Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[bluewolf]

So would I, but it's a question of how far you are prepared to push. The Germans, Dutch, Belgians and Irish etc might be a little miffed if by looking to take advantage it led to significant hit to their economies if there was a No Deal outcome.

I find your answer really interesting. It's the first time (I think) that I've read a post by a committed Leaver that recognises that the EU is in a slightly stronger bargaining position than the UK.

What worries me is that we are now reliant on the actions of others. If the EU decides to play hard ball then we would lose significantly more than they do. Yes, they would be punishing themselves, but we'd have an economy in the toilet. If that did happen then we would undoubtedly lose most of our financial sector to Europe.

All speculation obviously, and I'm sure someone will be along soon to tell me that I'm wrong/a coward/unable to speak Latin etc 😂

 

[SocketRocket]

I find your answer really interesting. It's the first time (I think) that I've read a post by a committed Leaver that recognises that the EU is in a slightly stronger bargaining position than the UK.

What worries me is that we are now reliant on the actions of others. If the EU decides to play hard ball then we would lose significantly more than they do. Yes, they would be punishing themselves, but we'd have an economy in the toilet. If that did happen then we would undoubtedly lose most of our financial sector to Europe.

All speculation obviously, and I'm sure someone will be along soon to tell me that I'm wrong/a coward/unable to speak Latin etc 😂

You are wrong but I put that down to your modus operandi, Et Al
.

 

[ColchesterFC]

I find your answer really interesting. It's the first time (I think) that I've read a post by a committed Leaver that recognises that the EU is in a slightly stronger bargaining position than the UK.

What worries me is that we are now reliant on the actions of others. If the EU decides to play hard ball then we would lose significantly more than they do. Yes, they would be punishing themselves, but we'd have an economy in the toilet. If that did happen then we would undoubtedly lose most of our financial sector to Europe.

All speculation obviously, and I'm sure someone will be along soon to tell me that I'm wrong/a coward/unable to speak Latin etc 

You are wrong about one major part of your post. I didn't vote in the referendum due to work taking me away 2 days before the vote but I would have voted remain. I am far from a committed Leaver and would far prefer to remain in the EU.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Seems like Theresa May is telling the EU that there cannot be a solution to the NI/EU border solution unless the EU is more flexible...conveniently seeming to forget that she has set out the constraint that has led to the impasse. The EU's constitutionally immovable Red Lines were known before May set out her Red Line on the Customs Union. It was only when she drew that Red Line did the issue become insoluble. If she had not drawn that red Line then there would have been an easy answer.

Mrs May was guilty of the mostest wishful thinking or of deceiving the electorate (well certainly many on the Leave side of the argument) when she suggested that a solution could be found with her RL in place - knowing full well that the EU would not / could not budge. No good pretending that the issue is the EU's fault and that the EU should break one of it's fundamental principles to accommodate an unnecessary UK constraint.

 

[hors limite]

That's true, it should be. We want to continue selling to them and they want to continue selling to us. The IMF have produced a report saying that a hard Brexit would hit the EU economy hard and reduce growth by 1.5% with Ireland suffering particularly badly with a 4% drop. Also that countries such as Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark face being hit harder than Finland or Italy due to the amount of trade between the countries. It wasn't mentioned in the report, as it was focused on the EU, but I would assume that the UK economy would also take a pretty big hit to growth from a hard Brexit. Therefore to avoid damaging the economies of all EU countries and the UK the free trade deal should be easy to agree. Unless the EU decide to cut off their nose to spite their face and punish the UK for daring to leave. The EU and Japan have just agreed one that doesn't include freedom of movement so why should it be different for the UK just because we voted not to be a member of their club any more?

If I may paraphrase your first sentence, you think that a EU trade deal should be easy. The trouble is that this ignores the political realities. The EU is dead set against separating the four freedoms - goods, capital, services and labour. As things stand they are the rules. If you leave, you don't get to enjoy the benefits. I sympathise with the comparison you make with the new Japan deal but since when has politics been logical?

 

[bluewolf]

You are wrong about one major part of your post. I didn't vote in the referendum due to work taking me away 2 days before the vote but I would have voted remain. I am far from a committed Leaver and would far prefer to remain in the EU.

Damn!!! Back to the beginning again

 

[bluewolf]

You are wrong but I put that down to your modus operandi, Et Al
.

Explain how we are in a stronger position please.

 

[drdel]

Barnier has said he doesn't trust the UK to collected taxes for the EU so has rejected latest May proposition.

Anybody who has read Varoufakis's book will see his predictions are being played out.

 

[Hobbit]

Barnier has said he doesn't trust the UK to collected taxes for the EU so has rejected latest May proposition.

Anybody who has read Varoufakis's book will see his predictions are being played out.

Barnier has also said its essential that the UK is part of the law/security group. 3 weeks ago he was saying the UK will be excluded from this group.

Tomorrow the wind will be from the west, and Dorothy will be hit by a house in Kansas. You just can't make this rubbish up.

