Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Deleted member 16999]

That is false and dangerous nonsense written (not by you, obvs) by someone who is either knowingly lying or utterly clueless about death certification. It is not NHS data, it is data wrongly interpreted from CDC data in the US and circulated by Covid deniers. Please don't circulate this [redacted].

The national figures for Covid deaths are done in a couple of ways. Initial figures are based on those who test positive and die within 28 days. it is true that many of those people have undelying conditions, but they are things like high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma etc, and the probability that they will die of one of those in the next 28 days is vanishingly small, for practical purposes, zero. It might surprise you that the actuarial probability that an average 80 year old will die in the next 28 days is less than 1%.

Data is gathered this way because even if imperfect, it is consistent and therefore temporal trends can be tracked. If the definition of a related death changed, the data would become useless. In all likelihood, it is actually an underestimate because the number of people misclassified as dying of Covid when they didn't is almost certainly outweighed by the number who actually die from Covid after 28 days, e.g. after a lengthy ICU stay, or were never tested.

On the death certificate, Covid may be mentioned if part of the cause of death. If that death was due to the oft-cited hit by a bus, it won't be mentioned at all. If death is due to an inflammatory complication of Covid, it will, regardless of whether it is within 28 days or not.

If you had previous high blood pressure and then had a heart attack and died, did you die from a heart attack or high blood pressure? On the UK death certificate, heart attack (aka myocardial infarction) would be listed a a primary cause of death, and high blood pressure may be listed as a subsidiary cause, i.e it contributed to the chance of having a myocardial infarction.

And if you died from cancer because your treatment was interrupted because of Covid pressures, what is your cause of death?

It is patently ridiculous for anyone to suggest that there are only a few Covid deaths and the rest is just the usual normal stuff. The queue of ambulances, packed hospitals and broken front line staff will tell anyone who is not a Covid denier otherwise.

Sorry Ethan, but why do the NHS publish this weekly figure then?
This is the NHS England Official site giving this information out.
Yes, the interpratation can be lost or confusing but these are the figures the NHS is providing.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...nced-deaths-24-December-2020-weekly-file.xlsx

 

[DanFST]

That is false and dangerous nonsense written (not by you, obvs) by someone who is either knowingly lying or utterly clueless about death certification. It is not NHS data, it is data wrongly interpreted from CDC data in the US and circulated by Covid deniers. Please don't circulate this [redacted].

The national figures for Covid deaths are done in a couple of ways. Initial figures are based on those who test positive and die within 28 days. it is true that many of those people have undelying conditions, but they are things like high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma etc, and the probability that they will die of one of those in the next 28 days is vanishingly small, for practical purposes, zero. It might surprise you that the actuarial probability that an average 80 year old will die in the next 28 days is less than 1%.

Data is gathered this way because even if imperfect, it is consistent and therefore temporal trends can be tracked. If the definition of a related death changed, the data would become useless. In all likelihood, it is actually an underestimate because the number of people misclassified as dying of Covid when they didn't is almost certainly outweighed by the number who actually die from Covid after 28 days, e.g. after a lengthy ICU stay, or were never tested.

On the death certificate, Covid may be mentioned if part of the cause of death. If that death was due to the oft-cited hit by a bus, it won't be mentioned at all. If death is due to an inflammatory complication of Covid, it will, regardless of whether it is within 28 days or not.

If you had previous high blood pressure and then had a heart attack and died, did you die from a heart attack or high blood pressure? On the UK death certificate, heart attack (aka myocardial infarction) would be listed a a primary cause of death, and high blood pressure may be listed as a subsidiary cause, i.e it contributed to the chance of having a myocardial infarction.

And if you died from cancer because your treatment was interrupted because of Covid pressures, what is your cause of death?

It is patently ridiculous for anyone to suggest that there are only a few Covid deaths and the rest is just the usual normal stuff. The queue of ambulances, packed hospitals and broken front line staff will tell anyone who is not a Covid denier otherwise.

Are the actual death numbers correct? ie <300 under 40's?

 

[BubbaP]

I read elsewhere, that only 388 people have died in the UK (or maybe England) from Covid, i.e. they had no underlying health conditions. All other (c. 70,000) deaths were due to other pre- existing medical conditions, compounded by Covid, or where they died from the condition but had tested positive for Covid. If that is correct, and I can't confirm that, it does add some perspective.

I am in no way playing down the severity of the pandemic, or advocating that the restrictions are unnecessary, but I was staggered by that number, apparently from NHS data. Has anyone else seen it? That might explain why so many seem unwilling to adhere to the guidance as they do not feel they are at (serious) risk.

You've triggered a few replies already.
It may be tricky with all the stats, I still think the 3rd statistic here is a key one.
https://forums.golf-monthly.co.uk/t...is-it-has-it-affected-you.104530/post-2277672
In early Jan when next released I'm expecting more of the same ?

