Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[rudebhoy]

Good post, and is exactly why the Government has been forced into a 2nd lockdown, because if we go the other way and let Covid-19 run free all those figures will drastically rise as the NHS and economy is pushed to collapse.

Or we cross our fingers, hope it takes none of our loved ones then state the Government got it wrong.

Personally I prefer the way the Government is trying.

I agree we need to do something, and welcome the imminent lockdown. My issue with it is that it does not go far enough. The return of millions of kids to school and university is the root cause of the second wave. There are 3 million students in further education, forcing them to travel to new cities in September was utter madness, driven by financial concerns. The vast majority are not having any face to face lessons, they should be told to go home and stay home until next summer.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

As we head into Lockdown 2.0 is appears to be on the back of the 'science' telling us that we need this to ensure that we don't reach a level of cases/depths that have been put forward my SAGE. My issue with SAGE is how they are allowed to put forward these scenarios without also putting out the data that they are based on. I am not talking about us as members of a golf forum pouring over the facts and figures however why are other scientists who are equally qualified as those in SAGE not able to see what the numbers are based upon? Every single SAGE scenario is the worst case +1, the impact these lockdowns will have on the majority of the population is incalculable and yet we are expected to just accept it.

I have no problem with the lockdown if the reason behind it is justified but what I do have an issue with is 'SAGE think we should do it' and no supporting evidence as to why. I am almost certain that come December 2nd the lockdown will be extended up until Christmas at the very earliest if not into the new year, the science will dictate that the supporting evidence requires it however will they finally publish any of the data, I suspect not. Surely the who point of science has always been that it is evidence based and it's not just the findings that are out in in the public domain but also the workings that are able to be scrutinised by others. It seems SAGE are able to say whatever they want and we have to accept it?

Do you not consider the graphs and explanations at the press briefings on TV as evidence enough.
It is for the general public, the technical stuff is for those qualified to understand it.
To say there is no evidence shown to us is plain wrong.

 

[road2ruin]

Do you not consider the graphs and explanations at the press briefings on TV as evidence enough.
It is for the general public, the technical stuff is for those qualified to understand it.
To say there is no evidence shown to us is plain wrong.

The graphs etc are what they want to show us but there is nothing deeper to show where this evidence is from etc and what it is based on. I can draw a really pretty graph and how everyone here how the virus is now no existent within the community however would you not question where I had got that graph from and what is is based upon? As I said, I want the evidence and the reasoning behind it to be made public so those WHO ARE QUALIFIED might look and understand it. As things stand we just have to trust what we are being shown, why the reluctance to provide info on what it is based upon?

 

[rudebhoy]

The graphs etc are what they want to show us but there is nothing deeper to show where this evidence is from etc and what it is based on. I can draw a really pretty graph and how everyone here how the virus is now no existent within the community however would you not question where I had got that graph from and what is is based upon? As I said, I want the evidence and the reasoning behind it to be made public so those WHO ARE QUALIFIED might look and understand it. As things stand we just have to trust what we are being shown, why the reluctance to provide info on what it is based upon?

The numbers drill down to local areas.

Not sure what more evidence you are looking for - the names and addresses of everyone who has contracted the virus?

 

[Mudball]

Mentally this is going to be more challenging.. So i just signed up for a 15 month distant learning course... i think i need something to look forward and keep my head engaged during this mad period. Also a good way to e-meet people outside my company. hopefully at some point we will all meet each other.

Also signed up for a diet+exercise program.. hopefully will help shed a few pounds and help keep me away from the sauce.

Roll on lockdown..

 

[SocketRocket]

The graphs etc are what they want to show us but there is nothing deeper to show where this evidence is from etc and what it is based on. I can draw a really pretty graph and how everyone here how the virus is now no existent within the community however would you not question where I had got that graph from and what is is based upon? As I said, I want the evidence and the reasoning behind it to be made public so those WHO ARE QUALIFIED might look and understand it. As things stand we just have to trust what we are being shown, why the reluctance to provide info on what it is based upon?

