Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Fade and Die]

My money is on a postponement of article 50, a general election and then we'll try again with hopefully a new lot of politicians running it. As for who that will be then chuff knows.

Do you honestly think anything would change with a different government? What really is Labours policy on the EU? What would be the Tories policy? Worst bunch of self serving half wits in living memory.

 

[chrisd]

Do you honestly think anything would change with a different government? What really is Labours policy on the EU? What would be the Tories policy? Worst bunch of self serving half wits in living memory.

Labour have no other agenda than to use the situation to gain power, they really dont care for the will of the people regarding the referendum - they are a bunch of chancers!

 

[ColchesterFC]

Labour have no other agenda than to use the situation to gain power, they really dont care for the will of the people regarding the referendum - they are a bunch of chancers!

There are suggestions that Labour will table a no confidence motion if May's deal is voted down next week. If the vote went against her she would then get to set the date of the general election. Brexiteers are pushing her to set a date in early April. Parliament would be dissolved in the run up to the election meaning that there would be no sitting MPs on 29th March when we're due to leave the EU so there is nothing that they could do to prevent a no deal exit and we'd leave on that date by default. Interesting times ahead.

 

[chrisd]

There are suggestions that Labour will table a no confidence motion if May's deal is voted down next week. If the vote went against her she would then get to set the date of the general election. Brexiteers are pushing her to set a date in early April. Parliament would be dissolved in the run up to the election meaning that there would be no sitting MPs on 29th March when we're due to leave the EU so there is nothing that they could do to prevent a no deal exit and we'd leave on that date by default. Interesting times ahead.

Could do that I guess, not sure that she'd stand for PM in that instance

 

[ColchesterFC]

Could do that I guess, not sure that she'd stand for PM in that instance

I'm not sure that she would actually do it and force through a no deal Brexit but is there any chance that just the threat of it would be enough for her to get backing for her deal? It could be leaked that if her deal gets voted down and there is a vote of no confidence in the government she would set the election date for 2nd April effectively guaranteeing a no deal Brexit. Would the threat of that be enough for some of those opposing her deal to change their minds and actually support her in the vote?

 

[SocketRocket]

Would a vote of no confidence win, turkeys don't vote for christmas and I think the DUP has said they would not support it.

 

[chrisd]

I'm not sure that she would actually do it and force through a no deal Brexit but is there any chance that just the threat of it would be enough for her to get backing for her deal? It could be leaked that if her deal gets voted down and there is a vote of no confidence in the government she would set the election date for 2nd April effectively guaranteeing a no deal Brexit. Would the threat of that be enough for some of those opposing her deal to change their minds and actually support her in the vote?

I'm thinking that if she feels she'll lose she may abandon leaving for the short term

 

[SocketRocket]

...that'll be the booklet that the Leave campaign told voters to ignore as all the warnings, downsides and inevitabilities in it were all just one Great Big Project Fear. Yes - thought that that was the one.

I note that, in respect of leaving the EU, the booklet actually says 'The Government judges it could result in 10 years or more of uncertainty as the UK unpicks our relationship with the EU and renegotiates new arrangements with the EU and over 50 other countries around the world. Some argue that we could strike a good deal quickly with the EU because they want to keep access to our market. But the Government’s judgement is that it would be much harder than that. A more limited trade deal with the EU would give the UK less access to the Single Market than we have now'

So when we look back at what the official government position on Brexit was the above indicates that the expectation was clearly set out that the UK would negotiate a deal with the EU that gave access to the Single Market. And I doubt we will get that under No Deal

Thats it the Project fear booklet, you got it. If you recall the booklet also promised to carry out the result of the referendum if the result was to leave.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Would a vote of no confidence win, turkeys don't vote for christmas and I think the DUP has said they would not support it.

At the minute there are predicted to be more than a dozen Tory MPs that would back the vote of no confidence. Whether they would actually go through with it when push comes to shove is the big question.

 

[SocketRocket]

Genuine question to the educated few on here.
How are British Farmers going to operate successfully after a No Deal Brexit?

They'll have no EU subsidies. They'll have a huge new competitor on their doorstep. They won't be able to compete financially due to the harsher growing conditions in the U.K.

All I can foresee is a spiralling cycle of government subsidies allowing them to compete, or a huge number going to the wall as they will never be able to compete.

I trust there's someone on here who can show me how this will be solved without the need to significantly increase food prices.

I believe we will continue with matched subsidies, as a net contributor to the EU we currently fund them anyway. What is this huge new competitor on the doorstep? If the EU apply tariffs to UK farming produce then we could encourage more domestic sales to reduce our imports while discouraging imports of EU produce on a like for like basis. I am not sure about the UK having harsher growing conditions, our climate is fairly temperate for growing. No doubt there will be hurdles to climb but we are an ingenious nation and will get over them.

 

[SocketRocket]

At the minute there are predicted to be more than a dozen Tory MPs that would back the vote of no confidence. Whether they would actually go through with it when push comes to shove is the big question.

Could you really see them voting in a manner that would give Labour and Corbyn the chance of 5 years in government? Im sure she would scrape through a confidence vote.

