Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SocketRocket]

So our fearless leader has said we will leave on Halloween .. so a simple question, when the dust has settled and we have taken control (whatever that means). What is the glorious future we await?

We will still have to adhere to EU regulations if we want to trade with the EU (same as what we do with US at the moment)

Is Freedom of Movement the only thing that we will control?

The farmers and fisheries guys we’re an intrinsic part of the referendum but all now claim that they stand to lose!! We now have a magic money tree for NHS (even before leaving)

If everyone claims they are going to lose, who is to gain from us leaving?

Who said the future will be glorious? It will be our future and a future we can make of what we work for, no one else's just ours, good or bad our own.

We will only need to abide by trading standards just like all other countries in the world do, nothing special just the same way any other independant nation does, also like countries trading with us will have to do. We will no longer be subservent to the ECJ, our own justice system will be supreme.

Freedom of movement is just something special to the EU, no other country insists you have to allow their citizens the right to enter your country and stay so you can trade with them. Just imagine how that would work. We don't want to stop immigration, just control it such that it works in our interest as a country.

Farmers are never happy, never have been, never will be but you will never see one on a bike. We need to make better use of our own produce rather than import it where we dont need to. Fishermen are concerned we will sell them out in exchange for a trade deal, just like Maybot was planning to do.

We have heard all the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the socialites regarding austerity and how unnecessary it is. Now Boris is prepared to start spending its decryed as wrong. Make your minds up please!

Some may prefer to remain and that's their prerogative, it doesn't make them stupid though but one would hope they would still have an understanding that their view isnt necessarily the prevailing one and be able to show a modicum of reality and balance.

 

[jp5]

So Boris' big idea seems to be wanting an EU country to abide by ours laws over theirs. Genius.

 

[SocketRocket]

So Boris' big idea seems to be wanting an EU country to abide by ours laws over theirs. Genius.

Is it?

 

[Old Skier]

So Boris' big idea seems to be wanting an EU country to abide by ours laws over theirs. Genius.

Which EU country is this?

 

[Taz]

One of the staunchest defenders of Theresa May’s deal has waded into the Backstop debate… on the side of Boris Johnson. For hacks who have endured months of Gibb’s impassioned defence of the agreement, this may come as a bit of a surprise…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1164108145339392002

 

[drdel]

I see Scotland is running the largest deficit in EU at 7% GDP. well ahead of Cyprus at 4.5.

The overspend of about £2,500 per person is obviously the fault of Brexit! Sturgeon/SNP clearly wants the EU to cough up the £12bn pa. I guess she hasn't read the EU's recession risks and falling Exports or the ECB's plan on restructuring due to the EU being an export led economy.

 

[drdel]

One of the staunchest defenders of Theresa May’s deal has waded into the Backstop debate… on the side of Boris Johnson. For hacks who have endured months of Gibb’s impassioned defence of the agreement, this may come as a bit of a surprise…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1164108145339392002

I think logic long left the building. Juncker's had gall bladder surgery and so the EU's decision-making (such as it is) has stopped!

 

[ColchesterFC]

All the talk at the minute seems to be about the backstop. Perhaps someone could explain why the EU are unwilling to remove it. Ireland have said they will not put up a hard border in Ireland. The UK have said there will be no hard border even in the event of no deal. The EU have said they won't put up a hard border even if there is no deal. And yet the EU say that the backstop is essential to avoid a hard border. If none of the parties are going to put up a hard border in the event of no deal why do we need the backstop to remain in the agreement?

 

[drdel]

All the talk at the minute seems to be about the backstop. Perhaps someone could explain why the EU are unwilling to remove it. Ireland have said they will not put up a hard border in Ireland. The UK have said there will be no hard border even in the event of no deal. The EU have said they won't put up a hard border even if there is no deal. And yet the EU say that the backstop is essential to avoid a hard border. If none of the parties are going to put up a hard border in the event of no deal why do we need the backstop to remain in the agreement?

We can't open because 'we' wrote it and don't want to! The sop of a reason is demonstrable control and Tax. After 2 world wars and several decades of membership the EU doesn't trust the UK to collect/monitor cross border activity.

The G7 meet tomorrow. That's Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Of these '7' Italy and France are in serious financial bother and Germany is doing its best to join them. Juncker's is not attending for medical reasons but I'm at a loss to see his 'country' on the list !!!

 

[robinthehood]

We can't open because 'we' wrote it and don't want to! The sop of a reason is demonstrable control and Tax. After 2 world wars and several decades of membership the EU doesn't trust the UK to collect/monitor cross border activity.

The G7 meet tomorrow. That's Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Of these '7' Italy and France are in serious financial bother and Germany is doing its best to join them. Juncker's is not attending for medical reasons but I'm at a loss to see his 'country' on the list !!!

You forgot the world cup 😉

 

[Lord Tyrion]

All the talk at the minute seems to be about the backstop. Perhaps someone could explain why the EU are unwilling to remove it. Ireland have said they will not put up a hard border in Ireland. The UK have said there will be no hard border even in the event of no deal. The EU have said they won't put up a hard border even if there is no deal. And yet the EU say that the backstop is essential to avoid a hard border. If none of the parties are going to put up a hard border in the event of no deal why do we need the backstop to remain in the agreement?

