Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[The Dog.]

The recent study into the decoupling of cases and hospitalisations / deaths by Professor Philip Thomas at Bristol university is well worth a read. Link here - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-third-wave-its-here-but-it-shouldnt-delay-our-reopening

If it is behind a paywall then here is a quote to give an overview:

Philip Thomas, professor of risk management at Bristol university, attempted to unpick how damaging this wave of the virus would be, with or without a delay to the restrictions. His argument, based on a model which has been successfully tracking the pandemic in Britain, is that cases and hospitalisations and deaths are now very seriously de-coupled, and this should have prevented the NHS from collapsing. He predicted that if restrictions were lifted:

“‘We ought to brace ourselves for a surge of infections, one that has started already and may be greater than the wave seen in January. But crucially, the NHS should not come close to being overwhelmed. Cases will be mainly among the young, who are far less likely to get seriously sick — so daily deaths will run at a quarter of what they once did, before subsiding. There is no point delaying reopening, because a landmark has been reached: Covid-19 has been downgraded into a nasty bug which is now no more lethal than viruses such as influenza. My model points to about 7,000 more deaths to come. A daunting figure, yes, but about a third less than in a typical flu season.’​

And he pointed to the lack of hospitalisations in Bolton – which was the first area to be seriously hit by the Indian variant – as proof that now a huge proportion of people have been vaccinated, the rest of the country can cope with a greater number of cases:

“‘Take Bolton. Its third wave, which happened last month, saw the number of confirmed Covid cases surge back to where it was in January. But crucially, teenagers and children accounted for about half of these infections. The over-sixties (those most likely to get ill) accounted for just 3.5 per cent of them. It is too early to speak with any finality about deaths from Bolton’s third wave, but the number of Covid patients in hospital did not get above a third of the January peak. So Bolton offers a useful guide to what we can expect in Britain’s third wave: a significant number of cases, but mainly among the young, who mostly will emerge unscathed.’​

 

[Deleted member 15344]

How many times are we going to have to wait another 4 weeks?

There is nothing quite so permanent as a Government temporary measure!

We go on holiday in the UK every year, it's not the same as a decent holiday abroad.

My main concern is the health and well-being of the younger generations. My football club has lost a couple of teams due to losing players that didn't come back after lockdown. This is the same for a lot of our local team too.
And then there is the impact on the quality of education many children have received. Which appears to be having a greater impact on the less well off and more vulnerable children.

Graduates and apprentices are suffering from a lack of opportunity and training in the workplace.

But I suspect many of these issues are of little concern to many on here.

It will take as many four weeks as needed to ensure we have beaten the virus as best as we can - we need to learn from mistake made previously- it’s better to be cautious than rash and risk losing more lives -which is more important - it’s been 6 months or more for some - 4 weeks more might well be worth it as opposed to another lockdown later

In regards Social Distancing and Masks - they are i believe seperate to the current restrictions so weren’t going to change anyway

Being open doesn't mean making a profit. Being open doesn't mean even breaking even. It doesn't pay back the loans they have had to take out to keep afloat. That is a really poor statement and unfeeling for those in those circumstances.

And is their not financial help for those business available right now. This virus is still going on , people are still suffering because of the virus

Everyone is making sacrifices for the greater good - we nearly there it all away last year - let’s not do the same again

 

[bobmac]

Infections...the graph I saw showed that a levelling off of infections is what is being sought by an extension. And it is that that I don’t see how a continuation of current measures will provide, unless the hope is that increased level of vaccination across us all will just in itself level off the spread of the delta variant in particular.

You clearly said
''the current daily increase in infections''

I was pointing out the current daily number of infections has in fact decreased over the last 3 days and it is my hope that the 8,125 was the peak of what's being dubbed as the 'third wave' and if the majority of those cases aren't hospitalised then that's good news, wouldn't you agree?

