Boris the PM - a new beginning

[IanM]

Whoooosh...... you missed it yet again
NZ, Greenland, Iceland...... or Spain & Italy that we've been watching! Size & shape etc doesn't matter.... it's the decisions you make based on the importance you attach to those choices. And, a caring NZ made the better choices. I trust you're getting it now as I can't make it any clearer!!

So a whoosh from a bloke demonstrating that he has missed the point? I wonder if I should try to explain (again) - maybe not. Not worth falling out over. (Please see the Oban joke as a cue)

 

[Hobbit]

If I can just give one little example of where I am conflicted with our PM and the government - and i mention this as I was picked up on it when I posted yesterday when 'not right in the head'

I mentioned that he raised the 'if we hadn't done what we did we could have been facing 500,000 dead'. Now this might well be true and I accept it probably was mentioned back when the measures were being introduced - and so I am grateful that the government has enabled the country, through the various personal and business financing schemes, to practice the social distancing and other measures we have adhered to over the last 5 weeks. That's a very strong up-side of what the government has done for us.

However I simply do not recall any minister in any briefing bringing up that the 500,000 since, and in Johnson's absence. I admit that I can have selective memory with government minister briefings - especially when some are at the podium saying very little - but I just don't recall hearing it said. Until yesterday. And I am afraid that my instant thought (as instinctively I do not trust him) was that this is exactly what Trump is doing to big himself up in the eyes of the US electorate when telling them that without his measures US could be seeing 2,000,000 deaths by now. If they had done absolutely nothing - in the face of a viral pandemic.

And then along with the 500,000 figure Johnson paints a visual picture of a great mountain that we have put a tunnel through by doing what we've done. In fact as we all know that's not a very good analogy - but it does paint an impressive picture if you didn't quite appreciate it was the wrong picture. And my suspicious mind asks me 'Why is he doing this when his colleagues haven't been; is it because talking of this number and the imaginary are intended to make the current grim total of deaths with Covid-17 seem not so bad'?

And therein lies my conflict. The government seem to have managed some aspects well - but I am not sure I am totally trusting Johnson on the completeness of what he is saying.

In truth the only thing that really matters to me at this moment is that the government itself knows why we have the number we have - and what they could have done at the outset that might have helped reduce that number - and learn the lessons. So that whatever these lessons are, they build them into their planning for managing any further outbreaks following the relaxation that must come. I feel that they must be completely open and straight in telling us what that planning will require us to do - whenever and wherever a further outbreak might happen. Hopefully they will be. Actually I am pretty sure they will be.

I think you’re onto something there H. Johnson has a lot of PR waffle in some of what he says. It’s cuddly and warming, and perhaps there to paint pictire’s for the hard of hearing. Raab and Hancock have tried to stick to the brief, inc hard facts.

Does that make Johnson a liar or a fairground hustler? You take your choice but as a comparison, ”we will fight them on the beaches” is lauded. Churchill was unceremoniously dumped after the war. Who knows, once the real cost in terms of lives and economics is faced...

 

[bluewolf]

I know we’re straying well away from the point but I do question one point you made, that of the Conservatives having the most socio-economic policies of a U.K. govt ever. As much as it’s difficult for everyone to see past Iraq, have a look at what Blair’s govts achieved. Until the god complex/GW’s puppy phase set in, wow what a record of socialist achievements. What a fab PM in the early days.

And if you do ever get here, there’ll be more than 2 cervezas.

Agreed. I was (and probably still am) more of a Blairite than most. The comment was a little tongue in cheek I suppose ???

 

[Swinglowandslow]

That may be true (though why give comparisons against other countries when comparison of numbers of deaths is we are told misleading) but I don't have any comparisons to make other than with the US. And indeed our government measures up splendidly against what Trump says - and probably pretty well against such as Governor Cuomo of NY State - who seems to be extremely open.

The issue simply arises when ministers are not able to answer quite simple little questions - so for instance two asked of the Robert Jenrick on the Today programme this morning relating to contact tracing. How many people have been recruited? and, We knew we'd have to do contact tracing so why didn't you start recruiting before 23rd April? On the first question the answer was a kind of 'don't know' - and he probably should have - the second he just did not really answer at all other than saying we have been doing contact tracing for some time - which wasn't really what he was asked.

Anyway he's not Johnson and maybe Johnson would have answered it differently.

