# The Virus anybody else done the maths



## jim8flog (Mar 25, 2020)

Watching the news today about worst case scenario and something on the Last Leg last week I thought I would do a little maths 

Made easy for quickness, the government uses 1.5 people and I think they were talking every 2 days

If a person with the virus infects two people with the virus every day it only takes 16 days for there to be around there  1.5 million infected people

Very rough figures because there will some that isolate themselves around the 5th day and other factors.


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## JustOne (Mar 25, 2020)

I have done the maths but (obviously) hope that I'm wrong and they find a cure, a prevention or at least something that is going to help people survive this BEFORE the maths comes true.


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## larmen (Mar 25, 2020)

I don’t get the math. We were told that without isolation and infected person infects 2.5 people in 5 days.

Let’s take a normal working week of 5 days, I come in contact with 20-30+ co workers and I commute on a semi packed train. Just 2.5 of them get it from me?

I am all for isolation, but I don’t get the math as for me it is counterintuitive low.


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## JustOne (Mar 25, 2020)

larmen said:



			Let’s take a normal working week of 5 days, I come in contact with 20-30+ co workers and I commute on a semi packed train. Just 2.5 of them get it from me?
.
		
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If you had it you would probably infect ALL OF THEM over 5 days.

Some other people won't infect many people at all as they don't see that many people in their normal working day, so it averages out that about 2.5 people infected per carrier.


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## JustOne (Mar 25, 2020)

When this gets going (and it's started) in Africa, India, South America, Russia etc we are looking at potentially 100's of MILLIONS dead as it's hard to see how any underdeveloped country could possibly cope, let's face it we can't even manage food, water, basic medicine for half the world!


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## Imurg (Mar 25, 2020)

Possibly because it's not being shown so much but people are forgetting that out of the 437k+ cases worldwide, something like 111k have recovered.


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## Hobbit (Mar 25, 2020)

Yep, been doing the maths for a few weeks now. Over here they publish the figures on a daily basis, and by region. The region, Andalucia for us, also publishes it by district, Almeria for us.

Amongst all the figures in the table is those that recover and, unfortunately, those that don't. Using a little intelligence its clear to see that the more densely populated areas/cities have the higher rates of infection and, at present, the better recovery rates - but what about when the resources are swamped. 

Conversely, worryingly, the mortality rates in the rural areas are higher than the recovery rates.


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## Twire (Mar 25, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			Yep, been doing the maths for a few weeks now. Over here they publish the figures on a daily basis, and by region. The region, Andalucia for us, also publishes it by district, Almeria for us.

Amongst all the figures in the table is those that recover and, unfortunately, those that don't. Using a little intelligence its clear to see that the more densely populated areas/cities have the higher rates of infection and, at present, the better recovery rates - but what about when the resources are swamped.

Conversely, worryingly, the mortality rates in the rural areas are higher than the recovery rates.
		
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Not sure how your figures in Spain are correlated mate, but the infected figures for the UK I take with a pinch of salt. With so many being told to self isolate and not call 111 or GP/hospital unless symptomes become serious, I'm sure there are tens of thousands that have been infected and are now clear. So the mortality % can be way off.

This site is good for keeping up with world figures, but again how accurate are they?... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

PS, hope your feeling a bit better fella.


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## Lord Tyrion (Mar 25, 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743

This is quite a good piece on the subject.


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## Doon frae Troon (Mar 25, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			Yep, been doing the maths for a few weeks now. Over here they publish the figures on a daily basis, and by region. The region, Andalucia for us, also publishes it by district, Almeria for us.

Amongst all the figures in the table is those that recover and, unfortunately, those that don't. Using a little intelligence its clear to see that the more densely populated areas/cities have the higher rates of infection and, at present, the better recovery rates - but what about when the resources are swamped.

Conversely, worryingly, the mortality rates in the rural areas are higher than the recovery rates.
		
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You would think that is the case.
I live close to the D&G/South Ayrshire border.
D&G is very sparsely populated and have very low number of cases whilst Glasgow is high in population and high in cases.....….break it down per 100,000 people and surprisingly the rates are virtually the same.
Maybe something to do with the Stranraer ports......….throughout the UK cases are high near the major airports but the major airports are in highly populated areas.


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Mar 25, 2020)

If one person with the coronavirus passes it onto three people, and those three people pass onto three more people for ten cycles, there will be 59,000 infections.  From a single initial infected person.

Also I think the figures for three cycles from a single infected individual (@2.5 per individual) was something like 470.  With the separation measures we are being asked to adopt that drops to 13 after three cycles (can't recall if I saw this on CH4 News or BBC News - but the impact of the separation measures were of this order of dramatic)


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## JustOne (Mar 25, 2020)

I find it odd that the number 'pumpers' at the media seem so quick to jump on bad stats as if they are good stats, example....

Country has 100 cases and it jumps to 150 (increase of 50%) Boooooo!!
Country has 50,000 cases and it jumps to 60,000 (increase of 20%) time to celebrate as the % goes down!! 

I mean lets not look at the difference between 50 people getting infected and *10,000*,... its all crazy.


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## Hobbit (Mar 25, 2020)

Twire said:



			Not sure how your figures in Spain are correlated mate, but the infected figures for the UK I take with a pinch of salt. With so many being told to self isolate and not call 111 or GP/hospital unless symptomes become serious, I'm sure there are tens of thousands that have been infected and are now clear. So the mortality % can be way off.

This site is good for keeping up with world figures, but again how accurate are they?... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

PS, hope your feeling a bit better fella.
		
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I agree, the true figure for infection is almost impossible to state with accuracy. As has been said, many people will get it and its not much worse than a bad cold. My point was the difference between recovery and mortality based on whether you live close enough to a major treatment centre or not. But that only applies until the major treatment centres are swamped.


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## pendodave (Mar 25, 2020)

JustOne said:



			When this gets going (and it's started) in Africa, India, South America, Russia etc we are looking at potentially 100's of MILLIONS dead as it's hard to see how any underdeveloped country could possibly cope, let's face it we can't even manage food, water, basic medicine for half the world!
		
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The population of most developing countries is night and day to (say) developed Asian and European countries. They are very heavily stacked with young people. Not too many people with 'underlying heath conditions' and extreme longevity make it for too long. 
So extrapolating (say) northern Italy to Nigeria is a bit of a stretch. 
It's true to say that millions may catch it, probably not the case that millions die.


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## JustOne (Mar 25, 2020)

pendodave said:



			So extrapolating (say) northern Italy to Nigeria is a bit of a stretch.
It's true to say that millions may catch it, probably not the case that millions die.
		
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I agree BUT also wonder the fortitude of a child that has little food or dirty water. I don't know the crossection of ages across Africa but assuming one parent dies the child is going to struggle. As per the thread we are just looking at the maths, lets hope this thing just blows away and we are all wrong (however unlikely that seems).


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## drdel (Mar 25, 2020)

Its complex to calculate without using a dynamic simulation modelling technique as there many probability distribution workings across the changing infection process.

One of the biggest factors is the demographics of population density; e.g London 7,000+ per square mile, average UK 1,100 /sq mile.

One of the simple issues with the media 'rate of infection' is that the testing/recording capacity cap has effectively fixed the denominator of the percentage as a direct consequence more cases increases the apparent 'rate'!


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Mar 25, 2020)

drdel said:



			Its complex to calculate without using a dynamic simulation modelling technique as there many probability distribution workings across the changing infection process.

One of the biggest factors is the demographics of population density; e.g London 7,000+ per square mile, average UK 1,100 /sq mile.

One of the simple issues with the media 'rate of infection' is that the testing/recording capacity cap has effectively fixed the denominator of the percentage as a direct consequence more cases increases the apparent 'rate'!
		
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This is true - but independent of population density - the reduction in numbers infected after three cycles brought about by separation is staggering.  As mentioned I think it was 470 / infection seed person down to 13 / infection seed person.


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## SocketRocket (Mar 25, 2020)

I heard a university egghead on the radio saying that according to their modeling that by locking down and creating a 15% fall in GDP we will kill more people through poverty reducing life expectancy than would die by the virus.


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## Lord Tyrion (Mar 25, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			I heard a university egghead on the radio saying that according to their modeling that by locking down and creating a 15% fall in GDP we will kill more people through poverty reducing life expectancy than would die by the virus.
		
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He was a cheery soul . Typical academic / theoretical response. Being poor does not mean you have to eat badly, not exercise, live an unhealthy lifestyle. There are links but it is not compulsory. Getting through the virus gives people a choice with what to do with their lives, dying from it clearly does not. (you may tell I dislike the throw away lines these people give)


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## SocketRocket (Mar 25, 2020)

Lord Tyrion said:



			He was a cheery soul . Typical academic / theoretical response. Being poor does not mean you have to eat badly, not exercise, live an unhealthy lifestyle. There are links but it is not compulsory. Getting through the virus gives people a choice with what to do with their lives, dying from it clearly does not. (you may tell I dislike the throw away lines these people give)
		
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Yes, he was a tad robotic in his delivery 🙄


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## jim8flog (Mar 25, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			I heard a university egghead on the radio saying that according to their modeling that by locking down and creating a 15% fall in GDP we will kill more people through poverty reducing life expectancy than would die by the virus.
		
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I often get posts on my facebook from a fairly activist political person - one of the ones from a couple of weeks ago said "the Tories are more dangerous to our health than the virus".


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## Blue in Munich (Mar 25, 2020)

Interesting.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

some of the comments make interesting reading too.


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## JustOne (Mar 25, 2020)

JustOne said:



			I find it odd that the number 'pumpers' at the media seem so quick to jump on bad stats as if they are good stats, example....

Country has 100 cases and it jumps to 150 (increase of 50%) Boooooo!!
Country has 50,000 cases and it jumps to 60,000 (increase of 20%) time to celebrate as the % goes down!! 

I mean lets not look at the difference between 50 people getting infected and *10,000*,... its all crazy.
		
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Daily Mail, headline reads...

Is it working? UK records 43 coronavirus deaths in past 24 hours compared to 87 yesterday and new infections level out

Then two lines below...

The UK has recorded 43 coronavirus deaths in the past 24 hours compared to 87 yesterday, but new infections have sky-rocketed by a record 1,452

sky-rocketing, levelling out, my thesaurus must be outta date


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## williamalex1 (Mar 26, 2020)

JustOne said:



			I have done the maths but (obviously) hope that I'm wrong and they find a cure, a prevention or at least something that is going to help people survive this BEFORE the maths comes true.
		
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Welcome back to the fold JustOne , James if I remember correctly, you've been sadly missed


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## JustOne (Mar 26, 2020)

williamalex1 said:



			Welcome back to the fold JustOne , James if I remember correctly, you've been sadly missed 

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Much appreciated. Not sure I've been missed.... but I'll take it!!


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## Hobbit (Mar 26, 2020)

JustOne said:



			Much appreciated. Not sure I've been missed.... but I'll take it!! 

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Definitely missed James


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## Imurg (Mar 26, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			Definitely missed James
		
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But with more practice our aim should get better


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## SocketRocket (Mar 26, 2020)

JustOne said:



			Much appreciated. Not sure I've been missed.... but I'll take it!! 

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As long as you keep off the stack and tilt 😉


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## williamalex1 (Mar 26, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			As long as you keep off the stack and tilt 😉
		
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I'd forgot about that,  so maybe I was a bit hasty


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## ferenezejohn (Mar 26, 2020)

The maths that concern me, Germany more than 3 times the case we have with less than half the mortality rate we have.


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## Jacko_G (Mar 26, 2020)

ferenezejohn said:



			The maths that concern me, Germany more than 3 times the case we have with less than half the mortality rate we have.
		
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It seems to hit some countries a lot worse than others.


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## yandabrown (Mar 26, 2020)

ferenezejohn said:



			The maths that concern me, Germany more than 3 times the case we have with less than half the mortality rate we have.
		
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Speaking to some German colleagues today, the understanding is that most cases originally came from young families that had been skiing in Italy and the mortality rate for younger people is lower. They are hoping that their lockdown stops it spreading to the more elderly.


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## Hobbit (Mar 26, 2020)

ferenezejohn said:



			The maths that concern me, Germany more than 3 times the case we have with less than half the mortality rate we have.
		
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They've been accessing healthcare a lot sooner, and getting tests and meds in good time.


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## IainP (Mar 26, 2020)

ferenezejohn said:



			The maths that concern me, Germany more than 3 times the case we have with less than half the mortality rate we have.
		
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I'm sure I read somewhere they'd been testing more younger/fitter people that most European countries.


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## pendodave (Mar 26, 2020)

ferenezejohn said:



			The maths that concern me, Germany more than 3 times the case we have with less than half the mortality rate we have.
		
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I think German counting is a little different. I read that it has to be collated at a federal level and then forwarded to the national organisations. It takes a while and not every state counts deaths quite the same.
I think at this early stage, and with such huge differences in testing regimes, data collection is as likely to be a cause as any clinical differences.


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## IainP (Mar 26, 2020)

One week ago the UK seemed to be tracking pretty much spot on 14 days behind Italy.
If I read it right, it looks to have moved a little to 16 days behind.
Obviously don't want to read to much into it, and see how things look in another week. Tough times ahead no doubt.


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## ferenezejohn (Mar 27, 2020)

What would the figures be if China had not ordered doctors not to go public,  stopped testing and destroyed samples.
When the virus was rampant in Wuhan allowed a festival with tens of thousands taking part, then allowed 5 million to leave the city while on lockdown.


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## Ye Olde Boomer (Mar 27, 2020)

The pandemic, as it wreaks havoc on our population, still manages to be a subject of political contention as well in the US.

Prominent Republican spokespeople have come right out and send that saving lives is not worth shutting down the economy.
Apparently, we're destroying the American way of life for the ones who do survive!

This drivel, my friends, is that with which we must put up over here when there are life and death issues to address.

I wasn't born during the Great Depression and just missed WWII as well.  This crisis, then, is the most severe that I've ever witnessed.
What I can see already is that among those of us who survive it, quite a few of us won't have learned a goddamned thing.


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## JustOne (Mar 27, 2020)

Ye Olde Boomer said:



			I wasn't born during the Great Depression and just missed WWII as well.  This crisis, then, is the most severe that I've ever witnessed.
What I can see already is that among those of us who survive it, quite a few of us won't have learned a goddamned thing.
		
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You are right, you probably STILL won't be able to play thru when play is slow


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## IainP (Mar 28, 2020)

IainP said:



			One week ago the UK seemed to be tracking pretty much spot on 14 days behind Italy.
If I read it right, it looks to have moved a little to 16 days behind.
Obviously don't want to read to much into it, and see how things look in another week. Tough times ahead no doubt.
		
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Know I wrote wait a week but;

Italy  12 March   1015
UK     28 March   1019

🙁 
Seeing where Italy & Spain are currently is not good for them or encouraging for the UK


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## Hobbit (Mar 28, 2020)

IainP said:



			Know I wrote wait a week but;

Italy  12 March   1015
UK     28 March   1019

🙁
Seeing where Italy & Spain are currently is not good for them or encouraging for the UK
		
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Bearing in mind we're now on day 13 of the full lockdown, and many businesses shut 15 days ago it was very worrying to see that Almeria region has had a big surge in the last 24 hours. 13 days into lockdown I thought the surge would have been at least 3 days ago. It makes frightening reading - we're one of the least populated regions.

The announcement from President Sanchez at 8pm tonight was full on, all singing all dancing lockdown. All businesses that have argued for exemption, e.g. construction, have been told to close with effect from midnight tomorrow night.

I feel that Spain have been far harsher then the UK, e.g. €600 fines minimum, and imposed exceptionally strictly. We saw one of our neighbours fined a couple of days ago because they both took rubbish bags down to the bins - one person only. We know the policeman, he's a lovely guy but no messing over here.

There was an 11 hour debate on Wednesday, into the early hours of Thursday re the extension to the lockdown. Sanchez got eaten alive over the slow response. Honestly, I think the UK govt have been exceptionally slow by comparison. I sincerely hope I'm wrong but I think you're heading into a gritstorm.