 

[bluewolf]

It's almost as though the EU negotiators have a plan in place to frustrate the negotiations for as long as possible. Like they know we aren't in a strong position and, despite what we keep being told, we have no real tangible plan and no real cohesive structure.

It's utterly frustrating. Almost like when your football team is losing and the opposition are just playing with the ball and feigning cramps.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

It's almost as though the EU negotiators have a plan in place to frustrate the negotiations for as long as possible. Like they know we aren't in a strong position and, despite what we keep being told, we have no real tangible plan and no real cohesive structure.

It's utterly frustrating. Almost like when your football team is losing and the opposition are just playing with the ball and feigning cramps.

Aye- but if they are not that good and sure of their ability to hold on to the ball, and know that you are the better team - and you are good at harrying - then they will eventually lose control and you'll regain possession, score and win the game.

Is the UK the better team? Are the EU rubbish and faking it?

 

[PNWokingham]

this sums it up nicely. We have gone as far politically as possible and not even sure this will work as both sides hate it but may just about accept it. Time to reinforce this message with Brussels and make clear that we cannot go further and now absolutely will walk away and focus all energies on a hard exit. Before this happens, in my opinion, the government needs to issue tens of billions in medium- and long-term gilts to specifically put into a "UK Future" fund that can help in all areas of the economy in a development bank fashion, along with significant tax breaks in major manufacturing industries for a, say, fixed 10yr period to help compensate for trade tariffs and encourage the businesses to stay

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...uge-gamble-will-surrender-keeps-pushing-dont/

 

[SocketRocket]

Explain how we are in a stronger position please.

Strength of position is a rather complex consideration and subjective. no, I didn't suggest you were wrong on that point, it was rather your suggestion that the UK economy would be in the toilet
I consider it to be strong enough to survive and even prosper if/when it moves on from the current storm in a teacup. I remain semper fidelis to our potential.

 

[Hobbit]

Aye- but if they are not that good and sure of their ability to hold on to the ball, and know that you are the better team - and you are good at harrying - then they will eventually lose control and you'll regain possession, score and win the game.

Is the UK the better team? Are the EU rubbish and faking it?

The EU are faking it. Time and again they move the goal posts. We agree something, they then ask for more. They say we can’t have a security deal, we remind them how many European arrest warrants we’ve enacted on their behalf, and Barnier now says it’s essential that the UK are part of the EU security deal.

I’ve twice walked away from a multi-million pound deal because of the way the other party has behaved, and twice they’ve asked to reopen negotiations. The EU need the £9bn desperately, let alone all the businesses that need the UK market.

Its time they they were told to get stuffed.

 

[bluewolf]

Strength of position is a rather complex consideration and subjective. no, I didn't suggest you were wrong on that point, it was rather your suggestion that the UK economy would be in the toilet
I consider it to be strong enough to survive and even prosper if/when it moves on from the current storm in a teacup. I remain semper fidelis to our potential.

The EU are faking it. Time and again they move the goal posts. We agree something, they then ask for more. They say we can’t have a security deal, we remind them how many European arrest warrants we’ve enacted on their behalf, and Barnier now says it’s essential that the UK are part of the EU security deal.

I’ve twice walked away from a multi-million pound deal because of the way the other party has behaved, and twice they’ve asked to reopen negotiations. The EU need the £9bn desperately, let alone all the businesses that need the UK market.

Its time they they were told to get stuffed.

Ok. To simplify things.

If you two were going into this negotiation. Just a simple 1 session negotiation meeting. No nationalistic pride. It's not the UK vs the EU. It's one company vs another. Which side would you prefer to be on?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The EU are faking it. Time and again they move the goal posts. We agree something, they then ask for more. They say we can’t have a security deal, we remind them how many European arrest warrants we’ve enacted on their behalf, and Barnier now says it’s essential that the UK are part of the EU security deal.

I’ve twice walked away from a multi-million pound deal because of the way the other party has behaved, and twice they’ve asked to reopen negotiations. The EU need the £9bn desperately, let alone all the businesses that need the UK market.

Its time they they were told to get stuffed.

Walking away from multi-million pound deals in business is fine and dandy if your business remain just 'as-is' and it remains business as usual. But that is not the situation with the EU. Were we to walk away we are 100% NOT back to 'as-s' and business as usual. In fact we are in a brand new situation - a completely new business environment, if you like. One which we have NEVER experienced before as the world of business today is light years away from what it was back in the 1970s. And we we try to come up with a new business model to sustain us whilst we evolve wqe are in a pretty perilous situation becomes of the number of unknowns.

I hear and read many (here and elsewhere) compare Walking away from Europe with No Deal, as being similar to walking away from a business deal. I just don't get the comparison and similarity suggested; unless, that is, your business needs the deal, and without it your business is going to struggle and could indeed fail. That way I can see a similarity - but I don't think that that is the similarity in mind.

 

[MegaSteve]

From 40+ years I've noted the EU are great at taking but not so good in giving anything back in return...

 

[Hobbit]

Ok. To simplify things.

If you two were going into this negotiation. Just a simple 1 session negotiation meeting. No nationalistic pride. It's not the UK vs the EU. It's one company vs another. Which side would you prefer to be on?