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Sorry Ethan, but why do the NHS publish this weekly figure then?
This is the NHS England Official site giving this information out.
Yes, the interpratation can be lost or confusing but these are the figures the NHS is providing.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...nced-deaths-24-December-2020-weekly-file.xlsx

It only includes those that die in hospitals. But at a guess for the younger people(say under 40), probably most would die in hospital if they caught the virus and needed help ?

 

[BubbaP]

Sorry Ethan, but why do the NHS publish this weekly figure then?
This is the NHS England Official site giving this information out.
Yes, the interpratation can be lost or confusing but these are the figures the NHS is providing.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...nced-deaths-24-December-2020-weekly-file.xlsx

I agree about the XLS, but the original post was suggesting 388 from circa 70,000.
The XLS doesn't say that, does it?

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Been looking for a very long term population growth adjusted excess death chart, just for comparison and of course will show figures that reflect the actions we take with regards to the virus, but was a little bit taken back (not checked the figures/data for the make up of it) :-



Far to depressing to look at deaths tbh and doesn't tell the full story of course. But excess deaths will measure deaths from the virus, lockdown and collateral damage from the policies we are pursuing.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

I agree about the XLS, but the original post was suggesting 388 from circa 70,000.
The XLS doesn't say that, does it?

The XLS is NHS England only, Steve did say he was unsure whether it was out of 70,000 or just England.

 

[Ethan]

Sorry Ethan, but why do the NHS publish this weekly figure then?
This is the NHS England Official site giving this information out.
Yes, the interpratation can be lost or confusing but these are the figures the NHS is providing.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...nced-deaths-24-December-2020-weekly-file.xlsx

My response was mainly to the suggestion that only a small fraction of reported deaths were actually due to Covid, and that the rest were due to other underlying illnesses and Covid was an innocent bystander. That arose from a faulty interpretation of US CDC data bt has been carried over the pond to here too.

The weekly death rates are to track the general course. Even if the definition was slightly off, it is consistent and objective and can be used to observe the trend.

 

[BubbaP]

The XLS is NHS England only, Steve did say he was unsure whether it was out of 70,000 or just England.

Yes I know the XLS is NHS England, not that was what was asked.
Do you agree with the 388 figure?

Or might that be circa 80% inaccurate?

 

[Mudball]

Was speaking to a GP friend (he and family have recovered) about stories from the frontline ... he says that the situation was fairly grim. Some bits that I paraphrase... final year post grad students being drafted in to help as there is a shortage/burnout of frontline staff. Talks about potential shortage of oxygen supplies as it is being consumed quickly. Storage challenges with the current vaccine and hence all looking to AZ/Oxford to be rolled out. Expecting another wave mid Jan as the impact of Christmas and school reopening will start showing up. Pretty much write off 21 Q1 if not till summer 21.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Yes I know the XLS is NHS England, not that was what was asked.
Do you agree with the 388 figure?

Or might that be circa 80% inaccurate?

Sorry you’ve genuinely lost me, all the deaths are a tragedy and I am as far removed from being a covid denier that there is. I never used the 70,000 figure and explained it was Steve.

Why would anyone disagree with that figure? Surely it’s accurate if NHS England are publishing it.

The only issue I have with the figure is the idiots using it to somehow undermine what we are up against as I have heard some say that they disagree with being locked up as the chances of ”them” dying from catching Covid is a lot less than other risks they face everyday.

What they seem to forget though that the battle is not with them, it’s with all of us.

 

[Ethan]

Sorry you’ve genuinely lost me, all the deaths are a tragedy and I am as far removed from being a covid denier that there is. I never used the 70,000 figure and explained it was Steve.

Why would anyone disagree with that figure? Surely it’s accurate if NHS England are publishing it.

The only issue I have with the figure is the idiots using it to somehow undermine what we are up against as I have heard some say that they disagree with being locked up as the chances of ”them” dying from catching Covid is a lot less than other risks they face everyday.

What they seem to forget though that the battle is not with them, it’s with all of us.

It is clear there is a very significant correlation between age and risk of death, so the figures are not hard to believe. Most of the dead are older, but the death rate is not to be take lightly in middle age - I am in that group and I certainly don't. The young, though, although very unlikely to die, seem to be more likely to get long Covid, and some of those who survive have had unpleasant hospital stays and stormy courses, and possibly are storing up organ damage which will revisit them in the medium term. I predict an increase in cases of kidney and liver failure and a variety of other unpleasant health outcomes.

 

[Bunkermagnet]

Unless I've missed it, no-one has made mention of the 4 year prison sentence handed out to the Chinese reporter who went to Wuhan back in Jan/Feb to report on what was going on there.
One of my brothers is teaching in China, and he says it's now like there was no virus or anything like it. There definately is no reporting of anything about it anyway. Having said that, he says his flight back over to there back in August was like nothing we do. Temperature checks at the airport, mask mandatory on the whole journey, air crew in NBC type suits, no food or drink, landing in Beijing all staff in NBC suits, physical escort to the hotel room he was to be staying in for 2 weeks at his expense with guards outside each door. It's probably fair to say they were taking it a lot more serious than we have done.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

It is clear there is a very significant correlation between age and risk of death, so the figures are not hard to believe. Most of the dead are older, but the death rate is not to be take lightly in middle age - I am in that group and I certainly don't. The young, though, although very unlikely to die, seem to be more likely to get long Covid, and some of those who survive have had unpleasant hospital stays and stormy courses, and possibly are storing up organ damage which will revisit them in the medium term. I predict an increase in cases of kidney and liver failure and a variety of other unpleasant health outcomes.