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## Lord Tyrion (Mar 28, 2020)

Walked our dog tonight and saw a bloke I chat to who has two greyhounds. We stopped at an appropriate distance and talked away. I've discovered he works for the NHS and so was asking him how it was. Eerily quiet was his response, like a tsunami when all the birds shut up. They are primed and ready but have very few cases right now. We are not seeing a spread up here, those who have it do not seem to have passed it on to any degree. There are none at this moment in my town, none at all. 

He was not complacent but with all the fear right now it was good to hear a positive angle.

I should add, the lockdown advice is being well respected here. I'm sure some are not but on the whole it is being followed.


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## larmen (Mar 29, 2020)

This is better than another 20 minutes of any golf YouTuber of your choice


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## Blue in Munich (Mar 29, 2020)

A alternative view on the maths from the Peter Hitchens column;

I shall come to these, to underline the fact that it is not I, alone, who have these doubts. I do not claim to be an expert. But I refer to those who definitely are experts, who doubt the wisdom of what we are doing.
It is sad that far too little of this is being reported as prominently as it should be by our supposedly diverse and free media, especially the BBC, which has largely closed its mind and its airwaves to dissent. It is quite funny that a statue of George Orwell stands by the entrance to the BBC, bearing the inscription: ‘If liberty means anything at all it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.’
Obviously, they should take it down, as nobody inside the building appears to believe that.
*Crucially, those who began by claiming that we faced half a million deaths from the coronavirus in this country have now greatly lowered their estimate. Professor Neil Ferguson was one of those largely responsible for the original panic. He or others from Imperial college have twice revised his terrifying prophecy, first to fewer than 20,000 and then on Friday to 5,700.*
He says intensive care units will probably cope. And he conceded a point made by critics of the panic policy – that two-thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months would most likely have died this year from other causes.
He tried to claim that the shutdown of the country had led to this violent backtrack, claiming that it was ‘social distancing strategies’ which had brought about his amazing climbdown. How could he possibly know either that this had happened, or that it would happen, or that there was any connection between the two?

It is very hard to see by what means he could know any of these things. Could he have softened his stance because of the publication early last week of a rival view, from distinguished scientists at Oxford University, led by Sunetra Gupta, Professor of theoretical epidemiology? It suggests that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment.
The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. Millions may already have had it.  This report is being unfairly sneered at by Government toadies, but we shall see. It seems unlikely that Oxford University would have bungled their work.

And it is obvious that a few days of raggedly enforced house arrest could not have made so much real difference. Even those who believe in these shutdowns think they take two weeks to have any effect.
Now, if you want a scientist who does not support Government policy, the most impressive of these is Prof Sucharit Bhakdi. If you desire experts, he is one.
He is an infectious medicine specialist, one of the most highly cited medical research scientists in Germany. He was head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, one of Germany’s most distinguished seats of learning.  
In a recent interview he had many uncomplimentary things to say about the shutdown policy being pursued by so many countries (there is a link on my blog to the interview, and a transcription).
But perhaps the most powerful was his reply to the suggestion that the closedown of society would save lives. He argued the contrary, saying this policy was ‘grotesque, absurd and very dangerous’.
He warned: ‘Our elderly citizens have every right to make efforts not to belong to the 2,200 [in Germany] who daily embark on their last journey. Social contacts and social events, theatre and music, travel and holiday recreation, sports and hobbies all help to prolong their stay on Earth. The life expectancy of millions is being shortened.’
He also gave this warning:* ‘The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people.
‘The consequences for medical care are profound. Already services to patients who are in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling.
‘All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.
‘I can only say that all these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide because of nothing but a spook.’*
This is plainly true. Old people who are still healthy, thanks to regular exercise and busy social lives, will suffer hugely from being trapped in their homes.
But there is another major problem with the Government case. Do the figures show what they claim to show?
Many people will die with coronavirus. But this does not mean that they died of it.
This is already a major problem in judging death totals from such countries as Italy. Yet new rules in the UK mean deaths which may well be mainly from other causes are recorded as corona deaths.
John Lee, a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist, writes in The Spectator this weekend that by making Covid-19 a notifiable disease, the authorities may have distorted the figures.
*‘In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate – contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind.
‘There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes.
Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.’
This, of course, explains why such an overwhelming number of Covid deaths, here and abroad, involve so-called ‘underlying conditions’, in fact serious, often fatal, diseases.*
Take this into account whenever you hear official figures of coronavirus deaths.
*Dr Lee adds, equally crucially: ‘We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared.’*
That is the heart of it. It was never going to be as bad as the panic-mongers said.
The hysterical measures taken may well not have done any good. Yet our freedom is still bruised and broken, and our economy limping and deeply damaged.
If we do not learn the right lessons from this grim episode, then we will, for certain, have to go through it all again.

I have no idea if it is right or wrong, but it certainly makes for interesting reading.


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## harpo_72 (Mar 29, 2020)

Blue in Munich said:



			A alternative view on the maths from the Peter Hitchens column;

I shall come to these, to underline the fact that it is not I, alone, who have these doubts. I do not claim to be an expert. But I refer to those who definitely are experts, who doubt the wisdom of what we are doing.
It is sad that far too little of this is being reported as prominently as it should be by our supposedly diverse and free media, especially the BBC, which has largely closed its mind and its airwaves to dissent. It is quite funny that a statue of George Orwell stands by the entrance to the BBC, bearing the inscription: ‘If liberty means anything at all it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.’
Obviously, they should take it down, as nobody inside the building appears to believe that.
*Crucially, those who began by claiming that we faced half a million deaths from the coronavirus in this country have now greatly lowered their estimate. Professor Neil Ferguson was one of those largely responsible for the original panic. He or others from Imperial college have twice revised his terrifying prophecy, first to fewer than 20,000 and then on Friday to 5,700.*
He says intensive care units will probably cope. And he conceded a point made by critics of the panic policy – that two-thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months would most likely have died this year from other causes.
He tried to claim that the shutdown of the country had led to this violent backtrack, claiming that it was ‘social distancing strategies’ which had brought about his amazing climbdown. How could he possibly know either that this had happened, or that it would happen, or that there was any connection between the two?

It is very hard to see by what means he could know any of these things. Could he have softened his stance because of the publication early last week of a rival view, from distinguished scientists at Oxford University, led by Sunetra Gupta, Professor of theoretical epidemiology? It suggests that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment.
The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. Millions may already have had it.  This report is being unfairly sneered at by Government toadies, but we shall see. It seems unlikely that Oxford University would have bungled their work.

And it is obvious that a few days of raggedly enforced house arrest could not have made so much real difference. Even those who believe in these shutdowns think they take two weeks to have any effect.
Now, if you want a scientist who does not support Government policy, the most impressive of these is Prof Sucharit Bhakdi. If you desire experts, he is one.
He is an infectious medicine specialist, one of the most highly cited medical research scientists in Germany. He was head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, one of Germany’s most distinguished seats of learning. 
In a recent interview he had many uncomplimentary things to say about the shutdown policy being pursued by so many countries (there is a link on my blog to the interview, and a transcription).
But perhaps the most powerful was his reply to the suggestion that the closedown of society would save lives. He argued the contrary, saying this policy was ‘grotesque, absurd and very dangerous’.
He warned: ‘Our elderly citizens have every right to make efforts not to belong to the 2,200 [in Germany] who daily embark on their last journey. Social contacts and social events, theatre and music, travel and holiday recreation, sports and hobbies all help to prolong their stay on Earth. The life expectancy of millions is being shortened.’
He also gave this warning:* ‘The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people.
‘The consequences for medical care are profound. Already services to patients who are in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling.
‘All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.
‘I can only say that all these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide because of nothing but a spook.’*
This is plainly true. Old people who are still healthy, thanks to regular exercise and busy social lives, will suffer hugely from being trapped in their homes.
But there is another major problem with the Government case. Do the figures show what they claim to show?
Many people will die with coronavirus. But this does not mean that they died of it.
This is already a major problem in judging death totals from such countries as Italy. Yet new rules in the UK mean deaths which may well be mainly from other causes are recorded as corona deaths.
John Lee, a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist, writes in The Spectator this weekend that by making Covid-19 a notifiable disease, the authorities may have distorted the figures.
*‘In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate – contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind.
‘There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes.
Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.’
This, of course, explains why such an overwhelming number of Covid deaths, here and abroad, involve so-called ‘underlying conditions’, in fact serious, often fatal, diseases.*
Take this into account whenever you hear official figures of coronavirus deaths.
*Dr Lee adds, equally crucially: ‘We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared.’*
That is the heart of it. It was never going to be as bad as the panic-mongers said.
The hysterical measures taken may well not have done any good. Yet our freedom is still bruised and broken, and our economy limping and deeply damaged.
If we do not learn the right lessons from this grim episode, then we will, for certain, have to go through it all again.

I have no idea if it is right or wrong, but it certainly makes for interesting reading.
		
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Yup, and it will gain credibility with better testing and results to back up the analysis and confirm the speculation.
This is the issue, you get a few deaths, that gives you a number, but that number needs to be dissected into healthy, and under lying health problems.. then you identify the risk levels and those that are part of that group. 
But even if you did, would the English listen .. I mean this is a population that panic bought toilet rolls, how embarrassing is that.


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## robinthehood (Mar 29, 2020)

harpo_72 said:



			Yup, and it will gain credibility with better testing and results to back up the analysis and confirm the speculation.
This is the issue, you get a few deaths, that gives you a number, but that number needs to be dissected into healthy, and under lying health problems.. then you identify the risk levels and those that are part of that group.
But even if you did, would the English listen .. I mean this is a population that panic bought toilet rolls, how embarrassing is that.
		
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Same panic buying every where. Spoke to my mate in Singapore and it was the same stuff getting bought.


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## Hobbit (Mar 29, 2020)

harpo_72 said:



			Yup, and it will gain credibility with better testing and results to back up the analysis and confirm the speculation.
This is the issue, you get a few deaths, that gives you a number, but that number needs to be dissected into healthy, and under lying health problems.. then you identify the risk levels and those that are part of that group.
But even if you did, would the English listen .. I mean this is a population that panic bought toilet rolls, how embarrassing is that.
		
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The bit I struggle with in Hitchin's piece is when he says if someone has an underlying condition that C19 tips them over the edge it should be the underlying condition, e.g. heart attack, that is the reason for death. I can sort of see where he's coming from but the reality is they wouldn't have had the heart attack if C19 hadn't triggered it.

For me, its still C19 is the reason for death.


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## USER1999 (Mar 29, 2020)

robinthehood said:



			Same panic buying every where. Spoke to my mate in Singapore and it was the same stuff getting bought.
		
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There was an armed robbery in Hong Kong for toilet paper. Knives, not guns, but still shows a real determination for toilet paper.


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## Ye Olde Boomer (Mar 29, 2020)

murphthemog said:



			There was an armed robbery in Hong Kong for toilet paper. *Knives, not guns,* but still shows a real determination for toilet paper.
		
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How barbaric! 
Not many things to brag about in America right now, I admit, but at least we have enough guns for everybody who needs them!

Crime was briefly down during the pandemic, but now kids home from school are taking up the slack.   Not smart, considering the sketchy health conditions in our juvenile prisons.


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## Swinglowandslow (Mar 29, 2020)

This is clearly a virus that kills a lot easier than flu. Not only of vulnerable people, but too many healthy young persons. 
As I write the death is announced of a ENT consultant. It's odds on that he was healthy. In itself it doesn't *prove *one way or another, but Hitchens makes  and repeats some extraordinary claims. I suspect support for him comes from a frustration, a wishful thinking, about the awful restrictions upon us now and for a while to come. But if his experts were right, we would not have NHS staff  telling us of the unprecedented conditions they face- hospitals close to collapse, pleading from a Doctors etc. Those are the realities.
How does this stand up against that
""Lee adds, equally crucially: ‘We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared.’ "

Never going to be. ?  Where's he been?
They wouldn't be realities if Oxford was right. They would be merely blips, wouldn't they?


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## IainP (Mar 29, 2020)

_# The following is just ramblings of someone who doesn't know much and should be treated as such #_
I think some months down the line history will look back on actions in China, South Korea, parts of the USA, and across Europe and try to make sense of it all.

Early on in the main thread I was searching for stats, and came up with on average something like 1500 deaths in the UK a day. I would have like to have seen what that has been like recently. However, I might assume that these 1500 were spread about across a number of areas whereas the challenge the world is facing now, is growing numbers of similar specific symptoms with specific ways to treat.
We certainly should not lose sight of the counting, if it is "someone had Covid-19" rather than "someone died from Covid-19". But, I'd like to think the former is a Yes/No reliable test, and the latter may well be open to subjectivity - with the number in play we don't want medical staff having a debate about this, there isn't the time.

From what I followed from Italy, because so many were presenting with the symptoms, and the capacity just wasn't there, those on the front line were being forced to make those horrible decisions. You can have treatment and in all possibility will recover, you can't and in all possibility won't. I'd say it is this, in what we consider a civilised society, that has stopped society just carrying as normal and letting this spread unabated.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...r-to-younger-patient-he-did-not-know-11962806


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## USER1999 (Mar 29, 2020)

Survival rates of people on ventillators still seems to be only around 50% though, so hardly in all possibility.


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## Blue in Munich (Mar 29, 2020)

Swinglowandslow said:



			This is clearly a virus that kills a lot easier than flu. Not only of vulnerable people, but too many healthy young persons.
As I write the death is announced of a ENT consultant. It's odds on that he was healthy. In itself it doesn't *prove *one way or another, but Hitchens makes  and repeats some extraordinary claims. I suspect support for him comes from a frustration, a wishful thinking, about the awful restrictions upon us now and for a while to come. But if his experts were right, we would not have NHS staff  telling us of the unprecedented conditions they face- hospitals close to collapse, pleading from a Doctors etc. Those are the realities.
How does this stand up against that
""Lee adds, equally crucially: ‘We risk being convinced that we have averted *something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared.’* "

Never going to be. ?  Where's he been?
They wouldn't be realities if Oxford was right. They would be merely blips, wouldn't they?
		
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Yet apparently the statistics projected by Imperial College London have been revised down from 500,000 deaths to 5,700.  That strikes me as something that was never really going to be going to be as severe we feared, because with all due respect the the Government & the NHS I don't see their actions cutting down the estimates that much.  Interestingly one of the comments on the original FT article pointed out that ICL's modelling had previously got a couple of the other infectious outbreaks estimates wildly wrong.  

I don't know any more than anyone else, and this is not intended as criticism of the action being taken by the Government, merely as a discussion point.


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## pendodave (Mar 29, 2020)

Modelling is such an inexact science with such limited data.  Look at us, Sweden, Germany and France. All developed,civilised countries with respected academics. But 4 completely different (but justifiable) approaches.


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## Kellfire (Mar 30, 2020)

Ye Olde Boomer said:



			How barbaric!
Not many things to brag about in America right now, I admit, but at least we have enough guns for everybody who needs them!
		
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And that is definitely the most stupid thing ever said on this forum. It also makes me think you must be a troll!


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## Hobbit (Mar 30, 2020)

Kellfire said:



			And that is definitely the most stupid thing ever said on this forum. It also makes me think you must be a troll!
		
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Says the guy who right out of the blue accused someone of being a Tommy Robinson supporter.... Is there anyone else on your hit list today? Jeez Mark, do you have to go nuclear? 

What was it you said about considering other views?


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## pendodave (Mar 30, 2020)

Kellfire said:



			And that is definitely the most stupid thing ever said on this forum. It also makes me think you must be a troll!
		
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I think that Mr boomer may be having a gentle poke at American values.
His grasp of irony makes me think that his most troll-y activity is that he's not actually American at all...


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## drdel (Mar 30, 2020)

How about a question/dilemma/fake news?

Germany policy is looking to test Germans widely for antibodies and issue certificates to those who are now immune and release them to work - it obviously raises the question - what about those who have not been infected but are still vulnerable?

