Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[drdel]

With a couple of hours to spare yesterday I had a good look at the Canada free trade deal(CETA), which includes services as well as goods. Its a very good deal, AND it is the deal that Tusk and Barnier also offered to the UK in the early days.

When you compare May's deal with the Canada deal, what on earth was she and Ollie Robbins doing in creating/promoting the abortion that is May's deal? I just can't believe the offer of a Canada version wasn't taken up. And if you have a read of David Davies' comments since resigning from the position of Brexit Secretary in which he also wanted a version of the Canada deal, tailored to the UK... I guess that's what you get when you get a Remainer PM who wanted a Brino.

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Yup, which is why a the 'No Deal ' phrase is such a red herring. There are numerous organisations like the CAA, UN, IMO and WTO which declare processes across the globe on how countries should interact. They are the default position. The UK will have a default agreement: any deal will simply revise these international agreements in a bilateral manner.

This is why when the EU asks the UK to specify what it wants its is impossible, as it was in the referendum, because these issues are not just a trade but must reflect the worldwide regs and agreements of finance, aviation, maritime, security etc, etc.

 

[Foxholer]

I do find these predictions confusing at times. Shortage of drinking water, really!

Why would the UK create problems with goods being IMPORTED through UK ports, surely the problems if any would be in the EU if freight gets held up in France, Calais authorities state they will not have hold ups their side though.

I'm not absolutely certain, but it could well be because the current free trade environment would likely become 'stuck trade'. Both directions could, in all likelihood, have holdups to process the 'no longer free' trade. After all, the change from EU Customs Union zero rates to WTO non-zero rates would require checking of documentation for compliance - a task not reqd currently. That is not a process 'Calais authorities' would be involved in.

 

[SocketRocket]

I'm not absolutely certain, but it could well be because the current free trade environment would likely become 'stuck trade'. Both directions could, in all likelihood, have holdups to process the 'no longer free' trade. After all, the change from EU Customs Union zero rates to WTO non-zero rates would require checking of documentation for compliance - a task not reqd currently. That is not a process 'Calais authorities' would be involved in.

I believe Calais have been introducing systems part funded by the UK for some time. I still find these shortages we could expect difficult to follow. Toilet rolls, there are a number of manufacturers in the UK, I think we export a lot ourselves. Petrol, do we bring petrol across on channel ferries, I thought the crude oil was brought by ship to the refineries and processed in the UK. No ones going to die of lettuce shortages. All the products imported/exported by ships are very well controlled for the rest of the world, why should there be a problem with EU trade. If you have a real problem with some medical items then i'm sure they could be fast tacked by container or air supply (not convinced there would be a problem though)

 

[SocketRocket]

You really havnt thought this whole no deal thing through have you.

Is that code for "I don't have an intelligent answer so I will post my normal ignorant type reply"

 

[robinthehood]

Is that code for "I don't have an intelligent answer so I will post my normal ignorant type reply"

Is that code for "I don't have an intelligent answer so I will post my normal ignorant type reply"

 

[SocketRocket]

Is that code for "I don't have an intelligent answer so I will post my normal ignorant type reply"

OOF!! Looks like it was then.
You really are a twazzer of the first order, you pipe up with schoolboy comments but never add anything of substance to the debate.

 

[Hobbit]

I'm not absolutely certain, but it could well be because the current free trade environment would likely become 'stuck trade'. Both directions could, in all likelihood, have holdups to process the 'no longer free' trade. After all, the change from EU Customs Union zero rates to WTO non-zero rates would require checking of documentation for compliance - a task not reqd currently. That is not a process 'Calais authorities' would be involved in.

I'm fairly certain the French ports chief said (October-ish last year) that there will be no delays at the ports in a No Deal scenario. The paper side will need sorting out, but that will be an economies of scale issue, as the French, just like the UK, trades across the world.

 

[SocketRocket]

I'm fairly certain the French ports chief said (October-ish last year) that there will be no delays at the ports in a No Deal scenario. The paper side will need sorting out, but that will be an economies of scale issue, as the French, just like the UK, trades across the world.

Heres a recent article.
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/no-deal-brexit-dover-calais-ports-consequences-queues-france/

 

[robinthehood]

OOF!! Looks like it was then.
You really are a twazzer of the first order, you pipe up with schoolboy comments but never add anything of substance to the debate.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

You really are a twazzer of the first order, you pipe up with schoolboy comments but never add anything of substance to the debate.

