Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Old Skier]

Your missing the trick, tory MP’s + Labour MP’s is enough to get a GE and as he’s not getting one (simple maths) it’s Labours fault, but when you use simple maths to show TM’s deal would of got through had she had tory support on it’s own, you get the bad deal and Labours fault again excuse.

So it’s never the tories fault.

Nobody can deny that elements in the Tory party cocked it up but they needed others in parliament to get involved and get involved they did.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Nobody can deny that elements in the Tory party cocked it up but they needed others in parliament to get involved and get involved they did.

Come on mate, with hindsight TM started this by calling a GE and then it just went downhill from there.
We were 2 years down the road before she brought her deal to Parliament and she didn’t even have all of her own party supporting her.
It was a shambles way before other elements got involved.

 

[Grant85]

well well well... so after 1 week facing the scrutiny of elected representatives, Boris has decided enough is enough, and has packed up the whole place for 5 weeks.

In terms of Boris's week last week, surely no strategy involved it going as badly as that;
* the threat of removal of the whip still resulting in the loss of 21 (now 22) Tory MPs
* his brother not being able to stomach things and packing it in
* the opposition denying him the early election
* being put under so much pressure by MPs and journalists at every opportunity (and generally not coping well enough on those occasions)

It's clear now Boris's strategy was to go to the country on 15th October as the voice of the most pro-Brexit political force, with the Brexit Party standing down. Winning a lot of pro-Brexit seats from Labour and possibly holding onto a few coin tosses by playing on the Corbyn factor to middle or higher income remainers. Also banking on Lib Dems being strong enough to stop Labour winning a few seats in remain areas and Tories to win a few 3 way marginals due to being the only pro Brexit candidate).

The arithmetic is tricky, but it's entirely possible he could have won a comfortable majority on 35% of the vote. (assuming votes were split Con 35%, Lab 30%, Lib Debs 20, others 15%).
Blair won a majority of around 60 seats in 2005 with a 35 / 32 / 22 split for the 3 main UK parties (albeit that was with 40 odd Scottish seats).

He could then have gone to the EU that week and claimed to have a clear mandate for No Deal on 31st October and threatened very plausibly to pull that trigger if a better deal was not forthcoming. Not sure if this would have worked, but it's possible. At the very least, even in the event of No Deal happening, he has 5 years in office with a reasonable majority to try and reduce the impact of No Deal and create a completely different narrative in 5 years time.

Now, it is more likely there will be an election in November or December when he will have broken his 'no if's, no buts' 31st October promise. The Brexit Party will be less likely to stand candidates down and even the ideologues in his own party might have abandoned him. Also gives more time to the opposition to potentially agree a strategy in England & Wales not to split the pro-EU vote.

All in all, a very decent week for remain and we are potentially closer to a 2nd referendum with realistic choices on the ballot paper and a WHOLE lot more information for voters to make their mind up on.

 

[Old Skier]

Come on mate, with hindsight TM started this by calling a GE and then it just went downhill from there.
We were 2 years down the road before she brought her deal to Parliament and she didn’t even have all of her own party supporting her.
It was a shambles way before other elements got involved.

Agreed but what I cannot agree with is that people are ignoring (IMO) the fact that the whole Brexit farce has been continually blocked by the majority in Parliament who, whether for remain or political reasons have helped in the cluster muck.

 

[BubbaP]

Does anyone think that Tusk & Junker would allow a member state or two to block an extension?
Knowing how a block would look, I just can't see it.

 

[chrisd]

No and as pointed out by the mods, take it up with them and don't post in threads if you have some wacky a accusations to make.

I think I'm free to post when and where I choose thanks !

 

[spongebob59]

Does anyone think that Tusk & Junker would allow a member state or two to block an extension?
Knowing how a block would look, I just can't see it.

Are these two even in charge anymore?

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Agreed but what I cannot agree with is that people are ignoring (IMO) the fact that the whole Brexit farce has been continually blocked by the majority in Parliament who, whether for remain or political reasons have helped in the cluster muck.

The consensus of opinion is that TM’s Deal was a bad deal (BRINO) are you suggesting MP’s from all sides should of just voted for it so it was perceived as them carrying out the referendum result?

 

[spongebob59]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1171059607114043395

 

[Foxholer]

Come on mate, with hindsight TM started this by calling a GE and then it just went downhill from there.
We were 2 years down the road before she brought her deal to Parliament and she didn’t even have all of her own party supporting her.
It was a shambles way before other elements got involved.

Wrong!

Cameron started it by calling the Referendum!

May took over and realised she wouldn't be able to win votes with the slim majority she had, so called another election. That move backfired - badly!

The fact is that MPs are about as divided on the issue as the rest of the country, so it was always going to be a 'tough ask' to get legislation through! And the EU negotiators knew/know this, so adjust their approach accordingly.

No Deal, via Article 50's default, has always looked the most likely 'result' to me! And future negotiations will be just as difficult imo. EU will continue to insist on an arrangement that maintains their control of agenda and agreements!

 

[Old Skier]

The consensus of opinion is that TM’s Deal was a bad deal (BRINO) are you suggesting MP’s from all sides should of just voted for it so it was perceived as them carrying out the referendum result?

No, I'm suggested that you could have come up with any deal and I suspect it would have been rejected.

 

[Foxholer]

Are these two even in charge anymore?

Yes indeed!

President of European Council and European Commission resp.

 

[drdel]

Wrong!

Cameron started it by calling the Referendum!

