Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Old Skier]

Sweden is not the beacon I think you believe it is, yes they may be above the UK in certain aspects, but it’s by no means a success.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/sweden-coronavirus-response-experiment

“As of October 21, Sweden stood 15th on the grim global ranking list of Covid-19 deaths per capita, and fifth in Europe, below only Belgium, Italy, Spain, and UK.”

Maybe a quick straw poll on here to see if anyone would like to see us follows Sweden’s example of not admitting anyone over 80 with Covid-19 to an ICU?

Yes the damage will be hideous, yes it will take years to recover, but there will be a bigger cost if it overwhelms the NHS and costs even more lives from every type of illness not just Covid.

I couldn’t afford the beer.

 

[Slab]

You need all the public to buy into the policies, to help maximum complying.

Therefore most data should be made public, including the basis of each of the models etc.

My personal opinion(and I suppose it would be, as I like to ask questions, used to be like it at school, though all studying and even still now) and if the basis of each model etc was made public, then it would certainly make me for one believe certain graphs more or less.

Maybe this is just semantics. road2ruin appeared to be suggesting the data be made available so that a wider pot of experts could give additional opinions that could be made public, I'm saying the the data itself doesn't need to be made public for that to happen

I'd actually go so far as to offer an opinion that the 'public' are the very last people the data should be released to, its way way too dangerous to let Joe & Janet Public loose with data like that

 

[pendodave]

Professor from Oxford University just been on BBC news stating that the figures are being over exaggerated in Europe, that’s ok then, all’s goods. Just the sort of message the media should be passing on, no wonder people are ignoring the advise.

I'm curious why you think that suppressing information is to be encouraged. I would suggest that more openness and discussion about the data on which current policies are based would be a good thing.
This is not so much the thin and of the wedge as the fat end!
There are plenty of examples in many different fields of calamitous decisions being taken or pursued because relevant information was not made available because it suited someone sonewhere...

 

[road2ruin]

Maybe this is just semantics. road2ruin appeared to be suggesting the data be made available so that a wider pot of experts could give additional opinions that could be made public, I'm saying the the data itself doesn't need to be made public for that to happen

I'd actually go so far as to offer an opinion that the 'public' are the very last people the data should be released to, its way way too dangerous to let Joe & Janet Public loose with data like that

What I am sceptical about is the worst case scenarios that SAGE keep putting out seem to be extraordinarily pessimistic, their worse case scenario gets worse and worse. I appreciate things are coming into winter and the cases were always going to rise but I would like others to see the data on what SAGE are basing their decisions on. So what's the new information? Why have the forecasts become so much worse? That sort of thing.

 

[road2ruin]

What I am sceptical about is the worst case scenarios that SAGE keep putting out seem to be extraordinarily pessimistic, their worse case scenario gets worse and worse. I appreciate things are coming into winter and the cases were always going to rise but I would like others to see the data on what SAGE are basing their decisions on. So what's the new information? Why have the forecasts become so much worse? That sort of thing.

This article for example...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-have-no-10s-covid-forecasts-changed-so-much

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Professor from Oxford University just been on BBC news stating that the figures are being over exaggerated in Europe, that’s ok then, all’s goods. Just the sort of message the media should be passing on, no wonder people are ignoring the advise.

And to complicate things further we also hear that 'you know who' is back on the scene and strongly punting 'protect vulnerable and let it rip'. I fear that that is not going to help levels of compliance...

 

[Imurg]

Just sitting, waiting for the well olied machine that is the DVSA, a machine that runs slower than a sundial, to make a decision as to whether I have to go to work or not....
I'd already cancelled today to rest my knee but tomorrow and onwards lessons are on hold until......God knows when.
Its going to be an enormous PITA if tests and lessons get suspended but it is what it is...I just wish they could move a bit quicker.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

What I am sceptical about is the worst case scenarios that SAGE keep putting out seem to be extraordinarily pessimistic, their worse case scenario gets worse and worse. I appreciate things are coming into winter and the cases were always going to rise but I would like others to see the data on what SAGE are basing their decisions on. So what's the new information? Why have the forecasts become so much worse? That sort of thing.

You'll see from the graphs that the lower bound of uncertainty around the consensus 'most likely' is also on what looks to be an exponential growth trajectory. And the lowest bound is likely to be the 'best case' scenario.

 

[Old Skier]

I'm curious why you think that suppressing information is to be encouraged. I would suggest that more openness and discussion about the data on which current policies are based would be a good thing.
This is not so much the thin and of the wedge as the fat end!
There are plenty of examples in many different fields of calamitous decisions being taken or pursued because relevant information was not made available because it suited someone sonewhere...

Is it suppressing information, don’t know if you saw it but it sounded more like a COVID denier. I supposed that those that want to can use whatever bit of “facts” they wish to enable them to follow the selective rules they want to. Many on here think the shut down of golf is wrong so let’s ignore the advice and just go out and play.

 

[Old Skier]

And to complicate things further we also hear that 'you know who' is back on the scene and strongly punting 'protect vulnerable and let it rip'. I fear that that is not going to help levels of compliance...