 

[Foxholer]

Heres a recent article.
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/no-deal-brexit-dover-calais-ports-consequences-queues-france/

My big fear is that part of the headline of that article - 'Nothing is going to happen' - will indeed be the case, thus causing chaos on both sides of the channel!
My hope is that the later comment 'traffic will be completely fluid' is what will actually happen.
We will, however, be subject to the whims of the Calais workers (as we are now), but any effect would, I believe, be far greater.

 

[SocketRocket]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

You really are a twazzer of the first order, you pipe up with schoolboy comments but never add anything of substance to the debate.

Come on then, let's hear some words of wisdom from you. Maybe you could explain whether a pragmatic policy with Brexit would be better placed than a purely heuristic one. Come on get those knuckles off the ground and entertain us with your hidden wisdom

 

[SocketRocket]

My big fear is that part of the headline of that article - 'Nothing is going to happen' - will indeed be the case, thus causing chaos on both sides of the channel!
My hope is that the later comment 'traffic will be completely fluid' is what will actually happen.
We will, however, be subject to the whims of the Calais workers (as we are now), but any effect would, I believe, be far greater.

When he says 'Nothing is going to happen' surely he means things will continue as present.

 

[robinthehood]

Come on then, let's hear some words of wisdom from you. Maybe you could explain whether a pragmatic policy with Brexit would be better placed than a purely heuristic one. Come on get those knuckles off the ground and entertain us with your hidden wisdom

I preferred the dead parrot 😉

 

[SocketRocket]

I preferred the dead parrot 😉

Yes, I can see that.

 

[Taz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1163394371569557504

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I'm fairly certain the French ports chief said (October-ish last year) that there will be no delays at the ports in a No Deal scenario. The paper side will need sorting out, but that will be an economies of scale issue, as the French, just like the UK, trades across the world.

He did - and there are arrangements in place at French (and German) ports to ease flow of traffic - arrangements they have put in place to protect the interests of the EU27 and EU27 business. Unilateral arrangements that could be cancelled at any point but that will possibly make flow seem OK on 1st Nov if we leave with No Deal. One of many unilateral arrangements the EU has put in place and will continue to put in place to minimise the impact on the EU27 - and that will have the positive side effect of benefiting UK business and transport - at least in the short term.

 

[Foxholer]

He did - and there are arrangements in place at French (and German) ports to ease flow of traffic - arrangements they have put in place to protect the interests of the EU27 and EU27 business. Unilateral arrangements that could be cancelled at any point but that will possibly make flow seem OK on 1st Nov if we leave with No Deal. One of many unilateral arrangements the EU has put in place and will continue to put in place to minimise the impact on the EU27 - and that will have the positive side effect of benefiting UK business and transport - at least in the short term.

Unfortunately, that has the opposite effect to the 'Let's take back control' Leave slogan. It gives 'control' away!

Still, it gives the government a handy non-UK 'culprit' when/if things go awry!

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Unfortunately, that has the opposite effect to the 'Let's take back control' Leave slogan. It gives 'control' away!

Still, it gives the government a handy non-UK 'culprit' when/if things go awry!

Indeed it is and indeed it does.

I see BeeJay has gone to have chats with Merkel and Macron. Thought he wasn't going to do any of that stuff for as long as the EU refused to remove the backstop. Ah - but he is not going to negotiate he is just going to give them the UK No Deal facts of life face-to-face if they don't agree to negotiate with the UK - nothing to do with actually negotiating. I have few doubts that Merkel and Macron are full of apprehension looking ahead to the straight talking from our PM.

I look forward subsequent announcements from #10 on how Merkel and Macron were unreasonably unmoving in respect of the backstop agreement, and how they were insultingly dismissive of the views of the UK's PM. All part of the DC plan for the coming GE - wouldn't be surprised. Sad where we are today.

 

[Hobbit]

He did - and there are arrangements in place at French (and German) ports to ease flow of traffic - arrangements they have put in place to protect the interests of the EU27 and EU27 business. Unilateral arrangements that could be cancelled at any point but that will possibly make flow seem OK on 1st Nov if we leave with No Deal. One of many unilateral arrangements the EU has put in place and will continue to put in place to minimise the impact on the EU27 - and that will have the positive side effect of benefiting UK business and transport - at least in the short term.

There's a shock... you saying how wonderful the EU is without mentioning the FACT that the UK is ahead of the EU in technical notices issued. Have yourself a Google search on the complaints coming from the EU 27 about the lack of support coming out of Brussels. You need to read EU media as well has UK Remain, and get some balance to what you say.

You really are completely and utterly blinkered.

 

[Hobbit]

Indeed it does.

That applies both ways... do you honestly believe that the EU will block medicines coming from the UK? Have a look at the proportion of medicines exported by the UK into the EU - its a massive % of the EU's needs.