UK Government strategy is also to crank up antibody testing and social distancing to flatten the curve of infections so the NHS can cope.
Within a window of about 12 months there is no cure or vaccine.
About 20% of UK are aged 65+ so in the more vulnerable group there's about 12mill people.
*If* 'flattening' the curve just delays the period before everyone has been infected and developed antibodies then these 12m will _eventually_ catch the virus.

Now for the unanswered question: if the death rate among those infected is currently running around 5% ish; (600,000 people - about the same as the annual UK deaths).
What are your plans? - sleep well !!!

(clearly in the 600K there will be many who would have died of normal/natural causes so the total would not be 1.2m - and I may have twisted the numerical logic a bit - phew)


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## Kellfire (Mar 30, 2020)

pendodave said:



			I think that Mr boomer may be having a gentle poke at American values.
His grasp of irony makes me think that his most troll-y activity is that he's not actually American at all...
		
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He’s not. He’s said it before than guns are more civilised than knives.


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## Kellfire (Mar 30, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			Says the guy who right out of the blue accused someone of being a Tommy Robinson supporter.... Is there anyone else on your hit list today? Jeez Mark, do you have to go nuclear?

What was it you said about considering other views?
		
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You know his view on this one is completely crazy.


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## Hobbit (Mar 30, 2020)

Kellfire said:



			You know his view on this one is completely crazy.
		
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No they're not. I, as others did, read it differently from you. I, genuinely, can't make the connection you did without going 2+2=347. 

Here's an off the cuff thought; if you're the only person that read it as a Tommy Robinson slant you're either very insightful or way off the mark. Surely you question your own metric if you see that you're the only one seeing it that way? There's some very intelligent people on this forum... how many people do you see leaping up and calling him a Tommy Robinson supporter?


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## Kellfire (Mar 30, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			No they're not. I, as others did, read it differently from you. I, genuinely, can't make the connection you did without going 2+2=347.

Here's an off the cuff thought; if you're the only person that read it as a Tommy Robinson slant you're either very insightful or way off the mark. Surely you question your own metric if you see that you're the only one seeing it that way? There's some very intelligent people on this forum... how many people do you see leaping up and calling him a Tommy Robinson supporter?
		
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I read it as Boomer saying we should all have guns. Nothing to do with Tommy Robinson.


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Mar 30, 2020)

Blue in Munich said:



			Yet apparently the statistics projected by Imperial College London have been revised down from 500,000 deaths to 5,700.  That strikes me as something that was never really going to be going to be as severe we feared, because with all due respect the the Government & the NHS I don't see their actions cutting down the estimates that much.  Interestingly one of the comments on the original FT article pointed out that ICL's modelling had previously got a couple of the other infectious outbreaks estimates wildly wrong.

I don't know any more than anyone else, and this is not intended as criticism of the action being taken by the Government, merely as a discussion point.
		
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It's not _that _difficult to understand.  With little or no data, and no spread prevention measures in place, then all you have to start with on which to base your predictions is the basic dynamics of what you are trying to model - and you reflect that by there being very high level of uncertainty associated with what you are trying to model.  So at first it is very possible that the basic dynamics of pandemic spread might well give an estimated 500,000 deaths.  Now that figure might well have been the 3sigma (99.7% confidence interval) - and indeed the most likely estimate at the outset might have been a lot less as would have been the best possible -3sigma let's say.

As measurements of ACTUAL spread and growth come in, the uncertainty around some of the things you are modelling that drive the number of deaths reduces...and you estimates can be given with greater confidence.  Then there are the spread preventative measures.  As these are applied one-by-one the impact on spread and growth is assessed through measurement and data.  Some will have more impact than others and social separation if we apply it properly can have a very major impact - at the moment we just don;t know as it is too soon for the impact to manifest itself.

So for instance if we perfectly applied absolute separation then it is clear that that would stop spread of the virus dead in it's tracks.  Now that isn't going to happen, but you can model it and come out with a very low number of deaths if that is what you want to do.

It is therefore very understandable from a statistical modelling perspective to understand what is happening in respect of the estimates of numbers of deaths.


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## Ye Olde Boomer (Mar 30, 2020)

Kellfire said:



			And that is definitely the most stupid thing ever said on this forum. It also makes me think you must be a troll!
		
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Sorry, Kellfire.  
I underestimated your hypersensitivity and thought it was just a little joke.


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## drdel (Mar 30, 2020)

SwingsitlikeHogan said:



			It's not _that _difficult to understand.  With little or no data, and no spread prevention measures in place, then all you have to start with on which to base your predictions is the basic dynamics of what you are trying to model - and you reflect that by there being very high level of uncertainty associated with what you are trying to model.  So at first it is very possible that the basic dynamics of pandemic spread might well give an estimated 500,000 deaths.  Now that figure might well have been the 3sigma (99.7% confidence interval) - and indeed the most likely estimate at the outset might have been a lot less as would have been the best possible -3sigma let's say.

As measurements of ACTUAL spread and growth come in, the uncertainty around some of the things you are modelling that drive the number of deaths reduces...and you estimates can be given with greater confidence.  Then there are the spread preventative measures.  As these are applied one-by-one the impact on spread and growth is assessed through measurement and data.  Some will have more impact than others and social separation if we apply it properly can have a very major impact - at the moment we just don;t know as it is too soon for the impact to manifest itself.

So for instance if we perfectly applied absolute separation then it is clear that that would stop spread of the virus dead in it's tracks.  Now that isn't going to happen, but you can model it and come out with a very low number of deaths if that is what you want to do.

It is therefore *very understandable* from a *statistical modelling *perspective to understand what is happening in respect of the estimates of numbers of deaths.
		
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I think you'll find it is far from setting simplistic 3sigma confidence boundaries. Using models that sought to explain the SARS outbreak based on uniform distributions from which you could use 3sigma boundaries were of little use. There are many refereed papers that review the behaviour of interactions in populations, controlled or uncontrolled and/or constrained by interventions when using various sorts of pdf's and the specific suitability of geometric, Poisson and binomial distributions. Have squint at the Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. I think you'll find that statistical modelling has given way to discrete event simulation and other process based evaluations.


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## IainP (Mar 30, 2020)

Just an observation:
On the "by population size" stats 

France, Netherlands, Belgium & Switzerland are featuring higher. Not sure what that says other than as we know Europe is a hot spot.

I expect the USA will be climbing this week also.


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## Hobbit (Mar 30, 2020)

IainP said:



			Just an observation:
On the "by population size" stats

France, Netherlands, Belgium & Switzerland are featuring higher. Not sure what that says other than as we know Europe is a hot spot.

I expect the USA will be climbing this week also.
		
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The UK has a natural barrier, the Channel.


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## Stuart_C (Mar 30, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			The UK has a natural barrier, the Channel.
		
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Thankfully.


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## williamalex1 (Mar 30, 2020)

Stuart_C said:



			Thankfully.
		
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Kay sera sera, C'est la vie.


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## IainP (Mar 31, 2020)

Blue in Munich said:



			A alternative view on the maths from the Peter Hitchens column;

I shall come to these, to underline the fact that it is not I, alone, who have these doubts. I do not claim to be an expert. But I refer to those who definitely are experts, who doubt the wisdom of what we are doing.
It is sad that far too little of this is being reported as prominently as it should be by our supposedly diverse and free media, especially the BBC, which has largely closed its mind and its airwaves to dissent. It is quite funny that a statue of George Orwell stands by the entrance to the BBC, bearing the inscription: ‘If liberty means anything at all it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.’
Obviously, they should take it down, as nobody inside the building appears to believe that.
*Crucially, those who began by claiming that we faced half a million deaths from the coronavirus in this country have now greatly lowered their estimate. Professor Neil Ferguson was one of those largely responsible for the original panic. He or others from Imperial college have twice revised his terrifying prophecy, first to fewer than 20,000 and then on Friday to 5,700.*
...
		
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Re the bit in bold, apparently it assumed this: "His paper predicted that at its highest, Britain would have 260 deaths a day.  "

Seems the total figure has already been revised upwards by the same group


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Mar 31, 2020)

drdel said:



			I think you'll find it is far from setting simplistic 3sigma confidence boundaries. Using models that sought to explain the SARS outbreak based on uniform distributions from which you could use 3sigma boundaries were of little use. There are many refereed papers that review the behaviour of interactions in populations, controlled or uncontrolled and/or constrained by interventions when using various sorts of pdf's and the specific suitability of geometric, Poisson and binomial distributions. Have squint at the Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. I think you'll find that statistical modelling has given way to discrete event simulation and other process based evaluations.
		
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I was only talking very simplistically around why it is quite possible to get very significant changes in estimates from the initial estimates


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## IainP (Mar 31, 2020)

pendodave said:



			I think that Mr boomer may be having a gentle poke at American values.
His grasp of irony makes me think that his most troll-y activity is that he's not actually American at all...
		
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And maybe that poke was well made...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52108162


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## Crazyface (Mar 31, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			The UK has a natural barrier, the Channel.
		
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Like that's working for us. Immigrants are still floating over and still we take them in. Utterly bonkers.


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## IainP (Apr 2, 2020)

As a few have commented, the counting variations are complex. Seems France has done a "catch up"
*1355 new deaths* in *France*, including 884 fatalities in nursing homes that occurred over a period of several weeks and that were announced only today. NOTE: _If and when the French government determines the correct distribution of these additional deaths over time, we will adjust historical data accordingly  _


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## IainP (Apr 3, 2020)

Know we're not meant to look at days in isolation, however noting the UK reported more today than Spain. Better news for Spain if now falling, sobering for UK as Spain was elevated for 10 days or so.

France posting a large number again, so far without the explanation like yesterday.

Sorting by deaths per population the ten most impacted are all European countries (including the UK)


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## IainP (Apr 4, 2020)

^ edit to above, looks like Spain's figures for the 3rd were edited upwards by 300 or so.
Also the US (with the time difference I suppose) increased greatly.
Sad times.


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## harpo_72 (Apr 5, 2020)

Still people are not heeding the request and huge social gatherings occurring. 
This means we won’t see an improvement at all as they will infect each .. having isolated properly from day 1 this going to be a long time!! Every time there is a big gathering they are adding at least a 3 week period of required isolation based on the infection and infectious period.


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## User62651 (Apr 10, 2020)

One for the analysts.
Looking at IainPs recent posts the stats show UK now has around 10,000 deaths of a worldwide total of 100,000 reported so roughly 10%.
Our UK population however is close to 1% of the world population I think.
So is that 10% to be expected given UK was next affected along with France after China and then Italy/Spain so it'll drop right back as other continents catch up or are our UK numbers going to stay proportionately very high? If so why?
Just read the awful numbers today and seems awfully high here before we've reportedly even reached a peak.
Sad times indeed.


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## Jacko_G (Apr 10, 2020)

A couple of bawbags on the golf course in my village today when the wife and I went for a walk, brazen as foxtrot as well with bags.


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## harpo_72 (Apr 10, 2020)

maxfli65 said:



			One for the analysts.
Looking at IainPs recent posts the stats show UK now has around 10,000 deaths of a worldwide total of 100,000 reported so roughly 10%.
Our UK population however is close to 1% of the world population I think.
So is that 10% to be expected given UK was next affected along with France after China and then Italy/Spain so it'll drop right back as other continents catch up or are our UK numbers going to stay proportionately very high? If so why?
Just read the awful numbers today and seems awfully high here before we've reportedly even reached a peak.
Sad times indeed.
		
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Think you have to also consider cities there size and how the accommodation is .. I would be interested in Tokyo as they are totally rammed, Monaco as well is rammed ... They were saying that in New York it was the poor areas that were hit, but they to are close together.
Population density is key surely?


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## rulefan (Apr 10, 2020)

harpo_72 said:



			Population density is key surely?
		
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Exactly


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## PhilTheFragger (Apr 10, 2020)

harpo_72 said:



			Think you have to also consider cities there size and how the accommodation is .. I would be interested in Tokyo as they are totally rammed, Monaco as well is rammed ... They were saying that in New York it was the poor areas that were hit, but they to are close together.
Population density is key surely?
		
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This is why I fear that India has a huge problem brewing, when the cities went into lockdown, the millions of migrant workers all went home to rural India, no idea how many were infected, but it’s going to spread 😔


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## User62651 (Apr 10, 2020)

harpo_72 said:



			Think you have to also consider cities there size and how the accommodation is .. I would be interested in Tokyo as they are totally rammed, Monaco as well is rammed ... They were saying that in New York it was the poor areas that were hit, but they to are close together.
Population density is key surely?
		
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If that is key what about the favelas in Brazil and poor urban sprawls through Africa where you'd imagine healthcare is limited. Would be rife.

Edit: of course age demographic is much younger there which will help them.


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## IanM (Apr 10, 2020)

I’d be surprised if the world total was accurate....some places won’t report properly, others cannot report it properly 

and density of population is significant. (Both meaning of density)


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## Hobbit (Apr 10, 2020)

maxfli65 said:



			If that is key what about the favelas in Brazil and poor urban sprawls through Africa where you'd imagine healthcare is limited. Would be rife.

Edit: of course age demographic is much younger there which will help them.
		
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Not sure the age demographic will be as much of a protection as you might think. You might find that a 50 yr old from a poor slum area, poor nutrition etc is no healthier than a 65 yr old in a more developed country.


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## IainP (Apr 10, 2020)

I suspect those countries with more benefit of time, who also introduced lockdowns/restrictions while the  numbers are small and in the "track n trace" stage have a decent chance of staying pretty low relative to population (e.g. Mauritius were slab is).
With hindsight, several countries in Europe were caught with their pants down.
Agree with the concerns in previous posts about the population density & poverty
Expect the USA to influence the numbers over the next couple of weeks - it's such a big place.
Read earlier that Moscow's hospitals were seriously struggling and Russia has barely registered on the world numbers, which reinforces it is that speed and localisation that creates such a challenge.


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## IainP (Apr 10, 2020)

@maxfli65 not that it makes any difference to the general point, I'd guess the UK will be reporting hiting 10,000+ on Sunday.


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## rulefan (Apr 11, 2020)

IainP said:



			Read earlier that Moscow's hospitals were seriously struggling and Russia has barely registered on the world numbers, which reinforces it is that speed and localisation that creates such a challenge.
		
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I wonder how reliable the figures published from Russia are really.


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## Imurg (Apr 11, 2020)

rulefan said:



			I wonder how reliable the figures published from Russia are really.
		
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With the different reporting methods and timescales from every country can we really take any of the figures from anywhere as reliable..?


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## MegaSteve (Apr 11, 2020)

IainP said:



@maxfli65 not that it makes any difference to the general point, I'd guess the UK will be reporting hiting 10,000+ on Sunday.
		
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As the reported deaths are only those that have died in a hospital... I wouldn't be surprised if the UK hasn't already passed the 10,000+ mark if adding on those, not reported, away from a hospital... Terrible numbers whichever way you look at it...


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## Bigfoot (Apr 11, 2020)

Imurg said:



			With the different reporting methods and timescales from every country can we really take any of the figures from anywhere as reliable..?
		
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They are probably all reliable for that country at that moment and the method of counting - but certainly not comparable. Believable is another point.


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## IainP (Apr 11, 2020)

Notwithstanding the unreliability, as of now taking into account population (& excluding tiny countries), this is the order of impact.

Spain

Italy

Belgium

France

Netherlands

UK

Switzerland

Luxembourg

Sweden

Ireland

USA


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## PhilTheFragger (Apr 12, 2020)

IainP said:



			Notwithstanding the unreliability, as of now taking into account population (& excluding tiny countries), this is the order of impact.

Spain

Italy

Belgium

France

Netherlands

UK

Switzerland

Luxembourg

Sweden

Ireland

USA
		
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last time I looked Luxembourg was a small country of about 600k inhabitants.

Still interesting to see the figures in perspective.

Obviously USA has a huge population, so 20k deaths is small in terms of a percentage. But still tragic

Once this is all over, it’s going to interesting from a stats view to look at the actual deaths compared to the normal expected death rates for each age group.

