Vaccines

[Ethan]

The immunity from vaccination may prevent disease and or , infection or rather unlikely it may make the disease worse we don't know.
We will not know until the results are published. At his press conference yesterday :
Professor Van-Tam said that it was not yet known whether the vaccine would prevent “asymptomatic infection”, the spread of the virus in people who do not show symptoms. “Therefore we do not know if these vaccines will prevent virus shedding, and therefore have an effect on community transmission,” he said.

Yeah, I heard him. Remember, he was delivering a semi-scientific, semi-political message that had been agreed upon.

This is not a conventional vaccine. It is extremely unlikely it will make the disease worse. It may or may not prevent infection in certain sub groups, or at least the studies may lack statistical power to allow a firm conclusion to be reached yet. The question of asymptotic infection is an interesting one, although the thinking is that the vacc will inhibit viral replication and therefore shedding.

Much of what you heard yesterday was "Stick to the regulations!. We aren't there yet", all expectation management. If people now go 'OK, it'll all work out and screw these lockdown rules', Christmas will be a disaster in the NHS.

Behind the scenes, people are doing cartwheels.

 

[Backache]

Yeah, I heard him. Remember, he was delivering a semi-scientific, semi-political message that had been agreed upon.

This is not a conventional vaccine. It is extremely unlikely it will make the disease worse. It may or may not prevent infection in certain sub groups, or at least the studies may lack statistical power to allow a firm conclusion to be reached yet. The question of asymptotic infection is an interesting one, although the thinking is that the vacc will inhibit viral replication and therefore shedding.

Much of what you heard yesterday was "Stick to the regulations!. We aren't there yet", all expectation management. If people now go 'OK, it'll all work out and screw these lockdown rules', Christmas will be a disaster in the NHS.

Behind the scenes, people are doing cartwheels.

I certainly agree it looks like good news , my main point though is that we simply do not know whether or not it will prevent asymptomatic infection and therefore viral shedding. In the animal studies of the Oxford vaccine it appeared to prevent replication in the lung and lung diseases but not replication in the nasopharynx. As far as I can see in the BionNtec it looked a bit more promising but viral rna was still recovered from the nasopharynx. Both studies only looked at very small numbers of animals and how this will translate into humans is not known.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

I certainly agree it looks like good news , my main point though is that we simply do not know whether or not it will prevent asymptomatic infection and therefore viral shedding. In the animal studies of the Oxford vaccine it appeared to prevent replication in the lung and lung diseases but not replication in the nasopharynx. As far as I can see in the BionNtec it looked a bit more promising but viral rna was still recovered from the nasopharynx. Both studies only looked at very small numbers of animals and how this will translate into humans is not known.

I read about that on the medical studies, think I posted up the links to the medical papers at the time but there wasn't much comment , as I wondered at the time, if this was normal or not(maybe as they viral load up them massively or maybe that it doesn't always translate to humans)

Lets hope that the vaccines are successful/safe. As wherever you sit, it appears to be the only way we will open up again here and also get the NHS fully working again and protect people.

Best bit of positive news I have read since this all started last year. Roll on details of the next vaccines and when the studies are published.

 

[Mandofred]

As with everything else...hope for the best, plan for the worst.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

Yeah, I heard him. Remember, he was delivering a semi-scientific, semi-political message that had been agreed upon.

This is not a conventional vaccine. It is extremely unlikely it will make the disease worse. It may or may not prevent infection in certain sub groups, or at least the studies may lack statistical power to allow a firm conclusion to be reached yet. The question of asymptotic infection is an interesting one, although the thinking is that the vacc will inhibit viral replication and therefore shedding.

Much of what you heard yesterday was "Stick to the regulations!. We aren't there yet", all expectation management. If people now go 'OK, it'll all work out and screw these lockdown rules', Christmas will be a disaster in the NHS.

Behind the scenes, people are doing cartwheels.

Brilliantly put.
This (correct) reasoning is an example of why sometimes the government need to be "economical with the actualite

 

[Ethan]

I read about that on the medical studies, think I posted up the links to the medical papers at the time but there wasn't much comment , as I wondered at the time, if this was normal or not(maybe as they viral load up them massively or maybe that it doesn't always translate to humans)

Lets hope that the vaccines are successful/safe. As wherever you sit, it appears to be the only way we will open up again here and also get the NHS fully working again and protect people.

Best bit of positive news I have read since this all started last year. Roll on details of the next vaccines and when the studies are published.

It is an unresolved question, although I think most people in the space think that the risk of transmission must be rescued at least. In any case, I am not sure it would really change the strategy because it will still be necessary to maintain social distancing and shielding until well down the line with pretty high levels of immunisation/immunity.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Lots of words of caution about the 'Pfizer' vaccine being expressed this morning by the Health Secretary - as there was last night by the PM. Setting expectations very much lower than otherwise might be the case and the press might set as the risk of folks relaxing now, and thinking all sorted - back to normal...

Good thing about that is that with our expectations set low they can only really be exceeded. Which would make a change.