Perhaps I have not understood this contact tracing , and if I haven't ,no doubt someone will enlighten us ( I don't think I would be alone), but until this app which is imminent, I fail to see how contact tracing could be effective if attempted earlier.
Going back earlier in April, IIRC, testing was done on hospital patients only, and frontline staff? Not on general public, even those with symptoms( they were asked to isolate and only contact 111 or doc if they deteriorated )
So, certainly no practical way to test them? If anyone is saying it should have been done, calling on all households where someone reports suspected covid ( how many false panic calls would there be to ask for testing),please tell me how the positive testee could effectively tell you who he had been close to in the previous week, and even if they could, how could the government logistically trace those people, effectively. It would need an "army "
Maybe some effort could have been made re tracing those who positive frontline staff had been close to, but even then, with all that was elsewhere being cranked up to fight this virus, it would have been ineffective.
Plus, testing all these people on a Tuesday when negative , doesn't mean they stay negative . Some may be positive by Friday.

If what I am saying sounds defeatist, then look back at how many people you got near to , in a week. On the way to work, or shopping etc.

Now, however, it's a different story once this app gets taken up. Tracing can be done effectively and immediately without massive , massive workforce or logistics. It will now be worth doing.

As I say, I'm open to correction about mass testing early on in this crisis, so over to you

 

[drdel]

Perhaps I have not understood this contact tracing , and if I haven't ,no doubt someone will enlighten us ( I don't think I would be alone), but until this app which is imminent, I fail to see how contact tracing could be effective if attempted earlier.
Going back earlier in April, IIRC, testing was done on hospital patients only, and frontline staff? Not on general public, even those with symptoms( they were asked to isolate and only contact 111 or doc if they deteriorated )
So, certainly no practical way to test them? If anyone is saying it should have been done, calling on all households where someone reports suspected covid ( how many false panic calls would there be to ask for testing),please tell me how the positive testee could effectively tell you who he had been close to in the previous week, and even if they could, how could the government logistically trace those people, effectively. It would need an "army "
Maybe some effort could have been made re tracing those who positive frontline staff had been close to, but even then, with all that was elsewhere being cranked up to fight this virus, it would have been ineffective.
Plus, testing all these people on a Tuesday when negative , doesn't mean they stay negative .

If what I am saying sounds defeatist, then look back at how many people you got near to , in a week. On the way to work, or shopping etc.

Now, however, it's a different story once this app gets taken up. Tracing can be done effectively and immediately without massive , massive workforce or logistics. It will now be worth doing.

As I say, I'm open to correction about mass testing early on in this crisis, so over to you

Yup, in an open society like the UK of 66mill it would simply have been impossible. Hence, now the virus is within the population the current fear that if the infecttion rate goes back to, even slightly greater than 1:1 it would cause major and servere loss-of-life problems

 

[chrisd]

So a whoosh from a bloke demonstrating that he has missed the point? I wonder if I should try to explain (again) - maybe not. Not worth falling out over. (Please see the Oban joke as a cue)

Leave him Ian - he lives in his own little world!

 

[Hobbit]

Leave him Ian - he lives in his own little world!

He's too busy putting wood on the bonfires he keeps burning.

 

[chrisd]

He's too busy putting wood on the bonfires he keeps burning.

Well Brian - he wont get any coal from Tashy anymore ??

 

[Hacker Khan]

Perhaps I have not understood this contact tracing , and if I haven't ,no doubt someone will enlighten us ( I don't think I would be alone), but until this app which is imminent, I fail to see how contact tracing could be effective if attempted earlier.
Going back earlier in April, IIRC, testing was done on hospital patients only, and frontline staff? Not on general public, even those with symptoms( they were asked to isolate and only contact 111 or doc if they deteriorated )
So, certainly no practical way to test them? If anyone is saying it should have been done, calling on all households where someone reports suspected covid ( how many false panic calls would there be to ask for testing),please tell me how the positive testee could effectively tell you who he had been close to in the previous week, and even if they could, how could the government logistically trace those people, effectively. It would need an "army "
Maybe some effort could have been made re tracing those who positive frontline staff had been close to, but even then, with all that was elsewhere being cranked up to fight this virus, it would have been ineffective.
Plus, testing all these people on a Tuesday when negative , doesn't mean they stay negative .

If what I am saying sounds defeatist, then look back at how many people you got near to , in a week. On the way to work, or shopping etc.

Now, however, it's a different story once this app gets taken up. Tracing can be done effectively and immediately without massive , massive workforce or logistics. It will now be worth doing.

