# Autumn Statement



## Foxholer (Nov 23, 2016)

Certainly seems to anticipate that Referendum result *will* cause a dip in the economy! No surprise to me, but Brexiters (at least in the Commons) didn't seem to want to hear this sort of prediction/admission! 

Borrowing certainly nowhere near zero by end of this Parliament. Debt as a percentage of GDP up to over 90%. OBR has even published numbers about the expected cost - something like 29Bn!

Would indicate that Mark Carney/BofE was/were pretty much spot on with his predictions - or at least matched those of other authorities! Seems a bad case of 'shoot the messenger' to me!

Quite a few 'positive' moves and a more forcefully presented Statement than those of Osborne. Hopefully none of the blunders that Osborne was prone to either!


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 23, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			Certainly seems to anticipate that Referendum result *will* cause a dip in the economy! No surprise to me, but Brexiters (at least in the Commons) didn't seem to want to hear this sort of prediction/admission! 

Borrowing certainly nowhere near zero by end of this Parliament. Debt as a percentage of GDP up to over 90%. OBR has even published numbers about the expected cost - something like 29Bn!

Would indicate that Mark Carney/BofE was/were pretty much spot on with his predictions - or at least matched those of other authorities! Seems a bad case of 'shoot the messenger' to me!

Quite a few 'positive' moves and a more forcefully presented Statement than those of Osborne. Hopefully none of the blunders that Osborne was prone to either!
		
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Unfortunately in the Brexit Blunderland that the government currently inhabits, Hammond may be Gulliver amongst Lilliputians.


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## Tashyboy (Nov 23, 2016)

I must be missing summat here and would loved to be enlightened. All the forecasts have been reassessed because of Brexit. They are assessments by the experts who have got previous assessments wrong. But al go with the experts still. Now borrowing is still gonna be massive proper massive. Yet we will still push ahead with expensive projects like HS 2. Why? Why are this generation having to pay for the next generation being able to get to Birmingham 20 mins quicker. Why not pay for it when we are better off. Yup they want private investment for it, but to me Â£1 of Joe Publics money spent is a quid to much. Tough times ahead yet we have signed an expensive nuclear energy deal Why? 
So to the educated or not so educated out there, can someone please enlighten me.


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## SocketRocket (Nov 23, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			Unfortunately in the Brexit Blunderland that the government currently inhabits, Hammond may be Gulliver amongst Lilliputians.
		
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What Brexit Blunderland is that then.  From where I'm sitting Brexit hasn't happened yet!

IMO one of the biggest threats we have in the country are people just like you that have a policy of talking the country down.  This is a great way to create uncertainty and encourage a recession.

I know you believe yourself to be the one who Speaks through the earthquake, wind, and fire 'O' still, small voice of calm, but to some of us you just sound like an embittered person who didn't get his own way so has decided to drone on ad-nausea  rather than face up to reality and try to make the best of things.


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## Lord Tyrion (Nov 23, 2016)

Basically politicians put off the bad news for the next lot to deal with. No one wants to be remembered as the politician who really cut their cloth accordingly so they dodge it. The current PM will only be there for the next 5-6 years at best so they won't have to deal with the debt of Trident, HS2 etc. They want to be remembered for what they built, not for cutting and being mean and nasty. They are cowards basically. Yes, I am cynical but I think I am right as well.


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## Blue in Munich (Nov 23, 2016)

Lord Tyrion said:



			Basically politicians put off the bad news for the next lot to deal with. No one wants to be remembered as the politician who really cut their cloth accordingly so they dodge it. The current PM will only be there for the next 5-6 years at best so they won't have to deal with the debt of Trident, HS2 etc. They want to be remembered for what they built, not for cutting and being mean and nasty. They are cowards basically. *Yes, I am cynical but I think I am right as well.*

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Tell me the difference between a cynic and a realist and I'll tell you which one you areâ€¦.


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## Lord Tyrion (Nov 23, 2016)

In this instance I think I am both, ha ha.


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## Liverpoolphil (Nov 23, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			What Brexit Blunderland is that then.  From where I'm sitting Brexit hasn't happened yet!

IMO one of the biggest threats we have in the country are people just like you that have a policy of talking the country down.  This is a great way to create uncertainty and encourage a recession.

I know you believe yourself to be the one who Speaks through the earthquake, wind, and fire 'O' still, small voice of calm, but to some of us you just sound like an embittered person who didn't get his own way so has decided to drone on ad-nausea  rather than face up to reality and try to make the best of things.
		
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Yet all you appear to be doing is using this thread and others as a vehicle to constant play slating tennis with SILH - it's no surprise that your first post on this thread is to have a go at him , it doesn't have any relation to what the OP is it's just another platform for you to start preaching to one and all about how everything is going to be perfect and anyone with any fears and worries is as you say "talking the country down" - maybe it's time you realise you are just as bad but from the opposite of the fence - with your horse as high as anyone else and stop constantly turning this political threads into a war ground between you and anyone who may not agree with your outlook on the future. There are a number of people on the forum who are able to put across any positives in regards Brexit without talking down to people and creating a running battle with a poster.


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## SocketRocket (Nov 23, 2016)

Liverpoolphil said:



			Yet all you appear to be doing is using this thread and others as a vehicle to constant play slating tennis with SILH - it's no surprise that your first post on this thread is to have a go at him , it doesn't have any relation to what the OP is it's just another platform for you to start preaching to one and all about how everything is going to be perfect and anyone with any fears and worries is as you say "talking the country down" - maybe it's time you realise you are just as bad but from the opposite of the fence - with your horse as high as anyone else and stop constantly turning this political threads into a war ground between you and anyone who may not agree with your outlook on the future. There are a number of people on the forum who are able to put across any positives in regards Brexit without talking down to people and creating a running battle with a poster.
		
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No!  you cant talk to me like that or you will be seen to be doing unto me what you suggest I do to unto SILH, bit hypocritical what!

So I am turning this political thread into a war ground between myself and anyone who may not agree with my outlook on the future am I.   War ground eh!   Get real mate!  SILH has a very single minded outlook on the subject matter and expresses it with passion, he is quite capable to stand his corner without you charging in like his big Brother.

This is a Forum and as such we can put our views and disagree with others.  If you don't like my views then debate the subject/put me on your ignore list or write me off as an oddball but please spare me the sermon.


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## SocketRocket (Nov 23, 2016)

Blue in Munich said:



			Tell me the difference between a cynic and a realist and I'll tell you which one you areâ€¦. 

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A Cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.  A Realist knows the price of everything and the value of everything.


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 24, 2016)

And lo - I listen to a Eurosceptic Brexit MP telling us that Phillip Hammond should have ignored the OBR forecasts he used for the Autumn Statement - as they are _"downbeat and ignorant in many respects"_.  

These folks just need to get over it; and stop moaning and dismissing the experts and Remainers if they say anything that seems to conflict with their '_everything will be great - look  - there has been an earthquake but no tsunami'_ narrative.  They seem to forget that when the tsunami hits depends upon how far from shore the epicentre of the earthquake is.  Hammond is simply catering for a less than perfect future scenario.  If you do not prepare your defences properly you could get swamped or swept away.  Just saying that something won't happen does not make it so.  And we know that to be the case.


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## DRW (Nov 24, 2016)

If any of you use the VAT flat rate scheme for business and trade mainly in the service industry, big changes are coming to the percentages you are using, as it is now seen as aggressive VAT avoidance use of the scheme.

Also watch out for Making Tax Digital(MTD) and having to keep your records on a daily basis on computer software yourself and filing returns five times a year, meant to start in April 2018.....


