Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Deleted member 1147]

Her mate phoned to check on her this afternoon, & Mrs BiM said that we probably wouldn't be coming even if the PCR was negative because of her Mum & the risk involved. Her mate was very grateful; she was obviously concerned about her Mum, but didn't want to upset us by asking us not to come.

Responsible thing done this evening; Premier Inn booking cancelled.

Hope you and Mrs Munich are both ok, Richard ?

 

[Blue in Munich]

Hope you and Mrs Munich are both ok, Richard ?

Thanks James, her PCR is done and we await the response, I meanwhile am still returning negative LFTs ?

 

[road2ruin]

Thanks James, her PCR is done and we await the response, I meanwhile am still returning negative LFTs ?

I wonder whether the new variant is managing to escape the LFT tests? I have a couple of friends who are presently isolating, they had 3-4 negative LFT's but a PCR came back as positive, same for both of them. The odd thing though is that despite both variants being highly transmittable only one person in each household as got it (4 in one household and 6 in another), they are 6 days in and you'd have thought the others would have got it as well!!

 

[Billysboots]

I wonder whether the new variant is managing to escape the LFT tests? I have a couple of friends who are presently isolating, they had 3-4 negative LFT's but a PCR came back as positive, same for both of them. The odd thing though is that despite both variants being highly transmittable only one person in each household as got it (4 in one household and 6 in another), they are 6 days in and you'd have thought the others would have got it as well!!

We’ve had two separate occurrences of Covid in our household - me in April 2020 and my daughter this summer. On both occasions the other three in the house escaped unscathed despite us mixing at home.

 

[ColchesterFC]

I wonder whether the new variant is managing to escape the LFT tests? I have a couple of friends who are presently isolating, they had 3-4 negative LFT's but a PCR came back as positive, same for both of them. The odd thing though is that despite both variants being highly transmittable only one person in each household as got it (4 in one household and 6 in another), they are 6 days in and you'd have thought the others would have got it as well!!

We’ve had two separate occurrences of Covid in our household - me in April 2020 and my daughter this summer. On both occasions the other three in the house escaped unscathed despite us mixing at home.

It does seem strange how the infections happen. My younger son brought it home from school. He tested positive on the Monday with LFT and had it confirmed by PCR, and the other three of us were taking daily LFTs. I tested positive on the Saturday and Mrs Colch on the following Monday both confirmed with PCRs. My older son then had a positive LFT on the Weds, which was the strongest return out of all of us, yet tested negative on the PCR and has continued to test negative since then.

The only thing we could think was that we weren't very strict on the two of us distancing from our younger son, it seems a bit unfair to do that to a 10 year old, but the older boy who is 12 naturally distances himself by spending a lot of time in his room chatting to mates on his PS4 so managed to avoid it.

 

[Billysboots]

It does seem strange how the infections happen. My younger son brought it home from school. He tested positive on the Monday with LFT and had it confirmed by PCR, and the other three of us were taking daily LFTs. I tested positive on the Saturday and Mrs Colch on the following Monday both confirmed with PCRs. My older son then had a positive LFT on the Weds, which was the strongest return out of all of us, yet tested negative on the PCR and has continued to test negative since then.

The only thing we could think was that we weren't very strict on the two of us distancing from our younger son, it seems a bit unfair to do that to a 10 year old, but the older boy who is 12 naturally distances himself by spending a lot of time in his room chatting to mates on his PS4 so managed to avoid it.

The fact that my wife didn’t catch it from me gave me ample reason to persuade her that we clearly weren’t spending enough “quality time” together. Make of that what you will ??

 

[Ethan]

god forbid that could be seen as anything positive. Time to lock us down!

Paul - you really should try a bit harder to come up with something original, or failing that, at least considered. Even you must understand the basic principles that it is wise to apply caution to emerging events of unknown magnitude by now, and if you don't, I doubt you ever will. And I bet you would be among the first to get out your pitchfork and noose if they got it badly wrong in the other direction, though.

 

[drdel]

Paul - you really should try a bit harder to come up with something original, or failing that, at least considered. Even you must understand the basic principles that it is wise to apply caution to emerging events of unknown magnitude by now, and if you don't, I doubt you ever will. And I bet you would be among the first to get out your pitchfork and noose if they got it badly wrong in the other direction, though.