The phrase is 'retaining the integrity of the Single Market'. The EU don't want to be the ones who put up a border in Ireland as they know the sensitiivty of what that means. However they care even more about keeping the advantages of the single market only available to those who are members. If the UK leave and there are no borders to enforce tariffs then N.Ireland, potentially the whole UK, gains the benefits of being in the single market without paying in. Boris is arguing that you don't need borders, there are electronic ways of doing this but I think we have reached a point where people are sticking to principles rather than taking a step back and looking to be pragmatic

The EU will 100% put up a border to protect their closed market, it is less critical for the UK to protect against goods coming in from Ireland. We can play the good cop in this.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Surely the answer is to have a border between UK/Ireland and mainland Europe. A large % of Ireland's exports go to the UK and the vast majority of their imports and exports come through the UK. The EU will never agree to it but it's no different to them wanting a border between Ireland (the island) and the rest of the UK. Ireland's economy could go down the toilet in the event of a no deal exit if customs checks are implemented. The EU are already discussing suspending their rules on state aid to allow bailouts to affected Irish companies.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Their view, not unreasonable, is that it is the UK that wants to leave, why should the EU have to have one of its members disadvantaged by an aritifical border. I do wonder if the Conservatives had not been in hoc to the DUP whether they would have accepted the customs line down the Irish Sea? That would have unlocked this whole logjam.

 

[User62651]

Surely the answer is to have a border between UK/Ireland and mainland Europe. A large % of Ireland's exports go to the UK and the vast majority of their imports and exports come through the UK. The EU will never agree to it but it's no different to them wanting a border between Ireland (the island) and the rest of the UK. Ireland's economy could go down the toilet in the event of a no deal exit if customs checks are implemented. The EU are already discussing suspending their rules on state aid to allow bailouts to affected Irish companies.

That comes across like the old British colonial attitude, kind of arrogant, just saying. Whatever suits us and to heck with Ireland.

How can it be 'no different', they are in the EU, we're soon not to be?

Didn't Eire invest in some super ferries recently so they could, if needed, try and bypass the UK in terms of trading goods to and from the continent? They were clearly looking at that scenario and they know they are going to be dragged into and negatively affected with BJs Brexit. They will do what they can to reduce the reliance on the UK for goods to and from Eire but that can only go so far.
People will dig their heels in though, it will all be dressed up in diplomacy but they are and will not be looking to give UK any favours in this self-harming identity crisis the UK is going through. What lovely neighbours we are, drag others down with us and no doubt then try and turn the blame on them.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I have a relative who is involved in Brexit emergency planning at Government level.
He was asked by his father [a staunch Tory supporter] just how bad he thinks things will work out.
Supplies of food/medical/fuel will be catastrophic for at least 6 months was his reply.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Fuel is shipped into the UK in huge barges. By their nature they are slow and ponderous. They will leave Rotterdam, paperwork will be sent ahead, customs cleared, well before reaching the UK. They wont be arriving at Dover with overstretched customs officials dealing with it, fighting with a 1,00 lorries. The fuel issue is a red herring, it will be a priority product, we have large storage facilities, it is not fighting for attention at the ports where trouble will occur.

Medical, I'll be staggered if this has problems. Worst case they will fly it over but most tablets are not going to decay en route. If they take an extra few days on a lorry so what? People will order earlier, hold bigger stocks for a spell.

Food. This one could be interesting, largely for fresh produce. That can't be sat at customs but then the European food producers are not going to be happy with their stock going off and being rejected. They will either get on to their own govts to sort it out or we will just go back to having to use seasonal produce again. Ah the crisis, no avocado's in October.

Doon, why will fuel and medicines be catastrophic? What will happen that will cause supply issues for those products that will be so awful?

 

[Taz]

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-21...days-in-september-to-deliver-or-block-brexit/

 

[SocketRocket]

I have a relative who is involved in Brexit emergency planning at Government level.
He was asked by his father [a staunch Tory supporter] just how bad he thinks things will work out.
Supplies of food/medical/fuel will be catastrophic for at least 6 months was his reply.

'Catastrophic' Eh! I keep hearing this being used but its a grossly exaggerated term and used by those wanting to scare people. What exactly will this catastrophe be, a lettuce shortage, an average 4% increase in import tariffs that has been offset by currency fluctuations.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Fuel is shipped into the UK in huge barges. By their nature they are slow and ponderous. They will leave Rotterdam, paperwork will be sent ahead, customs cleared, well before reaching the UK. They wont be arriving at Dover with overstretched customs officials dealing with it, fighting with a 1,00 lorries. The fuel issue is a red herring, it will be a priority product, we have large storage facilities, it is not fighting for attention at the ports where trouble will occur.

Medical, I'll be staggered if this has problems. Worst case they will fly it over but most tablets are not going to decay en route. If they take an extra few days on a lorry so what? People will order earlier, hold bigger stocks for a spell.

Food. This one could be interesting, largely for fresh produce. That can't be sat at customs but then the European food producers are not going to be happy with their stock going off and being rejected. They will either get on to their own govts to sort it out or we will just go back to having to use seasonal produce again. Ah the crisis, no avocado's in October.

Doon, why will fuel and medicines be catastrophic? What will happen that will cause supply issues for those products that will be so awful?

Just passing on what a senior government civil servant involved in Brexit emergency planning told a close relative.
He said the first major problem will be and paper tissue products.
Cant use torn up newspapers now as only the over 70's buy them.

Buying cheap EU fuel will close down our UK refineries.
Many cases of short dated medical products not produced in the UK.
My wife's relatives say they are already struggling to find fresh food products in some SE England supermarkets.

The Zoomers wanted a good ol blighty blitz spirit, looks like BJ is going to deliver that.

 

[SocketRocket]

Just passing on what a senior government civil servant involved in Brexit emergency planning told a close relative.
He said the first major problem will be and paper tissue products.
Cant use torn up newspapers now as only the over 70's buy them.

Buying cheap EU fuel will close down our UK refineries.
Many cases of short dated medical products not produced in the UK.
My wife's relatives say they are already struggling to find fresh food products in some SE England supermarkets.

The Zoomers wanted a good ol blighty blitz spirit, looks like BJ is going to deliver that.

Thats such a stupid set of possibilities and exaggeration but I dont expect any different from the Doomer.