 

[Ethan]

The recent study into the decoupling of cases and hospitalisations / deaths by Professor Philip Thomas at Bristol university is well worth a read. Link here - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-third-wave-its-here-but-it-shouldnt-delay-our-reopening

If it is behind a paywall then here is a quote to give an overview:

Philip Thomas, professor of risk management at Bristol university, attempted to unpick how damaging this wave of the virus would be, with or without a delay to the restrictions. His argument, based on a model which has been successfully tracking the pandemic in Britain, is that cases and hospitalisations and deaths are now very seriously de-coupled, and this should have prevented the NHS from collapsing. He predicted that if restrictions were lifted:

“‘We ought to brace ourselves for a surge of infections, one that has started already and may be greater than the wave seen in January. But crucially, the NHS should not come close to being overwhelmed. Cases will be mainly among the young, who are far less likely to get seriously sick — so daily deaths will run at a quarter of what they once did, before subsiding. There is no point delaying reopening, because a landmark has been reached: Covid-19 has been downgraded into a nasty bug which is now no more lethal than viruses such as influenza. My model points to about 7,000 more deaths to come. A daunting figure, yes, but about a third less than in a typical flu season.’​

And he pointed to the lack of hospitalisations in Bolton – which was the first area to be seriously hit by the Indian variant – as proof that now a huge proportion of people have been vaccinated, the rest of the country can cope with a greater number of cases:

“‘Take Bolton. Its third wave, which happened last month, saw the number of confirmed Covid cases surge back to where it was in January. But crucially, teenagers and children accounted for about half of these infections. The over-sixties (those most likely to get ill) accounted for just 3.5 per cent of them. It is too early to speak with any finality about deaths from Bolton’s third wave, but the number of Covid patients in hospital did not get above a third of the January peak. So Bolton offers a useful guide to what we can expect in Britain’s third wave: a significant number of cases, but mainly among the young, who mostly will emerge unscathed.’​

Flu, flu, flu, and counting only deaths - the hallmarks of the Covid-denier. This guy is in the Civil Engineering Dept - he should go and build a bridge instead.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

And is their not financial help for those business available right now. This virus is still going on , people are still suffering because of the virus

Everyone is making sacrifices for the greater good - we nearly there it all away last year - let’s not do the same again

Loans, more loans? Why not bury perfectly good companies under a mountain of debt. They are not being given money, they will have to pay it back at some point. They were given small grants at one point but that money will be long gone.

Everyone is making sacrifices, blimey that is right. Pubs, restaurants, cafes, theatres, music venues, wedding related industries, hotels, talk to them about sacrifices. Some are making more than others and to brush that off so glibly is staggering. I'm not in any of those industries but I am aware what a hit they are taking, the stress it will be causing.

 

[RichA]

The recent study into the decoupling of cases and hospitalisations / deaths by Professor Philip Thomas at Bristol university is well worth a read. Link here - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-third-wave-its-here-but-it-shouldnt-delay-our-reopening

If it is behind a paywall then here is a quote to give an overview:

Philip Thomas, professor of risk management at Bristol university, attempted to unpick how damaging this wave of the virus would be, with or without a delay to the restrictions. His argument, based on a model which has been successfully tracking the pandemic in Britain, is that cases and hospitalisations and deaths are now very seriously de-coupled, and this should have prevented the NHS from collapsing. He predicted that if restrictions were lifted:

“‘We ought to brace ourselves for a surge of infections, one that has started already and may be greater than the wave seen in January. But crucially, the NHS should not come close to being overwhelmed. Cases will be mainly among the young, who are far less likely to get seriously sick — so daily deaths will run at a quarter of what they once did, before subsiding. There is no point delaying reopening, because a landmark has been reached: Covid-19 has been downgraded into a nasty bug which is now no more lethal than viruses such as influenza. My model points to about 7,000 more deaths to come. A daunting figure, yes, but about a third less than in a typical flu season.’​

And he pointed to the lack of hospitalisations in Bolton – which was the first area to be seriously hit by the Indian variant – as proof that now a huge proportion of people have been vaccinated, the rest of the country can cope with a greater number of cases:

“‘Take Bolton. Its third wave, which happened last month, saw the number of confirmed Covid cases surge back to where it was in January. But crucially, teenagers and children accounted for about half of these infections. The over-sixties (those most likely to get ill) accounted for just 3.5 per cent of them. It is too early to speak with any finality about deaths from Bolton’s third wave, but the number of Covid patients in hospital did not get above a third of the January peak. So Bolton offers a useful guide to what we can expect in Britain’s third wave: a significant number of cases, but mainly among the young, who mostly will emerge unscathed.’​