When anything affects my or any of my family's health I find the 'precautionary principles' works well. If you get it wrong at least you'll still be around to change you thinking

 

[PNWokingham]

Paul - you really should try a bit harder to come up with something original, or failing that, at least considered. Even you must understand the basic principles that it is wise to apply caution to emerging events of unknown magnitude by now, and if you don't, I doubt you ever will. And I bet you would be among the first to get out your pitchfork and noose if they got it badly wrong in the other direction, though.

original? I was pointing out your completely one-sided snub of something that most people would see as hopeful and maybe even a decent positive from a country more advanced on the omicron wave than we are. Caution is fine but it needs facts to go along with spurious models and as far as i can see there is not enough negative evidence to condem us to a post-vaccine lockdown. That may change. The government clearly took the doomsday models seriosuly but balance of opinion came down on the side of needing much more proof between infections and hospitalisations and, further, between hospitalisations and deaths - the link of which is supposed to be severaly curtailed by vaccinations. And Sage said that infections were likely way higher than official stats. There is already a significant drop off in sales for the hospitality sector that has been whacked over the past 2 years (40% down in revenue since 2019). To see the data from South Africa was very encouraging but in no way conclusive of what may still happen there or here. Biden is similarly not expected to take any lockdown actions in hius speach today (if he can remember what he is supposed to say)!

Weekly deaths with covid in the UK are now at a 2 month low (since w/e Oct 15) - and we have had omicron for at least a month or more. Again, encouraging. All in all - we have massive infections of a varient that could be less severe than Delta - nothing proven but encouraging signs from the country most advanced with this new varient - and that is not the same as looking back at what Alpha and delta did pre vaccine.

 

[PNWokingham]

When anything affects my or any of my family's health I find the 'precautionary principles' works well. If you get it wrong at least you'll still be around to change you thinking

and most people are being cautious - and everyone is free to do so - it doesn't mean we take the jump to legally enforced lockdowns and only focus on all the nagatives of models from people that have been proven to be vastly wrong in the past and which everyone i have heard believe are extremely unlikely now

 

[IanM]

Just speaking to next door neighbour as she came home from shift at GW Hospital on Swindon.

93% of those in Intensive Care there with covid, are unvaxinated. Most will survive but not all will. (She didn't say the mix of new variant and old)

Draw from that what you will.

 

[Deleted member 1147]

Just speaking to next door neighbour as she came home from shift at GW Hospital on Swindon.

93% of those in Intensive Care there with covid, are unvaxinated. Most will survive but not all will. (She didn't say the mix of new variant and old)

Draw from that what you will.

Covid has taken over from smoking, as the main cause of statistics!

 

[Ethan]

original? I was pointing out your completely one-sided snub of something that most people would see as hopeful and maybe even a decent positive from a country more advanced on the omicron wave than we are. Caution is fine but it needs facts to go along with spurious models and as far as i can see there is not enough negative evidence to condem us to a post-vaccine lockdown. That may change. The government clearly took the doomsday models seriosuly but balance of opinion came down on the side of needing much more proof between infections and hospitalisations and, further, between hospitalisations and deaths - the link of which is supposed to be severaly curtailed by vaccinations. And Sage said that infections were likely way higher than official stats. There is already a significant drop off in sales for the hospitality sector that has been whacked over the past 2 years (40% down in revenue since 2019). To see the data from South Africa was very encouraging but in no way conclusive of what may still happen there or here. Biden is similarly not expected to take any lockdown actions in hius speach today (if he can remember what he is supposed to say)!

Weekly deaths with covid in the UK are now at a 2 month low (since w/e Oct 15) - and we have had omicron for at least a month or more. Again, encouraging. All in all - we have massive infections of a varient that could be less severe than Delta - nothing proven but encouraging signs from the country most advanced with this new varient - and that is not the same as looking back at what Alpha and delta did pre vaccine.

Your post is littered with hyperbolic stuff like 'spurious models', 'condemn us' 'doomsday models'. That does not suggest a fair-minded consideration of any of this stuff. As others have said before, South Africa is not a great model. I seem to remember many here, possibly including you, disparaging international comparisons when it came to case rates, perhaps that has changed now that the narrative works better.

The problem with forecasting is that the effects of getting it slightly wrong on the optimistic side and slightly wrong on the pessimistic side do not result in the same number of fewer or more cases respectively. Losing control can mean that cases and control of the issue runs away from you fast. That is basically why the precautionary principle exists, because the uncertainties have to be built in as a pessimistic reserve. It is much harder to put the pandemic back in the box than to contain it better to start with.