Some are saying 30% higher than normal

It will also be interesting to compare the countries with advanced care facilities with those with less advanced or none

Or indeed countries with high populations, good facilities in cities, but poor in very rural areas, ie India


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## IainP (Apr 12, 2020)

PhilTheFragger said:



			last time I looked Luxembourg was a small country of about 600k inhabitants.

Still interesting to see the figures in perspective.

Obviously USA has a huge population, so 20k deaths is small in terms of a percentage. But still tragic

Once this is all over, it’s going to interesting from a stats view to look at the actual deaths compared to the normal expected death rates for each age group.

Some are saying 30% higher than normal

It will also be interesting to compare the countries with advanced care facilities with those with less advanced or none

Or indeed countries with high populations, good facilities in cities, but poor in very rural areas, ie India
		
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Yeah I hesitated with Luxembourg, but with them having reported over 60 deaths I left them in (took out San Marino, Andorra etc.)

On the site you can see the US states listed on their own. Using the same measure, New York is unfortunately way ahead.

Yeah, once further down the line, the looking back analysis will be interesting, if sad.


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## IainP (Apr 16, 2020)

IainP said:



			Notwithstanding the unreliability, as of now taking into account population (& excluding tiny countries), this is the order of impact.

Spain
Italy
Belgium
France
Netherlands
UK
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Sweden
Ireland
USA
		
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Just thought I'd repost to see the changes. BBC have just done a piece on updates from around Europe, but still no mention of Belgium - baffled 🤷‍♂️

Belgium  419
Spain  409
Italy  367
France 275
UK  202
Netherlands  193
Switzerland  148
Sweden  132
Luxembourg  110
USA  102
Ireland 98


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## ferenezejohn (Apr 16, 2020)

We will never know the true scale of deaths, especially from China and Russia.


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## IainP (Apr 17, 2020)

ferenezejohn said:



			We will never know the true scale of deaths, especially from China and Russia.
		
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A start...

'The Chinese city of Wuhan - where the virus emerged - has revised its Covid-19 death toll up by 1,209, to 3,869 - an increase of almost 50%

The total was increased to include some of those who died outside hospital, and because of some delayed reports.

"Obviously it will add to suspicion about China's coronavirus figures," our correspondent says.'


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## ferenezejohn (Apr 17, 2020)

IainP said:



			A start...

'The Chinese city of Wuhan - where the virus emerged - has revised its Covid-19 death toll up by 1,209, to 3,869 - an increase of almost 50%

The total was increased to include some of those who died outside hospital, and because of some delayed reports.

"Obviously it will add to suspicion about China's coronavirus figures," our correspondent says.'
		
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I note they said the reason for the discrepancies was their health services were overwhelmed.
Yet they still would have us believe they had less than 4,000 deaths 🤔


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## IainP (Apr 18, 2020)

Referring back to post #95, know shouldn't compare a US state with countries, but NY is apparently 20 million. 

Belgium currently   445 / million 
New York currently 873 / million 
New Jersey              432 / million 

Shocking


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## MadAdey (Apr 18, 2020)

The bottom line is the world is screwed, unless we can come up with the cure/vaccination. We just need to do what we can to keep some kind of control over it. The best way to prove that social distancing works is when you look at a meat processing plant here in America. They continued to work and then all of a sudden they have 644 confirmed cases. There is around 1000 people where I work and we shut down weeks ago and I have not heard of anyone getting it.

So anyone who does not think that social distancing works, think again. That unfortunately is our only defense against it. Over here it has only taken 6 weeks to pass a years worth of deaths from the standard old Flu bug.


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## cliveb (Apr 18, 2020)

The thread title is "anyone done the maths". So putting aside moral and emotional arguments, the simple maths are that even if the death rate was 10% and the entire population of the planet caught it, we're looking at 700 million dead. And the overwhelming majority of those will be - how can I put this - the less economically useful. Quite frankly that would probably do some good for the world. Tragic for those affected, of course, but in the grand scheme of things something that may be needed from time to time.

Lest anyone thinks I'm seriously advocating that we should just let it rip through the population, that's not my position, because that WOULD be immoral.


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## IainP (Apr 19, 2020)

Having recently been on that worldometer site, I did notice on the main page they list the world population growth. I guess it must be a load of algorithms but interesting none the less. Anyway...


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## IainP (Apr 19, 2020)

Does anyone know the population size that corresponds with "London" on here?

Wanted to context check against New York & New Jersey.


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## SocketRocket (Apr 19, 2020)

IainP said:



			Does anyone know the population size that corresponds with "London" on here?
View attachment 30077
Wanted to context check against New York & New Jersey.
		
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London has a population of 9.3 million. Not sure if that's what you're asking though.


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## SocketRocket (Apr 19, 2020)

cliveb said:



			The thread title is "anyone done the maths". So putting aside moral and emotional arguments, the simple maths are that even if the death rate was 10% and the entire population of the planet caught it, we're looking at 700 million dead. And the overwhelming majority of those will be - how can I put this - the less economically useful. Quite frankly that would probably do some good for the world. Tragic for those affected, of course, but in the grand scheme of things something that may be needed from time to time.

Lest anyone thinks I'm seriously advocating that we should just let it rip through the population, that's not my position, because that WOULD be immoral.
		
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You dont advocate it but it would do some good for the world.
Maybe when your time comes around you may have a different outlook.


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## Blue in Munich (Apr 19, 2020)

cliveb said:



			The thread title is "anyone done the maths". So putting aside moral and emotional arguments, the simple maths are that even if the death rate was 10% and the entire population of the planet caught it, we're looking at 700 million dead. And the overwhelming majority of those will be - how can I put this - the less economically useful. Quite frankly that would probably do some good for the world. Tragic for those affected, of course, but in the grand scheme of things something that may be needed from time to time.

Lest anyone thinks I'm seriously advocating that we should just let it rip through the population, that's not my position, because that WOULD be immoral.
		
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Whilst I fully understand the point you are making, I fear your choice of "less economically useful" is unfortunate.

Nurses are "less economically useful", bankers and hedge fund managers are "more economically useful".   I know who we could do with more of at this time and it's not the "more economically useful".   As we are now finding out, the value of people to society doesn't necessarily equate to their economic use; in fact I'd go as far as to say it might be inversely proportional.  It may even prove to be that the business practices of some of the "more economically useful" members of society are in no small way to blame for the position we find ourselves in.


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## cliveb (Apr 19, 2020)

Blue in Munich said:



			Whilst I fully understand the point you are making, I fear your choice of "less economically useful" is unfortunate.

Nurses are "less economically useful", bankers and hedge fund managers are "more economically useful".
		
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I was afraid that trying to use the least inflammatory phrase I could think of would be misinterpreted, and I see that I was right. In hindsight I shouldn't have used the word "economically". Of course nurses are far more useful than bankers and hedge fund managers.

Let's be blunt: the majority of people that Covid-19 kills tend to be old and/or in poor health, and these are the people the world can survive without.

Once again: I'm not suggesting we should just let them die with impunity - that would be callous in the extreme - but that the eventual outcome of this crisis might actually be of some benefit from a hard-nosed unemotional perspective.


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## SocketRocket (Apr 19, 2020)

cliveb said:



			I was afraid that trying to use the least inflammatory phrase I could think of would be misinterpreted, and I see that I was right. In hindsight I shouldn't have used the word "economically". Of course nurses are far more useful than bankers and hedge fund managers.

Let's be blunt: the majority of people that Covid-19 kills tend to be old and/or in poor health, and these are the people the world can survive without.

Once again: I'm not suggesting we should just let them die with impunity - that would be callous in the extreme - but that the eventual outcome of this crisis might actually be of some benefit from a hard-nosed unemotional perspective.
		
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I know what you can do with your 'hard-nosed unemotional perspective'    Do you honestly believe the death of old people could be a desirable outcome . Really!   Please explain why you think its desirable, do they not deserve to live out their old age in peace.  Do you have Parents, if so would you consider their premature death some benefit from a hard-nosed unemotional perspective.  Please stop to think about what you've posted and how upsetting this could be to some people reading this, some may have lost loved ones to Covid.  I'll stop here before I say something I may regret.


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## Blue in Munich (Apr 19, 2020)

cliveb said:



			I was afraid that trying to use the least inflammatory phrase I could think of would be misinterpreted, and I see that I was right. In hindsight I shouldn't have used the word "economically". Of course nurses are far more useful than bankers and hedge fund managers.

Let's be blunt: the majority of people that Covid-19 kills tend to be old and/or in poor health, and these are the people the world can survive without.

Once again: I'm not suggesting we should just let them die with impunity - that would be callous in the extreme - but that the eventual outcome of this crisis might actually be of some benefit from a hard-nosed unemotional perspective.
		
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No, you are not right; I didn’t misinterpret anything. I know exactly the point you were trying to make, but a reference to Darwinism might have been more appropriate than people’s economic value to society, if the post needed to be made at all. 

Trust me that if I hadn’t understood your post, my description of it would have been a lot more harsh than unfortunate.

Goodnight.


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## cliveb (Apr 19, 2020)

Please stop to think about what you've posted and how upsetting this could be to some people reading this, some may have lost loved ones to Covid.  I'll stop here before I say something I may regret.
		
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Ok, I apologise. I thought this thread was about the statistics rather than the morals but I clearly misjudged that.


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## Leftie (Apr 20, 2020)

cliveb said:



			Let's be blunt: the majority of people that Covid-19 kills tend to be old and/or in poor health, and these are the people the world can survive without.

Once again: I'm not suggesting we should just let them die with impunity - that would be callous in the extreme - but that the eventual outcome of this crisis might actually be of some benefit from a hard-nosed unemotional perspective.
		
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Gee thanks.  I'm glad I'm not your father/grandfather.  I really cannot believe the ageism shown throughout this Forum - not just on this thread.


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## SocketRocket (Apr 20, 2020)

cliveb said:



			Ok, I apologise. I thought this thread was about the statistics rather than the morals but I clearly misjudged that.
		
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OK but in that case keep to the numbers and leave the opinions on the value of peoples lives.


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## DRW (Apr 21, 2020)

If anyone is into graphs, this FT guy has some good information graphs :-

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch

Covers things like hospital admissions, deaths, cases, daily graphs, also in the the history has other interesting graphs.

Beats watching telly in the evening I suppose.


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## Doon frae Troon (Apr 21, 2020)

ferenezejohn said:



			I note they said the reason for the discrepancies was their health services were overwhelmed.
Yet they still would have us believe they had less than 4,000 deaths 🤔
		
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Out of interest do you believe the figures that the UK government are announcing.
[Bearing in mind that England have still to count Care Home and other deaths that were pretty obviously Covid 19 related.]


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## ferenezejohn (Apr 21, 2020)

Kaz said:



			Just stop Clive, please.
		
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Doon frae Troon said:



			Out of interest do you believe the figures that the UK government are announcing.
[Bearing in mind that England have still to count Care Home and other deaths that were pretty obviously Covid 19 related.]
		
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The UK's death toll will not be 100% accurate.
However your not seeing doctors here disappear and state censorship and journalist being thrown out the country.
Many countries believe Chinese deaths being reported are no where near realistic, but unlike the UK we will only get information from dissidents who put their lives in danger under a vile regime.


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## Doon frae Troon (Apr 21, 2020)

ferenezejohn said:



			The UK's death toll will not be 100% accurate.
However your not seeing doctors here disappear and state censorship and journalist being thrown out the country.
Many countries believe Chinese deaths being reported are no where near realistic, but unlike the UK we will only get information from dissidents who put their lives in danger under a vile regime.
		
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I did not mention China for comparison.
Just wanted to know if you trusted the UK figures, thanks for your reply.


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## ferenezejohn (Apr 21, 2020)

Doon frae Troon said:



			I did not mention China for comparison.
Just wanted to know if you trusted the UK figures, thanks for your reply.
		
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I don't think the UK are trying to hide anything there might have been a better way to collate the overall figures.


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## IainP (Apr 21, 2020)

Doon frae Troon said:



			Out of interest do you believe the figures that the UK government are announcing.
[Bearing in mind that England have still to count Care Home and other deaths that were pretty obviously Covid 19 related.]
		
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Whenever I've seen the figures it's been really clear what they do and don't include. So it seems an odd question to ask, to me.


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## IainP (Apr 21, 2020)

Back to maths, some sombre milestones today.

Belgium went over 500 reported deaths per million population.
New York State went over 1000 reported deaths per million population.

Incidentally, Connecticut where the PGA Tour is hoping to resume is currently at 397. Whilst maybe inappropriate to compare (especially a less populated state), Italy is at 408.


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## User20204 (Apr 21, 2020)

Kaz said:



			Just stop Clive, please.
		
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This is what's actually wrong with internet forums IMO. 

People make a post, probably quite factual, yet some don't want to face up to it. 

What the fella Clive is saying, regardless of how some snowflakes may feel about it, if right, we probably need to face up to a lot more harsher realities than someone posting up stuff like that. 

Lets be honest, the world could do with losing a couple of billion people as harsh as that sounds.


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## Reemul (Apr 21, 2020)

HappyHacker1 said:



			This is what's actually wrong with internet forums IMO.

People make a post, probably quite factual, yet some don't want to face up to it.

What the fella Clive is saying, regardless of how some snowflakes may feel about it, if right, we probably need to face up to a lot more harsher realities than someone posting up stuff like that.

Lets be honest, the world could do with losing a couple of billion people as harsh as that sounds.
		
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That's so absolutely full of crap, it's an embarrassment that anyone in their right mind would put something like that up. That comment is everything that is wrong with society today and a set of people that believe that. I remember someone saying we don't need those 8 million plus people once and doing his best to get rid of them.

I really wonder how your friends, colleagues and family would feel with you suggesting they should all be dead because we don't need them unless you are of course suggesting we lose a few billion it just doesn't actually have an effect on you and yours and we know where that leads.


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## User20204 (Apr 21, 2020)

Nonsense, it's facing up to facts, however unpleasant they may be, like it or not.


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## User20204 (Apr 21, 2020)

I'll rephrase the world losing a couple of billion, and say, do you think the world would be in a healthier state if there were less people on earth ?


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## JustOne (Apr 22, 2020)

HappyHacker1 said:



			This is what's actually wrong with internet forums IMO.

People make a post, probably quite factual, yet some don't want to face up to it.

What the fella Clive is saying, regardless of how some snowflakes may feel about it, if right, we probably need to face up to a lot more harsher realities than someone posting up stuff like that.

Lets be honest, the world could do with losing a couple of billion people as harsh as that sounds.
		
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There was a guy sunbathing on the beach the other day, I mean how come it's ok for him to do that?  frankly I couldn't care less if he gets it. There was some idiots who thought they'd go ahead and have a big house party, frankly I couldn't care less if they get it. There are lots of people that I find I actually couldn't care less about, that knob who scratched my car that time, that guy at school who bullied everyone. How about ANYONE who belongs to ISIS? anyone in prison for rape/murder, any/all drug dealers, anyone in a cartel, 300,000 pedo's.... I reckon there's quite a few (million?) people that I really couldn't care less about, so I totally understand your post.

I don't see Reemul's reference to Hitler as being the same, it's not like this is something you are orchestrating yourself... 

The only issue with the 'concept' is that it's unfortunate that you couldn't pick only nasty people in the 'cleansing'. There are however lots of people we could do without.... I mean what exactly do the Kardasians do??? 

(nb: I would definitely save ANYONE called Roger or anyone who goes by the nickname LEFTIE)


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## PhilTheFragger (Apr 22, 2020)

Having read through Clive’s posts I can see the point he is making.

Historically we have had periodic wars, famine, plague etc which have significantly reduced the world’s population, 

The last 70 years has seen relative peace and increases in technology and transport and communication have seen foreign aid being given and countless lives being saved which 150 years ago simply wouldn’t have been - Ethiopia famine - live aid are good examples.

There is also no doubt that the population of the planet is exploding, going from 6 to 8 billion in a very short space of time

So purely from a planet sustainability point of view, the population of the planet is artificially high.

Now don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating that the virus is welcome, I don’t want to get it and I don’t want anyone else to get it.

