Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Deleted member 25172]

Regarding the age profile of hospitalisations currently, Sir Patrick Valance on Peston last night said there is no evidence that younger people are being hospitalised more than older people now. He said the demographics were the same, its just that, as total hospitalisations have increased, there are more younger people are being admitted , but the percentage is not much different to what it has been throughout the pandemic.

I assume ongoing vaccinations will potentially change that.

But it's a great headline to use for media to keep the clicks coming in.

BREKAING NEWS: MORE YOUNG PEOPLE THAN EVER IN HOSPITAL DUE TO COVID.

They're not wrong, but they're misleading.

 

[drdel]

Well, testing doesn't lead to admissions, it will lead to greater numbers in the cases reported. Symptoms lead to admissions.

Unless the propensity reduces the more people detected and shown positive the more will be found needing treatment.

 

[Ethan]

Regarding the age profile of hospitalisations currently, Sir Patrick Valance on Peston last night said there is no evidence that younger people are being hospitalised more than older people now. He said the demographics were the same, its just that, as total hospitalisations have increased, there are more younger people are being admitted , but the percentage is not much different to what it has been throughout the pandemic.

I assume ongoing vaccinations will potentially change that.

I just took a look at admission data. Young people are not being admitted more than older people, that was never suggested, but there seems to have been a small but significant shift in the numbers.

The most recent data set is for 6 Jan 2021. On that date, 472 patients aged 18-64 were admitted, out of a total number of 1179. One can reasonably assume the vast majority of the remainder are 65 or more. 18-64 are therefore 40% of admissions. So maybe that is an outlier. Let's try the first 5 days of January. 1822/4431, 41.1%

I then chose a couple of random dates back at the first peak 1-5 April 2020 and 1-5 May 20.

1-5 April: 711/2173 = 32.7%

1-5 May 1st, 443/1301 = 34.0%

There has been a clinical suspicion that a greater proportion of patients are now in the non-elderly group. I think that is an accurate observation.

2 days ago, Simon Stevens, head of the NHS pointed out that a quarter of patients were under 55. Was he remarking on that because it had not changed over the year?. I doubt it. It would be a little surprising if the age-mix had not changed, given the carnage caused in that older population so far.

 

[Ethan]

Unless the propensity reduces the more people detected and shown positive the more will be found needing treatment.

People get admitted to hospital with symptoms and clinical need, not positive tests.

 

[PJ87]

My wife's friend is a copper

Her mum just got police to her house reports of her mixing with kids from our area ..

I'e the coppers kids .. but it's a child under 1 so a support bubble is formed

What's worse is the details given to police are so precise that it's a neighbour or friend and that road is close everyone knows Ur name

 

[Deleted member 21258]

NHS data is here in spreadsheet form(I know I posted this link before) :-

Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity (england.nhs.uk)

Some slightly different data here to do with hospitalisations, worth looking at if you like to look at data and risk factors in your decision making :-

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/326bbfc2-d851-eb11-912d-00505601089b

We males have a harder life than the female of the species from the chart below

I know of three people who have hit the ICU, one still not out of hospital yet. Be careful people, given this forum tends to have people from the higher risk of the spectrum being critically ill(old).


Also being overweight isn't good

 

[Ethan]

Age is the largest factor, but not the only one. One way of dealing with other factors is to calculate a Covid Age. This effectively adds or subtracts age according to certain factors to give you an age that best reflects your risk.

Being male, BAME, obese, diabetic, have chronic kidney disease etc all adds years.

Have a go if you dare.

 

[SocketRocket]

Age is the largest factor, but not the only one. One way of dealing with other factors is to calculate a Covid Age. This effectively adds or subtracts age according to certain factors to give you an age that best reflects your risk.

Being male, BAME, obese, diabetic, have chronic kidney disease etc all adds years.

Have a go if you dare.

It's easy to see how a person's general health, fitness and age will affect their chance of recovering from certain serious illnesses. We have been informed that people from BAME backgrounds have a higher chance of Covid related death than a similar Caucasion person, however I've not seen anyone give a Medical explanation to why this should be. Surely someone in the Medical/Scientific world would have found a valid reason by now so that some form of medical help could be looked into.

 

[Jamesbrown]

I get that but not a policy of incarcerating any section of society to make life easier for another. I did explain earlier so sorry for repeating, there is a big difference between having to ration healthcare for the unwell and writing off healthy people's lives as if they don't matter.

It’s a policy that may come fruition if the vaccine doesn’t prevent transmission.

 

[SocketRocket]

It’s a policy that may come fruition if the vaccine doesn’t prevent transmission. View attachment 34482

But that's different. That's looking at a scenario where the vaccines don't reduce infections, it's not what we were previously discussing. The point under discussion was who should be prioritised for vaccination at the present time.

