• We'd like to take this opportunity to wish you a Happy Holidays and a very Merry Christmas from all at Golf Monthly. Thank you for sharing your 2025 with us!

Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Hobbit said:
Just a query @Ethan on the South African variant that's causing concern; cases and deaths in the UK to date, probably very few SA variant, are 59k per 1 million cases and 1750 deaths per 1 million. The SA variant, in SA, is showing a lot lower at 25k cases/1m and 815 deaths/1m. Why the huge emphasis on the SA variant?
Click to expand...

I am not sure the numbers necessarily tell the whole story, but the concern over the SA variant is the greater transmissibility, possible resistance to vaccination and risk of reinfection. Greater transmissibility effectively speeds up the race between outbreak and vaccination, but if vaccination is less effective then it will lead to growing cases again, including those now thought to be safe. And the more cases that are around, the greater risk of further variants emerging because they occur more or less randomly and the more virus there is, the more opportunities for random change to occur.
 
Ethan said:
And the more cases that are around, the greater risk of further variants emerging because they occur more or less randomly and the more virus there is, the more opportunities for random change to occur.
Click to expand...

Isn't this whole "we must stay locked down to stop variants" slightly pointless?

Open borders and Billions with no access to Vaccines. Tho admirable, our little rock has very little significance to how this plays out.
 
DanFST said:
Isn't this whole "we must stay locked down to stop variants" slightly pointless?

Open borders and Billions with no access to Vaccines. Tho admirable, our little rock has very little significance to how this plays out.
Click to expand...

No, it isn't pointless. The prevalence of the condition and the circumstances influencing its spread vary around the world, but the more we can reduce that spread and consequently the number of cases, the fewer variants there will be.

What do you propose, surrender and welcome our new viral overlords? You might find that the complacency of the younger age groups who think it won't affect them changes when a new variant emerges that does affect them. Maybe not to kill them, although there would inevitably be some of that, but to give them a nasty debilitating illness that lasts for 6 months or so, as well as a few time bombs placed in vital organs which will go off later in life.

There is enough vaccine made or makable to get control, and many borders aren't that open right now.
 
hovis said:
I've noticed that we seemed to have hit a plateau with around 12,000 infections a day
Click to expand...

Yes this week the level of cases dropping has slowed down - still a drop from last week , also a slight drop in the deaths as well

The Zoe app guy believes we have now hit the levels we had when we left the first lockdown and he expects those infections to drop significantly over the next month as the weather gets better and vaccine helps reduce infections
 
Hobbit said:
Just a query @Ethan on the South African variant that's causing concern; cases and deaths in the UK to date, probably very few SA variant, are 59k per 1 million cases and 1750 deaths per 1 million. The SA variant, in SA, is showing a lot lower at 25k cases/1m and 815 deaths/1m. Why the huge emphasis on the SA variant?
Click to expand...
You can’t escape South Africans! :whistle:
 
We need some better names for these variants. Dave Smith's Variant. The Amanda Holden one. The February variant brought to you by Pepsi Max. I am sure the collective minds here can think of a few more.
 
Pathetic Shark said:
We need some better names for these variants. Dave Smith's Variant. The Amanda Holden one. The February variant brought to you by Pepsi Max. I am sure the collective minds here can think of a few more.
Click to expand...

I think we should make the variants after celebs who break the rules

The Rita ora variant for example

Then it might hit home how their actions cost life's
 
pauljames87 said:
I think we should make the variants after celebs who break the rules

The Rita ora variant for example

Then it might hit home how their actions cost life's
Click to expand...


That’s a heck of a leap there

Whilst it’s not good people breaking lockdown rules - suggest that action costs life’s is a poor leap


anyway

7 day average Covid data for the UK is as follows:

Cases: Down 20.3% ↓

Patients admitted to hospital: Down 24.3% ↓

Deaths: Down 27.7% ↓
 
Liverpoolphil said:
That’s a heck of a leap there

Whilst it’s not good people breaking lockdown rules - suggest that action costs life’s is a poor leap


anyway

7 day average Covid data for the UK is as follows:

Cases: Down 20.3% ↓

Patients admitted to hospital: Down 24.3% ↓

Deaths: Down 27.7% ↓
Click to expand...