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## User62651 (Nov 24, 2016)

More fuel to the fire for Commons and Lords (Supreme Court case result pending) to weedle out of Brexit when it gets to parliament. Bet Tory party whips won't push their MPs to back it even though to the media they'll say they did. With such a small majority will only take a few Tory MPs coerced by Ken Clarke and buddies to vote it down. This 'bad news' yesterday could even be staged by Govt to sew more seeds of doubt. Will not be surprised to see the Article 50 draft bill defeated in Commons/Lords, followed by public protests/celebrations depending on what flag you fly, closely followed by General Election. UKIP get 20 MPs by numerous Tories defecting to UKIP but that's it, UK staying in the EU with the government in coalition again........................................................led by resurrected Tony Blair:whoo:

Seriously expect further major political turmoil over the next 2 years. Nothing would surprise me these days.


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## Foxholer (Nov 24, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			...
This is a Forum and as such we can put our views and disagree with others.  If you don't like my views then debate the subject/put me on your ignore list or write me off as an oddball but please spare me the sermon.
		
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Debate - certainly; abuse - certainly not!

There is a legitimate amount of debate over the likely (initial) cost of Brexit! Many Brexiters are choosing to either ignore it, pooh-pooh it or simply say there will not be a cost! Seems to me that this is pure fantasy (lies in other words) and it would be better to take the view that the initial hit will be worthwhile when the Â£350m/week (Yeah right! tTime to actually use a proper value!) starts taking effect - and all the other benefits start to come on stream!

Stating that Hammond should not have used OBR figures as they were 'negative' is, imo, another example of MPs abusing their position in the same way that they harassed Carney - who actually faced them down in Select Committee questions extremely well!


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## SocketRocket (Nov 24, 2016)

The OBR figures are complete guess work and they know it.  No one at this conjecture understands what the outcome of the Brexit negotiations with the EU will result in.   Their predictions are as bad as the ones before the Referendum and erring on 'worse case',  taking the view we will not generate any additional trade and income after we have left and will have no free trade agreement.


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## Jimaroid (Nov 24, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			The OBR figures are complete guess work and they know it.
		
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Better guess than some bloke's opinion down the pub though.


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## Foxholer (Nov 24, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			The OBR figures are* complete guess work* and they know it.  No one at this conjecture understands what the outcome of the Brexit negotiations with the EU will result in.   Their predictions are as bad as the ones before the Referendum and erring on 'worse case',  taking the view we will not generate any additional trade and income after we have left and will have no free trade agreement.
		
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Given their actual name (Office for Budget Responsibility) I hardly think they are that! That statement seems another example of the 'pooh-pooh'-ing of such predictions that I referred to!

Have there been any authoritative predictions that give 'better' numbers? I certainly haven't seen any!

Their Trade assumptions are in this document! http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.org.uk/Nov2016EFO.pdf


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## Fyldewhite (Nov 24, 2016)

It's like saying a weather forecast is "complete guess work" when they say it's going to rain tomorrow. Sure, it may not. Sure, you can dismiss anyone saying "I'm not playing tomorrow, it's gonna rain" as a doom and gloom merchant. Doesn't alter the fact that it's the best advice available and it's probably a good idea to stick your brolly in the car. The alternative is to (possibly) get a soaking.


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## SocketRocket (Nov 24, 2016)

Fyldewhite said:



			It's like saying a weather forecast is "complete guess work" when they say it's going to rain tomorrow. Sure, it may not. Sure, you can dismiss anyone saying "I'm not playing tomorrow, it's gonna rain" as a doom and gloom merchant. Doesn't alter the fact that it's the best advice available and it's probably a good idea to stick your brolly in the car. The alternative is to (possibly) get a soaking.
		
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It's nothing like that.  It's more like saying it may be raining on this day next year and there is a possibility that it may rain on the same day the year after.


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## Foxholer (Nov 24, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			It's nothing like that.  It's more like saying it may be raining on this day next year and there is a possibility that it may rain on the same day the year after.
		
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:rofl: :rofl:
That ridiculous analogy has just destroyed any remaining thoughts about taking anything you post seriously!


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## SocketRocket (Nov 24, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			:rofl: :rofl:
That ridiculous analogy has just destroyed any remaining thoughts about taking anything you post seriously!
		
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Normal puerile clap trap from you. A Mod has just given you a warning about this and you just keep on trying.  Pathetic!

Hammond said " the OBR very specifically says in its report that there is an unusually high degree of uncertainty in the forecasts it is making because of the unusual circumstances"

The OBR has quite a poor record in it's forecasting accuracy.


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## Foxholer (Nov 24, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			Normal puerile clap trap from you. A Mod has just given you a warning about this and you just keep on trying.  Pathetic!

Hammond said "[FONT=&] the OBR very specifically says in its report that there is an unusually high degree of uncertainty in the forecasts it is making because of the unusual circumstances"
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Ah! The abuse has arrived! 

Once again, you haven't answered my question! The one in Post 17 btw!

Btw. The 'uncertainty' works both ways - could be better; could be worse!"

The assumptions about uncertainty are clearly set out in the Executive Summary!


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## SocketRocket (Nov 24, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			Ah! The abuse has arrived! 

Once again, you haven't answered my question! The one in Post 17 btw!
		
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I did answer it but not what you wanted me to say.   I have nothing more to add on that matter.

You really are provoking an infraction.


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## Foxholer (Nov 24, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			I did answer it but not what you wanted me to say.   I have nothing more to add on that matter...
		
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'Have there been any authoritative predictions that give 'better' numbers? I certainly haven't seen any!'

Where please?

Btw. I'm not knocking Brexit! That has to happen imo!


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## Fyldewhite (Nov 24, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			It's nothing like that. It's more like saying it may be raining on this day next year and there is a possibility that it may rain on the same day the year after.
		
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Not really, weather forecasting is over a period of days, economic forecasting is over a period of years. They are different things, but the *principle* is the same. You go with the best forecast available and plan around it. Of course you can make it up yourself, or maybe dismiss anything that says things are going to be bad.....but that would be stupid wouldn't it?

The semantics aside I'm actually glad that the government and other bodies are starting to acknowledge that the cost of Brexit will be enormous over the next few years. It's so easy to say "we will negotiate our own trade agreements" without appreciating the cost of doing so. It takes staff, it takes experts (ironically), it takes IT, office space etc and over considerable time. I'm no expert in trade agreements but in just one department that I do know a bit about (DWP) any idea how many procedural and system changes will be required? How many forms have an EU citizen tickbox? How many lines of code have "IF EUCitizen=1 THEN........). Neither have I but it's a lot, and it all needs to be changed, and there's nobody in place right now to do all that work.


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## SocketRocket (Nov 24, 2016)

Fyldewhite said:



			Not really, weather forecasting is over a period of days, economic forecasting is over a period of years. They are different things, but the *principle* is the same. You go with the best forecast available and plan around it. Of course you can make it up yourself, or maybe dismiss anything that says things are going to be bad.....but that would be stupid wouldn't it?

The semantics aside I'm actually glad that the government and other bodies are starting to acknowledge that the cost of Brexit will be enormous over the next few years. It's so easy to say "we will negotiate our own trade agreements" without appreciating the cost of doing so. It takes staff, it takes experts (ironically), it takes IT, office space etc and over considerable time. I'm no expert in trade agreements but in just one department that I do know a bit about (DWP) any idea how many procedural and system changes will be required? How many forms have an EU citizen tickbox? How many lines of code have "IF EUCitizen=1 THEN........). Neither have I but it's a lot, and it all needs to be changed, and there's nobody in place right now to do all that work.
		
