£2,000,000 or prison

[Dibby]

Im not really sure to be honest ! But going with the idea that if you hit 25k balls you have two 50/50 shots of getting a hole in one. But not sure thats correct. Not sure either, but the chances one of your two batchs of 12.5k balls producing that hole in one is 0.75. So probably should have said 3 to 1. So 25% chance you would lose. Going with your number of 12500 which seems in the ballpark, people seem to be assuming that is you hit 12.5k you should indeed get a hole in 1, or that if you have the stamina and time to hit twice that, you are vitually guaranteed one. But thats not the case.

Nothing is guaranteed, I could flip a coin 100 times and it all be heads. However. if I offered you 6 coin flips and your call only had to come up once, would you think it's a good deal, irrespective of the outcome?

 

[Dibby]

The odds of getting 6 coins tosses the same in a row is just over 1%. I‘d certainly be more inclined to take those odds over a hole in one.

It wasn't 6 in a row, it was 6 coin flips and your call has to come up 1 time during those 6 attempts. 6 attempts at a 1/2 shot is broadly similar to 25,000 attempts at a 1/8000 shot.

 

[Papas1982]

It wasn't 6 in a row, it was 6 coin flips and your call has to come up 1 time during those 6 attempts. 6 attempts at a 1/2 shot is broadly similar to 25,000 attempts at a 1/8000 shot.

Not really. Because if I chose heads. Then you HAVE to throw tails six times in a row for me not to win.

Your odds are approx 1/3 33%
The odds of 6 consecutive tails is approx 1.56%
Meaning my chance of success is 98.44%

You are basing your odds on guestimation. I'm basing my odds on fact. The coin toss was a common example used in statistics when I was at college.

 

[Dibby]

Not really. Because if I chose heads. Then you HAVE to throw tails six times in a row for me not to win.

Your odds are approx 1/3 33%
The odds of 6 consecutive tails is approx 1.56%
Meaning my chance of success is 98.44%

You are basing your odds on guestimation. I'm basing my odds on fact. The coin toss was a common example used in statistics when I was at college.

I thought you were saying you had a 1% chance of winning the coin toss challenge, now I realise you were talking about my odds, and hence it's a good value proposition no matter the outcome, which was my point.

So you agree the odds of winning the coin toss is in your favour. Now lets do the same with the hole in one assuming the simplified model of a 1/8000 shot each time with 25000 attempts.

= 1 - (1 - 0.000125)^25000

= 95.61%

So a 96% chance of winning. Broadly similar.

 

[Papas1982]

I thought you were saying you had a 1% chance of winning the coin toss challenge, now I realise you were talking about my odds, and hence it's a good value proposition no matter the outcome, which was my point.

So you agree the odds of winning the coin toss is in your favour. Now lets do the same with the hole in one assuming the simplified model of a 1/8000 shot each time with 25000 attempts.

= 1 - (1 - 0.000125)^25000

= 95.61%

So a 96% chance of winning. Broadly similar.

??

Sorry fella. Wires crossed on my behalf there, I worked my calculations properly then didn’t do the same for yours.
hands help up lol

 

[Dibby]

??

Sorry fella. Wires crossed on my behalf there, I worked my calculations properly then didn’t do the same for yours.
hands help up lol

No worries I misread your post too, so apologies from me also.