It's not a leap at all, any break of the rules adds to the spread that's why they are rules, pushes R up which spreads covid and kills more

I'e why they said meet up for Xmas kill your nan in new year

Fines don't work for celebs they just pay them

So the Kyle walker wave and the ora variant will do nicely

You can put all the postive numbers up but end of day even with things going down people are still dying.
 
Liverpoolphil said:
That’s a heck of a leap there
7 day average Covid data for the UK is as follows:

Cases: Down 20.3% ↓

Patients admitted to hospital: Down 24.3% ↓

Deaths: Down 27.7% ↓
Click to expand...
Whohooo, 5 more weeks and we are done! ;-)
I know that is not how the math works.

Serious question, do we know which value we are trending towards? Is there a floor value which is 'acceptable'? And have we got the math that under current trends would tell us when we are there?
 
larmen said:
Whohooo, 5 more weeks and we are done! ;-)
I know that is not how the math works.

Serious question, do we know which value we are trending towards? Is there a floor value which is 'acceptable'? And have we got the math that under current trends would tell us when we are there?
Click to expand...
Some reports say cases each day must be below 1K before the locks are undone. Some scientists are saying that cases per day are halving every 15 days. If current daily cases are around 12,000, then my maths calculate the locks are sealed for approx 45 days. Low and behold that takes us to around April 1, which miraculously ties in with Northern Irelands announcement the other day.
 
anotherdouble said:
Some reports say cases each day must be below 1K before the locks are undone. Some scientists are saying that cases per day are halving every 15 days. If current daily cases are around 12,000, then my maths calculate the locks are sealed for approx 45 days. Low and behold that takes us to around April 1, which miraculously ties in with Northern Irelands announcement the other day.
Click to expand...
Cheers. 1k a day seems a low target. I think if we are on 12 now that makes it roughly 8 more weeks (down to 6, 3, 1.5, 0.8) and little bit into April. I hope they don't open up for Easter then, Christmas didn't go to well.

Saying that, Scotland and N. Ireland did open schools which I am hoping for as well, but it might have an effect on the half-life number in teh calculations.

Traminator said:
MATHS ??
Click to expand...
Well, I learned Mathematik when I went to school, and now teaching the 4 year old just 'numbers' in home schooling. Will progress to maths eventually.
 
anotherdouble said:
Some reports say cases each day must be below 1K before the locks are undone. Some scientists are saying that cases per day are halving every 15 days. If current daily cases are around 12,000, then my maths calculate the locks are sealed for approx 45 days. Low and behold that takes us to around April 1, which miraculously ties in with Northern Irelands announcement the other day.
Click to expand...
If we have to wait until it’s under 1k then that’s maybe not going to be until roughly late May - last year before wide testing it didn’t get below 1k until middle of June and then only for a couple of weeks at most

They mention that they will use the data instead of dates but with the furlough scheme due to finish end of March that’s got to be some date they will use.

The most promising news which could help that number come down is the affect the vaccine appears to be having on infections - if it does help infections as well as expected then the 1k could be reached by the end of March. Maybe that’s why people are talking about spectators at football etc
 
Liverpoolphil said:
They mention that they will use the data instead of dates but with the furlough scheme due to finish end of March that’s got to be some date they will use.
c
Click to expand...

With the talk of the easing being irreversible and some of the other rumours doing the rounds I wonder if we are approaching the point that we have to open up or just run oit of money? Furlough has been in for nearly a year now and has cost the country billions, while tax revenue has been destroyed due to the millions being furloughed. Sooner or later the magic money tree is going to run out...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top