As I say, I'm open to correction about mass testing early on in this crisis, so over to you

Yup, in an open society like the UK of 66mill it would simply have been impossible. Hence, now the virus is within the population the current fear that if the infecttion rate goes back to, even slightly greater than 1:1 it would cause major and servere loss-of-life problems

Seemed to work well up to yet in South Korea, who started it early along side testing, with a population of 50 odd million in a very densely populated country.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

Well Brian - he wont get any coal from Tashy anymore ??

And all the slag heaps near him have gone. Now nature reserves I suspect.
Don't envy the kids today. I was able to play on them.
Slag heaps were more fun to a kid than a nature reserve?

 

[2blue]

He's too busy putting wood on the bonfires he keeps burning.

He's too busy putting wood on the bonfires he keeps burning.

Hello, who's that??

 

[Old Skier]

Seemed to work well up to yet in South Korea who started it early along side testing with a population of 50 odd million in a very densely populated country.

South Korea used very aggressive contact tracing with a successful use of an app but even used bank and spending info via cards.

Judging by some comments on the thread about "Would you use the app", there could be so me strong opposition

 

[Swinglowandslow]

Seemed to work well up to yet in South Korea who started it early along side testing with a population of 50 odd million in a very densely populated country.

Yes, I have to say that S Korea and England/Wales are similar- size and population. It genuinely puzzles me exactly how they did the testing.
Who did they test soon as covid started and how. Was repeated testing done and on whom, etc etc.
What was required of positive testees, or those who thought they had it etc.
Does anyone know where there is an explanation of how they achieved this?

 

[Hacker Khan]

Yes, I have to say that S Korea and England/Wales are similar- size and population. It genuinely puzzles me exactly how they did the testing.
Who did they test soon as covid started and how. Was repeated testing done and on whom, etc etc.
What was required of positive testees, or those who thought they had it etc.
Does anyone know where there is an explanation of how they achieved this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52482553

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Yup, in an open society like the UK of 66mill it would simply have been impossible. Hence, now the virus is within the population the current fear that if the infecttion rate goes back to, even slightly greater than 1:1 it would cause major and servere loss-of-life problems

which is why the government plans to hire 18,000 contact tracers. Now we have known for as long as that we needed them - and so we could have initiated the hiring of them well before 23rd April - the date I understand the hiring was kicked-off. I could be generous and suggest that there is no point in hiring unless we know when the app will be done and out in the population as they'd have nothing to do. But they could still have been identified and engaged with start date tbc. I am sure there would be plenty ready to be trained up in readiness.

How will it work? I'm guessing a bit here. I have the app downloaded onto my phone (does it have to be an iPhone?) with Bluetooth switched on. When I get within infection passing range (2m calculated using GPS?) of someone else with the app the ID of his phone/app is logged against mine - and mine against his - and that info will all be synch'd by the app to the cloud database for both of us. If I contract the virus three contact tracers will be allocated to me. The database will tell the contact tracers the IDs of the phones and hence the individuals that I've been close to in the previous 2weeks or so. The tracers then follow-up with contacting all of those individuals to tell them they have been in infectious range of someone who has the virus within the previous 2 weeks. These individuals are contacted by the tracers and told to isolate, and then their proximity contacts are then followed up. And so it goes on.

I'm thinking that if my proximity contact record shows a lot of contacts in my home 'first part' postcode area, the app could send out an immediate lockdown order to all living in the that postcode. And it could also post a warning via the app that my postcode is in Lockdown and so not to be visited unless essential.

Well that's how I'd make it work.

 

[Hacker Khan]

South Korea used very aggressive contact tracing with a successful use of an app but even used bank and spending info via cards.

Judging by some comments on the thread about "Would you use the app", there could be so me strong opposition

I suppose that's the society we live in. Something like that would never work in the US as I suspect it would be 'unconstitutional' and they reserve the right to catch the disease and government can't tell them not to. It looks like it worked well in South Korea up to yet because they may have a different cultural and political background that means they are happy to adopt this kind of thing. Who knows where we lie, but it is clear to me that the history of a nation and it's current political ideology also plays a difference in both the measures taken and the way the public responds to them. Also it is ironic as just about everyone has already given away their entire behaviour to tech companies through the use of apps and web sites. So worrying about lack of privacy from this app is very much like bolting the stable door.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

which is why the government plans to hire 18,000 contact tracers. Now we have known for as long as that we needed them - and so we could have initiated the hiring of them well before 23rd April - the date I understand the hiring was kicked-off. I could be generous and suggest that there is no point in hiring unless we know when the app will be done and out in the population as they'd have nothing to do. But they could still have been identified and engaged with start date tbc. I am sure there would be plenty ready to be trained up in readiness.