Not knocking The Spectator, but it makes no bones about its articles being paid opinion pieces, rather than factual reporting of news. To its credit, that acknowledgement sets it apart from most "news" sources that do pretend to be reporting only facts.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

You clearly said
''the current daily increase in infections''

I was pointing out the current daily number of infections has in fact decreased over the last 3 days and it is my hope that the 8,125 was the peak of what's being dubbed as the 'third wave' and if the majority of those cases aren't hospitalised then that's good news, wouldn't you agree?

Sorry but the report I heard, and the graph I saw, indicated to me that if things continue as they are then the daily number of infections will reach 16,000 by the end of the month. I may have misunderstood. But if something is going wrong for me and I don’t actually change anything I am doing, then it’ll keep going wrong - and that’s my confusion.

thinks - maybe what I heard was on the basis of ‘what-if’ we relax all restrictions on the 21st.

 

[road2ruin]

Loans, more loans? Why not bury perfectly good companies under a mountain of debt. They are not being given money, they will have to pay it back at some point. They were given small grants at one point but that money will be long gone.

Everyone is making sacrifices, blimey that is right. Pubs, restaurants, cafes, theatres, music venues, wedding related industries, hotels, talk to them about sacrifices. Some are making more than others and to brush that off so glibly is staggering. I'm not in any of those industries but I am aware what a hit they are taking, the stress it will be causing.

There are also the large costs that these companies incur when reopening. It's not a case of June 21st comes round and they open their doors and are ready to go, most will have spent the last weeks getting ready for the 21st and will have brought in stock in readiness. This will have now been wasted and in 4 weeks time what is to say that there isn't more prep done only to be told that SAGE are keen to keep things locked up for 'just' another 4 weeks etc etc. The financial support goes no where near covering all of the costs for most of these businesses and, as pointed out, loading themselves up with debt is not a great alternative.

 

[BiMGuy]

Loans, more loans? Why not bury perfectly good companies under a mountain of debt. They are not being given money, they will have to pay it back at some point. They were given small grants at one point but that money will be long gone.

Everyone is making sacrifices, blimey that is right. Pubs, restaurants, cafes, theatres, music venues, wedding related industries, hotels, talk to them about sacrifices. Some are making more than others and to brush that off so glibly is staggering. I'm not in any of those industries but I am aware what a hit they are taking, the stress it will be causing.

Many retired and reasonably well of people have no idea of the impact this last 15 months has had on many people. Not just businesses, but grassroots sports clubs, cubs/scouts and other groups are all struggling to retain volunteers and with their finances.

But what's another month ?‍

 

[Deleted member 15344]

The whole pandemic has been hard on many peoples businesses and work - some have lost their jobs and businesses and some have managed to create one - the government have tried to help as best as they can - grants , furlough , loans and rates reliefs - it’s very unfortunate for some

But then thousands have lost their lives , thousands have lost loved ones , thousands have lost friends

So whilst im sorry that someone can’t go watch a film or a concert or have a meal without having to wear a mask or they can have their pub full to the brim or someone can’t fly off to sit on a beach in Spain or that people like O Leary are losing money from his billions but none of that overrides the fact people have lost their lives through this and people still continue to be affected by the virus on a daily basis

Through out the whole pandemic I see many people go above and beyond to find a way to make their business work and they are now reaping those rewards for their hard work - I have also seen some do nothing but take government furlough and hand outs and be happy with that

There a many people out there suffering - last year it was decided to open up quickly to ease the areas of for example hospitality and we all saw the consequences of that through the winter whilst more lost their lives

If the powers to be have seen the rise of infections and want to delay by another 4 weeks then that’s the choice we go by - it was stated in the roadmap that non of the dates were fixed , there was always a chance that dates would move - that was very clear from the start so people shouldn’t be surprised or angry that a delay has been put in place.

