PJ87
Journeyman Pro
My club has emailed saying they are unsure if we will come out into tier 1 2 or 3 so have taken booking system down as if it's 1 or 2 it's "normal" if 3 then down to 2 balls so they don't want 4 balls booked just incase
Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?
- Thread starter drdel
- Start date
My club has emailed saying they are unsure if we will come out into tier 1 2 or 3 so have taken booking system down as if it's 1 or 2 it's "normal" if 3 then down to 2 balls so they don't want 4 balls booked just incase
What is the R rate for the NE Paul? I've not followed it to that level but I am aware James Cook University hospital now has 5 Covid wards. With what will be happening in the community, it doesn't make good reading.
As an aside, I've looked at R rates for the flu pandemics in the last 100 years. Spanish flu had an R rate of 1.80, and most of the R's for each of the nasty outbreaks have looked very similar. What would the mortality rate of Spanish flu have been if the patients had been supported by modern science? And what will subsequent waves look like for Covid as medicine gets a grip with treating it?
How long did Spanish flu last? There's some papers that suggest it started in the autumn of 1917 and went on till the spring of 1920. How many waves will we see from Covid? There's been some papers that suggest it might have 6 waves, diminishing ripples, and run for about 2 years. Will it? Maybe those questions are better put to Italian Outcast and Ethan.
Those that are impatient to get out there and have some fun, just remember the handwashing and masks. Just as you remember, almost subconsciously, to put on a seat belt or take that second glance when you're about to pull out, there's new habits to be learned so that we can all carry on living.
D
Deleted member 16999
Guest
As of yesterday it was 1.0-1.2 for North East & Yorkshire (we’re lumped together) mid Oct it was 1.3-1.4.
I think with the miserable weather recently less people are naturally out and about, it’s still far more than the first lockdown and more than it should or needs to be! But I do feel the numbers up here were/are skewed by both the increase in testing and the return of Schools and Uni’s in mid-Sept. The majority of cases we are hearing about around Seaham are still, on the main, linked to local schools.
I agree this will be with us in varying degrees for a long while yet and I’m not sure if we’ll get back to were we were or we’ll end up with a new “normal” of sorts.
On the Spanish Flu, an interesting read was on how it spread, ie mainly around the world via the Sea routes, so maybe that would of spread quicker or burnt out quicker in a modern setting.?
@Hobbit one of the issues here is that the NE has been lumped together as one unit. You know very well that Northumberland is a decent distance to Hartlepool, North Tyneside and Co. Durham aren't linked etc. James Cook might be busy but last I heard the ward for Northumberland had plenty of empty beds, 50% empty. Now, my data may be a little out of date but you get the gist. For a good spell Teeside had better figures than the rest of the region, now not so much.
The R rate in Teeside may be high, up here low, Durham low, overall R rate getting better as it averages out. The region should be separated into it's natural sections, not grouped as it is right now.
The R rate in Teeside may be high, up here low, Durham low, overall R rate getting better as it averages out. The region should be separated into it's natural sections, not grouped as it is right now.
We're suffering a similar lumping in. Locally, after 3 really tough weeks for numbers, things are dropping off. Unfortunately, Andalucia has some of the worst numbers in Spain. And as a result we're already hearing of an extension through to mid-Dec.
The lockdown itself isn't too bad.... if you live in a decent sized town. We're hearing of people in the village being fined for going to the next town for shopping. There's 3 corner shops in the village + a proper butcher. However, if you want fresh milk you aren't getting it here. UHT or nothing, and its been like that for the 4.5 years we've had our place.
If we lived in the town that we're moving to in 2.5 weeks time we'd have access to everything we want, including bowling.
D
Deleted member 16999
Guest
We have the weird situation were we are classed as Durham for statistics etc, but an Ambulance picking you up takes you to Sunderland.
It led to a lot of confusion in the summer when Durham Trusts were reporting low figures and Sunderland above average and we were falling between the 2, even as of last night Durham and Darlington Hospital Trust were reporting 9 cases of people with COVID in ICU’s across the trust out of a normal capacity of 19 beds
I can’t fnd the covid figure for Sunderland Trust, but in normal time they have 22 ICU beds available.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
There may well be reasons that as an observer misses the point but why doesn't a region have a/some hospital(s) set aside to Covid cases that leaves others to deal with only non covid.
Backache
Assistant Pro
Might work if they were close together, but people with covid get other conditions and people with other conditions get covid, the relative proportions with each condton will fluctuate through the epidemic so hospitals will get too full or empty. They do segregate within hospitals in different wards where possible.
Interesting question. Once upon a time, there used to be isolation hospitals for TB. My mum was a theatre sister in a TB hospital near Wolsingham, Co. Durham.
But if a hospital has a number of specialties, e.g. oncology, cardiac, dermatology, would you close those depts so that the hospital was Covid only? Another issue might be the number of ICU Covid patients. Across, say, 5 hospitals there might be 70 ICU Covids. Fitting those into a 20 bed unit is difficult, even if cardiac ICU and HDU was used for the really sick. An ICU bed space has more infrastructure than a general ward bed space.