Clive is not advocating genocide , he is simply making a specific point


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## Doon frae Troon (Apr 22, 2020)

ferenezejohn said:



			I don't think the UK are trying to hide anything there might have been a better way to collate the overall figures.
		
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According to the FT the true figures are more than double what has been reported.


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## Hobbit (Apr 22, 2020)

HappyHacker1 said:



			This is what's actually wrong with internet forums IMO.

People make a post, probably quite factual, yet some don't want to face up to it.

What the fella Clive is saying, regardless of how some snowflakes may feel about it, if right, we probably need to face up to a lot more harsher realities than someone posting up stuff like that.

Lets be honest, the world could do with losing a couple of billion people as harsh as that sounds.
		
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The cold, harsh reality is more people will die. If the WHO's prediction is proved accurate, 33 million will die - and the world isn't up to 1 million yet. From the WHO's briefing yesterday, "the worst is still to come." A group of scientists have said there are now 33 strains of the virus - make a vaccine to cover 33 different strains, if you can.

The world might be less polluted for a short while but that is the only benefit to the planet.

Will there be less kids scrabbling through the rubbish tips in Nigeria? No, there'll be more because it'll be their parents that are dead. Roll that thought around the world, to the Barios in Brazil, Soweto and the townships in South Africa, and the huge shanty town next to Mumbai airport and on, and on, and on...

Closer to home, what about the half empty Care homes? Will they be forced to close because of lack of clients, and what happens to those elderly residents that get turfed out? But two half empty Care Homes = one full one - sorted, oh apart from those Carers that lose their job. Who do parents get to look after their kids whilst they go to work if their parents are dead? How do they afford childcare?

Where is the market for all the products when the population has shrunk? Factories close? Are all the retailers needed? Shops close? Govt debt spirals because the tax revenue drops off, on top of the repayments for money just borrowed. Tax rises to pay for the debt. You thought austerity was bad, there's a recession just around the corner the like of which no one has ever experienced before.

The harsh reality is that life for those that survive, even in the developed world is going to get very uncomfortable. I can't see a single positive from "the world could do with losing a couple of billion people." But please do enlighten me, it might make me feel better.


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## Doon frae Troon (Apr 22, 2020)

I have to laugh at the lazy suggestion some folk have that pensioners do not pay taxes.
I can assure you that is wrong.


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## rulefan (Apr 22, 2020)

Doon frae Troon said:



			According to the FT the true figures are more than double what has been reported.
		
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How do they know?


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## MegaSteve (Apr 22, 2020)

Doon frae Troon said:



			According to the FT the true figures are more than double what has been reported.
		
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Read that there is a recognised world standard in the way deaths are reported in the current circumstances... And, no I can't provide a link for those that think a link is needed as verification... Anyway, again from what I've read/heard no two countries are actually reporting deaths in the same manner... France, for example, is including deaths in care homes... Germany records actual cause of death in a different manner etc... Right now, all I know is every single death is causing hurt... And, I remain unsure if that hurt/pain is fully registering in some places...


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## Blue in Munich (Apr 22, 2020)

PhilTheFragger said:



			Having read through Clive’s posts I can see the point he is making.

Historically we have had periodic wars, famine, plague etc which have significantly reduced the world’s population,

The last 70 years has seen relative peace and increases in technology and transport and communication have seen foreign aid being given and countless lives being saved which 150 years ago simply wouldn’t have been - Ethiopia famine - live aid are good examples.

There is also no doubt that the population of the planet is exploding, going from 6 to 8 billion in a very short space of time

So purely from a planet sustainability point of view, the population of the planet is artificially high.

Now don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating that the virus is welcome, I don’t want to get it and I don’t want anyone else to get it.

Clive is not advocating genocide , he is simply making a specific point
		
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I don't think any of us missed the point that was being made Phil, and I don't think any of us are unaware that overpopulation is, & will continue to be an issue, and one that needs to be addressed.

The problem was with the use of the description "less economically useful"; it was crass, vulgar and downright insulting to a number of groups that fall under the umbrella of that description.  Some of those in it are there by misfortune, others are there through choice because the career they have dedicated themselves to is less valued by society than it should be.  It was a dreadful choice of words, and rather than accept that, the defence was along the lines of "poor me, they've deliberately misinterpreted my words".

There are times when the best way to move forward is to stick your hands up & say _"mea culpa"_ rather than try to defend the indefensible.


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## cliveb (Apr 22, 2020)

Blue in Munich said:



			I don't think any of us missed the point that was being made Phil, and I don't think any of us are unaware that overpopulation is, & will continue to be an issue, and one that needs to be addressed.

The problem was with the use of the description "less economically useful"; it was crass, vulgar and downright insulting to a number of groups that fall under the umbrella of that description.  Some of those in it are there by misfortune, others are there through choice because the career they have dedicated themselves to is less valued by society than it should be.  It was a dreadful choice of words, and rather than accept that, the defence was along the lines of "poor me, they've deliberately misinterpreted my words".

There are times when the best way to move forward is to stick your hands up & say _"mea culpa"_ rather than try to defend the indefensible.
		
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Having already apologised for what I agree was clumsy and insensitive wording in my posts, I had intended to stay out of this thread.
But let me once again apologise. I accept that my choice of words was very ill-judged.

(Incidentally, I'll just point out that as a retired and relatively old person, I myself am in the demographic that you feel I have insulted)


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## SocketRocket (Apr 22, 2020)

PhilTheFragger said:



			Having read through Clive’s posts I can see the point he is making.

Historically we have had periodic wars, famine, plague etc which have significantly reduced the world’s population,

The last 70 years has seen relative peace and increases in technology and transport and communication have seen foreign aid being given and countless lives being saved which 150 years ago simply wouldn’t have been - Ethiopia famine - live aid are good examples.

There is also no doubt that the population of the planet is exploding, going from 6 to 8 billion in a very short space of time

So purely from a planet sustainability point of view, the population of the planet is artificially high.

Now don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating that the virus is welcome, I don’t want to get it and I don’t want anyone else to get it.

Clive is not advocating genocide , he is simply making a specific point
		
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Post #121 is disgraceful and I'm surprised you dont condem it.  People here have lost loved ones, some have loved ones seriously ill.


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## User20204 (Apr 22, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			Post #121 is disgraceful and I'm surprised you dont condem it.  People here have lost loved ones, some have loved ones seriously ill.
		
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I suspect he's replied cause someone (you probably) reported it and he's went back  read it in context and has seen it's perfectly relevant.

May be the internet is not for you, you know, where people may have different opinions.

Still waiting on your apology from the link being posted btw


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## SocketRocket (Apr 22, 2020)

HappyHacker1 said:



			I suspect he's replied cause someone (you probably) reported it and he's went back  read it in context and has seen it's perfectly relevant.

May be the internet is not for you, you know, where people may have different opinions.

Still waiting on your apology from the link being posted btw
		
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The internet may not be for me if people like you think the death of millions is something to crow about.  You disgust me.
Regarding your previous posts on the numbers thread, I've answered that for you but not in the middle of the night when you were posting 😒


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## PhilTheFragger (Apr 22, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			Post #121 is disgraceful and I'm surprised you dont condem it.  People here have lost loved ones, some have loved ones seriously ill.
		
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This thread is about the maths ,statistical and economic side of the Corona effects, which sometimes means looking at the subject matter differently 

He was looking at from an economic wealth generating point of view, which while narrow, is within the scope of the thread.

If he had said what he said in the main thread, then that would have been different.

Agree he could have expressed it better


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## PhilTheFragger (Apr 22, 2020)

Socket & Hacker
Wind it in please


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## Swinglowandslow (Apr 22, 2020)

Doon frae Troon said:



			According to the FT the true figures are more than double what has been reported.
		
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Double what?  The number of cases of coronavirus in the population?
That is at best, a guesstimated figure.
But is the suggestion(evidence?) of the FT saying that the briefing figures are being deliberately falsely reported for some nefarious reason?
Can you expand?
Which is it? Which is it that you want to promote .?


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## User62651 (Apr 22, 2020)

Overpopulation is an odd one, parts of UK are very populated, Netherlands too, way more than China and nearly all of Africa for example, however we have the means to feed ourselves because we have ample rainfall and advanced agriculture that also encourages some decent environmental protections.
I think if you stood every human on earth side by side it would fill the Isle of Man, doesn't seem so bad if you look at a world map and think of it like that.
If humanity can stop exploiting the earth's natural resources and so changing climate in an insatiable need for personal wealth/greed and think collectively to pursue renewables more heavily and share wealth then the world population can still go up ok.
Alas humans are largely short termist and selfish by nature.
Capitalism and greed will do us in if we don't change.

Grow food not lawns.....

.....Right then, off to cut the grass with my old 2 stroke Flymo.


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## Kellfire (Apr 22, 2020)

In terms of space, the entire world’s population could live comfortably in the state of Texas. Overpopulation isn’t an issue if wealth is distributed more evenly.


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## User62651 (Apr 22, 2020)

Kellfire said:



			In terms of space, the entire world’s population could live comfortably in the state of Texas. Overpopulation isn’t an issue if wealth is distributed more evenly.
		
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Anorak time, I reckon if you can get 4 people in a 1 m2 area or 0.25m2 each then you'll fit world's 8 billion people in Texas 3.5 times over.
My Isle of Man seems way way too small though, not sure where I heard that. must've been really squashed in.

Sorry, long days.


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## IanM (Apr 22, 2020)

Kellfire said:



			In terms of space, the entire world’s population could live comfortably in the state of Texas. Overpopulation isn’t an issue if wealth is distributed more evenly.
		
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if you ignore the requirement to provide jobs, housing, food and services, yeah they'd fit! (physically)  

You can't just talk about one side of the equation and ignore the other completely, but that applies all political perspectives.


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## Swinglowandslow (Apr 22, 2020)

maxfli65 said:



			Anorak time, I reckon if you can get 4 people in a 1 m2 area or 0.25m2 each then you'll fit world's 8 billion people in Texas 3.5 times over.
My Isle of Man seems way way too small though, not sure where I heard that. must've been really squashed in.

Sorry, long days.
		
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Think it was the Isle of Wight😁   Least, that's the version I heard


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## ColchesterFC (Apr 22, 2020)

maxfli65 said:



			Anorak time, I reckon if you can get 4 people in a 1 m2 area or 0.25m2 each then you'll fit world's 8 billion people in Texas 3.5 times over.
My Isle of Man seems way way too small though, not sure where I heard that. must've been really squashed in.

Sorry, long days.
		
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Social distancing might prove difficult. 👍


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## Imurg (Apr 22, 2020)

maxfli65 said:



			Anorak time, I reckon if you can get 4 people in a 1 m2 area or 0.25m2 each then you'll fit world's 8 billion people in Texas 3.5 times over.
My Isle of Man seems way way too small though, not sure where I heard that. must've been really squashed in.

Sorry, long days.
		
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So......allowing people just shy of 1m2 would still fit everyone in.
I thought the phrase used the words "living comfortably "
Going to the loo wouldn't be a job for the faint hearted


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## Kellfire (Apr 22, 2020)

IanM said:



			if you ignore the requirement to provide jobs, housing, food and services, yeah they'd fit! (physically) 

You can't just talk about one side of the equation and ignore the other completely, but that applies all political perspectives.
		
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My point was that space is not the issue - it’s the distribution of wealth and thus resources.


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## rulefan (Apr 22, 2020)

One of the problems with the stats relating to death is that Drs can enter 1) the primary cause, 2) secondary causes and 3) other conditions on the death cert. All three are included in the (covid 19 related) figures we get on TV etc. Care Home and Hospice figures could well be biased to 2) & 3)

PHE publish the figures after they get the certs and have coded them. That could be days.


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## IanM (Apr 22, 2020)

Kellfire said:



			My point was that space is not the issue - it’s the distribution of wealth and thus resources.
		
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ah, if it was only that simple....    But I do know what you mean, although the distribution of wealth is a function of many many things, not just the inherent lack of fairness.


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## GB72 (Apr 22, 2020)

A question for those who are following the numbers in more detail than me. When we look at the figures for the number who have sadly died, are we looking at the same thing across different countries. I cannot remember where I saw it but  I am sure that I read that, for example, if a person passes away in the UK and has show symptoms of Covid 19 then this is noted on the death certificate irrespective of underlying health issues whereas in Germany, if there are underlying health issues then those are marked as the probable cause of death irrespective of any Covid symptoms.

Just trying to work out whether the graphs we are looking at are containing the same date recorded in the same way or whether the method of recording is impacting on how bleak or positive the position appears.


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## Swinglowandslow (Apr 22, 2020)

GB72 said:



			A question for those who are following the numbers in more detail than me. When we look at the figures for the number who have sadly died, are we looking at the same thing across different countries. I cannot remember where I saw it but  I am sure that I read that, for example, if a person passes away in the UK and has show symptoms of Covid 19 then this is noted on the death certificate irrespective of underlying health issues whereas in Germany, if there are underlying health issues then those are marked as the probable cause of death irrespective of any Covid symptoms.

Just trying to work out whether the graphs we are looking at are containing the same date recorded in the same way or whether the method of recording is impacting on how bleak or positive the position appears.
		
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Yes I remember something along those lines. It is a wonder why the different methods are used, though it could be that the German method, if used, may lead to accusations of "cover up" . Painting a falsely optimistic scenario.
Now I wonder who would suggest such a thing, journos?😉

I think there must be a number of hospital deaths that would have been deaths even if there had been no covid infection of the deceased.


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## SocketRocket (Apr 22, 2020)

GB72 said:



			A question for those who are following the numbers in more detail than me. When we look at the figures for the number who have sadly died, are we looking at the same thing across different countries. I cannot remember where I saw it but  I am sure that I read that, for example, if a person passes away in the UK and has show symptoms of Covid 19 then this is noted on the death certificate irrespective of underlying health issues whereas in Germany, if there are underlying health issues then those are marked as the probable cause of death irrespective of any Covid symptoms.

Just trying to work out whether the graphs we are looking at are containing the same date recorded in the same way or whether the method of recording is impacting on how bleak or positive the position appears.
		
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I doubt if they are exactly the same.


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## Lord Tyrion (Apr 22, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			I doubt if they are the exactly the same.
		
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I agree, this makes the comparisons a nonsense yet they happen constantly. How on earth can we compare our details to Germany when they test more than us, so their 'with virus' figures will be much higher than ours, and their death figures are only if it is the actual cause of death so will be much lower. It is surprising that an agreed method is not used across the board.

I'm making no judgement on which method is correct incidentally.


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## GB72 (Apr 22, 2020)

Swinglowandslow said:



			Yes I remember something along those lines. It is a wonder why the different methods are used, though it could be that the German method, if used, may lead to accusations of "cover up" . Painting a falsely optimistic scenario.
Now I wonder who would suggest such a thing, journos?😉

I think there must be a number of hospital deaths that would have been deaths even if there had been no covid infection of the deceased.
		
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It is one of my constant bugbears that the media do seem to want to ramp up the figures as to people dying from covid as high as possible as that makes great headlines whilst comparing, maybe unfairly, to other countries when the figures may not actually be comparable and using that as a stick to bash various experts and politicians with.


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## SocketRocket (Apr 22, 2020)

Lord Tyrion said:



			I agree, this makes the comparisons a nonsense yet they happen constantly. How on earth can we compare our details to Germany when they test more than us, so their 'with virus' figures will be much higher than ours, and their death figures are only if it is the actual cause of death so will be much lower. It is surprising that an agreed method is not used across the board.

I'm making no judgement on which method is correct incidentally.
		
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When you look at Germany they seem to have a high infection rate but a low death rate, is that anything to do with the way they apportion deaths to people who also have other serious conditions?


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## MegaSteve (Apr 22, 2020)

GB72 said:



			It is one of my constant bugbears that the media do seem to want to ramp up the figures as to people dying from covid as high as possible as that makes great headlines whilst comparing, maybe unfairly, to other countries when the figures may not actually be comparable and using that as a stick to bash various experts and politicians with.
		
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France, by all accounts, is including deaths in care homes in its figures... Is there a reason why the UK isn't doing the same?


