chrisd
Major Champion
Can you point out the specific disingenuousness of each slide for us please and the effect caused?
Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?
- Thread starter drdel
- Start date
Can you point out the specific disingenuousness of each slide for us please and the effect caused?
Mandofred
Well-known member
Not very golf-like....but I really need to stop eating so much.....just sitting around playing PC games....
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
I thought they were quite clear and designed to illustrate specific points that were then clearly explained. The one that perhaps couldn’t be taken at face value as presented was that which showed the % of under 65s who develop Covid-19 that go into hospital as that figure was surprisingly high and not that far short of the figure for over 65s. But the point is that the chart showed %s and not actual numbers.
If my understanding of it is correct then it’s not saying similar numbers of under and over 65s get hospitalised - as that is not the case - very many more of the latter. Well I think that that is what it showed - to demonstrate that we can’t be complacent about letting loads of under 65s contract the virus as that would risk potentially large numbers getting ill and the analysis suggests almost half would be requiring hospitalisation. And therein lies risk to the NHS coping.
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Bars and restaurants opened at the weekend, and bowls opens tomorrow. Only 4 people per table, and the same for bowls. Numbers weren't good enough to allow movement beyond the town boundaries but that number was hit today and, fingers crossed, will be included in the weekly review on Thursday. Most towns south of us are showing similar numbers but everything north looks to be a few weeks behind. As of next week we should be able to travel down to Almeria and across to Malaga if we want to.
We have flights to Malaga moved from June last year to late June this year. Still not expecting to use them if truth be known, but that certainly sounds a little more encouraging.
MegaSteve
Tour Winner
Really don't give a flying fig leaf for a holiday...
I need something a whole lot more basic than that...
BIG hugs with my grandsons...
Roll on March 29...
I need something a whole lot more basic than that...
BIG hugs with my grandsons...
Roll on March 29...
backwoodsman
Tour Winner
I think you were understanding incorrectly. The bar chart was showing that of the people who got hospitalised, 58% were over 65, and 42% were under. Thats not the same as saying that 42% of the under 65s who contract the disease go to hospital. It was to show that a fairly high proportion of current admissions come from groups that are not yet being vaccinated - hence we still need to be cautious. The only issue I had with it was that it only showed data for a weeks' worth of admissions.
Pants
Challenge Tour Pro
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
Well your explanation is what I thought at first, but I then thought I must have missed part of the explanation as the % of under 65s was surprisingly high cf the over 65s. And my understanding was that the majority of hospitalisations were the elderly and I hadn’t considered such as 60-65 elderly and particularly vulnerable...but apparently they are. With your clarification it to me becomes an even more important chart.
Maybe it’s just that a large number of over 65s who have died were in care homes and never got to hospital...that would go to explain the split.
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backwoodsman
Tour Winner
What probably distorts our perception a bit, is that is doesnt take account of the respective proportions of the the population. Eg , there are a lot more more under 65 than there are over 65 (let's say 2:1 - don't know if that's correct but it will do for now). So, 58% of hospital admissions come from a group of say 15 million, the other 42% come from a group of say 30 million. (Am using simple numbers just for illustration)
I guess the point is that we know there are a hell of a lot of hospital admissions, and 42% of them is also a hell of a lot of people - from a group as yet unprotected.
Smiffy
Grand Slam Winner
Daughter Lydia delivered a lockdown baby this morning. Very proud...
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Paperboy
Mini Cam
Good too hear mate, she's looking well after you where worried after she caught COVID!
Smiffy
Grand Slam Winner
Yep. She's back and fighting
Love her to bits and can't wait to give her a big hug
chrisd
Major Champion
Gorgeous Rob! Nothing better than a grand child ??
DanFST
Head Pro
Slide 1: Even the title, we have a sample of 66,655. Cool!
- But when was the sample taken? When It's broken down into vaccination groups, seems a big omission when the vaccinations are done in order. And it makes a huge difference on hospitalisation.
28 days after admission, cool!
- Why was this chosen? How many days on average is each group in hospital before being released or death?
It's broken down in 3 sections of age group. Cool!
- Well it's not really, it's by vaccine groups. So group 4 and 6 don't fit with age. The asterix in the youngest group section. Relates to the top two groups.
- Youngest group covers 50 years. Middle group cover 20 years, Oldest cover Unknown amount of years.
- These are obviously absolute numbers, but how do they compare their representative amount of the population?
Slide 2: Title self explanatory. clear date sample. This is percentages, when absolutes have been used previously it could throw people off.
Only 2 age groups this time. Why? The median age is 40 in the UK, why has 65 been used?
- we saw the difference in absolute numbers, between the young and middle group in the last despite the middle group covering 30 less years!
- no mention or splitting of those in severe or high risk groups. What percentage of them is in each?
Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
Must admit I thought the same, but Oor Willie isnae goin bald.
Lord Snooty is an easy spot.
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
I think that this is the very important message to us as we go through the steps of opening up. That large number of people as yet unprotected could generate a large number of hospitalisations if the opening up goes wrong - with associated impact on the NHS. And that will be why in the later briefing Johnson did a bit of clarifying of his description of the approach as being 'irreversible' to the objective of not having to reverse anything. And I am glad that he did that - as that's the truth of it.
It is therefore for me a pity that such as the Sun; Telegraph and DM are having a go at him and the approach he has outlined as being too slow and cautious - that he has been listening too much to the 'gloomsters' and 'doomsters' of the science community. I for one am very glad that he has moved to that position. Because goodness me - we owe it to everyone in the NHS that we do everything to minimise risk of further increases in hospitalisations as things are opened-up, that by our actions and behaviours we take the pressure off the NHS and allow NHS workers to take holidays and other time off to recover.
I do worry though that we are gambling the house on people's behaviour - and the downside is new mutations if it goes wrong.
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SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
Lord Snooty or Bash Street School teacherMust admit I thought the same, but Oor Willie isnae goin bald.
Lord Snooty is an easy spot.
Swinglowandslow
Well-known member
Yes, quite so. But what annoyed me in this journalistic analysis and predictions game that they indulge in, is the number of times that they said that the PM promised that we would not reverse.
I didn't hear him say that, only that he wanted not to have to reverse.
Which is, of course, why we have the five weeks gap.
Let's hope that most will have seen what happens if we go gung-ho on the easement dates, and that common sense prevails, and that all goes a according to plan
DanFST
Head Pro
BREAKING: Lockdown easing could be slower than planned
That's from Sky News this morning, following their interview with Hancock. It's not breaking, it was clearly explained last night. "Journalism" really isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
I don't like that blanket bans are applied, I don't like that this "data driven" approach isn't in fact that. I don't like the way the data is presented (Thanks PWC!). But overall I like the roadmap.