User20204
Well-known member
The death toll or the economy ?
In the short term it has to be the death toll but long term ?
In the short term it has to be the death toll but long term ?
What's more important ?
- Thread starter User20204
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Reemul
Head Pro
I find it difficult that people would put having that new leased Car or foreign holiday or new iphone over not seeing their parents / grandparents / friends / family / golf buddies ever because they are dead.
It may mean for a few years we need to make do with what we have and cut our cloth accordingly.
In the long term we need to open up and get some form of normalcy back but not at the expense of those we love
It may mean for a few years we need to make do with what we have and cut our cloth accordingly.
In the long term we need to open up and get some form of normalcy back but not at the expense of those we love
fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
Long term it has to be a balance, simple as, its not 100% of either. Where and when the line in the middle is is much harder to define, thankfully we have some experts in various fields who will try and advise the best they can and provides a lot of data inputs to complex modelling. We have to hope their estimates and data they input is as accurate as can be, and that the models are effective and that they get close to the best result possible which will hopefully then be implemented by the government and adhered to by the public. Or..........
User20204
Well-known member
I'm not even referring to luxuries, one needs to have employment to be able to buy these.
Past June after the governments 80% payout, what then.
User20204
Well-known member
Didn't they say that 20,000 deaths was a hopeful limit, they are near that now
fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
they started at 500,000 didnt they and heard various numbers down from there. what alternatives do you have? what do you propose?
User20204
Well-known member
The 500,000 was if they did nothing from recollection, the 20k was an estimate with the action we are taking now.
I don't really propose anything, I'm trying to get long term opinions.
I don't really propose anything, I'm trying to get long term opinions.
Reemul
Head Pro
Unchecked and left alone it's probably 3% that's 2 million peole, there is around 500,000 in Dorset, it's like killng the whole county 4 times over.
When I was 35 my best friend and brother in law who was 34 died of cancer. He had 3 daughters aged 1, 3 and 6. Just that 1 person dying was a bloody hell for so many people for such a long time. His mum and dad have never got over it and the long lasting effect it has is pretty terrible. For his daughters Father's day, when they get married any significant thing int heir lives when he would have been there simmers slowly away.
I cannot imagine that times 1 million it's horrendous enough at 20 or 30 thousand. Until you have lived it, witnessed it and seem the long term effects you really shoudln't be hoping anyone dies because it is not something to have so we can have more cars, iphones, smart tv's, consoles or our 6th set of golf clubs in 6 years
When I was 35 my best friend and brother in law who was 34 died of cancer. He had 3 daughters aged 1, 3 and 6. Just that 1 person dying was a bloody hell for so many people for such a long time. His mum and dad have never got over it and the long lasting effect it has is pretty terrible. For his daughters Father's day, when they get married any significant thing int heir lives when he would have been there simmers slowly away.
I cannot imagine that times 1 million it's horrendous enough at 20 or 30 thousand. Until you have lived it, witnessed it and seem the long term effects you really shoudln't be hoping anyone dies because it is not something to have so we can have more cars, iphones, smart tv's, consoles or our 6th set of golf clubs in 6 years
fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
genuine answer is i dont think anyone knows the answer yet, keep modelling, keep improving the model and the data you are inputting, observe how other countries are doing well/badly, keep adjusting and stay flexible. do the best you can based on the data you have but be prepared to change course if the newer information is strong enough
Reemul
Head Pro
No you are not, i've been reading your posts over the last few weeks, as posted you believe the world is better off missing a few billion and as long as you are an all right charlie and it doesn't affect you, screw anyone else.
Long term effect my arse, you've already said it in another post, kill em all, it don't matter, my goodies matter more, worthless , the elderly and sick no worries if a few 100,000 younger and middle aged also get caught in it, we will cope.
User20204
Well-known member
You say that in a manner that no one else has lost someone close to them, I'd hazard a very good guess, every member of this forum has.
User20204
Well-known member
Are you on drugs ? seriously ?
Who said anything about cars or goodies, I'm referring to the state of the country afterwards.