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What you say is a valid point of view but for me I would add that I cannot see how the OBR can forecast with any degree of accuracy until they understand what kind agreement  the EU/UK negotiations will bring.   OK, at this time they have used what they know now in their forcast and that is OK as long as it's clear it has been made on that criteria.


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## Foxholer (Nov 24, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			What you say is a valid point of view but for me I would add that I cannot see how the OBR can forecast with any degree of accuracy until they understand what kind agreement  the EU/UK negotiations will bring.   *OK, at this time they have used what they know now in their forcast and that is OK as long as it's clear it has been made on that criteria.*

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That is EXACTLY what they have done! They also have a 'disclaimer' about possible 'choices and trade-offs'!


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## Hobbit (Nov 24, 2016)

Maybe I'm missing something but yesterday's statements from various bodies all seemed to say the GDP won't grow as quickly as predicted. It didn't say it would shrink. I seem to remember that one of the 'expert' bodies also said the UK would still be the quickest growing economy in the west.

On Radio 2 earlier today John MacDonald, Labour Shadow Chancellor, said that he was very disappointed that the govt were only putting in Â£58 billion to stimulate growth. He then went on to champion the fact that Labour would put in Â£500 billion over the next 10 years... is that not less than Â£50 billion a year.


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 24, 2016)

And the Institute for Fiscal Studies in commenting on the Autumn Statement suggests workers' pay growth prospects are dreadful and that _"This has, for sure, been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s,"_

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

In response a just released statement from the government points the finger for that at the last Labour governmet - well of course it would.  Take no responsibility for the last 8yrs and the austerity policy and the pain the poorer can look forward to.  

Ah - the Jolly Brexiteers say - don't listen to them - too pessimistic - the IFS - what do they know - they clearly don't realise that the land of milk and honey is there for us to make hay in - once we work out where it is; what might be there, and what we'll be able to do when we get there.  It'll be great.  Yeah Right.  I hope so.


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## Hobbit (Nov 24, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			And the Institute for Fiscal Studies in commenting on the Autumn Statement suggests workers' pay growth prospects are dreadful and that _"This has, for sure, been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s,"_

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

In response a just released statement from the government points the finger for that at the last Labour governmet - well of course it would.  Take no responsibility for the last 8yrs and the austerity policy and the pain the poorer can look forward to.  

Ah - the Jolly Brexiteers say - don't listen to them - too pessimistic - the IFS - what do they know - they clearly don't realise that the land of milk and honey is there for us to make hay in - once we work out where it is; what might be there, and what we'll be able to do when we get there.  It'll be great.  Yeah Right.  I hope so.
		
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"Worst decade..." Labour were in govt for the first 4 years of that decade and handed a  (Gordon) Brown mess over. I've just finished reading a book on the Blair years. Yes he was bad for the country, but Brown was an absolute disgrace as a Chancellor. 

As for your last 8 years comment... The Coalition govt was formed in 2010, not 2008. Labour were still in power 8 years ago. 6 years ago the Coalition govt was still dealing with the mess, a mess so huge it wouldn't be put right overnight, or even in a few years.

But as usual, its all the Tories fault, in your eyes. Even John MacDonald screwed up the figures in his reposte earlier today. 

Thankfully the latest figures for who would be in govt if a snap election is called is still not Labour.


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## SocketRocket (Nov 24, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			And the Institute for Fiscal Studies in commenting on the Autumn Statement suggests workers' pay growth prospects are dreadful and that _"This has, for sure, been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s,"_

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

In response a just released statement from the government points the finger for that at the last Labour governmet - well of course it would.  Take no responsibility for the last 8yrs and the austerity policy and the pain the poorer can look forward to.  

Ah - the Jolly Brexiteers say - don't listen to them - too pessimistic - the IFS - what do they know - they clearly don't realise that the land of milk and honey is there for us to make hay in - once we work out where it is; what might be there, and what we'll be able to do when we get there.  It'll be great.  Yeah Right.  I hope so.
		
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I know some say I am making a habit of attacking your posts but for goodness sake help me out here and don't post this type of nonsense!

Do you honestly believe that it has been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s.  I dont know what Britain you grew up in but the one I grew up in had living standards where you could only dream of living in the last decade. People were poor, social benefits were just about non existent, food was rationed, no televisions, cars, mobile phones, computers, central heating, fashionable clothes; need I go on without sounding like I am quoting Monty Python.

Comments like the one you quoted are untrue and extremely distorting reality.


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 24, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			I know some say I am making a habit of attacking your posts but for goodness sake help me out here and don't post this type of nonsense!

Do you honestly believe that it has been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s.  I dont know what Britain you grew up in but the one I grew up in had living standards where you could only dream of living in the last decade. People were poor, social benefits were just about non existent, food was rationed, no televisions, cars, mobile phones, computers, central heating, fashionable clothes; need I go on without sounding like I am quoting Monty Python.

Comments like the one you quoted are untrue and extremely distorting reality.
		
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Don't shoot the messenger please.  And so in your view the _Institute for Fiscal Studies_ should join the _Office for Budget Responsibility_ on the Brexit naughty step for saying the wrong thing about the past.  Which is handy as it let's us dismiss their forecasts.  Ah well.


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## SocketRocket (Nov 24, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			Don't shoot the messenger please.  And so in your view the _Institute for Fiscal Studies_ should join the _Office for Budget Responsibility_ on the Brexit naughty step for saying the wrong thing about the past.  Which is handy as it let's us dismiss their forecasts.  Ah well.
		
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You used the statement to support your view so I ask *you* the question:

Do you honestly believe that it has been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s?


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## Tashyboy (Nov 24, 2016)

Nice to see the forum has woken up a day later than what I said in post number three. All of these figures are based upon assessments by people who have got figures by assessments wrong in the past. Very comforting indeed. In fact the figures have now been adjusted because of Brexit. So the experts/ people never considered the fact that we could actually vote to leave.


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## Hacker Khan (Nov 24, 2016)

Pretty sure they just said the prospects for wage growth are dreadful, there will be very little growth in average incomes whilst the cost of living will rise. So living standards as measured by income growth are not looking good. Not quite sure the point that you can now get Iphone 7s when you could not 40 years ago is that relevant to this study.


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 24, 2016)

Hacker Khan said:



			Pretty sure they just said the prospects for wage growth are dreadful, there will be very little growth in average incomes whilst the cost of living will rise. So living standards as measured by income growth are not looking good. Not quite sure the point that you can now get Iphone 7s when you could not 40 years ago is that relevant to this study.
		
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I am fairly sure that most sensible folk will see it that way as well.


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## USER1999 (Nov 24, 2016)

Hacker Khan said:



			Pretty sure they just said the prospects for wage growth are dreadful, there will be very little growth in average incomes whilst the cost of living will rise. So living standards as measured by income growth are not looking good. Not quite sure the point that you can now get Iphone 7s when you could not 40 years ago is that relevant to this study.
		
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Jeez, and with naff all interest rates,  zero pay rises, pension going down the pan, investments also, I didn't realise I was so well off. And that's before brexit. Seriously, it can't get worse for me, but it might get better. I'll take that chance, because from where I'm standing, it can't get that much worse.


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 24, 2016)

murphthemog said:



			Jeez, and with naff all interest rates,  zero pay rises, pension going down the pan, investments also, I didn't realise I was so well off. And that's before brexit. Seriously, it can't get worse for me, but it might get better. I'll take that chance, because from where I'm standing, it can't get that much worse.
		