Who do you mean, not heard anyone punting for anything. Any chance on a link or do I need fact checker.

 

[Slab]

What I am sceptical about is the worst case scenarios that SAGE keep putting out seem to be extraordinarily pessimistic, their worse case scenario gets worse and worse. I appreciate things are coming into winter and the cases were always going to rise but I would like others to see the data on what SAGE are basing their decisions on. So what's the new information? Why have the forecasts become so much worse? That sort of thing.

I get that but I still think the public are not equipped to read data in order to provide alternate projections. The appointed experts kinda have to go with worst case to a large extent (imagine if they went middle of the road and things were a fair bit worse!)


lets remember your average forummer (who I’d willingly describe as having an average IQ) cant even choose a shirt, hat or ball without seeking multiple opinions on here.
They have dozens of websites of data, including technical data, to direct them in their choice/course of action on which shoe to buy and we end up asking some bloke who typically spends half his day arguing about last night’s football… no for me the public (& I include the media in this) should not be given the data.

In this respect ‘the public’ = thick as mince

 

[robinthehood]

Just sitting, waiting for the well olied machine that is the DVSA, a machine that runs slower than a sundial, to make a decision as to whether I have to go to work or not....
I'd already cancelled today to rest my knee but tomorrow and onwards lessons are on hold until......God knows when.
Its going to be an enormous PITA if tests and lessons get suspended but it is what it is...I just wish they could move a bit quicker.

They are slow like L drivers ?

 

[Imurg]

They are slow like L drivers ?

Believe me..some of the hardest work I do is trying to slow some of these kids down.....
Some are quite capable of making 30mph feel like 90.

 

[robinthehood]

Believe me..some of the hardest work I do is trying to slow some of these kids down.....
Some are quite capable of making 30mph feel like 90.

I do feel happier that my son's car has a telematics box keeping on the speed limits in his first year of driving.

 

[Ethan]

I fear we are or have already passed the point of collateral damage being worse and it isn't really being discussed in all of this.

I agree complete lockdowns work, either we should either eliminate and lock borders or we need to look at the whole picture what we are doing currently is madness.


Just think about some of these statistics, the collateral damage is massive and we need to start acting for the bigger picture :-

March to August ..3.3 million fewer GP referrals to consultants for Outpatient apts. 62,000 are estimated to be for urgent cancer concerns. 7.6% will die

504 children denied radiotherapy

603 children denied heart surgery

12,000 secondary cancer referrals lost

62,000 urgent cancer referrals lost

350,000 suspected cancers missed

107,000 breast surgeries delayed

27 million gp apts lost

Cardillac attendances at A&E a massive dip during last lock down

9% increase in domestic violence reported cases during lockdown. April to June 2020.

107,102 fewer Gynaecology consultation episodes completed during lockdown April to August 2020. Down 46.8%

25,000 less children received psychiatry this year than last.

131,000 clinical Oncology appointments lost to lockdowns so far.

94,000 lost Adult Mental illness appointments since April 2020.

31,441 deaths in England from other causes have disappeared since last year


Non direct deaths, more economic stuff

350,000 young peoples jobs lost 1.5 million jobs lost

Been proved many times low wealth/bad performing economy leads to more deaths and earlier deaths



If you are willing to look about, there is plenty more terrible data like the above, the fall out of this is enormous by taking the half hearted approach, either lock down properly or manage spread far better and direct to younger generations.

What are your sources for those, and what is the clinical meaning of emotive terms like "denied"?

 

[Ethan]

Professor from Oxford University just been on BBC news stating that the figures are being over exaggerated in Europe, that’s ok then, all’s goods. Just the sort of message the media should be passing on, no wonder people are ignoring the advise.

Heneghan or Gupta?

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Maybe this is just semantics. road2ruin appeared to be suggesting the data be made available so that a wider pot of experts could give additional opinions that could be made public, I'm saying the the data itself doesn't need to be made public for that to happen

I'd actually go so far as to offer an opinion that the 'public' are the very last people the data should be released to, its way way too dangerous to let Joe & Janet Public loose with data like that

Id be happy with that, just some proper independent reviewing and summarising, as you say the real detailed stuff is in the main over the top.

Here is someone I read, seems to think about things fairly calmly etc and made a post earlier about model predictions that had only be made about 2 week ago:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1323214427076857858

 

[Slab]

^^^^^^^^^^^

Unfortunately I have an (unfair and illogical) low opinion of anyone who chooses to communicate important information via twitter. Just can’t take it seriously, might as well release a tiktok video

 

[Old Skier]

Heneghan or Gupta?

Not Gupta, isn’t he Exeter? Missed the name unfortunately.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

^^^^^^^^^^^

Unfortunately I have an (unfair and illogical) low opinion of anyone who chooses to communicate important information via twitter. Just can’t take it seriously, might as well release a tiktok video

What other means could he use, facebook but get your point Still doesn't make the data wrong.

Whats interesting if you read all the posts to date, is how the posts have gone, he is also being slightly naughty about the data he decided to show. Hence why you have to look beyond one persons view and conclude your own (right or wrong that that is, in other peoples opinions).