Ethan
Money List Winner
The problem is that people are coming in from various sources for assessment. If they pitch up at the local ED with possible Covid, do you assess them there and then ship them off to the Covid sanatorium, or do you bring all suspect cases for assessment at a staging area adjacent to the Covid sanatorium and then admit those that are likely and boot those who aren't? It means a lot of transport going further than it probably would, and greater downtime for them.
The Nightingale Hospitals are not suitable for really sick patients, they don't really have proper ICU facilities, they are probably better as step-down convalescent hospitals prior to discharge. Nightingales also put pressure on local hospitals because staff and equipment are redeployed from elsewhere. It is unclear if they really help or hinder the overall effort.
The Nightingale Hospitals are not suitable for really sick patients, they don't really have proper ICU facilities, they are probably better as step-down convalescent hospitals prior to discharge. Nightingales also put pressure on local hospitals because staff and equipment are redeployed from elsewhere. It is unclear if they really help or hinder the overall effort.
chellie
Tour Winner
Hope David is feeling better today and also that you are Amanda.
AmandaJR
Money List Winner
Thanks. He had a better evening without a rise in temperature and shivers but high temperature again this morning. Flipping thing is taking some fighting off but signs of him getting topside of it I hope. My last day of self isolation today and whilst I wouldn't do much with my freedom it will be nice to have options!
I'm so bored I have watched the whole grand prix so far - it is more exciting in the wet though!
D
Deleted member 16999
Guest
Any update on the immunity after having covid? Seen the PM is isolating after coming in to contact with someone else who is positive, is that because he (anyone) can still be a carrier or is it because we don’t yet if he or anyone can get sick again?
Slime
Tour Winner
I can't go to work today until the couriers have collected my Covid test.
Being self-employed, that's not ideal, but I do appreciate the bigger picture.
Being self-employed, that's not ideal, but I do appreciate the bigger picture.
I presume it is a bit of both. You have 90 days after having caught it where you do not have to isolate again but he is outside of this. I guess this is all too new, not enough info yet, so the system plays it ultra cautious.
(hopefully @Ethan will be along shortly to clarify)
Ethan
Money List Winner
It is based on simplicity rather than science. In all likelihood he still has antibodies, but even if doesn't, immune memory and T-cell response should take care of any Covid he encounters. I would presume that as well as not being symptomatic, he is not likely to be a transmitter either.
Back in March there was some discussion about immunity passports, but Govt decided this would lead to a two tier system for social distancing and all the other measures and lead to non-compliance. I think for the same reason they would be very wary of suggesting that Johnson doesn't religiously honour the rules now because everyone else who had, or thought they had, Covid might decide to do what they wanted.
One other question is why Number 10 doesn't practice social distancing or masking. This was an unnecessary complication.
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
Five Conservative MPs now tested positive - what the heck's that all about...from the meeting with the PM last Thursday...clustered, minglin' and just not very brilliant.
Putting aside everything else as I must - this example rather highlights for me the impact a 'super-spreader' can have on a group who are either allowed to mingle in a work context and so without masks, or a group who do not adhere rigorously to the rules.
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Italian outcast
Hacker
I agree Johnson has to do what he is doing at the moment - i'm unsure the protocols fully take into situational circumstances - distancing and masks in and around no10 etc
BUT...At some point they will have to bring in a two-tier system for some aspects
You cannot have continual self-isolation after being 'in contact' i.e., post track and trace as in Johnson - applied to everyone forever although
At some point those post-covid or post vaccination (who could be considered as having an immunity passport) will have to be exempt from self-isolation aspects - otherwise it will take ages to get out of this cycle - and restrict much of the broader socio-economic benefits that vaccination will bring
However, any post-covid or post vaccination passport should not exempt anyone from more general lockdown protocols - distancing, masks transport etc - these should apply to everyone as appropriate - in part to maintain social/group compliance - and also as its impossible to monitor everyone for their status on a day to day basis
That to me would seem the best working strategy to all of this but i would believe that they will roll that out only after the first phase of vaccination
Ethan
Money List Winner
Sure, some sort of tipping point will be reached, mostly in terms of numbers of presumed immune people as well as public understanding of what it means to be immune, and must lead to exemptions from the needlessly damaging aspects of policy.
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
I found myself yesterday contemplating the argument of an anti-vacc'er - that all who wish to be vaccinated will (in time) be vaccinated and that will 'protect' them from infection from those who do not want to be vaccinated and who subsequently are infected by the virus. Yes the transition period to when all who want to be vaccinated are vaccinated will be problematic indeed - but that period is perhaps subject to different considerations to when all are vaccinated who want to be vaccinated.
But of course I can then not see past the load imposed on the NHS of all those not vaccinated and becoming ill with Covid-19. Despite what I might want I feel that we cannot simply say - 'tough' - as that way lies telling smokers, drinkers - and even then perhaps such as reckless swimmers, climbers etc - 'tough.
But of course I can then not see past the load imposed on the NHS of all those not vaccinated and becoming ill with Covid-19. Despite what I might want I feel that we cannot simply say - 'tough' - as that way lies telling smokers, drinkers - and even then perhaps such as reckless swimmers, climbers etc - 'tough.