Its a negotiation with no winners, only a mitigation of the consequences of Leave. Both sides will have (and I hate the term) red lines. And both sides will accept concessions on those red lines if there's a give elsewhere on another red line.

I'd be quite happy negotiating for the UK, and I'm sure others would be happy negotiating for the EU.

What does the UK have that the EU desperately need? 1) An amount of money that mitigates an impending £9bn black hole in their budget. That's £9bn in one year, ad growing in subsequent years. And that's £9bn that the receiving countries have said they won't back away from demanding, as they've set their internal budgets based on that. And the contributing countries have said they won't increase their contributions to cover it. 2) EU export market in the UK. Some of the more robust European economies will cope reasonably well but the smaller ones won't. That means the bigger ones will have to contribute to the smaller countries, but they've already said they won't cover the £9bn and covering even more will hurt even more. 3) The EU is stuck in a 27 country council that has to try and be dynamic in looking attractive to new markets. It will have to look at a whole host of tariff structures and agreements, both from the EU wide perspective and individual markets/industries. The UK will almost certainly gain massively in its ability to restructure tariffs and internal subsidies. And it will be able to match Ireland's Corporation Tax structure, which the EU have been very unhappy about - drop Corporation Tax and you've mitigated tariffs the EU will almost certainly impose, and made it either comfortable to stay in the UK, and export to the EU or, as Ireland has done, make it attractive to new industries from outside the EU.

Some of the EU economies are very fragile, not yet out of recession, and some are only just out of recession. Its a house of cards akin to the subprime lending in the USA. I know where I'd rather be.

But how robust is the UK, if the EU says get stuffed. The projection is a 1.5% drop. In some EU countries its a 4% drop. The UK, as a leading economy, will be able to cope far better than the EU, but that doesn't mean they will cope well. People continue to look at it from a country perspective, which is right from a tax revenue perspective, but very few look at how it will affect individual industries.

To answer your question, I'd prefer to be in the UK in this negotiation.

 

[Hobbit]

Walking away from multi-million pound deals in business is fine and dandy if your business remain just 'as-is' and it remains business as usual. But that is not the situation with the EU. Were we to walk away we are 100% NOT back to 'as-s' and business as usual. In fact we are in a brand new situation - a completely new business environment, if you like. One which we have NEVER experienced before as the world of business today is light years away from what it was back in the 1970s. And we we try to come up with a new business model to sustain us whilst we evolve wqe are in a pretty perilous situation becomes of the number of unknowns.

I hear and read many (here and elsewhere) compare Walking away from Europe with No Deal, as being similar to walking away from a business deal. I just don't get the comparison and similarity suggested; unless, that is, your business needs the deal, and without it your business is going to struggle and could indeed fail. That way I can see a similarity - but I don't think that that is the similarity in mind.

Walking away from deals in business is ok coz you can stay as is. Mmm, selling that one to share holders will not wash at all. Unlike a politician, if you think you can get away with as is you better update your CV.

Coming up with new business models - why? You have a product and a pricing structure. You have customers that want those products but you now have tariffs and regs in the way. Thankfully you also have govt that wants/needs you to be successful, and through tariffs and subsidies(that all of a sudden its allowed to give) you are receiving support you didn't have before.

You are seeing mountains when there are only large hills that someone is busy building a railway to the top of. It won't be utopia but it won't be anything like as bad as you just want to believe it will be.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Walking away from deals in business is ok coz you can stay as is. Mmm, selling that one to share holders will not wash at all. Unlike a politician, if you think you can get away with as is you better update your CV.

Coming up with new business models - why? You have a product and a pricing structure. You have customers that want those products but you now have tariffs and regs in the way. Thankfully you also have govt that wants/needs you to be successful, and through tariffs and subsidies(that all of a sudden its allowed to give) you are receiving support you didn't have before.

You are seeing mountains when there are only large hills that someone is busy building a railway to the top of. It won't be utopia but it won't be anything like as bad as you just want to believe it will be.

I don't WANT it to be bad. I have no time for charlatans and snake-oil salesmen who seem to have such a dislike of the EU that they refuse to accept any concerns about the future and simply want the UK out no matter what. They have been doing a marvellous job selling the idea that a No Deal was actually what the Leave voters voted for - when in fact the votes voted to leave the EU - and that leaving without a deal will be just fine - and the concerns of business - especially around no transition were there no deal - are just Project Fear and business just looking for what suits business. Pity that what best suits business probably best suits their employees and the country. If it was all going to be so great I can't imagine why business would not be cheering No Dealers on.

The Leave voters voted to leave the EU - and that we are currently doing.

But I do not recall much discussion at all about not re-engaging with the EU after we had left. The electorate DID NOT vote to leave and not re-engage - they voted to leave the EU and I suspect most expected some form of re-engagement. But the snake-oil salesmen have convinced a large part of the electorate with their weasel words. And that is - in my opinion - disgraceful, and May is right to be standing up to these charlatans, chancers and ideologues.