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Oh it can...pay cuts; pension going further down the pan and doesn't recover - and the poor and destitute rising up against those who have something. And the same for your children and grandchildren.


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## Hobbit (Nov 24, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			Oh it can...pay cuts; pension going further down the pan and doesn't recover - and the poor and destitute rising up against those who have something. And the same for your children and grandchildren.
		
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Project Fear alert!


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## SocketRocket (Nov 24, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			Oh it can...pay cuts; pension going further down the pan and doesn't recover - and the poor and destitute rising up against those who have something. And the same for your children and grandchildren.
		
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Can you please answer my question?


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## Foxholer (Nov 24, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			Can you please answer my question?
		
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Oh the irony! 

:rofl: :rofl:


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## SocketRocket (Nov 24, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			Oh the irony! 

:rofl: :rofl:
		
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I'm trying not to get us both an infraction by refraining from raising to your continued stalking. Maybe you could grow up and do the same.


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## USER1999 (Nov 25, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			Oh it can...pay cuts; pension going further down the pan and doesn't recover - and the poor and destitute rising up against those who have something. And the same for your children and grandchildren.
		
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If I put 20 k in my pension today, at best, it will be worth about 20 k in 15 years time. It might be worth nothing. 20 k will give an annuity of about 800 pounds a year. Wow. If I lose that, I'm not much worse off than before.


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## Crazyface (Nov 25, 2016)

Jimaroid said:



			Better guess than some bloke's opinion down the pub though.
		
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Not much


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 25, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			Can you please answer my question?
		
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The statement by the Director of the IFS was in respect of *improvement *in Living Standards looking forward to 2021 as brought about by increasing wages; he is clearly not talking about *absolute* living standards.  But if you choose to criticise and dismiss his analysis and views on an incorrect reading of what he is saying, then I can't help you on that other than suggest that you re-read what he says.

_"Half of the wage growth projected for the next five years back in March is not now projected to happen. On these projections real wages will, remarkably, still be below their 2008 levels in 2021," Mr Johnson said.

"One cannot stress enough how dreadful that is - more than a decade without real earnings growth. We have certainly not seen a period remotely like it in the last 70 years."_


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## Foxholer (Nov 25, 2016)

Foxholer said:





SocketRocket said:



			I did answer it but not what you wanted me to say.....
		
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'Have there been any authoritative predictions that give 'better' numbers? I certainly haven't seen any!'

Where please?
		
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SocketRocket said:





Foxholer said:



			Oh the irony! 

:rofl: :rofl:
		
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I'm trying not to get us both an infraction by refraining from raising to your continued stalking....
		
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Answering the question would work! 

As for 'stalking'...Pah! That's in the same 'daftness' category as your earlier analogy!


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 25, 2016)

Hobbit said:



			Project Fear alert!
		
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But they could - unless you choose to ignore the forecasts of the recognised expertise.  How long do Brexiteers go on saying everything is going to be great and that there is a land of milk and honey within our grasp.  And I ask '_tell me what it is like, how do we get there, what do we find?_'  And so they tell me to stop being stupid - stop being so negative - it is a land of milk and honey.  And I say _'really - is that it? A land of milk and honey that we will get to somehow, someday - and when we do, we don't know what we'll find other than milk and honey?' _

I live my life having a strong faith - but I struggle to have faith in *anything *I hear from Brexiteers, and I hear very little of any substance, and when the views of Sir John Major are being dismissed because he had a fling with Edwina Currie, and hence his judgement is clearly flawed and can therefore should ignored.  I despair.  Come on - that's childish, pathetic and frankly irresponsible.


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## Old Skier (Nov 25, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			But they could - unless you choose to ignore the forecasts of the recognised expertise.  How long do Brexiteers go on saying everything is going to be great and that there is a land of milk and honey within our grasp.  And I ask '_tell me what it is like, how do we get there, what do we find?_'  And so they tell me to stop being stupid - stop being so negative - it is a land of milk and honey.  And I say _'really - is that it? A land of milk and honey that we will get to somehow, someday - and when we do, we don't know what we'll find other than milk and honey?' _

I live my life having a strong faith - but I struggle to have faith in *anything *I hear from Brexiteers, and I hear very little of any substance, and when the views of Sir John Major are being dismissed because he had a fling with Edwina Currie, and hence his judgement is clearly flawed and can therefore should ignored.  I despair.  Come on - that's childish, pathetic and frankly irresponsible.
		
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Nobody thinks the world of milk and honey awaits but what you fail to accept that the gloom and doom scenario is just as unlikely to happen as is the land of milk and honey.

The world is what it is - spend more time worrying about what you can do something about rather than rant about what you have no control over.


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 25, 2016)

Old Skier said:



			Nobody thinks the world of milk and honey awaits but what you fail to accept that the gloom and doom scenario is just as unlikely to happen as is the land of milk and honey.

The world is what it is - spend more time worrying about what you can do something about rather than rant about what you have no control over.
		
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What makes you think the scenarios being painted by the experts and very experienced previous PMs are unlikely to happen?  They may not be talking of the collapse of society - they are certainly telling us that things are going to get worse - and possibly quite a lot worse for as long as they can foresee.  And on the other side *nobody *can tell us what the land of milk and honey might actually look like - largely because none of the experts are predicting a sweet smelling one.


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 25, 2016)

Hobbit said:



			Project Fear alert!
		
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It worked very well for the Naesayers when brainwashing the 'auld yins' during the Scottish referendum.

I suppose you will say 'that was different'.


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## Old Skier (Nov 25, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			What makes you think the scenarios being painted by the experts and very experienced previous PMs are unlikely to happen?  They may not be talking of the collapse of society - they are certainly telling us that things are going to get worse - and possibly quite a lot worse for as long as they can foresee.  And on the other side *nobody *can tell us what the land of milk and honey might actually look like - largely because none of the experts are predicting a sweet smelling one.
		
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For someone who fails to take account of the experts from the other side I think your post rather strange.


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## Foxholer (Nov 25, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			It worked very well for the Naesayers when brainwashing the 'auld yins' during the Scottish referendum.
....
		
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Did it?

Perhaps the support for Independence simply wasn't as much as had been hoped for?


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 25, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			Did it?

Perhaps the support for Independence simply wasn't as much as had been hoped for? 

Click to expand...

http://wingsoverscotland.com/what-they-expect-you-to-believe/

Yup...still at it:lol:

[OT For those banging on about GERS look up Dr Craig Dalzell's....Beyond Gers. It just might give you an eye opener]


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## Old Skier (Nov 25, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			I live my life having a strong faith - but I struggle to have faith in *anything *

Click to expand...

Listen to Robert Choke today on the Daily Politics and perhaps your faith might be restored.


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## ColchesterFC (Nov 25, 2016)

For someone who is keen to accept that Brexit will be bad for the UK and to accept the financial projections showing that the UK will be worse off it seems strange that you have linked to an article with the quote..... 

"Despite the efforts of economic analysts to divine the state of the economy several years hence, the only certain conclusion one can reliably reach on such things is that these predictions will be wrong to greater or lesser degrees, one way or the other."

So is it only the bad forecasts for the UK (post Brexit) that are correct and the bad ones for an independent Scotland are wrong?


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 25, 2016)

ColchesterFC said:



			For someone who is keen to accept that Brexit will be bad for the UK and to accept the financial projections showing that the UK will be worse off it seems strange that you have linked to an article with the quote..... 

