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Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Billysboots said:
Indeed. Although I suspect that is perhaps aimed at those wanting to engage in professional debate, not a bunch of lay people on a golf forum.
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Depends how 'committed' to getting 'the real story' the recipient of the info is, as opposed to having their own 'bias' confirmed!
Just realise that the numbers chosen for those article(s) were almost certainly 'worst case' ones.
 
Just read this on the Sky news channel.

17,269 new Omicron cases reported across England and Northern Ireland
Of these, 16,133 were reported in England and 1,136 in Northern Ireland.
The number of deaths in England of people with the Omicron variant has risen to 49, according to the UKHSA.
Hospital admissions in England for people with confirmed or suspected Omicron rose to 668.
Wales has not reported figures yet due to the festive period, while Scotland is no longer separating Omicron cases from other variants in its daily reports.
We'll be expecting more data on the total number of cases confirmed (including other variants) later this afternoon.



Now there’s loads I could ask but if 17,269 cases yesterday were Omicron. That means around 80,000 were Delta? Yet Delta is more serious and we’re talking about relaxing things because Omicron is not as bad. But 668 were admitted to hospital with Omicron. me head is flippin spinning.
 
Tashyboy said:
Just read this on the Sky news channel.

17,269 new Omicron cases reported across England and Northern Ireland
Of these, 16,133 were reported in England and 1,136 in Northern Ireland.
The number of deaths in England of people with the Omicron variant has risen to 49, according to the UKHSA.
Hospital admissions in England for people with confirmed or suspected Omicron rose to 668.
Wales has not reported figures yet due to the festive period, while Scotland is no longer separating Omicron cases from other variants in its daily reports.
We'll be expecting more data on the total number of cases confirmed (including other variants) later this afternoon.



Now there’s loads I could ask but if 17,269 cases yesterday were Omicron. That means around 80,000 were Delta? Yet Delta is more serious and we’re talking about relaxing things because Omicron is not as bad. But 668 were admitted to hospital with Omicron. me head is flippin spinning.
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Or xxxx were delta and yyyy were undetermined/yet to be determined
 
IainP said:
Or xxxx were delta and yyyy were undetermined/yet to be determined
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? Missis T has just had a read re how your Omicron is diagnosed from your PCR. Bottom line it can take 4-5 days depending on where/ which site your test is sent to.
 
Old Skier said:
Anyone can come up with a scenario based on what they believe. No facts required.

Some even predict the world ending in 7 days.
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Come on, let's have some sense. What are you arguing about?

Scenarios can be based on facts or prophesies or imaginings, surely?

Just saying this or that is a scenario , doesn't mean it can only be one of those things, depending on your outlook.

A scientist says his is based on facts. A Bookie says his is based on odds.

A scenario,aka a projection, can be made on any of those things. Doesn't necessarily mean any of them are going to be accurate?
 
Foxholer said:
Here's their own statement about their role.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/its-not-true-covid-19-modellers-look-only-at-worst-outcomes

I'd suggest it's 'news' media who select the model that fits best with the pov they are producing.

Edit: Here's a paragraph from the above article that's pretty relevant...
'Equally, those who want to engage seriously with a debate that affects us all need to consider all the data in the round, not only those parts that fit an argument while ignoring the rest. That is not science, even though it might sometimes make an entertaining read.'
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whilst it says that they do not only look at worst outcomes this Twitter discussion with the chairman of SAGE makes it pretty clear that they only model the bad outcomes because no extra restrictions are required for a “good” outcome…
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...hairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee
 
Swinglowandslow said:
Come on, let's have some sense. What are you arguing about?

Scenarios can be based on facts or prophesies or imaginings, surely?

Just saying this or that is a scenario , doesn't mean it can only be one of those things, depending on your outlook.

A scientist says his is based on facts. A Bookie says his is based on odds.

A scenario,aka a projection, can be made on any of those things. Doesn't necessarily mean any of them are going to be accurate?
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Which was my point earlier on. Posters getting knocked because they didn’t accept a scenario.
 
Tashyboy said:
Just read this on the Sky news channel.

17,269 new Omicron cases reported across England and Northern Ireland
Of these, 16,133 were reported in England and 1,136 in Northern Ireland.
The number of deaths in England of people with the Omicron variant has risen to 49, according to the UKHSA.
Hospital admissions in England for people with confirmed or suspected Omicron rose to 668.
Wales has not reported figures yet due to the festive period, while Scotland is no longer separating Omicron cases from other variants in its daily reports.
We'll be expecting more data on the total number of cases confirmed (including other variants) later this afternoon.