Reemul
Head Pro
The way you are posting I very much doubt it, to quote, the world could do with a few billion less.
Those that have suffered will not be thinking like you in any way at all
fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
Sorry to hear Reemul, so sad
I lost a friend at school to cancer and not long after University it took my mother. I know the effect it had on me and wouldnt wish that on my worst enemy, let alone the majority of the population! Pretty sure a lot have similar tales to tell
Lets hope we get through this the best we can as a country/world, seems to be the best we can do in the current situation!
User20204
Well-known member
You're probably right, no one knows, just can't see how the economy can possibly be left to rot.
The pub industry for example, highly likely to be last to get back fully up and running, how many pubs will still be around to open when they do, it's mind blowing.
fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
Hospitality industry, tourism, travel all likely to be in big danger, massive knock on effects to village communities if they lose their pub/restaurant/hotel/focal point, add in the impact on property market, employment etc. Plenty of other industries too as many things we took for granted and as normalities before will be massively changed afterwards
But how many lives do you potentially risk to save some of these industries? Its as hard as a balance to strike and everyone and their dog has an opinion on what those in charge are doing wrong but have little idea what they would do differently and why
User20204
Well-known member
It's not just the job losses, the housing market for example. If hundreds of thousands, even millions lose their homes due to unemployment then the banking goes pop as well, it's almost hard to imagine what post covid could possibly be like.
backwoodsman
Tour Winner
As fundy says, it has to be a balance somewhere.
No, of course, we dont want tens of thousands of premature deaths caused by the virus but on the other hand, "the economy" is not just about having goodies and nice things. "The economy" is having a job & being able to feed & provide a home to your family, being able to keep them safe. It is the ability to generate enough money to fund a decent health care system, to be able to educate our children, and to look after our vulnerable. And so on. (Just think of what sort of hole we'd be in at the moment if we hadn't got a strong economy which allows us to have a robust NHS?)
The virus is causing premature deaths - but sadly, totally trashing the economy will do the same. Both will cause personal & family grief. The only difference is that one is immediately obvious whilst the other is more abstract. I'm only glad that I'm not someone who has to make decisions on where or how the balance could be achieved.
No, of course, we dont want tens of thousands of premature deaths caused by the virus but on the other hand, "the economy" is not just about having goodies and nice things. "The economy" is having a job & being able to feed & provide a home to your family, being able to keep them safe. It is the ability to generate enough money to fund a decent health care system, to be able to educate our children, and to look after our vulnerable. And so on. (Just think of what sort of hole we'd be in at the moment if we hadn't got a strong economy which allows us to have a robust NHS?)
The virus is causing premature deaths - but sadly, totally trashing the economy will do the same. Both will cause personal & family grief. The only difference is that one is immediately obvious whilst the other is more abstract. I'm only glad that I'm not someone who has to make decisions on where or how the balance could be achieved.
JustOne
Ryder Cup Winner
There are so many things to consider, both big and small, for example what if aviation disappears completely because we are not allowed to squash onto planes for the next 5yrs? what if restaurants face the same fate and it's takeaways only? Schools can't resume properly as classrooms are overcrowded and children have to go to school one day per week (eg Yr1 & 2 go on Mondays, Yr3 & 4 go on Tuesdays etc).... so many possible outcomes if it all 'goes bad'.
To answer your intital question for myself, the death toll is the most important if even ONE person that I love/like/know dies.
I'd rather eat rice for the rest of my life than lose someone close.
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Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
Most governments throughout the world are essentially making constant decisions over how many extra people do they feel is acceptable to die before we get a vaccine that works, to keep normal society functioning to some extent and them in an acceptable economic state both now and after the virus. And in some cases the calculation seems to be more around who they can blame and how they can turn this situation to their advantage so they can get elected again soon.
As we can see every country will have different priorities and place more weight on one outcome than another. And I suspect after this is all over it will become clear what those priorities were for various countries.
As we can see every country will have different priorities and place more weight on one outcome than another. And I suspect after this is all over it will become clear what those priorities were for various countries.