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## GB72 (Apr 22, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			When you look at Germany they seem to have a high infection rate but a low death rate, is that anything to do with the way they apportion deaths to people who also have other serious conditions?
		
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It could be. Again, I cannot provide quotes on this as I forgot where I read it but if the UK are proceeding on the presumption that Covid was the cause of death unless proved otherwise whereas Germany are presuming it is the underlying health issues unless proved otherwise then there will obviously be higher figures in the UK.


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## GB72 (Apr 22, 2020)

MegaSteve said:



			France, by all accounts, is including deaths in care homes in its figures... Is there a reason why the UK isn't doing the same?
		
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We are now which is why there are 2 UK curves on the nightly briefing but the figures for those are days behind the deaths reported from hospital. Again though, it would an unfair comparison between france and the Uk if the reporting methods are different.


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## MegaSteve (Apr 22, 2020)

GB72 said:



			We are now which is why there are 2 UK curves on the nightly briefing but the figures for those are days behind the deaths reported from hospital. Again though, it would an unfair comparison between france and the Uk if the reporting methods are different.
		
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As I noted earlier... I'd read there is a world standard in how deaths are reported in these circumstances... Seems the reality is that no two governments have adapted a same comparable standard...


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## User20204 (Apr 22, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			When you look at Germany they seem to have a high infection rate but a low death rate, is that anything to do with the way they apportion deaths to people who also have other serious conditions?
		
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My understanding of Germany's count is based on those who have died from Covid19 not those who have died with catching Covid19.


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## Lord Tyrion (Apr 22, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			When you look at Germany they seem to have a high infection rate but a low death rate, is that anything to do with the way they apportion deaths to people who also have other serious conditions?
		
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Quite possibly, that makes sense. I suspect we won't really know until this is all over and the figures from each country are analysed in more depth in the cold light of day. We may see a few adjustments, caveats etc at that point.


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## rulefan (Apr 22, 2020)

GB72 said:



			the UK are proceeding on the presumption that Covid was the cause of death unless proved otherwise
		
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Just on that point. You will notice that when the newscasters announce death figures, they describe them as 'associated with', 'related to' CV or similar words. They correspond with the three boxes on the death certificate. That means it includes primary cause, secondary cause and also has symptoms. see #148


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## MegaSteve (Apr 22, 2020)

I spoke to my elderly auntie, at the beginning of the outbreak/lockdown... Who said something along the lines of "I don't care what others are saying this is nothing like a war other than a fascination of numbers will happen"...


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## JustOne (Apr 22, 2020)

I'm not sure if the EXACT figures are that important, a rough count is enough for me. Making comparisons between Countries is really queer as the differences have to take so many things into consideration - an approximate will do. If Germany have 140,000 cases or 180,000 I don't think it matters..... however if they suddenly only have 50 cases then I'm interested!
I don't really care if they've reported an extra 50 cases because some people passed away at home and we haven't counted ours... it's not a competition


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## SocketRocket (Apr 23, 2020)

JustOne said:



			I'm not sure if the EXACT figures are that important, a rough count is enough for me. Making comparisons between Countries is really queer as the differences have to take so many things into consideration - an approximate will do. If Germany have 140,000 cases or 180,000 I don't think it matters..... however if they suddenly only have 50 cases then I'm interested!
I don't really care if they've reported an extra 50 cases because some people passed away at home and we haven't counted ours... it's not a competition 

Click to expand...

But there is something interesting in Germanies stats. They have a very high infection rate but a very low reported death rate.  How is this possible, either the people catching it are generally much younger or they have a better way of treating infected people or they are not reporting the death rates in a similar way to other countries.


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## User20204 (Apr 23, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			But there is something interesting in Germanies stats. They have a very high infection rate but a very low reported death rate.  How is this possible, either the people catching it are generally much younger or they have a better way of treating infected people or they are not reporting the death rates in a similar way to other countries.
		
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Hasn't your question already been answered, they are reporting deaths OF CV19 not connected to CV19, and no, I don't have a link to it.


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## cliveb (Apr 23, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			But there is something interesting in Germanies stats. They have a very high infection rate but a very low reported death rate.  How is this possible, either the people catching it are generally much younger or they have a better way of treating infected people or they are not reporting the death rates in a similar way to other countries.
		
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Since they have tested very extensively, they will have found far more cases with mild symptoms. Perhaps the real death rate among the entire population is actually much lower than we think. This is why an antibody test is so urgent - if we can demonstrate that a large number of people have had it and recovered, the situation won't look so bleak.


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## Blue in Munich (Apr 23, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			But there is something interesting in Germanies stats. They have a very high infection rate but a very low reported death rate.  How is this possible, either the people catching it are generally much younger or they have a better way of treating infected people or they are not reporting the death rates in a similar way to other countries.
		
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cliveb said:



			Since they have tested very extensively, they will have found far more cases with mild symptoms. Perhaps the real death rate among the entire population is actually much lower than we think. This is why an antibody test is so urgent -* if we can demonstrate that a large number of people have had it and recovered, the situation won't look so bleak.*

Click to expand...

There is also something that the Germans seem to have found in their testing that can predict when the patients are likely to take a sudden downturn; these people are admitted to hospital and either treated proactively or in a position to be treated as soon as it happens rather than being taken ill, admitted and treated reactively.  I believe I posted a link to it somewhere, if I find it I'll re-post it.

Re the bit I bolded, there was an Oxford University study that said very similar over here, reported in the FT, and there was aloso a link to that somewhere that I posted.


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## Doon frae Troon (Apr 23, 2020)

maxfli65 said:



			Overpopulation is an odd one, parts of UK are very populated, Netherlands too, way more than China and nearly all of Africa for example, however we have the means to feed ourselves because we have ample rainfall and advanced agriculture that also encourages some decent environmental protections.
I think if you stood every human on earth side by side it would fill the Isle of Man, doesn't seem so bad if you look at a world map and think of it like that.
If humanity can stop exploiting the earth's natural resources and so changing climate in an insatiable need for personal wealth/greed and think collectively to pursue renewables more heavily and share wealth then the world population can still go up ok.
Alas humans are largely short termist and selfish by nature.
Capitalism and greed will do us in if we don't change.

Grow food not lawns.....

.....Right then, off to cut the grass with my old 2 stroke Flymo.

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Absolutely spot on…….....do I think the UK public would vote for that sort of reform..........never, the majority are far too selfish and greedy.

Re population overcrowding, I live on the edge of one of the largest unpopulated areas of the UK.
When I hear folk winging on about overcrowded UK I just think that they should get out a bit more and look around them, visit the Flow Country, The Fens, The Galloway Forrest the Isle of Mull.
Perhaps after this CoVid19 thing dies down we may see a change.........new TV programmes like Move To A Remote Underpopulated Island will start re population trends.


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## funkycoldmedina (Apr 23, 2020)

Blue in Munich said:



			There is also something that the Germans seem to have found in their testing that can predict when the patients are likely to take a sudden downturn; these people are admitted to hospital and either treated proactively or in a position to be treated as soon as it happens rather than being taken ill, admitted and treated reactively.  I believe I posted a link to it somewhere, if I find it I'll re-post it.

Re the bit I bolded, there was an Oxford University study that said very similar over here, reported in the FT, and there was aloso a link to that somewhere that I posted.
		
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It's shows why extensive early testing was really needed.


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## Swinglowandslow (Apr 23, 2020)

Blue in Munich said:



			There is also something that the Germans seem to have found in their testing that can predict when the patients are likely to take a sudden downturn; these people are admitted to hospital and either treated proactively or in a position to be treated as soon as it happens rather than being taken ill, admitted and treated reactively.  I believe I posted a link to it somewhere, if I find it I'll re-post it.

Re the bit I bolded, there was an Oxford University study that said very similar over here, reported in the FT, and there was aloso a link to that somewhere that I posted.
		
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Not sure that is the case. Wouldn't they then share that medical knowledge?
As you say, it would be very important for treatment and I don't think it is something that would be suppressed, deliberately or otherwise.
It is likely that their better figures ( high infection, low deaths) are down to more testing and not including deaths where the cause is clearly other than covid *causing *the death. E.g. Heart attack, strokes. .
I considered that good news as it shows the death percentage from covid to be not so frighteningly high.
However, it's statistics. The Germans might want to be reassuring, hence their method. The UK however might be scared of accusations of cover up if they did not record all deaths of those who had positive covid results.


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## SocketRocket (Apr 23, 2020)

Doon frae Troon said:



			Absolutely spot on…….....do I think the UK public would vote for that sort of reform..........never, the majority are far too selfish and greedy.

Re population overcrowding, I live on the edge of one of the largest unpopulated areas of the UK.
When I hear folk winging on about overcrowded UK I just think that they should get out a bit more and look around them, visit the Flow Country, The Fens, The Galloway Forrest the Isle of Mull.
Perhaps after this CoVid19 thing dies down we may see a change.........new TV programmes like Move To A Remote Underpopulated Island will start re population trends.

Click to expand...

I see, you live in an area with low population(and theres a reason why its like that) so theres no problem with population.  England has one of the highest populations per sq mile in the world. 9.3 million in London.
How do you move large numbers of people to remote areas like the Isle of Mull where there is no work or Infastructure. This has to be you Trolling.


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## Swinglowandslow (Apr 23, 2020)

funkycoldmedina said:



			It's shows why extensive early testing was really needed.
		
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Again not sure that's practical. The resources needed to test are considerable.
Are you suggesting you test the population, just in case they have it, or to be able to work out a true percentage of serious or fatal cases?
Say that you test each household member of someone who has covid. (That may be practical)
So they show positive. You couldn't possibly justify hospital admission unless and until they deteriorate. Most people do not deteriorate, they have mild to mid symptoms. More importantly, most who do deteriorate do so *after *a few days, maybe a week, not immediately. It would be a complete guessing game.
The NHS ability to deal with proactive treatment of that is just not possible.
You could possibly make a case for proactive treatment of the vulnerable group who test positive, and it would be great if you could, but I doubt even that is able to be handled by the NHS. The numbers would be too high.
Today, I read of plans to test several thousand households so that trends can be forecast etc. As I understand it,there is no suggestion that those showing positive would be treated any sooner than they would be at present.

However, as a matter of interest, and associated with this subject, did you see the reports that France are going to issue nicotine patches to positives and some health workers( as a preventative measure)?
The rationale is that they are giving some credence to findings that suggest that nicotine may hamper the progress of covid and/or stop the body's immune system from overreacting to the covid virus, thus stopping the patient becoming seriously ill.
Seems that smokers may have an advantage, nicotine-wise.

If that turns out to have some merit, then , yes, test away and if positive ,slap on the old nicotine patch sharpish. 😀


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## IainP (Apr 24, 2020)

Not quite sure which thread is for what these days, but probably best here.

Context is the accuracy of numbers being reported - and as previously discussed the impact on poorer areas.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html


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## IainP (Apr 28, 2020)

Many of us having been asking for some understandable stats on real impact, which we knew would take a bit of time. This is telling;


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## IainP (May 2, 2020)

Finally a bit of insight into Belgium 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52491210


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## cliveb (May 2, 2020)

IainP said:



			Finally a bit of insight into Belgium
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52491210

Click to expand...

- Belgium is including any death that is suspected as Covid-19, even though it may not be known.
- UK is including any death where Covid-19 is present, even if the death might have been caused by some other issue.
- Germany (if I am reading things correctly) is including any death that is known to be caused by Covid-19.
So it seems that in Europe any comparison between stats is basically apples & oranges (and bananas).

The thing that frustrates me most of all is that I see no concerted effort to get a reliable estimate of how many people have actually had Covid-19 and recovered without ever involving the heath services. (Or maybe it's just that the BBC choose not to report on things like this, because it wouldn't be an attention-grabber).
I personally know many people who think they've probably had it.
You don't need to check everyone - a random sampling of just a few thousand people would be statistically significant.


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## IainP (May 2, 2020)

I think your summary is likely correct, I guess there is no world authority that can impose consistency so the best you can do is have the rules each country using explained. Not sure why that take so long to share though.


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## Blue in Munich (May 2, 2020)

And just to add something else into the mix, how many not fully explained deaths that occurred before the pandemic was declared have slipped through the net.  I'm of the opinion that this has been around for a while longer than the time that we started attributing the deaths to it.


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## Swinglowandslow (May 2, 2020)

Blue in Munich said:



			And just to add something else into the mix, how many not fully explained deaths that occurred before the pandemic was declared have slipped through the net.  I'm of the opinion that this has been around for a while longer than the time that we started attributing the deaths to it.
		
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I wouldn't disagree with that suspicion.


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## Hobbit (May 2, 2020)

On the day Spain went into lockdown there were just over 9,000 active cases. Today, as Spain start to go through the phases of de-escalation there are just over 75,000 active cases.

On the day of lockdown there was a bit of a dip in deaths, 48, but had been 193 and 191 either side of lockdown day. Yesterday there were 281.

The capacity and knowledge of the health service here is no doubt better than on lockdown day but it still feels a little uncomfortable to be unlocking.


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## Billysboots (May 2, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			The capacity and knowledge of the health service here is no doubt better than on lockdown day but it still feels a little uncomfortable to be unlocking.
		
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I can’t recall the figures, but a high proportion of UK residents want lockdown to remain, which on the face of it is a surprise.

But I don’t doubt the main driver behind that is fear. Fear of catching the virus, and fear of the unknown. Life after lockdown for most is going to feel every bit as uncomfortable as life in it.


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## Swinglowandslow (May 2, 2020)

Billysboots said:



			I can’t recall the figures, but a high proportion of UK residents want lockdown to remain, which on the face of it is a surprise.

But I don’t doubt the main driver behind that is fear. Fear of catching the virus, and fear of the unknown. Life after lockdown for most is going to feel every bit as uncomfortable as life in it.
		
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Agreed. There are a lot of us oldies in this country. Interestingly, I read today that Chelsea and Westminster hospitals are doing trials with already-licensed drugs, several in fact, from which they have had encouraging results.
They are reasonably confident that this is the path to the easing (or even removal) of lockdown. The rationale is that the medicines will prevent the worst aspects of the virus to stop it being a death threat. There is talk of lockdown free by mid summer using this route.?
A vaccine is still some way off.
I hope this report has some merit. Another benefit of such a management of the virus would be that herd immunity would occur alongside.

Fingers crossed.


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## bobmac (May 4, 2020)

The upward trend has become a downward trend.
While all deaths are tragic, yesterdays figure of 315 shows a downward trend


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## Hobbit (May 4, 2020)

Saw an interesting way at looking at the mortality numbers earlier. Obviously there is the was it Covid, or was it an underlying condition debate that has been running. A number of people look at it different ways.

The article had a different take on it. It, perhaps, doesn't give a definitive number but it gives food for thought.

Picking easy number to explain it, lets say there are around 1000 deaths a day. There be some that are nailed on, unarguably Covid. Lets say 500. But if the average number of deaths for the day over the last 5 years is 400, that leaves 100 'new' deaths. Heart attack, triggered by Covid? A stroke triggered by Covid?

So is it 500 Covid deaths or is it 600?


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## ColchesterFC (May 5, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			Saw an interesting way at looking at the mortality numbers earlier. Obviously there is the was it Covid, or was it an underlying condition debate that has been running. A number of people look at it different ways.

The article had a different take on it. It, perhaps, doesn't give a definitive number but it gives food for thought.

Picking easy number to explain it, lets say there are around 1000 deaths a day. There be some that are nailed on, unarguably Covid. Lets say 500. But if the average number of deaths for the day over the last 5 years is 400, that leaves 100 'new' deaths. Heart attack, triggered by Covid? A stroke triggered by Covid?

So is it 500 Covid deaths or is it 600?
		
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I believe that "excess" deaths are going to become the measure by which countries are ranked on their response to this situation. As an example, between 2010 and 2019 the UK saw X number of deaths on average. In 2020 the UK saw X + Y number of deaths. In Germany between 2010 and 2019 they saw X number of deaths on average. In 2020 they saw X + Y number of deaths. It will be the difference between the "normal" death rate and the current death rate that will educate us most on which countries responded best to the situation.