"Despite the efforts of economic analysts to divine the state of the economy several years hence, the only certain conclusion one can reliably reach on such things is that these predictions will be wrong to greater or lesser degrees, one way or the other."

So is it only the bad forecasts for the UK (post Brexit) that are correct and the bad ones for an independent Scotland are wrong?
		
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You are quite right - all forecasting has uncertainty.  But if you have past performance and data to start wit,h and a reasonable understanding of the the future context and environment in which you are forecasting - then you can model the sources of error associated with that which you are modelling, and hence your estimates of the uncertainty associated with your predictions will be lower.  

So I would guess that the forecasting accuracy associated with Brexit is not dissimilar to that associated with an Indy Scotland outside of the EU.  The uncertainly associated with Indy Scotland in the EU will be not too far from that or a UK in the EU.


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## Foxholer (Nov 25, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



http://wingsoverscotland.com/what-they-expect-you-to-believe/

Yup...still at it:lol:

[OT For those banging on about GERS look up Dr Craig Dalzell's....Beyond Gers. It just might give you an eye opener]
		
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I fail to see any connection! Perhaps the 'fear' is simply people's imagination - seeing anti-indy conspiracy in everything! Though I guess some would say that's a demonstration of how successful 'Project Fear' was/is!


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 25, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			I fail to see any connection! Perhaps the 'fear' is simply people's imagination - seeing anti-indy conspiracy in everything! Though I guess some would say that's a demonstration of how successful 'Project Fear' was/is! 

Click to expand...

You could be right, so many Brexiters fell for that Bus and Immigrant queue scam used in 2016.
Ignore the truth and make up any old rubbish that the idiots will fall for.

Anyway we are off topic, sorry.


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## Foxholer (Nov 25, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			You could be right, so many Brexiters fell for that Bus and Immigrant queue scam used in 2016.
*Ignore the truth and make up any old rubbish that the idiots will fall for.
*
Anyway we are off topic, sorry.
		
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Seems to be 'the new way'! Whoever would have thought that political campaigns could be dirty affairs!


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## ColchesterFC (Nov 25, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			You are quite right - all forecasting has uncertainty.  But if you have past performance and data to start wit,h *and a reasonable understanding of the the future context and environment in which you are forecasting* - then you can model the sources of error associated with that which you are modelling, and hence your estimates of the uncertainty associated with your predictions will be lower.  

So I would guess that the *forecasting accuracy associated with Brexit* is not dissimilar to that associated with an Indy Scotland outside of the EU.  The uncertainly associated with Indy Scotland in the EU will be not too far from that or a UK in the EU.
		
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The two bits in bold seem to be the key. Until details of any agreement between the UK and EU have been reached there can't be an understanding of the future context and environment for the forecasts. And this is equally true of any forecast for an independent Scotland whether in or out of the EU. If Scotland voted for independence, any longer term forecast would need to take into account the separation agreement between Scotland and rUK with regards to any share of UK debts etc. Until this is known the forecasts are pretty much just guesswork or more likely worst case scenarios.


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## Foxholer (Nov 25, 2016)

ColchesterFC said:



			The two bits in bold seem to be the key. Until details of any agreement between the UK and EU have been reached there can't be an understanding of the future context and environment for the forecasts. And this is equally true of any forecast for an independent Scotland whether in or out of the EU. If Scotland voted for independence, any longer term forecast would need to take into account the separation agreement between Scotland and rUK with regards to any share of UK debts etc. Until this is known the forecasts are pretty much just guesswork or more likely worst case scenarios.
		
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That'll be a long-winded 'I agree' then! 

So do I btw!

I'd suggest it was more 'most likely' than 'worst case' that they used - though they could well match!! How such levels of uncertainty are factored into predictions - and documented - depends on the approaches of those that are making the predictions! That's where the predictions of 'independent' bodies like IMF and OBR carry more weight than those of others! That said, the exact numbers are very unlikely to match reality!


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## Old Skier (Nov 25, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			OBR carry more weight than those of others! That said, the exact numbers are very unlikely to match reality!
		
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The dear Mr Choke admitted today that if the OBR predictions were 50% correct it would be a bonus.


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## Old Skier (Nov 25, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			So I would guess that the forecasting accuracy associated with Brexit is not dissimilar to that associated with an Indy Scotland outside of the EU.  The uncertainly associated with Indy Scotland in the EU will be not too far from that or a UK in the EU.
		
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Or the forecasting accuracy associated by the remainers. 

Can you not accept that the forecasts of the remainers has been as poor if not worse.


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 25, 2016)

ColchesterFC said:



			The two bits in bold seem to be the key. Until details of any agreement between the UK and EU have been reached there can't be an understanding of the future context and environment for the forecasts. And this is equally true of any forecast for an independent Scotland whether in or out of the EU. If Scotland voted for independence, any longer term forecast would need to take into account the separation agreement between Scotland and rUK with regards to any share of UK debts etc. Until this is known the forecasts are pretty much just guesswork or more likely worst case scenarios.
		
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And so how can we have any confidence whatsoever that a Brexitted UK will be OK and not a economic disaster.  The only possible UK-EU agreement that is known for sure is a 'hard' Brexit - and most commentators - and MPs - think that that would be awful for the UK - even although many 'hard'-lines - and others - actually want one.  

It seems to me that the more I hear from Brexiteers (not so much here as elsewhere) about  being willing to risk being financially worse off - even considerably worse off - the more I am coming to the conclusion that many just want to leave the EU because of immigration; that 'taking back control' is about controlling immigration; and that leaving is nothing really to do with any possible future economic benefits.  The current generation seem to be thinking that the economic price for leaving is one worth future generations paying for.  And our MPs should not allow that to happen.

Come on in Sir John Major and Tony Blair.


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## Foxholer (Nov 25, 2016)

Old Skier said:



			Or the forecasting accuracy associated by the remainers. 

*Can you not accept that the forecasts of the remainers has been as poor if not worse.*

Click to expand...

They did/do have the advantage of rather more certainty for their predictions! As stated in my OP, the actual predictions of some negative effects, even before A50 is invoked, seem to have been correct! There's no real surprise in that, but the idea that Brexiters can talk that out of happening, or get the independent announcers of such news (or predictions) removed, strikes me as obscene!


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## ColchesterFC (Nov 25, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			And so *how can we have any confidence whatsoever that a Brexitted UK will be OK and not a economic disaster.*  The only possible UK-EU agreement that is known for sure is a 'hard' Brexit - and most commentators - and MPs - think that that would be awful for the UK - even although many 'hard'-lines - and others - actually want one.
		
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We can't. We currently have no idea what the UK outside of the Eu will be like. I have a feeling that we will end up out of the EU with no agreement in place and using WTO rules for access to the European market. I just hope that we have some very good people in charge of negotiating our trade agreements with the rest of the world as I think that it will be those deals that will decide how bad or good Brexit will be for the UK. If we can get decent deals with the rest of the world then it will soften the blow of not being in a free trade agreement with the EU.


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## SocketRocket (Nov 25, 2016)

ColchesterFC said:



			We can't. We currently have no idea what the UK outside of the Eu will be like. I have a feeling that we will end up out of the EU with no agreement in place and using WTO rules for access to the European market. I just hope that we have some very good people in charge of negotiating our trade agreements with the rest of the world as I think that it will be those deals that will decide how bad or good Brexit will be for the UK. If we can get decent deals with the rest of the world then it will soften the blow of not being in a free trade agreement with the EU.
		
