Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Deleted member 29109]

There may well be reasons that as an observer misses the point but why doesn't a region have a/some hospital(s) set aside to Covid cases that leaves others to deal with only non covid.

Some places are doing this. Addenbrooks is converting some existing and I think a new built space into covid wards. But it ca take a bit of time to reconfigure depending on the services already in there and what might be needed.

 

[ger147]

Looks like a big chunk of the west of Scotland is heading towards Tier 4, which is basically a lockdown i.e. all hospitality venues and non-essentail shops closed etc. More grim news as 2020 staggers towards its end.

Official announcement will be tomorrow but we've been prepared to expect the worst.

 

[robinthehood]

The politicians in NI are beginning to talk about tightening lockdown restrictions further, after extending the planned lockdown by a week. Looks ominous. I think it will be a very courageous decision (as Sir Humphrey would have put it) to ease lockdown much in England from Dec 2nd unless they are prepared to risk things blowing up over Christmas and New Year.

Just open golf courses. All good then.

 

[Backache]

Five Conservative MPs now tested positive - what the heck's that all about...from the meeting with the PM last Thursday...clustered, minglin' and just not very brilliant.

Putting aside everything else as I must - this example rather highlights for me the impact a 'super-spreader' can have on a group who are either allowed to mingle in a work context and so without masks, or a group who do not adhere rigorously to the rules.

Think it was only one who has tested positive, the rest are self isolating as contacts.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Just not getting how many friends and family of friends are planning Christmas get togethers - with some already setting out their travel plans around the country and into the country from abroad. And they seem to be doing the planning and booking flights in full expectation that they will be able to go ahead with their plans.

With this evening news about not coming out of lockdown on 2nd Dec or coming out and going immediately into a strengthened tiering system I am wondering whether such reports will have the slightest impact on what we’ve heard planned.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Think it was only one who has tested positive, the rest are self isolating as contacts.

12 self-isolating I now hear. What were they up to not keeping their distance...even in a work context they should surely keep their distance.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

After the announcement of the Pfizer results, Moderna was expected to post string numbers as they are somewhat similar in terms of mode of action. I wouldn't place too much on the 90 vs 95% difference, very few people got Covid on either vaccine so the statistical reliability of the precise number is not high. Either way, both were very effective, and interestingly, it has been reported that none of the few people who got Covid on the Moderna vaccine had a bad case. This might suggest that the severity is also reduced, which would be great news, but again, small numbers.

It will be interesting to see if the AZ vaccine reports similar numbers. There is a feeling around that it might fall a bit short, but still be pretty good.

The UK had not previously reserved any Moderna vaccine, but I expect they will be scrambling to do so now.

I was wondering about 90 positive infections in a sample of 15,000 compared with 5 in the vaccinated 15,000 - just didn’t seem statistically significant when you surely cant have consistent exposure in similar scenarios across both sets of 15,000. I want to believe it’s significant.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

12 self-isolating I now hear. What were they up to not keeping their distance...even in a work context they should surely keep their distance.

I don't think the SD distances comes into it in an indoors situation that hasn't got excellent ventilation.
I have mentioned in a few posts that I've read more and more that scientists etc are believing that aerosol spreading is the real culprit. People being in the same enclosed space breathing each other's air, it circulates round and round far beyond 1 or 2 metres. Like being in a room full of smokers.
Just this morning on the BBC news app there was a piece about it.
Cited a chap in a restaurant who infected nine others there.etc
That's why we have the present spike, since the opening of pubs and restaurants ,and family gatherings, (the last happening but shouldn't have), -I.e. Indoors.And we didn't have big spike after beach invasions in the summer etc because they were outdoors.
Which means that those you speak of planning get togethers are not going to help matters, to put it politely!

 

[GB72]

Just not getting how many friends and family of friends are planning Christmas get togethers - with some already setting out their travel plans around the country and into the country from abroad. And they seem to be doing the planning and booking flights in full expectation that they will be able to go ahead with their plans.

With this evening news about not coming out of lockdown on 2nd Dec or coming out and going immediately into a strengthened tiering system I am wondering whether such reports will have the slightest impact on what we’ve heard planned.

Certainly cannot see more than the return of the rule of 6 (maybe with young kids not counting) cannot see overnight stays being allowed. Got plans for all eventualities from down at my in-laws to a few people from the village, to just my mum as we are her support bubble to just my wife and I. Just wish they would make a decision as don't fancy the idea of last minute food shopping.

 

[HomerJSimpson]

We will definitely get Christmas. Political suicide not too and will kill any national support for lockdown stone dead. However to what degree we will be restricted remains uncertain but we've already made the decision not to go anywhere near the in-laws (either visiting or having them over) and so it will be HID and I for the whole festive period until after the new year. That's another event I think we will get (if only as a lifeline to the pubs) but again in restricted circumstances and again something I will be avoiding. Basically I'm shutting the door on Christmas eve and coming out in 2021.

 

[Ethan]

I was wondering about 90 positive infections in a sample of 15,000 compared with 5 in the vaccinated 15,000 - just didn’t seem statistically significant when you surely cant have consistent exposure in similar scenarios across both sets of 15,000. I want to believe it’s significant.

As far as I can tell, the stat plan for the study assumed a lower effect size, more like 60%, so the study was set up based on 160-odd Covid cases having occurred which would have been enough to show an effect of the expected size, but because the effect size turned out to be higher, the number of cases ended to answer the statistical question occurred sooner at 95 cases. I haven't seen a p-value for that, but I would assume with that magnitude of difference, and to have triggered a public report, it has to be statistically significant.