 

[GB72]

Interesting point on BBC news this morning that part of the issue is that the symptoms of the Delta variant are different to previous variants, sore through, running nose etc, more akin to a cold than previous variants. That was news to me and fully understandable that symptoms like those, if not known about, could easily be passed off as hay fever or similar. If this is the case, and may @Ethan can clarify, this needs to be publicised far more. Last week I had a sniffle. If I had known that could be symptom, I would have taken a test as we have them in the house.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

If an extension to current restrictions is announced today I am expecting someone to explain why this has come to pass, and accept responsibility for the delta variant getting into the country and spreading as it has - causing the pain and hurt to many individuals and businesses that the extension will result in. I’m not seeing or hearing much about the delta variant causing the issues we are having in the US, rest of Europe and Scandinavia.

This moving of ’Freedom Day’ should have been unlikely and need not have happened had the delta variant been managed in accordance with the lessons that should have been learnt over the previous year.

 

[SocketRocket]

What is this great 'Opening Up' that some are so hungry for. This is a World Pandemic and taking narrow views like what the infection rate is in Chipping Sodbury and how many people have been vaccinated in Morton in the Marsh is not going to make it all go away and become 'Back to Normal'

? Happens and we need to face up to the fact that things like Holidays abroad and a life without Covid restrictions isn't anywhere on the horizon yet, even if we try removing them it's only going to be a temporary interlude. At the moment all we can reasonably do is mitigate risk as best we can and make the best of the freedoms available to us.

All my opinion of course and other opinions are freely available.

 

[Orikoru]

Why are people obsessing over this date? What is there left to open still? Can't we pretty much do most things already?

 

[PJ87]

Why are people obsessing over this date? What is there left to open still? Can't we pretty much do most things already?

Whilst I agree I'd like to see confirmed how many spectators the open can have this year

Mainly because I've got tickets rolled over from last year ?

 

[BiMGuy]

Why are people obsessing over this date? What is there left to open still? Can't we pretty much do most things already?

Like I said earlier. For a great many people, the current restrictions will feel like life as normal. For lots of other people it's a long way from being normal.

We all need to try and see things from other people's perspective. I don't mind admitting it's not always easy to do.

 

[Orikoru]

Like I said earlier. For a great many people, the current restrictions will feel like life as normal. For lots of other people it's a long way from being normal.

We all need to try and see things from other people's perspective. I don't mind admitting it's not always easy to do.

I wasn't being flippant, I genuinely don't know what things people are waiting for. Other than maybe holiday travel etc.

 

[Ethan]

Interesting point on BBC news this morning that part of the issue is that the symptoms of the Delta variant are different to previous variants, sore through, running nose etc, more akin to a cold than previous variants. That was news to me and fully understandable that symptoms like those, if not known about, could easily be passed off as hay fever or similar. If this is the case, and may @Ethan can clarify, this needs to be publicised far more. Last week I had a sniffle. If I had known that could be symptom, I would have taken a test as we have them in the house.

Yes, it does seem to have a slightly different presentation to the earlier versions of Covid. We can expect more of the same variability with future variants.

 

[GB72]

In the main I agree, I can do most things how I want to. Groups of 10 indoors would be easier than 6, both for the pub and myself, it would be better if you could go to the bar and order a drink but that is about it. Masks in shops, at work etc ha become second nature and I suspect I would think twice about going to a club or similar even after relaxation, not sure that I can think of a more perfect environment for spreading this thing.

As throughout, people are simply arguing their own corner. Those who are still shut are arguing to be open, those less affected are arguing for things to be shut. It is as it always was. One issue is that neither side is actually being asked to comment on the points raised by the other, having 2 inflammatory views run unquestioned suits the current media.

My only criticism would be that this date has never been certain and there has been an element of doubt since the arrival of the delta variant. As such more fool those who rushed ahead treating this date as gospel.

 

[drdel]

Like I said earlier. For a great many people, the current restrictions will feel like life as normal. For lots of other people it's a long way from being normal.

We all need to try and see things from other people's perspective. I don't mind admitting it's not always easy to do.

While we whinge about a delay in the UK we might just be thankful we don’t live in India, Africa etc!