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I see the EU are to have a free trade agreement with the Ukraine  similar to the recent Canadian agreement.  This will not insist on free movement or supremacy of the ECJ or even making payments into the EU ,  Why would the UK be forced into a different type of arrangement  unless solely as a punishment for leaving which would cut off the EU's nose to spite it's face.


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## SocketRocket (Nov 25, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			Answering the question would work! 

As for 'stalking'...Pah! That's in the same 'daftness' category as your earlier analogy!
		
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Before I attempt to give an example of an authoritative opinion I have to say once again I have no intention of debating anything with you, I will make my posts separate to your childish attacks..  You make a policy of attacking my posts and I would put this to you:  Can you show evidence of anywhere I have attacked your posts or initiated any insults against you.   I continually receive attacks from you though.


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## Foxholer (Nov 25, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			I see the EU are to have a free trade agreement with the Ukraine  similar to the recent Canadian agreement.  This will not insist on free movement or supremacy of the ECJ or even making payments into the EU ,  Why would the UK be forced into a different type of arrangement  unless solely as a punishment for leaving which would cut off the EU's nose to spite it's face.
		
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This would be pretty much ideal! Though I think Ukraine's (and Georgia's) deal is part of phased approach to integrate it (them) into Europe proper. Along with those countries aims to loosen the hold Russia has over them!

Do you think it (Ukraine style FTA) is achievable? And would the EU really care about losing a marginal amount of their already relatively small amount (8% from memory) of trade with UK? They are in a significantly more powerful negotiating position, though that's no reason to simply admit defeat on that front! It's rather more like losing some skin off their nose, as opposed to cutting off the entire thing! 

The upcoming French and German elections could well have an impact on attitudes too - though whether potential gains by 'the right' will mean a hardening or softening of attitude remains to be seen!


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## SocketRocket (Nov 25, 2016)

Here is an article from someone who is an authoritative source that holds an opinion on the way organisations like the Treasury  have put out questionable predictions on the effects of Brexit.

http://brexitcentral.wpengine.com/p...ong-yet-failed-abandon-unjustified-pessimism/


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## Foxholer (Nov 25, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			Before I attempt to give an example of an authoritative opinion I have to say once again I have no intention of debating anything with you, I will make my posts separate to your *childish attacks*..  You make a policy of attacking my posts and I would put this to you:  *Can you show evidence of anywhere I have attacked your posts or initiated any insults against you.*   I continually receive attacks from you though.
		
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Yes! There's an example!

But let's not get into THAT discussion - for reasons you have already mentioned!

The refusal to debate is bizarre! If any point being made is correct and strong enough, it will surely stand up to debate. If it's not, it should be be shot down/countered appropriately! I'm certainly prepared for that to happen to any I make!

Personal abuse has no place in any debate though!

Now! About that example of authoritative opinion...Independent please, other 'authoritative' doesn't apply! As part of 'Economists for Brexit' Prof Minson's is certainly biased!


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## SocketRocket (Nov 25, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			Yes! There's an example!

But let's not get into THAT discussion - for reasons you have already mentioned!

The refusal to debate is bizarre! If any point being made is correct and strong enough, it will surely stand up to debate. If it's not, it should be be shot down/countered appropriately! I'm certainly prepared for that to happen to any I make!

Personal abuse has no place in any debate though!

Now! About that example of authoritative opinion...Independent please, other 'authoritative' doesn't apply! As part of 'Economists for Brexit' Prof Minson's is certainly biased!
		
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I cannot debate with you when you continually make sarcastic comments and use Smilies in an attempt to humiliate.  If you want to debate the words without the sarcasm then fine otherwise just don't bother as it will not create a sensible adult outcome.

Regarding your question read my previous.


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 25, 2016)

In your opinion he is authoritative of course, as he represents your view...........others might see it as, some unknown Cardiff professor said.................


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## Foxholer (Nov 25, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			I cannot debate with you when you continually make sarcastic comments and use Smilies in an attempt to humiliate.
		
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:rofl:


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## ColchesterFC (Nov 25, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			In your opinion he is authoritative of course, as he represents your view...........others might see it as, some unknown Cardiff professor said.................
		
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Much like Dr Craig Dalzell who you linked to earlier who represents your view..........while others might see it as, some unknown Scottish bloke said..........


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## SocketRocket (Nov 25, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			In your opinion he is authoritative of course, as he represents your view...........others might see it as, some unknown Cardiff professor said.................
		
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You are of course entitled to that opinion but he is hardly unknown.  Would he be more authoritative if he didn't represent my view?


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## SocketRocket (Nov 25, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			:rofl:



Click to expand...

I tried.


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 25, 2016)

ColchesterFC said:



			Much like Dr Craig Dalzell who you linked to earlier who represents your view..........while others might see it as, some unknown Scottish bloke said.......... 

Click to expand...

God you are sooooo predictable,
The difference being, I never said he was 'authoritative'.


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 25, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			You are of course entitled to that opinion but he is hardly unknown.  Would he be more authoritative if he didn't represent my view?
		
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No, he would have just been a professor.


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## Foxholer (Nov 25, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			In your opinion he is authoritative of course, as he represents your view...........others might see it as, some unknown Cardiff professor said.................
		
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ColchesterFC said:



			Much like Dr Craig Dalzell who you linked to earlier who represents your view..........while others might see it as, some unknown Scottish bloke said.......... 

Click to expand...

The very reason why such publications are not 'authoritative' - generally lack of independence, publication of assumptions etc! Fine for an 'supporting opinion' if that's what/all you want to use it for though!

Little difference


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## ColchesterFC (Nov 25, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			God you are sooooo predictable,
The difference being, I never said he was 'authoritative'.
		
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No but you did say "For those banging on about GERS look up Dr Craig Dalzell's....Beyond Gers. It just might give you an eye opener". Why would it be an eye opener if it is just some random bloke?


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 25, 2016)

ColchesterFC said:



			No but you did say "For those banging on about GERS look up Dr Craig Dalzell's....Beyond Gers. It just might give you an eye opener". Why would it be an eye opener if it is just some random bloke?
		
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As I said soooooooooooo predictable.


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## Hobbit (Nov 25, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			As I said soooooooooooo predictable.
		
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Irony alert!!

You do realise the GERS report is published by the Scottish government. That same SNP led government you extoll endlessly. Or do you prefer to get your truth from dodgy newspaper articles?


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## harpo_72 (Nov 25, 2016)

Not sure where this thread has gone ... 
personally not that impressed with the budget, think the middle classes have once again been tasked with paying for it. Why raise basic wages, why not reduce benefits? Why not chase outstanding tax bills from large companies? Why not collect tax retrospectively from those who are profiting from the British public but are based in tax free off shore havens? 

Hopefully when election time comes, we will have all flavours to choose from but the key point will be "leaving" i.e. To leave there has to be a voted majority in the house. That would be the full legal position. I may even vote tactically!


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 25, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			Here is an article from someone who is an authoritative source that holds an opinion on the way organisations like the Treasury  have put out questionable predictions on the effects of Brexit.

http://brexitcentral.wpengine.com/p...ong-yet-failed-abandon-unjustified-pessimism/

Click to expand...

That'll be Patrick Minford of the 'We should just walk away from the EU now' brigade,

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/696854/patrick-minford-brexit-economist-theresa-may-mark-carney

And the sooner the better because delay is putting off the start of the 'boom' days.  Right - just what the CBI Conference was calling for - let's just walk off the cliff edge and see how we get on.  Funny how business and industry didn't seem to fancy that idea too much.