 

[Tashyboy]

Adverse reactions occur in all trials. Sometimes they are unrelated to the study drug, sometimes they are, and if so, they can stop the trial until investigated. There was a case of transverse myelitis reported in the Oxford/AZ trial. Reading press reports, it appears that this was in a patient who had developed MS, and transverse myelitis is a common presenting feature. There was also a death, and press reports suggest that the person was on placebo, so clearly nothing to do with the vacc. There are certain adverse events that are characteristic of the mode of action of the drug, sometimes this has been suggested in lab or animal tests, for example effects on the liver, or possible interaction with other medicines. These would be very uncommon in vaccines.

Adverse reactions are classified into mild, moderate and severe, as well as serious or non-serious. Certain levels trigger an immediate report to the regulator who can impose a halt to the trial, although the company will usually have already done that. I have worked on drugs where a halt was called for an adverse event and it lasted 6 months before an expert group decided that the event was not what it first appeared to be and was unrelated to the drug. I knew that at the start, but you have to go through the process. It nearly killed our company, though.

cheers me man. ?

 

[Rooter]

Lots of words of caution about the 'Pfizer' vaccine being expressed this morning by the Health Secretary - as there was last night by the PM. Setting expectations very much lower than otherwise might be the case and the press might set as the risk of folks relaxing now, and thinking all sorted - back to normal...

Good thing about that is that with our expectations set low they can only really be exceeded. Which would make a change.

I think it was Ethan said, the gov has to deliver a cautious view of low expectations, otherwise the masses will say 'screw this lockdown and rules, we have a vaccine coming!' with no long term view on whether:

A. It will work
B. How quickly it can be rolled out
C. Will it cover everyone

Either way, it's not a short-term solution (ie next 3 months minimum) and the NHS would implode if the nation said screw it now and you could forget any chances of an Xmas resembling anything other than dinner for 2...

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I think it was Ethan said, the gov has to deliver a cautious view of low expectations, otherwise the masses will say 'screw this lockdown and rules, we have a vaccine coming!' with no long term view on whether:

A. It will work
B. How quickly it can be rolled out
C. Will it cover everyone

Either way, it's not a short-term solution (ie next 3 months minimum) and the NHS would implode if the nation said screw it now and you could forget any chances of an Xmas resembling anything other than dinner for 2...

Absolutely - and to be honest even if things turn out for the very best with this vaccine I have no idea about how long it will be from now before I have an appointment to get my first vaccination. But if I was to guess (and I most certainly wouldn't bet very much at all on this guess) I'd be thinking 6months best - and that only as I am one of those oldies past the 6-0.

 

[Ethan]

Absolutely - and to be honest even if things turn out for the very best with this vaccine I have no idea about how long it will be from now before I have an appointment to get my first vaccination. But if I was to guess (and I most certainly wouldn't bet very much at all on this guess) I'd be thinking 6months best - and that only as I am one of those oldies past the 6-0.

Most of us will see 2 more Masters before we get the invite.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Most of us will see 2 more Masters before we get the invite.

So the coming one plus next one will see most of us in April-May...? Well if Ethan thinks 6 months then maybe my guess was not too random

Unless that's May 2022

 

[larmen]

Most of us will see 2 more Masters before we get the invite.

If Bryson wins this one no one will watch the next one ;-)

Seriously, are you talking original date for number 2 or are you hinting at a year from now?

 

[Ethan]

If Bryson wins this one no one will watch the next one ;-)

Seriously, are you talking original date for number 2 or are you hinting at a year from now?

I mean Easter or after, but it will take time to roll out.

 

[Mandofred]

Absolutely - and to be honest even if things turn out for the very best with this vaccine I have no idea about how long it will be from now before I have an appointment to get my first vaccination. But if I was to guess (and I most certainly wouldn't bet very much at all on this guess) I'd be thinking 6months best - and that only as I am one of those oldies past the 6-0.

Good.....I might get something for being older.

 

[Bigfoot]

It's good to hear that there is a vaccine but I see the biggest problem with it is that needs be stored below -80 deg C.

Is that for the original vaccine before knocking down into doses?

So, how quickly does it degrade or lose efficiency above that temperature?
They will need liquid nitrogen or similar to allow storage and that means specialist engineering.
How will it be delivered?

 

[clubchamp98]

It's good to hear that there is a vaccine but I see the biggest problem with it is that needs be stored below -80 deg C.

Is that for the original vaccine before knocking down into doses?

So, how quickly does it degrade or lose efficiency above that temperature?
They will need liquid nitrogen or similar to allow storage and that means specialist engineering.
How will it be delivered?

Was thinking this myself.
My wife takes a auto immune drug kept cold in the fridge but let’s it warm at room temp for 15 mins.
She still winces at the cold when she injects it.
You can’t put anything at -80 into your body.
They must have a delivery system.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Cold chain will be overcome, they had to do it with ebola vaccines(first article discusses at a fairly easy to understand level, ) :-

https://www.wired.com/story/the-wild-logistical-ride-of-the-ebola-vaccines-high-tech-thermos/#:~:text=Point is, all signs indicate,degrees F, you barbarians).

https://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/ebola/gevit_guidance_may2016.pdf?ua=1