All the numbers are there if you want to dig them out. It sounds like you have formed an opinion that is influenced by your personal circumstances and are using spurious arguments to support it, rather than looking at the data and facts then forming an opinion based on them.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

How has it affected me? Well the announcement on Saturday gave my wife a second diy wind and that meant I spent 3 hours yesterday dismantling an old fitted wardrobe in our spare room. One car full to the tip yesterday, second trip after work today. A further bit of work required to cut two large bits of wood up that are too big to fit in the car or pick up on my own before they potentially close on Thursday. The evenings and weekend will then be spent steaming off wall paper followed by painting walls. Darn this virus

 

[Slab]

The graphs etc are what they want to show us but there is nothing deeper to show where this evidence is from etc and what it is based on. I can draw a really pretty graph and how everyone here how the virus is now no existent within the community however would you not question where I had got that graph from and what is is based upon? As I said, I want the evidence and the reasoning behind it to be made public so those WHO ARE QUALIFIED might look and understand it. As things stand we just have to trust what we are being shown, why the reluctance to provide info on what it is based upon?

But those who understand it aren't the 'public' so the data doesn't have to be made public. Does anyone know for certain that the data hasn't been made available/shared with those in the 'trade' ?

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Good post, and is exactly why the Government has been forced into a 2nd lockdown, because if we go the other way and let Covid-19 run free all those figures will drastically rise as the NHS and economy is pushed to collapse.

Or we cross our fingers, hope it takes none of our loved ones then state the Government got it wrong.

Personally I prefer the way the Government is trying.

I suppose I was trying to make was that just repeating what we have already done, is destined to see more add to the same results.

So if we go lockdown and then allow people to meet up indoors again generally afterwards or for Christmas, no surprise the virus spread will pick up(this pick up, started in about June/July btw, if you look at graphs, same for most of Europe as well).

Just some of the collateral damage from the policies and peoples actions to date can be seen from my previous post, and the collateral damage is rapidly getting worse and will exceed the horrible 'let it just rip' option.

As we don't seem to have the necessary balls as a nation or individually to take proper hard action, then I just wish for an effective and safe vaccine as quick as possible. Hopefully the results will be announced in the next month and we will have some half decent answers on the vaccine situation, but even with vaccines its not likely until say 2022-2023 that things maybe returning more to the old normal.

All very sad, loads of deaths and illness tbh

 

[Deleted member 21258]

But those who understand it aren't the 'public' so the data doesn't have to be made public. Does anyone know for certain that the data hasn't been made available/shared with those in the 'trade' ?

You need all the public to buy into the policies, to help maximum complying.

Therefore most data should be made public, including the basis of each of the models etc.

My personal opinion(and I suppose it would be, as I like to ask questions, used to be like it at school, though all studying and even still now) and if the basis of each model etc was made public, then it would certainly make me for one believe certain graphs more or less.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

I suppose I was trying to make was that just repeating what we have already done, is destined to see more add to the same results.

So if we go lockdown and then allow people to meet up indoors again generally afterwards or for Christmas, no surprise the virus spread will pick up(this pick up, started in about June/July btw, if you look at graphs, same for most of Europe as well).

Just some of the collateral damage from the policies and peoples actions to date can be seen from my previous post, and the collateral damage is rapidly getting worse and will exceed the horrible 'let it just rip' option.

As we don't seem to have the necessary balls as a nation or individually to take proper hard action, then I just wish for an effective and safe vaccine as quick as possible. Hopefully the results will be announced in the next month and we will have some half decent answers on the vaccine situation, but even with vaccines its not likely until say 2022-2023 that things maybe returning more to the old normal.

All very sad, loads of deaths and illness tbh

I agree with 99% of what you put, I’m not sure how you can state the bit in bold as the “let it rip” scenario is also the worst case scenario.

As for the vaccine, the Government Head of Vaccine’s stated last week to the US Venture Capitalists all over 50’s will have access to a Vaccine by easter. Surely this is a massive statement that should be highlighted.

 

[Jimaroid]

Does anyone know if an antibody test kit is available privately? I don't qualify for the UK at-home antibody testing being done by the various UK governments.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Does anyone know if an antibody test kit is available privately? I don't qualify for the UK at-home antibody testing being done by the various UK governments.

The only ones I could find was goto a private clinic(or like). The quick testing ones do not seem to be available for public purchase, when I looked about a month ago

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

All the numbers are there if you want to dig them out. It sounds like you have formed an opinion that is influenced by your personal circumstances and are using spurious arguments to support it, rather than looking at the data and facts then forming an opinion based on them.