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## MegaSteve (Nov 26, 2016)

Was away last week and tend to listen to the radio over watching the box or reading national papers... One program was talking about the OBR and their ineptitude on getting their forecasts anywhere near right... Now, if these were real people trying to hold down proper jobs in the real world... This lack of productivity would almost certainly see them being shown the door...


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## SocketRocket (Nov 26, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			That'll be Patrick Minford of the 'We should just walk away from the EU now' brigade,

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/696854/patrick-minford-brexit-economist-theresa-may-mark-carney

And the sooner the better because delay is putting off the start of the 'boom' days.  Right - just what the CBI Conference was calling for - let's just walk off the cliff edge and see how we get on.  Funny how business and industry didn't seem to fancy that idea too much.
		
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That's a very lazy post.  Rather than dismissing his view why dont you look at the link I posted that outlines some of his ideas and explain how they are incorrect.

He has not suggested we 'Just walk off the edge and see how we get on' he has explained clearly how in the EU we are missing out on international trade and lower World prices and have the opportunity to be better off.   He also explains clearly that even the worst case scenario of us adopting WTO  rules is not a disaster like so many negative thinkers are portraying.   Try opening your mind a bit to other options.


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Nov 26, 2016)

SocketRocket said:



			That's a very lazy post.  Rather than dismissing his view why dont you look at the link I posted that outlines some of his ideas and explain how they are incorrect.

He has not suggested we 'Just walk off the edge and see how we get on' he has explained clearly how in the EU we are missing out on international trade and lower World prices and have the opportunity to be better off.   He also explains clearly that even the worst case scenario of us adopting WTO  rules is not a disaster like so many negative thinkers are portraying.   Try opening your mind a bit to other options.
		
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If you recall I did listen to him fairly recently and posted his views on what he thought Brexit should look like - you agreed with most of his points - but not all.  I can't find that post I made and your response.  So yes - I have been listening to Minford - for quite some time.

And you are quite right he has not said we should walk off the edge of a cliff - of course he wouldn't - he said we should leave IMMEDIATELY.  And what do the CBI think of that?  Well not a lot...From an open letter 6th Oct signed by the CBI I other business orgs

_...leaving the EU without any preferential trade arrangement and defaulting to trading by standard World Trade Organisation rules would have significant costs for British exporters and importers, as well as those in their supply chains. 90% of UK goods trade with the EU would be subject to new tariffs. That would mean 20% in extra costs for our food and drink industry and 10% for our car producers. Every credible study that has been conducted has shown that this WTO option would do serious and lasting damage to the UK economy and those of our trading partners. The Government should give certainty to business by immediately ruling this option out under any circumstances._

http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/cbi-signs-open-letter-to-government-on-brexit-negotiations/

So not exactly aligned with Minford's thinking

But what do they know about business and industry.


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## Old Skier (Nov 27, 2016)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



_...leaving the EU without any preferential trade arrangement and defaulting to trading by standard World Trade Organisation rules would have significant costs for British exporters and importers, as well as those in their supply chains. 90% of UK goods trade with the EU would be subject to new tariffs. That would mean 20% in extra costs for our food and drink industry and 10% for our car producers. Every credible study that has been conducted has shown that this WTO option would do serious and lasting damage to the UK economy and those of our trading partners. The Government should give certainty to business by immediately ruling this option out under any circumstances
_
But what do they know about business and industry.
		
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It seems that there are some major players who don't agree with the CBI and since the referendum have indicated some very major investment in their company's , Jaguar even made a statement to the fact after the autumn statement. 

I know now it's not in your will accept any of the positives on leaving the EU but it appears that there are some major players in business and industry who do. But what do they know.


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 27, 2016)

Par for the course.
Scotland's payment share of the UK infrastructure fund Â£1.9 billion, of which it receives Â£830 million whilst two London Palaces get Â£4,400 million.


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## Old Skier (Nov 27, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			Par for the course.
Scotland's payment share of the UK infrastructure fund Â£1.9 billion, of which it receives Â£830 million whilst two London Palaces get Â£4,400 million.
		
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Nothing being paid towards the upkeep for the shed on the hill then.

It's about time you started paying something out to your landlords ðŸ˜‚


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## Hobbit (Nov 27, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			Par for the course.
Scotland's payment share of the UK infrastructure fund Â£1.9 billion, of which it receives Â£830 million whilst two London Palaces get Â£4,400 million.
		
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Sounds fair to me. For example, unless Scotland has its own DVLA, there's a share to be paid out. That no doubt applies to many of the UK wide elements of infrastructure that are outside of Scotland.


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 27, 2016)

Hobbit said:



			Sounds fair to me. For example, unless Scotland has its own DVLA, there's a share to be paid out. That no doubt applies to many of the UK wide elements of infrastructure that are outside of Scotland.
		
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errm....we are talking new additional infrastructure funding in the thread named Autumn statement.
Scotland does have its DVLA.....it is called DVLA. Perhaps you thought it belonged to England, common mistake.


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 27, 2016)

Old Skier said:



			Nothing being paid towards the upkeep for the shed on the hill then.

It's about time you started paying something out to your landlords &#128514;
		
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Scottish Parliament is funded through the Block Grant.

One click on Google would have given you that info.
You seem to be a follower of the new Brexiters style.
Act first think later


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## MegaSteve (Nov 27, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			errm....we are talking new additional infrastructure funding in the thread named Autumn statement.
Scotland does have its DVLA.....it is called DVLA. Perhaps you thought it belonged to England, common mistake.

Click to expand...


There was me thinking it 'belonged' to Wales...

Same as the palaces that happen to be in London... 
They 'belong' to us all...


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 27, 2016)

MegaSteve said:



			There was me thinking it 'belonged' to Wales...

Same as the palaces that happen to be in London... 
They 'belong' to us all...
		
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That's good to hear when we come to divvy up after Indyref 2.


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## SocketRocket (Nov 27, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			errm....we are talking new additional infrastructure funding in the thread named Autumn statement.
Scotland does have its DVLA.....it is called DVLA. Perhaps you thought it belonged to England, common mistake.

Click to expand...

If you read what others post before replying you may make a bit more sense.

When he says 'Own DVLA' he means one that they OWN.   Last time I looked it was a UK asset and located  in Wales.


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## Old Skier (Nov 27, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			Scottish Parliament is funded through the Block Grant.

One click on Google would have given you that info.
You seem to be a follower of the new Brexiters style.
Act first think later
		
Click to expand...

Your geography or understand of what I refer to appears to differ. 

PS the build of the shed you refer to was payed for initially by the UK tax payer.


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## Foxholer (Nov 27, 2016)

Old Skier said:



			Your geography or understand of what I refer to appears to differ. 

PS the build of the shed you refer to was payed for initially by the UK tax payer.
		
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And hugely over budget too!


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## Hobbit (Nov 27, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			errm....we are talking new additional infrastructure funding in the thread named Autumn statement.
Scotland does have its DVLA.....it is called DVLA. Perhaps you thought it belonged to England, common mistake.

Click to expand...

...erm, common mistake is your common mistake. It's "own," not owned. As usual, it's you that's missed the point that others seemed to have no bother understanding.

If the UK leaves the EU do you think the EU will be doing any divvying up? If Scotland leaves the U.K. do you think it should get its cake and eat it?


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 27, 2016)

Hobbit said:



			...erm, common mistake is your common mistake. It's "own," not owned. As usual, it's you that's missed the point that others seemed to have no bother understanding.

If the UK leaves the EU do you think the EU will be doing any divvying up? If Scotland leaves the U.K. do you think it should get its cake and eat it?
		
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I see you have the same views as UKIP's bankroller.

