should be underpinned by shared institutions and obligations, with clear arrangements for dispute resolution.
• Dynamic alignment on rights and protections so that UK standards keep pace with evolving standards across Europe as a minimum, allowing the UK to lead the way.
• Clear commitments on participation in EU agencies and funding programmes, including in areas such as the environment, education, and industrial regulation.
• Unambiguous agreements on the detail of future security arrangements, including access to the European Arrest Warrant and vital shared databases.

We believe these negotiating objectives need to be enshrined in law before the UK leaves the EU to provide certainty for businesses and a clear framework for our future relationship.
We recognise that any negotiation with the EU will require flexibility and compromise. Our first priority must be a deal that is best for jobs, living standards, our communities, in the context of increased and more equitable investment across all regions and nations of the UK. That approach should guide how alignment with EU regulations is to be maintained in future, as well discussions on dispute resolution, the role of the ECJ, and competition and migration rules.
EU leaders have been clear that such changes to the Political Declaration and a closer relationship are possible if such a request is made by the UK government and if the current red lines change. We believe that a close economic relationship along these lines would make it far less likely that any backstop arrangements would ever be needed.
The Government’s failure to secure a deal that can command the support of Parliament means time has run out for the necessary preparation and for legislation to be finalised. Following last week’s rejection by the House of Commons of ‘no deal’, all necessary steps must be taken to avoid such an outcome.
My colleagues and I look forward to discussing these proposals with you further, in the constructive manner in which they are intended, with the aim of securing a sensible agreement that can win the support of parliament and bring the country together.
Yours sincerely,
Jeremy Corbyn MP
Leader of the Opposition

 

[Taz]

As Theresa May heads back to Brussels to find out if there’s a special place in hell for her too, it turns out that she has a deal with the devil to consider. Jeremy Corbyn has dramatically come off the fence overnight and given May five new Brexit demands as the price for backing her deal. Unlike the deliberately nebulous and unfulfillable (and unrememberable) six Brexit tests, these are serious suggestions which the Government could conceivably meet. But at what cost…
The five demands would create a Brexit essentially along the lines of ‘Norway Plus’ – staying in the single market and customs union. The first is predictably the demand for a “permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union” including the Common External Tariff and an “agreement on commercial policy that includes a UK say on future EU trade deals”. This is pure fantasy – the UK will end up like Turkey whose market access is bartered away by the EU in trade deals without Turkey getting reciprocal access in return. The worst possible outcome from Brexit…
Corbyn also calls for “close alignment with the Single Market” which is “underpinned by shared institutions and obligations” as well as “dynamic alignment on rights and protections”. So the UK remains part of the Single Market institutions and has to continue adopting new EU laws. Corbyn laughably claims this will “allow the UK to lead the way” – the reality will be the complete opposite. Brussels will continue to fax over new laws and the UK will have to adopt them all with no say…
The damage May would do to her own position by doing a deal with Corbyn which sells out on all her key Brexit pledges would be irreparable, but given her private opposition to no deal, she may feel that she has no choice as March 29th approaches. There is an argument that since these commitments would be in the non-binding political declaration on the future relationship, a future leader could come in and reverse them provided there is not the looming threat of a permanent backstop, this would undoubtedly be a highly fraught exercise.
This truly is a Faustian pact – May would finally get a deal through but condemn herself to eternal damnation in the eyes of her supporters…

 

[SocketRocket]

No, I couldn't agree on a remuneration package for the day, so I threw a telly through the window, told my German boss that he should be grateful that he's allowed in the country as we won 2 world wars and one World Cup. Upset all our future customers by trying to appease a colleague who's only interested in his redundancy package. Then, in a fit of complete lack of self awareness, I tried to negotiate a pay rise before being sacked and losing my house.

Still, it'll all be better in 20 years eh? 😉

Calm down, I've had worse days.

 

[bluewolf]

I think you might be suffering from Stockholm Syndrome. 🤔

And I fear you may be experiencing the effects of Sociophobia... 👍

 

[Foxholer]

So its his customs union that he can't explain, Single market which is also vague, workers rights aligned. No mention of free movement which you would imagine came part and parcel with the above.

So he is suggesting we leave but stay in then.

Seems to me he's wanting something that's 'Good for UK'! But I don't believe that, as written, it will be acceptable to anyone.

Freedom of Movement of People is one of the 4 Pillars of the Single Market. Unless that 'Freedom' is dropped from any deal, then I'm certain it would be unacceptable to the UK (team). If it is dropped, I'm certain that it would be unacceptable to the EU (team)! So an impasse there!

The issue of Bank Passporting needs to be clarified, but quite likely comes under the Single Market Freedom of Movement of Finance. However, the UK would need to be added to the list of those 'automatically' allowed - current (only) any EU or EEA member. Members of EEA also grant Freedom of Movement of People, so simply joining EEA would not solve UK's 'problem' about that.

Workers rights - all good as far as I'm concerned, though that also brings the ECJ back into the equation. I believe there are ways around that issue. Common Standards etc are a good (actually great) thing imo.

Overall though, I think it's fairly astute politics! He's changed from being 'anti' to being 'positive'. And May is likely to actually be wanting something along rather similar lines - though she has, understandably, kept quiet about it. If she now actually negotiates along Corbyn's lines, she looks even weaker than currently. If she doesn't (though adding adjustments to cover the deficiencies of the Corbyn 'demands') she's not really achieving anything!

However, I think the EU would/will remain intransigent! So the impasse will remain! It'll be down to the wire, and, almost certainly, beyond imo.

 

[Fade and Die]

And I fear you may be experiencing the effects of Sociophobia... 👍

Nah I’m very social. Now since taking your leave for a few days from this thread this morning you have returned twice already... are you suffering from Columbo syndrome?

 

[ColchesterFC]

It seems strange that the EU are saying that it is not possible to re-open negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement while at the same time Donald Tusk is saying that maybe Corbyn's plan "could be a way out of the current impasse". But Corbyn's plan would require negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement to be re-opened. So it seems that the Withdrawal Agreement can be renegotiated as long as it is in favour of what the EU wants.