Now there’s loads I could ask but if 17,269 cases yesterday were Omicron. That means around 80,000 were Delta? Yet Delta is more serious and we’re talking about relaxing things because Omicron is not as bad. But 668 were admitted to hospital with Omicron. me head is flippin spinning.
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Tashy,

You/they've made the same blunder I did some time back!

The 16,133 is the INCREASE over yesterday's figures!
So confirmed Omicron cases for the period were 159,204
 
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Tashyboy said:
Just read this on the Sky news channel.

17,269 new Omicron cases reported across England and Northern Ireland
Of these, 16,133 were reported in England and 1,136 in Northern Ireland.
The number of deaths in England of people with the Omicron variant has risen to 49, according to the UKHSA.
Hospital admissions in England for people with confirmed or suspected Omicron rose to 668.
Wales has not reported figures yet due to the festive period, while Scotland is no longer separating Omicron cases from other variants in its daily reports.
We'll be expecting more data on the total number of cases confirmed (including other variants) later this afternoon.



Now there’s loads I could ask but if 17,269 cases yesterday were Omicron. That means around 80,000 were Delta? Yet Delta is more serious and we’re talking about relaxing things because Omicron is not as bad. But 668 were admitted to hospital with Omicron. me head is flippin spinning.
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Tashy, one thing to consider as always with these numbers is that because someone in in hospital "with" covid doesn't mean they're in hospital "because" of it.... They could have broken a toe playing football and then end up being a covid stat.
 
PhilTheFragger said:
Foxy, you do realise this admission tarnishes your role as Forum Pedant ?
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Happy to correct my own blunders.

Though there could be a 'correction to the blunder correction'. :eek:

Nope! Just seen UK numbers on Worldometer...129K cases today 18 deaths. Obviously numbers aren't 'co-ordinated/equalised' but that indicates most, if not nearly all, will be Omicron. No way could ICUs handle the numbers recently if most were Delta. My local hospital, part of a 2 hospital trust has 9 ICU beds normally. Though no doubt there's been some adjustments made.
 
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adam6177 said:
Tashy, one thing to consider as always with these numbers is that because someone in in hospital "with" covid doesn't mean they're in hospital "because" of it.... They could have broken a toe playing football and then end up being a covid stat.
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Funnily enough there was a guy representing hospital trusts on the news this morning pointing this out. One chief exec he had spoken to the day before had said the majority of covid cases in his hospital were people in for other things who had tested positive when checked. No symptoms of covid, but obviously carrying it. They add in to the stats but are not in danger from covid.
 
Fade and Die said:
I find I agree 100% with this Spiked article, especially the line

“In the absence of hard data, the experts have turned to models to make their case for lockdown, It has long been clear that these models are less than worthless. No one can seriously believe SAGE’s warning from earlier this week that without new restrictions we are heading towards 6,000 Covid deaths per day.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/12/20/we-cannot-let-them-lock-us-down-again/
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I am assuming that that number is in the context of the ‘reasonable worse case scenario’ - in which case it is simply provided to the government in order for them to understand what they may have to mitigate against happening in the worse case.

The government has then to balance the actions that would be required to mitigate that risk against the impact the actions would have on the economy and softer (mental) public health issues…and as it is the RWCS estimate it is likely that they will choose to not go that far.

But I would not be drawing from the modelling that without new restrictions we would be heading for ~6000 deaths per day - that is not what the modelling estimates for anything other than the RWCS - and even for that we are not given the level of uncertainty around that RWCS estimate - and that could be very wide.
 
Lord Tyrion said:
Funnily enough there was a guy representing hospital trusts on the news this morning pointing this out. One chief exec he had spoken to the day before had said the majority of covid cases in his hospital were people in for other things who had tested positive when checked. No symptoms of covid, but obviously carrying it. They add in to the stats but are not in danger from covid.
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Exactly, and the reason I don't get sucked in by the sensationalist headlines with breaking news flashing around them at this time of day.... I can't imagine the amount of poor people frightened to death with mental health issues and the added impact this kind of reporting has had on them.
 
Fade and Die said:
whilst it says that they do not only look at worst outcomes this Twitter discussion with the chairman of SAGE makes it pretty clear that they only model the bad outcomes because no extra restrictions are required for a “good” outcome…
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...hairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee
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They also only model what they are asked to I.E. whatever suits the agenda of the day be it positive vibes or let’s lock everyone down type things.
 
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