That's good, so Scotland can leave the UK without picking up it's share of the UK debt, RESULT.


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## Old Skier (Nov 27, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			That's good, so Scotland can leave the UK
		
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Is this part of your strategy.  Say it often enough and it will happen. &#128514;&#128514;&#128514;


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 27, 2016)

Old Skier said:



			Is this part of your strategy.  Say it often enough and it will happen. &#128514;&#128514;&#128514;
		
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Do you ever check your posts before you send them?
They do not seem to make much sense.


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## Old Skier (Nov 27, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			Do you ever check your posts before you send them?
They do not seem to make much sense.
		
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Yes but I prefer your fantasy post to cheer me up during moments of boredom.


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## Hobbit (Nov 28, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			I see you have the same views as UKIP's bankroller.

That's good, so Scotland can leave the UK without picking up it's share of the UK debt, RESULT.
		
Click to expand...

Once again you seem to be having trouble understanding English. I didn't express a view, I asked you a question.

But moving on from that, you've often spoken of taking 10% of the UK's assets but conveniently forget 10% of its debt. Do you think the UK is entitled to 90% of Scotland's assets?


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 28, 2016)

Hobbit said:



			Once again you seem to be having trouble understanding English. I didn't express a view, I asked you a question.

But moving on from that, you've often spoken of taking 10% of the UK's assets but conveniently forget 10% of its debt. Do you think the UK is entitled to 90% of Scotland's assets?
		
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Oh dear, you seem to have confused yourself..........my light hearted response was about the comments of Aaron Banks and his supporters [inc. a few misguided souls on here] saying that England and Wales should kick Scotland out of the UK. Not sure what they intend to do with NI.


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## Old Skier (Nov 28, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			[inc. a few misguided souls on here]
		
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I don't think your misguided. Just someone who has no interest in the democratic process in the UK.  You need to stop concentrating on your blog and get out more.


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 28, 2016)

Old Skier said:



			I don't think your misguided. Just someone who has no interest in the democratic process in the UK.  You need to stop concentrating on your blog and get out more.
		
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or ...please stop posting contradictory views to Old Skier.......naw:lol:


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## MegaSteve (Nov 28, 2016)

@DfT


I assume your previously stated preference of devomax has now been put to one side... And, that 'full on' independence is the only option for Scotland?


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## Old Skier (Nov 28, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			or ...please stop posting contradictory views to Old Skier.......naw:lol:
		
Click to expand...

Post away.  It's entertaining.


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 28, 2016)

MegaSteve said:



			@DfT


I assume your previously stated preference of devomax has now been put to one side... And, that 'full on' independence is the only option for Scotland?
		
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Like many Scots my views changed after the EU referendum.

Never ending Tory rule and Scotland paying 8.9% of the Westminster government's sharply rising Â£2 Trillion debt does not seem like a good forward plan to me.


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## delc (Nov 28, 2016)

harpo_72 said:



			Not sure where this thread has gone ... 
personally not that impressed with the budget, think the middle classes have once again been tasked with paying for it. Why raise basic wages, why not reduce benefits? Why not chase outstanding tax bills from large companies? Why not collect tax retrospectively from those who are profiting from the British public but are based in tax free off shore havens? 

Hopefully when election time comes, we will have all flavours to choose from but the key point will be "leaving" i.e. To leave there has to be a voted majority in the house. That would be the full legal position. I may even vote tactically!
		
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Did anybody notice the number of Stealth Taxes in the Autumn Statement, particularly the hike in Insurance tax, and the removal of tax free benefits for working people?!!!


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## MegaSteve (Nov 28, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			Like many Scots my views changed after the EU referendum.

Never ending Tory rule and Scotland paying 8.9% of the Westminster government's sharply rising Â£2 Trillion debt does not seem like a good forward plan to me.
		
Click to expand...


We met a Scottish couple, whilst away last week, they said they were 'devomaxers' but voted [in indyref1] to remain.... As out, could see their kids losing their jobs... No, I didn't ask why their kids employment was dependent on staying part of UK... Anyhow, they also voted remain in the EU referendum... Although they didn't foresee indyref2 happening anytime soon their concern was how the SNP would fund their "grand plans" in the future...


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## MegaSteve (Nov 28, 2016)

delc said:



			Did anybody notice the number of Stealth Taxes in the Autumn Statement, particularly the hike in Insurance tax, and the removal of tax free benefits for working people?!!!  

Click to expand...


Part of life's certainties nowadays 'stealth taxes'... 
Far easier to collect than tax 'big business' properly...


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## Foxholer (Nov 28, 2016)

delc said:



			Did anybody notice the number of Stealth Taxes in the Autumn Statement, particularly the hike in Insurance tax, and the removal of tax free benefits for working people?!!!  

Click to expand...

Those were the usual 'take-aways' to counter the 'gifts'!

What was more sinister was the following....'And we will introduce a new penalty for those who enable the use of a tax avoidance scheme that HMRC later challenges and defeats.'

An interesting (dis)incentive! Also interesting that some of the largest 'tax avoidance' schemes have actually been introduced by the government!


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## Foxholer (Nov 28, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			Like many Scots my views changed after the EU referendum.

Never ending Tory rule and Scotland paying 8.9% of the Westminster government's sharply rising Â£2 Trillion debt does not seem like a good forward plan to me.
		
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Perhaps if the Scottish government stopped overspending by such a vast amount (proportionately much greater than RoUK) it would help!  

Btw. 'Scotland' isn't actually paying ANY of that debt!


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 28, 2016)

I would be interested to know how you can you 'overspend' on a block grant ?


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## Liverpoolphil (Nov 28, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			I would be interested to know how you can you 'overspend' on a block grant ?
		
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https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.n...cotland's_overspending_problem.pdf?1476194925

Read and educate yourself :thup:


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## Doon frae Troon (Nov 28, 2016)

Liverpoolphil said:



https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.n...cotland's_overspending_problem.pdf?1476194925

Read and educate yourself :thup:
		
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The Taxpayers Alliance:lol:.......no thanks.


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## Hobbit (Nov 28, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			I would be interested to know how you can you 'overspend' on a block grant ?
		
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Scottish revenue = Â£53bn
Block grant = Â£29 bn
Spending = Â£68.6 bn

The tooth fairies paid the Â£15 bn overspend.


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## Liverpoolphil (Nov 28, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			The Taxpayers Alliance:lol:.......no thanks.
		
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Why ? It's full of factual information of the current situation or do you prefer to get your facts from comics like Wings


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## Old Skier (Nov 28, 2016)

Liverpoolphil said:



			Why ? It's full of factual information of the current situation or do you prefer to get your facts from comics like Wings
		
Click to expand...

Knocking a man's comic not on &#128515;


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## Foxholer (Nov 28, 2016)

Doon frae Troon said:



			The Taxpayers Alliance:lol:.......no thanks.
		
Click to expand...

Try the (Scottish Government produced) GERS figures then - as they are actually where those figures come from! http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/08/2132

The important parts are the Deficit % - 9.5% of GDP for Scotland compared to 4.0% for UK overall!

So Scotland is being sponsored by RUK!

BTW. The way Scotland overspends is by 'writing cheques' for more than its income!


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## Old Skier (Nov 28, 2016)

Foxholer said:



			BTW. The way Scotland overspends is by 'writing cheques' for more than its income!
		
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The left wing solution to life.


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## Foxholer (Nov 28, 2016)

Old Skier said:



			The left wing solution to life.
		
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It's also the 'right wing' solution! It's only the Payee that differs!


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