May took over and realised she wouldn't be able to win votes with the slim majority she had, so called another election. That move backfired - badly!

The fact is that MPs are about as divided on the issue as the rest of the country, so it was always going to be a 'tough ask' to get legislation through! And the EU negotiators knew/know this, so adjust their approach accordingly.

No Deal, via Article 50's default, has always looked the most likely 'result' to me! And future negotiations will be just as difficult imo. EU will continue to insist on an arrangement that maintains their control of agenda and agreements!

Not forgetting the fact that a massive majority of the MPs supported Art50; a portion of the same MPs have now changed their minds.

And, a big majority asked BJ to become PM and now that same crowd have decided that they don't want him doing what he said he'd do - is it any wonder the guy will resort to the same underhand tactics?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Come on mate, with hindsight TM started this by calling a GE and then it just went downhill from there.
We were 2 years down the road before she brought her deal to Parliament and she didn’t even have all of her own party supporting her.
It was a shambles way before other elements got involved.

...and she compounded her error by painting her negotiating team into a corner by laying down her Red Lines. Right from the point she did that it was obvious to anyone who cared to look and to listen to what the EU were saying that she'd end up with the sort of deal she ended up with.

My mate and I want to buy a comic that costs five pence. If I start with three pennies but one is my brother's and he'll duff me up if I use it - and my mate has two pennies and he tells me he absolutely only has two pennies - no matter how hard we try - no matter how passionately or repeatedly I say that I want the sum to be five so we can buy the comic - no matter how much or how long we shuffle them about - we won't ever have five pennies - the sum will always be four unless I decide to use my brother's penny. Then we will have five pennies.

But my brother might well duff me up.

My mate could go and nick a penny out of his mum's purse - but that would cause him sooo much trouble that he has decided that it just wouldn't be worth it - he'd rather us not have the comic and keep on his mum's side.

I still think he should go and nick a penny rather than me risk getting duffed up by my brother,

 

[Deleted member 1147]

Not forgetting the fact that a massive majority of the MPs supported Art50; a portion of the same MPs have now changed their minds.

And, a big majority asked BJ to become PM and now that same crowd have decided that they don't want him doing what he said he'd do - is it any wonder the guy will resort to the same underhand tactics?

I cannot fully recollect, was the negotiating with the EU allowed to begin without Article 50 being triggered?

 

[SocketRocket]

Come on mate, with hindsight TM started this by calling a GE and then it just went downhill from there.
We were 2 years down the road before she brought her deal to Parliament and she didn’t even have all of her own party supporting her.
It was a shambles way before other elements got involved.

No one is supporting Mays strategy and no one is saying Conservative MPs are not to share blame on Brexit not being delivered. What many people are complaining about is MPs of all parties are working against the referendum result even though they said they would respect it. Oh, and that includes Labour MPs.

 

[SocketRocket]

I cannot fully recollect, was the negotiating with the EU allowed to begin without Article 50 being triggered?

It wasn't allowed to begin before A50 was triggered.

 

[Foxholer]

Not forgetting the fact that a massive majority of the MPs supported Art50; a portion of the same MPs have now changed their minds.
...

I'm not sure they have changed their minds; they just don't like the 'current direction' of No Deal.

And Boris probably seemed the 'best choice' (or at least 2nd best, so had to be 1 of the 2 offered to Party members) after May resigned, another situation that was 'forced on them'!

 

[Fade and Die]

...and she compounded her error by painting her negotiating team into a corner by laying down her Red Lines. Right from the point she did that it was obvious to anyone who cared to look and to listen to what the EU were saying that she'd end up with the sort of deal she ended up with.

My mate and I want to buy a comic that costs five pence. If I start with three pennies but one is my brother's and he'll duff me up if I use it - and my mate has two pennies and he tells me he absolutely only has two pennies - no matter how hard we try - no matter how passionately or repeatedly I say that I want the sum to be five so we can buy the comic - no matter how much or how long we shuffle them about - we won't ever have five pennies - the sum will always be four unless I decide to use my brother's penny. Then we will have five pennies.

But my brother might well duff me up.

My mate could go and nick a penny out of his mum's purse - but that would cause him sooo much trouble that he has decided that it just wouldn't be worth it - he'd rather us not have the comic and keep on his mum's side.

I still think he should go and nick a penny rather than me risk getting duffed up by my brother,

Yes very relevant, thank you.🤯

 

[SocketRocket]

...and she compounded her error by painting her negotiating team into a corner by laying down her Red Lines. Right from the point she did that it was obvious to anyone who cared to look and to listen to what the EU were saying that she'd end up with the sort of deal she ended up with.

My mate and I want to buy a comic that costs five pence. If I start with three pennies but one is my brother's and he'll duff me up if I use it - and my mate has two pennies and he tells me he absolutely only has two pennies - no matter how hard we try - no matter how passionately or repeatedly I say that I want the sum to be five so we can buy the comic - no matter how much or how long we shuffle them about - we won't ever have five pennies - the sum will always be four unless I decide to use my brother's penny. Then we will have five pennies.

But my brother might well duff me up.

My mate could go and nick a penny out of his mum's purse - but that would cause him sooo much trouble that he has decided that it just wouldn't be worth it - he'd rather us not have the comic and keep on his mum's side.

I still think he should go and nick a penny rather than me risk getting duffed up by my brother,

Why don't you and your mate join forces, duff up your brother then buy the comic. Thats what MPs are doing now.