 

[SocketRocket]

One thing Brexit has highlighted to me is a growing realisation of how bad these people are that represent us in Parliament, both in the Commons and the House of Lords. They really are a bunch of self gratifying wasters and this runs through all the political parties. They are really unfit for purpose and incapable of representing the general public. Before Doon jumps in this is particularly true of SNP.

The complete system needs some radical reform but the system is so loaded its almost impossible for the electorate to get any change, I think we need some candidates coming forward who would be determined to push through radical reform such that we get real representation through less party politics and a breakdown of the childish baying mob mindset. I dont have the answers to exactly how this could be achieved but for the security of the people we should change the locks next time there is a parliamentary recess. How worse could it be?

 

[Tashyboy]

One thing Brexit has highlighted to me is a growing realisation of how bad these people are that represent us in Parliament, both in the Commons and the House of Lords. They really are a bunch of self gratifying wasters and this runs through all the political parties. They are really unfit for purpose and incapable of representing the general public. Before Doon jumps in this is particularly true of SNP.

The complete system need some radical reform but the system is so loaded its almost impossible for the electorate to get any change, I think we need some candidates coming forward who would be determined to push through radical reform such that we get real representation through less party politics and a breakdown of the childish baying mob mindset. I dont have the answers to exactly how this could be achieved but for the security of the people we should change the locks next time there is a parliamentary recession. How worse could it be?

Anna Sourbry is a classic example of a "self gratifying waster" . Her constituents voted to leave Europe. The People of this country voted to leave. But she sees fit to bang the pro EU drum. If she believes in it that strongly, she should of resigned as an MP. What was the point of having a vote if your MP disregards the will of there constituents.

 

[bluewolf]

I believe we will continue with matched subsidies, as a net contributor to the EU we currently fund them anyway. What is this huge new competitor on the doorstep? If the EU apply tariffs to UK farming produce then we could encourage more domestic sales to reduce our imports while discouraging imports of EU produce on a like for like basis. I am not sure about the UK having harsher growing conditions, our climate is fairly temperate for growing. No doubt there will be hurdles to climb but we are an ingenious nation and will get over them.

Unfortunately, this answer, along with LT's answer earlier misses some rather important facts.

The huge agri-conglomerate EU is now a competitor, whereby it was a Partner.

Once we start factoring in subsidies to a free market economy, we'll never be able to stop. The Farmers will never be able to make their farms profitable as the cost of their products will be kept artificially low.

And the comparison to New Zealand is unfortunate. Before they went free market, they were in a Government backed, guaranteed price system whereby the Taxpayer effectively subsidised food production by allowing the Government to purchase all produce at a minimum price. Even if that minimum price was substantially higher (and it routinely was) than the market price. When they eventually dropped this policy, they were fortunate enough to have the worlds 2nd largest economy, coupled with the largest population effectively on their doorstep. China took everything they grew at a fair market price, allowing the NZ farms to invest in methods and machinery. We most certainly do not have this luxury. We'd be attempting to sell our produce into an already serviced market. We could only do this by reducing the price further, requiring more government subsidies. An ever spiralling debt cycle.

 

[SocketRocket]

Unfortunately, this answer, along with LT's answer earlier misses some rather important facts.

The huge agri-conglomerate EU is now a competitor, whereby it was a Partner.

Once we start factoring in subsidies to a free market economy, we'll never be able to stop. The Farmers will never be able to make their farms profitable as the cost of their products will be kept artificially low.

And the comparison to New Zealand is unfortunate. Before they went free market, they were in a Government backed, guaranteed price system whereby the Taxpayer effectively subsidised food production by allowing the Government to purchase all produce at a minimum price. Even if that minimum price was substantially higher (and it routinely was) than the market price. When they eventually dropped this policy, they were fortunate enough to have the worlds 2nd largest economy, coupled with the largest population effectively on their doorstep. China took everything they grew at a fair market price, allowing the NZ farms to invest in methods and machinery. We most certainly do not have this luxury. We'd be attempting to sell our produce into an already serviced market. We could only do this by reducing the price further, requiring more government subsidies. An ever spiralling debt cycle.

Hold on a minute. You were concerned Farmers would not get the current EU subsidies. I explained how this could still be possible. Maybe I have misunderstood you, if not please clarify.

 

[Hobbit]

Unfortunately, this answer, along with LT's answer earlier misses some rather important facts.

The huge agri-conglomerate EU is now a competitor, whereby it was a Partner.

Once we start factoring in subsidies to a free market economy, we'll never be able to stop. The Farmers will never be able to make their farms profitable as the cost of their products will be kept artificially low.

And the comparison to New Zealand is unfortunate. Before they went free market, they were in a Government backed, guaranteed price system whereby the Taxpayer effectively subsidised food production by allowing the Government to purchase all produce at a minimum price. Even if that minimum price was substantially higher (and it routinely was) than the market price. When they eventually dropped this policy, they were fortunate enough to have the worlds 2nd largest economy, coupled with the largest population effectively on their doorstep. China took everything they grew at a fair market price, allowing the NZ farms to invest in methods and machinery. We most certainly do not have this luxury. We'd be attempting to sell our produce into an already serviced market. We could only do this by reducing the price further, requiring more government subsidies. An ever spiralling debt cycle.