 

[Deleted member 18588]

It’s a policy that may come fruition if the vaccine doesn’t prevent transmission. View attachment 34482

But what she appears to be suggesting is that those in the priority groups will be vaccinated whilst the less vulnerable will just have to take their chance with the virus.

 

[Jamesbrown]

But that's different. That's looking at a scenario where the vaccines don't reduce infections, it's not what we were previously discussing. The point under discussion was who should be prioritised for vaccination at the present time.

Maybe I should of looked back wouldn’t of thought that would be up for a discussion as it should be obvious who should be vaccinated first.

 

[USER1999]

Went in to work today for a few hours, as I had some stuff to do that I can't do from home. Traffic was OK ish going in, but flipping heck it was gridlock coming home. So much for lock down.

 

[Tashyboy]

My wife's friend is a copper

Her mum just got police to her house reports of her mixing with kids from our area ..

I'e the coppers kids .. but it's a child under 1 so a support bubble is formed

What's worse is the details given to police are so precise that it's a neighbour or friend and that road is close everyone knows Ur name

When the country went into the first lockdown, the last night of freedom my daughter was down Nottingham with her boyfriend. Both coppers. Apparently all the pubs had a sale on to get rid of stock.Nigh on everyone was bladdered I was informed. Anyway daughter put a few photos of her on Facebook.
The following Monday she was called into the office, someone had reported them both for being out on the lash. Her (ex Hubby).
It was pointed out that the night they were out 3/4 of the country was out because they were allowed to be out.

 

[DanFST]

Do you have to be so rude just because someone has a different viewpoint.

When the experts say it won't allow transmission I will accept it doesn't, until then I will take the view it will.

Where have I been rude? I just realise there are different ways to look at it. Indonesia and China have done differently in there vaccination program. Is it right, who knows yet? But to say it makes you sick and that young people are being selfish is just bang out of order.

I was infected with covid in March. I have been locked up at home alone for the best part of a year. If current thinking like yours continues, I won't have a normal life until herd immunity is achieved through vaccines going by those most likely to die to youngest. What's that 2 years of my life most likely, for something that won't kill me? Not to mention I'll be repaying this in taxes for 50+ years

I live in an area with under 5% over 65's. In my day to day I come across a handful. Thankfully my sector isn't too damaged by working from home. But there is 100's of shops and eateries in CW, 99% of which are shut. Thousands unemployed, most likely on dodgy contracts, struggling. That's fine, if there is no other alternative. But for you to kick off when there might be even the suggestion of a better alternative and a change of thinking. And then to say it's young people being selfish (as you have done most of lockdown - old people don't break the rules apparently) Screams of irony.

 

[Tashyboy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-55661062

heartbreaking

 

[DanFST]

But what she appears to be suggesting is that those in the priority groups will be vaccinated whilst the less vulnerable will just have to take their chance with the virus.

The big political issue with this is young people ask.

If we are taking the chance now, why have we been forced to be locked down for a year?

 

[Ethan]

It's easy to see how a person's general health, fitness and age will affect their chance of recovering from certain serious illnesses. We have been informed that people from BAME backgrounds have a higher chance of Covid related death than a similar Caucasion person, however I've not seen anyone give a Medical explanation to why this should be. Surely someone in the Medical/Scientific world would have found a valid reason by now so that some form of medical help could be looked into.

I think the prevailing opinion is that it is probably linked to Vitamin D deficiency which is more common in BAME people, because melanin in skin impairs Vitamin D synthesis. Vitamin D is important in immune and inflammatory responses. (I have been taking a Vitamin D supplement for that reason during Covid). That is made worse by higher levels of diabetes and cardiovascular risk which are partly linked to genetics and BAME people also experience greater of social deprivation. So multifactorial causes.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

The big political issue with this is young people ask.

If we are taking the chance now, why have we been forced to be locked down for a year?

Been waiting for this question to be asked and hit the mainstream. As been looking at it from my childrens point of view since the beginning.

Sure that's one of the reasons why they are talking about offering vaccines to anyone by autumn, to try to stem that, but still completely understandable line of questioning.

Lets not forgot people are dying from other causes as covid has been put as No 1...collateral damage.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Age is the largest factor, but not the only one. One way of dealing with other factors is to calculate a Covid Age. This effectively adds or subtracts age according to certain factors to give you an age that best reflects your risk.

Being male, BAME, obese, diabetic, have chronic kidney disease etc all adds years.

Have a go if you dare.

Not seen that before, cheers.

For me same as my age, but not true for other loved ones.