I fail to see why people are up in arms right now. You are asked to wear a mask in the supermarket. Big deal. If that upsets anybody's sense of liberty, they need to catch a grip and wise up. Otherwise, you can go to the pub, eat out, go to the gym, play sport and pretty much do whatever you like.

Don't blame Chris Whitty for the effects on hospitality, blame John Redwood and Steve Baker. They, and people like them, stopped a more robust and faster response previously which would have reduced the adverse effect on hospitality. The 1919 Spanish flu showed that places that imposed controls fastest and strongest were able to lift them sooner and let their economies recover. And it may have saved a few lives and lungs too.

 

[PNWokingham]

Your post is littered with hyperbolic stuff like 'spurious models', 'condemn us' 'doomsday models'. That does not suggest a fair-minded consideration of any of this stuff. As others have said before, South Africa is not a great model. I seem to remember many here, possibly including you, disparaging international comparisons when it came to case rates, perhaps that has changed now that the narrative works better.

The problem with forecasting is that the effects of getting it slightly wrong on the optimistic side and slightly wrong on the pessimistic side do not result in the same number of fewer or more cases respectively. Losing control can mean that cases and control of the issue runs away from you fast. That is basically why the precautionary principle exists, because the uncertainties have to be built in as a pessimistic reserve. It is much harder to put the pandemic back in the box than to contain it better to start with.

I fail to see why people are up in arms right now. You are asked to wear a mask in the supermarket. Big deal. If that upsets anybody's sense of liberty, they need to catch a grip and wise up. Otherwise, you can go to the pub, eat out, go to the gym, play sport and pretty much do whatever you like.

Don't blame Chris Whitty for the effects on hospitality, blame John Redwood and Steve Baker. They, and people like them, stopped a more robust and faster response previously which would have reduced the adverse effect on hospitality. The 1919 Spanish flu showed that places that imposed controls fastest and strongest were able to lift them sooner and let their economies recover. And it may have saved a few lives and lungs too.

Your post is littered with hyperbolic stuff like 'spurious models', 'condemn us' 'doomsday models'. That does not suggest a fair-minded consideration of any of this stuff. As others have said before, South Africa is not a great model. I seem to remember many here, possibly including you, disparaging international comparisons when it came to case rates, perhaps that has changed now that the narrative works better.

The problem with forecasting is that the effects of getting it slightly wrong on the optimistic side and slightly wrong on the pessimistic side do not result in the same number of fewer or more cases respectively. Losing control can mean that cases and control of the issue runs away from you fast. That is basically why the precautionary principle exists, because the uncertainties have to be built in as a pessimistic reserve. It is much harder to put the pandemic back in the box than to contain it better to start with.

I fail to see why people are up in arms right now. You are asked to wear a mask in the supermarket. Big deal. If that upsets anybody's sense of liberty, they need to catch a grip and wise up. Otherwise, you can go to the pub, eat out, go to the gym, play sport and pretty much do whatever you like.

Don't blame Chris Whitty for the effects on hospitality, blame John Redwood and Steve Baker. They, and people like them, stopped a more robust and faster response previously which would have reduced the adverse effect on hospitality. The 1919 Spanish flu showed that places that imposed controls fastest and strongest were able to lift them sooner and let their economies recover. And it may have saved a few lives and lungs too.

no time for a big response here but want to emphasie the need for balance. You completely tried to quash any positivityy in the South African events. The vaccination rollout was supposed to give us the ability to cope with extra waves and there is far too little account taken of this in the extra-cautious rhetoric from certain media and scientists. Add to the vaccine rollout (and advanced booster jabs) all the lessons learn't from the first two waves and other drugs repurposed to help with treatments and new antiviral options. Unless there is much stronger evidence that this new varient is somethiong to be much more afraid of we need to continue to move towards living with seasonal covid and avoid compulsory restrictions. Be sensible, be cautious, especially if you have underlying conditions but time to carry on and live life in a balanced way. But be ready for change if it is needed by the evidence

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/new-covid-drug-answer-prayers/

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...hairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

 