I'm a bit lost on the huge agri-conglomerate EU ever being a partner. I guess I'm missing your point...

To me, even UK farmers compete with each other, let alone those in France etc with UK farmers. And farmers in France, Netherlands, Germany compete internally as well as externally. They sell at the best price they can get - go along to any cattle market and you'll see it in practice. The only similarities are in the EU subsidies farmers receive.

Sorry, I'm lost, you'll have to explain that one to me.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Anna Sourbry is a classic example of a "self gratifying waster" . Her constituents voted to leave Europe. The People of this country voted to leave. But she sees fit to bang the pro EU drum. If she believes in it that strongly, she should of resigned as an MP. What was the point of having a vote if your MP disregards the will of there constituents.

See my earlier reply to SR who made the same ish point. She campaigned in the recent general election on a very remain campaign, everyone knew where she stood on the EU. And she got elected.

So to now change her stance would be silly. If her constituents, if which I am one, feel she does not represent their views then she will not be reelected. The leave vote was 55 to 45 in her constituency, so whilst there were obviously more leave voters, it was not a resounding mandate to leave.

Plus I think around 47% of people in Rees-Moggs constituency voted to stay and that does not seem to bother him.

 

[bluewolf]

I'm a bit lost on the huge agri-conglomerate EU ever being a partner. I guess I'm missing your point...

To me, even UK farmers compete with each other, let alone those in France etc with UK farmers. And farmers in France, Netherlands, Germany compete internally as well as externally. They sell at the best price they can get - go along to any cattle market and you'll see it in practice. The only similarities are in the EU subsidies farmers receive.

Sorry, I'm lost, you'll have to explain that one to me.

You're referring to "local" competition between businesses on a relatively equal footing. I.E, they have the same base rules/subsidies. Once we leave the EU without a Deal, then we are no longer working from the same base. We may choose to match previous subsidies, but we will be in competition with a much larger group. In order to compete, we will either have to increase subsidies, or improve efficiencies. We both know which will have to happen, especially in the short term.

The proof of this will only be evident in the years following a No Deal Brexit. If I'm wrong, and British Farming learns to trade globally with minimal Taxpayer input then I'll pop on here and apologise. If we end up in a cycle of never ending subsidies, or mass Farmer bankruptcies then I'll pop along and see if the discussion has recognised this. I'm sure we'll all still be here whinging about it.

 

[Hobbit]

You're referring to "local" competition between businesses on a relatively equal footing. I.E, they have the same base rules/subsidies. Once we leave the EU without a Deal, then we are no longer working from the same base. We may choose to match previous subsidies, but we will be in competition with a much larger group. In order to compete, we will either have to increase subsidies, or improve efficiencies. We both know which will have to happen, especially in the short term.

The proof of this will only be evident in the years following a No Deal Brexit. If I'm wrong, and British Farming learns to trade globally with minimal Taxpayer input then I'll pop on here and apologise. If we end up in a cycle of never ending subsidies, or mass Farmer bankruptcies then I'll pop along and see if the discussion has recognised this. I'm sure we'll all still be here whinging about it.

Same rules and subsidies but, for example, do you ever wonder why there's so much imported milk from Poland. Admittedly it probably doesn't keep you awake at night but the truth is the operating costs in most of eastern and Southern Europe are a lot lower than Northern Europe.

We are not partners in business, only in rules and subsidies. If you extend the argument beyond farming into the wider 'spend' of subsidies and start-up grants the UK isn't doing well out of areas of subsidies that many northern european countries think is flawed anyway. French farming is, in a lot of instances, a farce because of the inheritance laws in France. Its hugely inefficient and not cost effective but is supported by the more business orientated nations. There is no need to be efficient if someone is paying you to carry on as you are.

 

[bluewolf]

Same rules and subsidies but, for example, do you ever wonder why there's so much imported milk from Poland. Admittedly it probably doesn't keep you awake at night but the truth is the operating costs in most of eastern and Southern Europe are a lot lower than Northern Europe.

We are not partners in business, only in rules and subsidies. If you extend the argument beyond farming into the wider 'spend' of subsidies and start-up grants the UK isn't doing well out of areas of subsidies that many northern european countries think is flawed anyway. French farming is, in a lot of instances, a farce because of the inheritance laws in France. Its hugely inefficient and not cost effective but is supported by the more business orientated nations. There is no need to be efficient if someone is paying you to carry on as you are.

You're effectively proving the point I'm making. There are countries within the EU that can farm far more cheaply and efficiently than we can. Labour is cheaper. Their welfare standards aren't as rigorous.
The only way we'll be able to compete with them in the short/mid term is by matching or increasing the existing subsidies. This naive dream of weaning Farmers off subsidies will never happen. They'll go to the wall within 2 years. In order to compete we'll have to increase subsidies, especially in areas in which we are a net exporter.
Even the NFU, who represent an industry that largely voted for Brexit have stated that No Deal will be "Catastrophic".