The graphs also - usefully for me - showed the uncertainty associated with the 'consensus' likely trajectory (as was shown by the solid line and the shaded area of the same colour). I am thinking that the lower and upper bounds of uncertainty will have been arrived at (at least partly) through different modelling scenarios investigated by the many different groups doing the modelling, where different assumptions were made. Some assumptions resulted in a more 'optimistic' growth - some a more 'pessimistic' growth.

It was made clear that these graphs were not those of a single modelling group - but were an aggregation of modelling by many different groups. The key point for me was that the lower bound for each 'outcome' modelled was still on an exponential growth trajectory - albeit lagging the 'consensus' - all it was doing was lagging.

 

[SocketRocket]

You need all the public to buy into the policies, to help maximum complying.

Therefore most data should be made public, including the basis of each of the models etc.

My personal opinion(and I suppose it would be, as I like to ask questions, used to be like it at school, though all studying and even still now) and if the basis of each model etc was made public, then it would certainly make me for one believe certain graphs more or less.

The vast majority of people either don't need that level of data and would probably not understand it anyhow. We know a Trident missile is capable of delivering nuclear payloads to precise targets or our mobile phones can send a message to someone in New Zealand in seconds but do we need the detailed information to believe it happens. I guess it's down to whether we believe the scenario we are presented or whether we think there is some form of conspiracy working to somehow destroy the world economy and people's freedoms or not.

 

[robinthehood]

Honest to goodness. Just heard that the Sunday Times reported yesterday that the NHS App has had a sensitivity setting incorrectly set and that as a result thousands will have not been contacted by Track & Trace... been known for a month apparently.

I also learnt, and simply point out for those who are not aware and ask for no discussion - that our vaccine task force is headed by a venture capitalist who has no experience in vaccines and is married to a conservative minister...I'm sorry but...oh yes - and that task force head disclosed officially sensitive documents to a

The graphs also - usefully for me - showed the uncertainty associated with the 'consensus' likely trajectory (as was shown by a shaded area). I am thinking that the lower and upper bounds of uncertainty will have been arrived at (at least partly) through different modelling scenarios investigated by different groups ding the modelling, where different assumptions were made. The key point for me was that the lower bound for each 'outcome' modelled was still on an exponential growth trajectory - albeit lagging the 'consensus'.

I read that too , the distance sensitivity is to be changed.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

I agree with 99% of what you put, I’m not sure how you can state the bit in bold as the “let it rip” scenario is also the worst case scenario.

As for the vaccine, the Government Head of Vaccine’s stated last week to the US Venture Capitalists all over 50’s will have access to a Vaccine by easter. Surely this is a massive statement that should be highlighted.

Sorry if I implied I think that is the worst case scenario, I just saw it as the most horrible.

There is quite a bit of different details being leaked about vaccines and so far all promising, in terms of timings etc. Really looking forward to the efficiency questions(severness of disease and/or how many get protected from various age ranges, fingers crossed and many reasons to believe it is going to much more effective than say the flu vaccine, probably unlikely to be the magic 95% vaccine first off, but some in my family would take any vaccine even if only 50% as an extra card/protection)

 

[Old Skier]

Professor from Oxford University just been on BBC news stating that the figures are being over exaggerated in Europe, that’s ok then, all’s goods. Just the sort of message the media should be passing on, no wonder people are ignoring the advise.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I read that too , the distance sensitivity is to be changed.

Oops - I didn't mean to post about the App and head of vaccine task force on this thread.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

The vast majority of people either don't need that level of data and would probably not understand it anyhow. We know a Trident missile is capable of delivering nuclear payloads to precise targets or our mobile phones can send a message to someone in New Zealand in seconds but do we need the detailed information to believe it happens. I guess it's down to whether we believe the scenario we are presented or whether we think there is some form of conspiracy working to somehow destroy the world economy and people's freedoms or not.

You seem to love conspiracy theories or believing people believe in them, but do not mis read my questioning or wanting openness to be that. It is certainly not that. And trying to shut down people with that outlook, does not help. Not sure if you think that?

You may wish to just believe in X, but I like to question and learn. Always have, always will, its in my nature. Off to do some work.