Totally understand that, I’m only a couple of years away from 60.

But sadly we need the debate/discussions to involve all elements of society so the truth can get out there and the rubbish destroyed and dismissed.

 

[Reemul]

I think another issue is what some people think an underlying health issue is. They don't seem to realise how many millions have High Blood Pressure, Asthma, Obesity, roughly around 15 million of them. You can't isolate 15 million people no matter how hard you try.

Then add in the negative effect it has on the NHS and you get even more people dying of cancer, heart attacks and strokes because they cannot get treated quickly enough.

Then we can add on the people who are not well, that cannot get treatment and that make their lives miserable, like having cataracts removed or hip and knee replacements so they can't go fishing, play golf or even for a drive to the shops.

It really makes my blood boil when you see these people disregarding the above just because they cannot go drinking or partying.

Very sad times and for those of us that are not affected by any of the above we should be thankful.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Eran Segal on Twitter: "Israel vaccination update: ~500,000 vaccinated (&gt;5% of pop) ~25% of all 60+ years old vaccinated We estimate that in a week we will see a lower percent of 60+ years old out of the critically ill, going from ~70% now to ~20% by mid-January Hope this forecast will come true https://t.co/6lJKD1uEu5" / Twitter

Israel, cracking on. already done 25% of 60 years old plus. Wow.

 

[backwoodsman]

Eran Segal on Twitter: "Israel vaccination update: ~500,000 vaccinated (&gt;5% of pop) ~25% of all 60+ years old vaccinated We estimate that in a week we will see a lower percent of 60+ years old out of the critically ill, going from ~70% now to ~20% by mid-January Hope this forecast will come true https://t.co/6lJKD1uEu5" / Twitter

Israel, cracking on. already done 25% of 60 years old plus. Wow.

Good effort on their part. But they are, of course, dealing with a rather smaller population than most western european countries

 

[bobmac]

Eran Segal on Twitter: "Israel vaccination update: ~500,000 vaccinated (&gt;5% of pop) ~25% of all 60+ years old vaccinated We estimate that in a week we will see a lower percent of 60+ years old out of the critically ill, going from ~70% now to ~20% by mid-January Hope this forecast will come true https://t.co/6lJKD1uEu5" / Twitter

Israel, cracking on. already done 25% of 60 years old plus. Wow.

I wonder how many people in the UK have had the vaccine?
Latest figure I could find was 616,933 up to Dec 20th
Does anyone know any more updates?

 

[triple_bogey]

Unless I've missed it, no-one has made mention of the 4 year prison sentence handed out to the Chinese reporter who went to Wuhan back in Jan/Feb to report on what was going on there.
One of my brothers is teaching in China, and he says it's now like there was no virus or anything like it. There definately is no reporting of anything about it anyway. Having said that, he says his flight back over to there back in August was like nothing we do. Temperature checks at the airport, mask mandatory on the whole journey, air crew in NBC type suits, no food or drink, landing in Beijing all staff in NBC suits, physical escort to the hotel room he was to be staying in for 2 weeks at his expense with guards outside each door. It's probably fair to say they were taking it a lot more serious than we have done.

I've read snippets. It seems she was just a normal citizen making vids and acting as a serious journalist. There's a video floating about, with the lady causing trouble at a testing station. Trying to break down the lockdown barriers and trying to free people in quarantine.

I've spoken to former colleagues and they echo the exact same as what you're brother is describing. Even when they only find 1 case, the whole area goes into mass testing.

You only need to watch a few Youtubers like British father/son combo the ''Barretts'' or ''Living in China''(Sheffield lad) to see that normal life has resumed there. And stop listening to others that never have stepped foot in the country and believe anything the MSM writes.

I see this new UK mutated strain of Covid is starting to appear worldwide now. ''facepalm''.

 

[SteveJay]

My response was mainly to the suggestion that only a small fraction of reported deaths were actually due to Covid, and that the rest were due to other underlying illnesses and Covid was an innocent bystander.

That isn't what I said or suggested.

I didn't say Covid was "an innocent bystander," I said most deaths must be where Covid had compounded a pre-existing condition, in the same way as your earlier analogy of someone with high blood pressure who suffers from a heart attack. It seems that this data indicates that hardly any deaths occur in otherwise healthy younger individuals with no existing medical condition. All I was pointing out was that is a message I had not seen previously.

Will reiterate I am not one of the conspiracy theorists or rule breakers. I adhere to the rules and have taken part in a Covid vaccine trial and, if I had the placebo rather than the vaccine, I will be taking up the vaccine at the earliest opportunity.