[Ethan]

no time for a big response here but want to emphasie the need for balance. You completely tried to quash any positivityy in the South African events. The vaccination rollout was supposed to give us the ability to cope with extra waves and there is far too little account taken of this in the extra-cautious rhetoric from certain media and scientists. Add to the vaccine rollout (and advanced booster jabs) all the lessons learn't from the first two waves and other drugs repurposed to help with treatments and new antiviral options. Unless there is much stronger evidence that this new varient is somethiong to be much more afraid of we need to continue to move towards living with seasonal covid and avoid compulsory restrictions. Be sensible, be cautious, especially if you have underlying conditions but time to carry on and live life in a balanced way. But be ready for change if it is needed by the evidence

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/new-covid-drug-answer-prayers/

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...hairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

That is the problem. By the time you get the evidence, it is too late to respond.

And as I said, this is not a symmetrically balanced question. The hazards of getting it wrong by being too optimistic are much greater than the hazards of getting it wrong on the pessimistic side. Balance is fine if you understand the margins and can accurately predict the effect of interventions. We can't.

And did I miss the data showing that Covid is now a seasonal infection? It may become so in due course, but we are not there yet.

 

[PNWokingham]

That is the problem. By the time you get the evidence, it is too late to respond.

And as I said, this is not a symmetrically balanced question. The hazards of getting it wrong by being too optimistic are much greater than the hazards of getting it wrong on the pessimistic side. Balance is fine if you understand the margins and can accurately predict the effect of interventions. We can't.

And did I miss the data showing that Covid is now a seasonal infection? It may become so in due course, but we are not there yet.

we do not have the money to stomach closing down on model assumptions that many believe completely one sided after the £400_bn hit we have already taken from Covid. And that is, likewise, not a symmetrical statement. We (UK and the rest of the world)are in a dire state with finances and the covid-induced global inflation that is rampaging and is going to give the world economy another substatntail kick in the aris over the coming couple of years.

 

[Foxholer]

Weekly deaths with covid in the UK are now at a 2 month low (since w/e Oct 15) - and we have had omicron for at least a month or more. Again, encouraging. All in all - we have massive infections of a varient that could be less severe than Delta - nothing proven but encouraging signs from the country most advanced with this new varient - and that is not the same as looking back at what Alpha and delta did pre vaccine.

I'd be more inclined to believe it's the massive increase in the percentage that have had the booster that have reduced the deaths. From 67.9/6.4 (2 jabs/Booster) on 16 Oct to 70.5/42.3 on 19 Dec. Definitely encouraging whatever the reason though.

And I believe it's a case of 'diplomacy' by govt about what, if anything, more to do now and after Christmas (or even New Year). With all the media fuss about their own (possible) ignoring of rules, I think there's a belief that lockdowns now would be widely ignored/ineffective and certainly criticised by much of the hospitality industry (who have to obey). Completely different story post festive period though.

 

[Foxholer]

we do not have the money to stomach closing down on model assumptions that many believe completely one sided after the £400_bn hit we have already taken from Covid. And that is, likewise, not a symmetrical statement. We (UK and the rest of the world)are in a dire state with finances and the covid-induced global inflation that is rampaging and is going to give the world economy another substatntail kick in the aris over the coming couple of years.

It'll be much worse if we (and others) err on the 'it'll be ok/positive' side than the 'let's make sure it's sorted/negative' one!

 

[D-S]

Interesting comments from the Cardiff manager today, saying fans can’t attend their Boxing Day match even though they would have had to produce vaccine passport or proof of negative test, however they will be thronging to the shops with no restrictions in the City Centre instead. Also, as it stands, their supporters can attend away matches (except for their nearest one Swansea City).
I think we’re going to be back in anomaly time.

 

[Ethan]

we do not have the money to stomach closing down on model assumptions that many believe completely one sided after the £400_bn hit we have already taken from Covid. And that is, likewise, not a symmetrical statement. We (UK and the rest of the world)are in a dire state with finances and the covid-induced global inflation that is rampaging and is going to give the world economy another substatntail kick in the aris over the coming couple of years.

Don't forget the other hand grenade thrown into the UK economy.

I maintain that your view that this is a choice between public health measures and the economy is simplistic and wrong-headed. The economies will not recover until Covid is beaten. There is an inverse correlation between how well countries have tackled Covid and the economic effect on their economies. Countries that tackled the public health measures well have suffered less. This is a joint health and economic crisis, and they most be tackled together, not trading off one against the other.