The question of balance between groups, which is what I assume you mean by consistent exposure, is always a consideration n clinical trials. 15k per group is a pretty big trial, so assuming that randomisation is being done properly (which I do), the groups should be very well balanced for all the important factors. They may also have nested certain criteria in the study design to ensure balance; age, gender, certain co-morbidities etc.

Based on what I have seen of the Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines, these look like robust results. Neither has answered the long term effect yet, but there really isn't a good reason to assume it will fade faster than natural immunity, and some reason to think it may last longer.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

As far as I can tell, the stat plan for the study assumed a lower effect size, more like 60%, so the study was set up based on 160-odd Covid cases having occurred which would have been enough to show an effect of the expected size, but because the effect size turned out to be higher, the number of cases ended to answer the statistical question occurred sooner at 95 cases. I haven't seen a p-value for that, but I would assume with that magnitude of difference, and to have triggered a public report, it has to be statistically significant.

The question of balance between groups, which is what I assume you mean by consistent exposure, is always a consideration n clinical trials. 15k per group is a pretty big trial, so assuming that randomisation is being done properly (which I do), the groups should be very well balanced for all the important factors. They may also have nested certain criteria in the study design to ensure balance; age, gender, certain co-morbidities etc.

Based on what I have seen of the Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines, these look like robust results. Neither has answered the long term effect yet, but there really isn't a good reason to assume it will fade faster than natural immunity, and some reason to think it may last longer.

Thanks for that explanation. Reassuring. ?

 

[Backache]

I think the fact that two vaccines with similar technology in two different trials appear to have come out with virtually identical results means that we can be pretty confident that the effect is real and the effect size is probably a good estimate.

 

[SaintHacker]

With the incredible speed and hopefully efficiency these vaccines have been produced at makes the conspiracist in me wonder if Covid and a potential vaccine have been around for a lot longer than we know about

 

[Swinglowandslow]

I suspect you are partly right, but for the conspiracy bit.
As I understand it,( Ethan will clarify), vaccines for all sorts of diseases etc are being worked on all the time.
And Covid19 is a type of virus that is not new, just the particular "bits of it" that make it so deadly ( in some).
So, attempting to make a vaccine for it doesn't mean you are starting at base 1.
Add to that , that it is a pandemic we're in, with all the associated disruptions as well as the high death count, and you can see why all the stops have been pulled out.

 

[Ethan]

I suspect you are partly right, but for the conspiracy bit.
As I understand it,( Ethan will clarify), vaccines for all sorts of diseases etc are being worked on all the time.
And Covid19 is a type of virus that is not new, just the particular "bits of it" that make it so deadly ( in some).
So, attempting to make a vaccine for it doesn't mean you are starting at base 1.
Add to that , that it is a pandemic we're in, with all the associated disruptions as well as the high death count, and you can see why all the stops have been pulled out.

Vaccines are often developed in piecemeal form, a bit of research, no rush, the paper is published, then a pharma company gets interested, does some more research, conducts the trials step by step with some downtime in between each, then seeks approval, the regulators take up to a year to review, then the company starts making it. The oft quoted 10 years is not representative of modern development, though.

With Covid, there was a great deal more urgency and the genome was available, so instead of a lot of faffing around looking for how to attenuate or inactivate the live virus, it was possible to quickly make products resemble the genetic code of the protein spike, the funding was made available quickly, and clinical trials were varied out at the same time as manufacturing. The regulatory authorities agreed to review the package in parallel, so most of the saving has been in removing the wasted tome in between steps and doing stuff in parallel rather than series. The leading products contain no Covid, unlike most vaccines which contain some part of the target virus, inactivated or weekend in some way.

Covid may have been around longer than we thought, but we didn't now at the time. The vaccine was definitely not available and is being developed as fast as possible compatible with safety and efficacy requirements.

 

[ColchesterFC]

I suspect you are partly right, but for the conspiracy bit.
As I understand it,( Ethan will clarify), vaccines for all sorts of diseases etc are being worked on all the time.
And Covid19 is a type of virus that is not new, just the particular "bits of it" that make it so deadly ( in some).
So, attempting to make a vaccine for it doesn't mean you are starting at base 1.
Add to that , that it is a pandemic we're in, with all the associated disruptions as well as the high death count, and you can see why all the stops have been pulled out.

Not to mention all the additional millions of pounds/dollars that are being thrown at finding a vaccine that in normal times wouldn't be available.

 

[AmandaJR]

Finally David seems through this in terms of fever and 48 hours without an upward spike in temperature - thank goodness.

Dogs and me are happy that I'm free to take them on nice long walks again.

It's the simple things...

 

[HomerJSimpson]

Finally David seems through this in terms of fever and 48 hours without an upward spike in temperature - thank goodness.

Dogs and me are happy that I'm free to take them on nice long walks again.

It's the simple things...

That's good news but make sure he takes it easy. From those I know that have had it quite badly it really knocks them for six for a few weeks

 

[AmandaJR]

That's good news but make sure he takes it easy. From those I know that have had it quite badly it really knocks them for six for a few weeks

Agreed and to be honest he's not up to doing much but might try a short walk with the dogs tomorrow. I'm frustratingly ok until I exert myself and I like to exert myself!