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## SocketRocket (May 5, 2020)

ColchesterFC said:



			I believe that "excess" deaths are going to become the measure by which countries are ranked on their response to this situation. As an example, between 2010 and 2019 the UK saw X number of deaths on average. In 2020 the UK saw X + Y number of deaths. In Germany between 2010 and 2019 they saw X number of deaths on average. In 2020 they saw X + Y number of deaths. It will be the difference between the "normal" death rate and the current death rate that will educate us most on which countries responded best to the situation.
		
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Only if you consider them by population and population density.Even then I'm not sure if it's a proper comparison as this virus is so different to previous ones.


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## Slab (May 5, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			On the day Spain went into lockdown there were just over 9,000 active cases. Today, as Spain start to go through the phases of de-escalation there are just over 75,000 active cases.

On the day of lockdown there was a bit of a dip in deaths, 48, but had been 193 and 191 either side of lockdown day. Yesterday there were 281.

The capacity and knowledge of the health service here is no doubt better than on lockdown day but it still feels a little uncomfortable to be unlocking.
		
Click to expand...

Prompted me to go back and check our numbers:

The night lockdown was announced we had 7 active cases found in preceding two days and no deaths, all businesses told to shut & all borders closed
Two days later and confinement level increased to 'curfew' after 1st death and people breaking confinement rules, all food stores told to shut for a week with immediate effect
Active cases increased to a total of 332
Six and a half weeks on and we now have just 3 active cases as of last night and there have been 10 deaths 
Despite the numbers suggesting we should be 'unlocked' the Curfew period has actually been extended for another 4 weeks to 1st June. Schools are closed for another three months

I believe we are targeting a total eradication before letting people back outside and then they'll look at opening borders sometime after that


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## IainP (May 5, 2020)

There has been a fair bit of speculation about the virus being around earlier, some confirmations starting to come

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554


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## apj0524 (May 5, 2020)

IainP said:



			There has been a fair bit of speculation about the virus being around earlier, some confirmations starting to come

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554

Click to expand...

Until there is a bigger number cases from this time to convince me otherwise, I think this is a test false positive


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## Imurg (May 5, 2020)

On the subject of numbers...
Keep an eye on Russia.
Their case numbers are sky rocketing 
Relatively low mortality rate at the moment but.......


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## larmen (May 5, 2020)

I think the Russia numbers have been creative from the very beginning and I wouldn’t use them to see any kind of trend.


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## GB72 (May 5, 2020)

Just looking at a graph on the BBC live update showing the rolling number of deaths so a better graph to work from and it has got me asking, did we, in fact, flatten the curve much at all. The graphs I saw for a flattened curve should show a lower number of deaths on a daily basis but over a more prolonged period. The graph i am looking at seems to show the complete opposite, a steep climb to a peak around 10th April and then a drop off at a similar rate to the climb. Just does not look like I had understood that it would


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## SocketRocket (May 5, 2020)

GB72 said:



			Just looking at a graph on the BBC live update showing the rolling number of deaths so a better graph to work from and it has got me asking, did we, in fact, flatten the curve much at all. The graphs I saw for a flattened curve should show a lower number of deaths on a daily basis but over a more prolonged period. The graph i am looking at seems to show the complete opposite, a steep climb to a peak around 10th April and then a drop off at a similar rate to the climb. Just does not look like I had understood that it would
		
Click to expand...

Surely the curves to follow in this respect are the number of infections and numbers of critical care patients.  The concern was that the numbers in critical care would pass the level of capacity for the NHS to cope.  The death rate is (although very sad) a related outcome of the numbers in critical care.


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## pendodave (May 5, 2020)

GB72 said:



			Just looking at a graph on the BBC live update showing the rolling number of deaths so a better graph to work from and it has got me asking, did we, in fact, flatten the curve much at all. The graphs I saw for a flattened curve should show a lower number of deaths on a daily basis but over a more prolonged period. The graph i am looking at seems to show the complete opposite, a steep climb to a peak around 10th April and then a drop off at a similar rate to the climb. Just does not look like I had understood that it would
		
Click to expand...

Optimistically, it has proved easier to control the number of new infections than they thought. Hence they've declined faster than expected....


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## ColchesterFC (May 5, 2020)

GB72 said:



			Just looking at a graph on the BBC live update showing the rolling number of deaths so a better graph to work from and it has got me asking, did we, in fact, flatten the curve much at all. The graphs I saw for a flattened curve should show a lower number of deaths on a daily basis but over a more prolonged period. The graph i am looking at seems to show the complete opposite, a steep climb to a peak around 10th April and then a drop off at a similar rate to the climb. Just does not look like I had understood that it would
		
Click to expand...

Another way to look at it could be that lockdown has worked better than expected. Instead of a long flattened peak it's coming down more steeply.


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## pendodave (May 5, 2020)

Also optimistically, I read that Austria has shown no significant increase n infection since restrictions were eased. This seems to be a pattern (Denmark, Czech Republic and Germany also seen to be under control) which might encourage our lot to look out from behind the sofa. Obviously big differences in demographics, population etc etc, but good news nonetheless.


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## IainP (May 12, 2020)

Putting aside the excitement of golf returning for some of us - this is a sobering graph 🙁




I wonder if they'll be any whistleblowers from Russia also, can only assume their numbers are made up.


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## DRW (May 13, 2020)

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern

If you like graphs/spreadsheets of figures, well worth looking at some of his graphs. Came across this guy a while ago and some of the tracking by date of death rather than when reported and breakdown are interesting.


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## drdel (May 13, 2020)

A big question is as the death rate gradient declines the 'curves' the daily deaths will fall and it will become asymptotic and stabilises at, we hope, the normal death rate. However it may never get to 'normal' and with the virus within the community how long do we wait and at what level above normal is acceptable?


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## Hobbit (May 13, 2020)

drdel said:



			A big question is as the death rate gradient declines the 'curves' the daily deaths will fall and it will become asymptotic and stabilises at, we hope, the normal death rate. However it may never get to 'normal' and with the virus within the community how long do we wait and at what level above normal is acceptable?
		
Click to expand...

We won’t know what the new normal death rate is whilst the social interaction is severely curbed.

Equally, there are a number of diseases around that have been here for hundreds of years. I do wonder if we will just have to learn to live with a new ‘Smallpox’ that might flare up.


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## drdel (May 13, 2020)

Hobbit said:



			We won’t know what the new normal death rate is whilst the social interaction is severely curbed.

Equally, there are a number of diseases around that have been here for hundreds of years. I do wonder if we will just have to learn to live with a new ‘Smallpox’ that might flare up.
		
Click to expand...

If we looked at a ‘standard’ model for an epidemic they mostly look something like this..



(S = those susceptible; I= number infected, R=those individuals who have been infected and then 'removed' from the disease, either due to antibodies or death. Those in this category are not able to be infected again or to transmit the infection to others.)

Were the UK’s data to be like the red line (and the 7day moving average is pretty similar I'd suggest) there’s about another 6 to 8 weeks before we will start to reaching diminishing returns. Hopefully that would enable society to 'return' to a new normal with a vaccine or therapy intervention!


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## bobmac (May 13, 2020)

Number of UK daily deaths....
22nd Apr....837
29th Apr....795
6th May.....649
13th May...494


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## Backache (May 13, 2020)

drdel said:



			If we looked at a ‘standard’ model for an epidemic they mostly look something like this..

View attachment 30653

(S = those susceptible; I= number infected, R=those individuals who have been infected and then 'removed' from the disease, either due to antibodies or death. Those in this category are not able to be infected again or to transmit the infection to others.)

Were the UK’s data to be like the red line (and the 7day moving average is pretty similar I'd suggest) there’s about another 6 to 8 weeks before we will start to reaching diminishing returns. Hopefully that would enable society to 'return' to a new normal with a vaccine or therapy intervention!
		
Click to expand...

Don't know what's on your y axis but Spain is only reporting a 5% rate of antibodies in the population and ours are probably not dissimilar.


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## drdel (May 13, 2020)

Backache said:



			Don't know what's on your y axis but Spain is only reporting a 5% rate of antibodies in the population and ours are probably not dissimilar.
		
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I was really just thinking about the shape and the tail off rate. The dependent variable is just to show proportionality. The theory is also assuming full knowledge across the population, 100% testing so a bit abstract - as with all mathematical propositions 👍👍


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## funkycoldmedina (May 13, 2020)

Backache said:



			Don't know what's on your y axis but Spain is only reporting a 5% rate of antibodies in the population and ours are probably not dissimilar.
		
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Do you have any idea how Spain can put a number on that rate with any confidence?


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## SocketRocket (May 13, 2020)

Backache said:



			Don't know what's on your y axis but Spain is only reporting a 5% rate of antibodies in the population and ours are probably not dissimilar.
		
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I assume X is Time and Y is Volume.


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## Backache (May 14, 2020)

funkycoldmedina said:



			Do you have any idea how Spain can put a number on that rate with any confidence?
		
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I would imagine that it is testing antibodies in a form of stratified random samping of the population but I don't know, I've only seen the reports not the methodology.


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## Backache (May 14, 2020)

SocketRocket said:



			I assume X is Time and Y is Volume.
		
Click to expand...

Sure, it was the units I was wondering about as there are numbers on the axes.


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## drdel (May 14, 2020)

Backache said:



			Sure, it was the units I was wondering about as there are numbers on the axes.
		
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The axis are just a scale, if you want use actual relevant data just reapportion. You will need to estimate the population of infections.


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## bobmac (May 17, 2020)

Number of UK daily deaths....
12th Apr....686
19th Apr....498
26th Apr...420
3rd May.....315
10th May...268
Today........170


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## drdel (May 17, 2020)

bobmac said:



			Number of UK daily deaths....
12th Apr....686
19th Apr....498
26th Apr...420
3rd May.....315
10th May...268
Today........170
		
Click to expand...

Today's number will jump a bit because of the weekend lag and N Ireland data had a gliche.

I'd estimate the death curve to be a somewhat flattened Euler distribution which means the 'tail' may be quite stretched.


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## IainP (May 18, 2020)

bobmac said:



			Number of UK daily deaths....
12th Apr....686
19th Apr....498
26th Apr...420
3rd May.....315
10th May...268
Today........170
		
Click to expand...

Comparing the same day of the week as you've done recently helps to remove some the reporting timeline uncertainty 👍

And good to see the new cases below 3K for first time in ages. Long may that continue to fall 🤞


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## bobmac (May 21, 2020)

Midweek figures

22nd Apr....837
29th Apr....795
6th May.....649
13th May...494
20th May...363


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## rulefan (May 21, 2020)

Isn't new confirmed cases a more significant number than deaths?


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## bobmac (May 21, 2020)

rulefan said:



			Isn't new confirmed cases a more significant number than deaths?
		
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I guess that would depend on who you ask.


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## Lord Tyrion (May 21, 2020)

bobmac said:



			I guess that would depend on who you ask.
		
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I completely get your point but it means in terms of the trend. Someone in the death statistics may have contracted the virus 2 months ago and been on a ventilator for 8 weeks before sadly passing. Infections show where we are going.


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## IainP (May 21, 2020)

Ultimately they are both important.
Does anyone have any insight into why no new cases numbers were published for UK yesterday?


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## Italian outcast (May 21, 2020)

IainP said:



			Ultimately they are both important.
Does anyone have any insight into why no new cases numbers were published for UK yesterday?
		
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They got themselves in a real muddle over this - its all do to their reporting of cases under pillar 1, 2 etc - and then reassigning cases to different pillars at a later data (i know more confusion) so there numbers don't align 
(they actually lost cases yesterday from the previous day)

The actual new number is around 2,500 - so coming down

Hate to say it - I suspect we may be seeing something of a _goal-seeking _approach to testing and reporting to make sure the numbers stay on this downward trend


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## bobmac (Jun 8, 2020)

Last 8 weeks daily death figures 

20 Apr    559
27th       338

4th May  288
11th       210
18th       160
25th       121

1st June   111
Today        55


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## Old Skier (Jun 8, 2020)

Always wait for Tuesday before I look at any figures.


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## Doon frae Troon (Jun 8, 2020)

bobmac said:



			Last 8 weeks daily death figures

20 Apr    559
27th       338

4th May  288
11th       210
18th       160
25th       121

1st June   111
Today        55
		
Click to expand...

Is that England or UK figures.


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## bobmac (Jun 8, 2020)

Doon frae Troon said:



			Is that England or UK figures.
		
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On the website it says UK

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


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## IainP (Jun 10, 2020)

A smidge over a thousand new cases today, be good to see that drop into 3 figures.

Most have probably seen this - some attempted analysis of how covid came into the UK.

I think a few of us did think at the time with being an island the borders could have been closed sooner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734


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## Crazyface (Jun 12, 2020)

IainP said:



			A smidge over a thousand new cases today, be good to see that drop into 3 figures.

Most have probably seen this - some attempted analysis of how covid came into the UK.

I think a few of us did think at the time with being an island the boarders should have been closed sooner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734

Click to expand...


Fixed that for you.


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## DRW (Jun 18, 2020)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471

almost 70% of under 60s, develop no symptoms  not peered reviewed etc.

Going to be an interesting read later, cant quite believe it


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## Paperboy (Jun 18, 2020)

DRW said:



https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471

almost 70% of under 60s, develop no symptoms  not peered reviewed etc.

Going to be an interesting read later, cant quite believe it
		
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My Cousin a frontline nurse (late 30's) had it and no symptoms what so ever. Couldn't wait to get back to C19 ward.
An acquittances wife also a front line nurse contracted it (Mid to late 40's) got knocked for 6, 2 weeks in bed. Third week moving around the house. 

I still think the actual cases not confirmed would equal the cases confirmed, only my opinion though.


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## funkycoldmedina (Jun 18, 2020)

DRW said:



https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471

almost 70% of under 60s, develop no symptoms  not peered reviewed etc.

Going to be an interesting read later, cant quite believe it
		
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting these papers DRW, they always make interesting reading.


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## Billysboots (Jun 18, 2020)

Paperboy said:



			I still think the actual cases not confirmed would equal the cases confirmed, only my opinion though.
		
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Really? I very much think the unconfirmed cases will outnumber the confirmed ones several times over.

I’ve had it (confirmed via an antibody test), and my symptoms were mild bordering on non-existent, despite me being over 50 and vulnerable owing to a mild underlying condition. An immediate work colleague has also had it, and had no symptoms.

The medics administering my test suggested up to 20% tested were positive for antibodies, the majority with mild or no symptoms. Transfer that percentage into the general population and you’re looking at the region of 12m cases. At the last count the UK had just shy of 300k confirmed cases.


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## GB72 (Jun 19, 2020)

it looks like Italy, as well as France, have found evidence that Covid 19 was around in December. I wonder how this impacts the figures in that it looks plausible that the virus was running free around Europe of a couple of months at least before it was picked up as a threat. Could the spike in infection rates that occurred in March actually have been a gradual build up over several months. Probably a ridiculous suggestion and no action was taken that would have ended the first one but is there any argument that what we are experiencing is, in fact, the second wave, the first wave having passed through December-February undetected. Guessing the lack of increase in the death rates puts paid to that as a suggestion.


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## larmen (Jun 19, 2020)

GB72 said:



			the first wave having passed through December-February undetected. Guessing the lack of increase in the death rates puts paid to that as a suggestion.
		
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I am not surprised we had some cases in Europe earlier, think about all the work travel going on to China. But the lower death rates back then doesn’t really show a wave, in my opinion. We only really heard about it impacting once people came back from skiing in the alps.
it is probably impossible to find out when and how it really started.
maybe they should roll out antibody testing across the country.


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## ColchesterFC (Jun 19, 2020)

GB72 said:



			it looks like Italy, as well as France, have found evidence that Covid 19 was around in December. I wonder how this impacts the figures in that it looks plausible that the virus was running free around Europe of a couple of months at least before it was picked up as a threat. Could the spike in infection rates that occurred in March actually have been a gradual build up over several months. Probably a ridiculous suggestion and no action was taken that would have ended the first one but is there any argument that what we are experiencing is, in fact, the second wave, the first wave having passed through December-February undetected. Guessing the lack of increase in the death rates puts paid to that as a suggestion.
		