How will it work? I'm guessing a bit here. I have the app downloaded onto my phone (does it have to be an iPhone?) with Bluetooth switched on. When I get within infection passing range (2m calculated using GPS?) of someone else with the app the ID of his phone/app is logged against mine - and mine against his - and that info will all be synch'd by the app to the cloud database for both of us. If I contract the virus three contact tracers will be allocated to me. The database will tell the contact tracers the IDs of the phones and hence the individuals that I've been close to in the previous 2weeks or so. The tracers then follow-up with contacting all of those individuals to tell them they have been in infectious range of someone who has the virus within the previous 2 weeks. These individuals are contacted by the tracers and told to isolate, and then their proximity contacts are then followed up. And so it goes on.

I'm thinking that if my proximity contact record shows a lot of contacts in my home 'first part' postcode area, the app could send out an immediate lockdown order to all living in the that postcode. And it could also post a warning via the app that my postcode is in Lockdown and so not to be visited unless essential.

Well that's how I'd make it work.

More or less like the Aussie app, except I read the Aussie one automatically alerts contacts via text.
Of course, it seems both rely on the one testing positive to upload the fact so that the contacts can be alerted

 

[Foxholer]

I know we’re straying well away from the point but I do question one point you made, that of the Conservatives having the most socio-economic policies of a U.K. govt ever. As much as it’s difficult for everyone to see past Iraq, have a look at what Blair’s govts achieved. Until the god complex/GW’s puppy phase set in, wow what a record of socialist achievements. What a fab PM in the early days.
...

What Blair achieved was a consequence of his realistic attitude that in order to make change, first you have to be in power! Until Labour re-learns that lesson - that to win an election Labour has to 'appeal to the Right as well as the Left' - I don't believe they will ever return to government, save through the sort of untimely and mismanaged 'disaster' like Cov-19 could be or the Banking Crisis was, without (re-)grasping that concept and repeating his tactics - appealing to the 'aspirational middle-right' as well as the traditional 'left'!

And, I believe, almost all those socio-economic/social improvement (they no longer seem 'socialist') policies Blair's govt introduced are still in place, so BW's comment about current Conservatives having "The most Socialist Economic Policies of a U.K. Government.. Ever" is likely to be correct! It's the Conservative PR machine that's so much better than Labour's imo! Oh and a completely wrong choice of leader (twice) by 'the Unions' certainly hasn't helped Labour's chances either!

 

[Swinglowandslow]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52482553

Thanks for that.

This seemed the important part. It doesn't say to what extent the isolation was enforced. Was it suggested, or required on pain of fine , or detention.
Or was it known that they are a disciplined nation who, being told to isolate, they would do so.

"
The huge number of tests meant South Korea's infection numbers grew quickly, but also that authorities were able early on to effectively find those who were infected, isolate and treat them.

South Korea also started aggressively contact tracing, finding people who had interacted with a confirmed case, isolating and testing them too.

• 'At a love motel': Are S Korea virus alerts too revealing?

When someone tested positive, authorities would send out an alert to those living or working nearby. People soon got used to receiving a flurry of these messages from authorities."

Do you think the UK or USA would respond well enough to make it work?

 

[Hacker Khan]

Thanks for that.

This seemed the important part. It doesn't say to what extent the isolation was enforced. Was it suggested, or required on pain of fine , or detention.
Or was it known that they are a disciplined nation who, being told to isolate, they would do so.

"
The huge number of tests meant South Korea's infection numbers grew quickly, but also that authorities were able early on to effectively find those who were infected, isolate and treat them.

South Korea also started aggressively contact tracing, finding people who had interacted with a confirmed case, isolating and testing them too.

• 'At a love motel': Are S Korea virus alerts too revealing?

When someone tested positive, authorities would send out an alert to those living or working nearby. People soon got used to receiving a flurry of these messages from authorities."

Do you think the UK or USA would respond well enough to make it work?

As I said in a previous post, in the US I doubt it. You have a president who is kind of encouraging people in Democratic states to rebel against lockdowns leading to gun toting 'patriots' going into state capitol buildings. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52496514 So I doubt you'll get a large enough percentage to use an app if the request comes from the government.

As for the UK I am not sure if young people will listen to the Tory government enough to make it work. And most of the old people who voted Tory probably cant use a smart phone anyway.