Click to expand...

Is it possible that the virus was around earlier than previously thought but in a milder or less serious form? Could it have then mutated to make it more deadly? Hence the first wave passed through relatively un-noticed, people getting unwell but not dying from it, but then a mutation of the virus caused the massive increase in deaths that we have seen since March.


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## IainP (Jul 3, 2020)

Yesterday the tracker site reported over 200K cases in one day (worldwide).
Difficult to conclude how much of that is greater access to testing, or it's spreading more quickly.

The reported death rates haven't increased with the same pace, and remain lower than the late March/early April peaks. Optimistically might think that globally the treatment is better understood and more options available. Conversely as has been discussed previously, how accurate and consistent is the reporting, especially in some of the countries being impacted harder currently.
Tricky to make sense of it all.


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## Crazyface (Jul 4, 2020)

ColchesterFC said:



			Is it possible that the virus was around earlier than previously thought but in a milder or less serious form? Could it have then mutated to make it more deadly? Hence the first wave passed through relatively un-noticed, people getting unwell but not dying from it, but then a mutation of the virus caused the massive increase in deaths that we have seen since March.
		
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The amount of people that had a mysterious bug in December was huge. No it wasn't flu. Yes it knocked you for six. Yes it hung around you for bluddy weeks. I would love to know if I'd had it.


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## williamalex1 (Jul 4, 2020)

Crazyface said:



			The amount of people that had a mysterious bug in December was huge. No it wasn't flu. Yes it knocked you for six. Yes it hung around you for bluddy weeks. I would love to know if I'd had it.
		
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I was at the doctor a few times in January and February about my constant dry cough, she said it was Strep throat  or something like that.
But I'm still here 6 months on, so fingers crossed.


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## larmen (Jul 4, 2020)

Maybe the math we really need is finding out how much a roll out of the antibody test will cost?


My GFs boss has just been tested and apparently he had it at some point.
His wife however has not. Same household.


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## Billysboots (Jul 4, 2020)

larmen said:



			My GFs boss has just been tested and apparently he had it at some point.
His wife however has not. Same household.
		
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I know a few couples like that, including me and my good lady. I’ve had it, she hasn’t.


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## larmen (Jul 4, 2020)

Billysboots said:



			I know a few couples like that, including me and my good lady. I’ve had it, she hasn’t.
		
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I wonder if that is likely, or if one of yours (and others) test might not be accurate?
Did you have it and isolate? Or did you find out later?

On the one hand you can't shake hands after a round of golf, but then, you can live with another person without getting it.
This virus is as consistent as my long irons.


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## williamalex1 (Jul 4, 2020)

If I was a young guy my chat up line would be " I'm an Eco builder, I've been insulating for 3 months "


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## Billysboots (Jul 5, 2020)

larmen said:



			I wonder if that is likely, or if one of yours (and others) test might not be accurate?
Did you have it and isolate? Or did you find out later?

On the one hand you can't shake hands after a round of golf, but then, you can live with another person without getting it.
This virus is as consistent as my long irons.
		
Click to expand...

I had it and found out later via an antibody test. I did have some symptoms when I felt off colour, but not classic coronavirus symptoms. 

My guess if you’re not coughing and spluttering everywhere and aren’t really displaying symptoms then it may not be that contagious, but I’m only guessing based on our own circumstances.

Either that, or I need to try harder at the more romantic elements of marriage!


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## Crazyface (Jul 6, 2020)

Does anyone thing this will just go away in it's own time or will a vaccine have to be found to actually eradicate it?


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## Hobbit (Jul 6, 2020)

Crazyface said:



			Does anyone thing this will just go away in it's own time or will a vaccine have to be found to actually eradicate it?
		
Click to expand...

The original Corona Virus was identified in 1931. There was an outbreak in the early 60's, and... can't remember the other. This version may well fade into the background but there'll be others. 

Currently, there's an outbreak of bubonic plague in Mongolia... think that's been around before. Wonder where it will end up.


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## GB72 (Jul 6, 2020)

Crazyface said:



			Does anyone thing this will just go away in it's own time or will a vaccine have to be found to actually eradicate it?
		
Click to expand...

There has to be something changing. I just cannot see how recent mass gatherings have had at most a nominal impact. Are the chances of it spreading outside actually very low, is it becoming less virulent (I know that theory was shot down when put forward in Italy) is it just that the chance of contacting someone with it is now very low. I am at a bit of a loss with the current numbers against recent behaviour


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## pendodave (Jul 6, 2020)

GB72 said:



			There has to be something changing. I just cannot see how recent mass gatherings have had at most a nominal impact. Are the chances of it spreading outside actually very low, is it becoming less virulent (I know that theory was shot down when put forward in Italy) is it just that the chance of contacting someone with it is now very low. I am at a bit of a loss with the current numbers against recent behaviour
		
Click to expand...

How virulent has it ever been? Well over half the UK deaths are as a result of seeding the care homes. Most of the rest very old or ill. It's unpleasant, but it's not the Mongolian bubonic plague, whatever they keep telling us...


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## SocketRocket (Jul 6, 2020)

pendodave said:



			How virulent has it ever been? Well over half the UK deaths are as a result of seeding the care homes. Most of the rest very old or ill. It's unpleasant, but it's not the Mongolian bubonic plague, whatever they keep telling us...
		
Click to expand...

Old lives matter.


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## Billysboots (Jul 6, 2020)

Crazyface said:



			Does anyone thing this will just go away in it's own time or will a vaccine have to be found to actually eradicate it?
		
Click to expand...

I’m going to stick my head above the parapet and say I think this will run a natural course, and a combination of a reduction in potency and improved treatments will see it become part of our lives.

For all the fuss about VE Day celebrations causing a spike, we haven’t seen one. Same goes, so far, for the BLM protests. Whilst those countries which have eased their way out of their lockdown seem to have suffered small spikes, they seem to be local and have been suppressed quite quickly.

I’m just starting to feel that we are seeing a chink of light.


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## Swinglowandslow (Jul 7, 2020)

pendodave said:



			How virulent has it ever been? Well over half the UK deaths are as a result of seeding the care homes. Most of the rest very old or ill. It's unpleasant, but it's not the Mongolian bubonic plague, whatever they keep telling us...
		
Click to expand...

Well, for a start, the bubonic plague can be treated with antibiotics apparently, so it can be contained, and has been around in Chine for years. Due to its time and infamy in history it sounds a frightening threat, but it can be dealt with.
As for Covid I see in today's press that three Pubs have re-closed due to some punter testing positive. It is lurking there , like a volcano ready to erupt again, IMHO, so we should still be vigilant.
I agree that we may well find that many more than we thought of our population have had Covid, but the true test will come in colder months, unless the vaccine becomes (hopefully)available first.


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## Deleted member 16999 (Jul 7, 2020)

USA has between 1 & 17 cases of Plague a year.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/plague-exists-now-us/story?id=55860883


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## GB72 (Jul 7, 2020)

Interesting figures from the US that the average age of a Covid patient has come down in age by 15 years in the last few months with previous averages being in the 50s and 60s and now it is 33. Part of that is down to younger people either in front line jobs or customer facing jobs, the rest is down to their flagrant breaching of social distancing. 

Would be interested to see similar figures for the UK and see if the bulk of cases has moved to the younger generations.


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## drdel (Jul 7, 2020)

Billysboots said:



			I’m going to stick my head above the parapet and say I think this will run a natural course, and a combination of a reduction in potency and improved treatments will see it become part of our lives.

For all the fuss about VE Day celebrations causing a spike, we haven’t seen one. Same goes, so far, for the BLM protests. Whilst those countries which have eased their way out of their lockdown seem to have suffered small spikes, they seem to be local and have been suppressed quite quickly.

I’m just starting to feel that we are seeing a chink of light.
		
Click to expand...

i think the opposite. The world population has grown and so population density is very high in many places. Add to that air travel (was) prolific so I'm afraid we have all the factors to make pandemics more common.

Convid19 will be common until a vaccine enables it to be better controlled.


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## IainP (Jul 7, 2020)

Some may think this is karma 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53319517


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## User62651 (Jul 7, 2020)

Find the Melbourne situation worrying. They were pretty succesful in terms of minimising deaths (106) and cases - doing things properly, now after significant increases in cases they are shutting down Melbourne hard for another 6 weeks. Another 6 weeks is a long time after some easing has already taken place - so demoralising for those needing to work to survive, those stuck in flats etc, elderly unable to see family etc. Only allowed out for food/medicine/exercise etc. I thought they might do 2 weeks which is the isolate time, not 6. Seems to be tower blocks where it's taken off, crowded areas but they're not sure why. Imagine getting that here again!

Israel is close to locking down again after significant cases increase since easing.

Here the BLM protests around the UK followed by ignoring of social distancing by hordes of young revellers in London and elsewhere on Saturday must have an effect here - how much remains to be seen. Here they're saying 80% of infected are asymptomatic so wont get tested, they are still spreaders though. Our testing system remains very weak. Seen plenty folk sat outside at cafes and pubs today here, just opened, 2m is not really being followed. The serving staff not wearing masks because it's outside but standing right next to customers again and again over the duration of the day. 

Was in the bank using the deposits machine and member of staff (no mask on) appropached to within 0.5m of me to ask if I needed any help! Not right.

Where this will end up is anyone's guess, we're no clearer on the future than we were 4 months ago. Worries and stresses over employment and finances getting worse by the week. Grim.


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## Imurg (Jul 15, 2020)

That spike may be the addition of 1200+ Pillar 2 positives from Wales.
They've only just been added.
Overall rates are still falling ....


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## IainP (Jul 15, 2020)

Kaz said:



			Have been looking at the UK new cases chart with concern over the last week as it threatens to trend upwards. And now a big spike yesterday. Hope it's a blip but looking ominous.

View attachment 31638

Click to expand...

Suspect whoever did the chart jumped the gun a little ....

*398 new cases* and *138 new deaths* in *the United Kingdom*_. The Government reported 398 new cases today. In addition, the total lab-confirmed cases for Wales now include Pillar 2 tests which means that the total number of UK lab-confirmed cases has increased by 1,240 since yesterday. As the Welsh methodology is improved, some revisions are expected in the next 1 to 2 weeks_


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## SocketRocket (Jul 15, 2020)

Kaz said:



			Phew - I'm missing seeing these numbers we used to get in the old daily briefing.
		
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You can see them on the .GOV web site


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## IainP (Jul 17, 2020)

IainP said:



			Yesterday the tracker site reported over 200K cases in one day (worldwide).
Difficult to conclude how much of that is greater access to testing, or it's spreading more quickly.

The reported death rates haven't increased with the same pace, and remain lower than the late March/early April peaks. Optimistically might think that globally the treatment is better understood and more options available. Conversely as has been discussed previously, how accurate and consistent is the reporting, especially in some of the countries being impacted harder currently.
Tricky to make sense of it all.
		
Click to expand...

2 weeks later, and just under 250K cases in one day (worldwide).

Feels like we are some way off things tailing off globally.


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## IainP (Jul 23, 2020)

Looking like cases on the rise a bit across Europe, although not to the levels we saw a few months back.

280K worldwide reported yesterday 😮

Note that Trump's rhetoric has changed recently


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## Billysboots (Jul 24, 2020)

IainP said:



			Looking like cases on the rise a bit across Europe, although not to the levels we saw a few months back.

280K worldwide reported yesterday 😮

Note that Trump's rhetoric has changed recently
		
Click to expand...

Although if things continue in Spain and, to an extent, France as they have in the last few days we could be in trouble again. Let’s hope deaths don’t start on the same upward trajectory in a couple of weeks.


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## pauljames87 (Jul 24, 2020)

maxfli65 said:



			Find the Melbourne situation worrying. They were pretty succesful in terms of minimising deaths (106) and cases - doing things properly, now after significant increases in cases they are shutting down Melbourne hard for another 6 weeks. Another 6 weeks is a long time after some easing has already taken place - so demoralising for those needing to work to survive, those stuck in flats etc, elderly unable to see family etc. Only allowed out for food/medicine/exercise etc. I thought they might do 2 weeks which is the isolate time, not 6. Seems to be tower blocks where it's taken off, crowded areas but they're not sure why. Imagine getting that here again!

Israel is close to locking down again after significant cases increase since easing.

Here the BLM protests around the UK followed by ignoring of social distancing by hordes of young revellers in London and elsewhere on Saturday must have an effect here - how much remains to be seen. Here they're saying 80% of infected are asymptomatic so wont get tested, they are still spreaders though. Our testing system remains very weak. Seen plenty folk sat outside at cafes and pubs today here, just opened, 2m is not really being followed. The serving staff not wearing masks because it's outside but standing right next to customers again and again over the duration of the day.

Was in the bank using the deposits machine and member of staff (no mask on) appropached to within 0.5m of me to ask if I needed any help! Not right.

Where this will end up is anyone's guess, we're no clearer on the future than we were 4 months ago. Worries and stresses over employment and finances getting worse by the week. Grim.
		
Click to expand...

same will happen to new zealand ... they locked down too well..  like parents who wont let their kids get dirty or touch anything.. they get a simple cold and it knocks them for six as they have zero immunity


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## SwingsitlikeHogan (Jul 24, 2020)

Trump's rhetoric may have changed in the Tuesday night briefing as his aides would have pointed out his disastrous ratings in his management of the crisis - but he started to revert to type yesterday...a leopard cannot change it's spots.  His argument that the only reason the 'numbers' infected are increasing is that there is more testing, is rather undermined when the numbers going into hospital are also increasing.  Not sure that he understands that.


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## Crazyface (Jul 24, 2020)

Reading the stats this morning the current death rate is below the average for the time of year. Why are we wearing masks?


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## ColchesterFC (Jul 24, 2020)

Crazyface said:



			Reading the stats this morning the current death rate is below the average for the time of year. Why are we wearing masks?
		
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Because, as harsh as it might sound, many of those that have died from Corona Virus probably would have died anyway this year. Due to the virus a large number of deaths have occurred early in the year so those people are no longer around to die now which brings the deaths now under the 5 yearly average.


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## pendodave (Jul 24, 2020)

Crazyface said:



			Reading the stats this morning the current death rate is below the average for the time of year. Why are we wearing masks?
		
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Because, in our crazy looking glass world, what matt hancock decides becomes law tomorrow...
You might also question why we've burned our economy, our children's education, all non covid nhs services etc etc etc when this was always going to be the outcome. But that is not popular point of view amongst those who are not (un)employed or with school age children...


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## SocketRocket (Jul 24, 2020)

pendodave said:



			Because, in our crazy looking glass world, what matt hancock decides becomes law tomorrow...
You might also question why we've burned our economy, our children's education, all non covid nhs services etc etc etc when this was always going to be the outcome. But that is not popular point of view amongst those who are not (un)employed or with school age children...
		
Click to expand...

You may also question why we didnt have 500,000 deaths as predicted and the NHS  becoming overwhelmed  if we didnt do those things. Get some balance in your thinking man.


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## SocketRocket (Jul 24, 2020)

Crazyface said:



			Reading the stats this morning the current death rate is below the average for the time of year. Why are we wearing masks?
		
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Because the virus is still there and we dont want a second spike.


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## Swinglowandslow (Jul 24, 2020)

Crazyface said:



			Reading the stats this morning the current death rate is below the average for the time of year. Why are we wearing masks?
		
Click to expand...

Because recently the gov have advised/allowed that social distancing is lessened. Remember supermarkets with one way systems, only so many at a time, etc . No shops open (except food), etc
Now that we are nearer each other (for some little time), it is of benefit, to keep the R rate down , to wear masks. Some argue otherwise, but generally they prevent less breathing of each other's expelled breath.
"Every little helps"😀
And, of course, it is one of those situations where you cannot quantify how much they help, ( I.e prevented infection) , but that doesn't mean they do not.


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