Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Grant85]

Jo Swinson says she will work with Plaid but not the SNP. Weird rationale of the way an Alliance works there.
Bet she changes her mind when the SNP deliver 50 MP's at the next election.

Yes - it does seem pretty petty, but also is making the point that. i.e. we really don't want Scottish independence (as it is actually possible) but Welsh independence is so remote that we don't care about it too much.

But I'm not sure what an SNP / Lib Dems alliance could deliver in Scotland. The SNP and LD voters are not closely enough aligned for one to vote for the other as a second preference.
i.e. if Libs gave SNP a clear run in some Aberdeenshire seats to gain against the Tories - I doubt many of those LD votes would go to the SNP particularly. They'd more likely vote for the Tories.

In reality, a strong LD showing in Gordon or Moray is needed to help the SNP beat the Tories.

Lib Dems only have 4 Scottish seats and likely that any targets they have will be current SNP held seats.

 

[Grant85]

This is spot on I think.
But it’s everything I hate about politics!
Doing deals with other parties just to get your nose in the trough.
I can’t see to many greens voting LD in a GE maybe a one off by election but not a GE.
If you can win the argument with your policies you should not be standing aside for someone else.
Some of the decisions the LDs made in coalition won’t sit well with Green Party voters.

Ultimately it's a FPTP system and there's no prizes for having 400 second places out of 650 seats.

Perhaps if there was such clever manipulation with 4 or 5 parties playing tactics against each other to effectively ensure no majority then this would lead to a change in the system and we'd see a more continental approach with 4 or 5 parties all combining and having more of a representative parliament that would lead to compromise in law making.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Yes - it does seem pretty petty, but also is making the point that. i.e. we really don't want Scottish independence (as it is actually possible) but Welsh independence is so remote that we don't care about it too much.

But I'm not sure what an SNP / Lib Dems alliance could deliver in Scotland. The SNP and LD voters are not closely enough aligned for one to vote for the other as a second preference.
i.e. if Libs gave SNP a clear run in some Aberdeenshire seats to gain against the Tories - I doubt many of those LD votes would go to the SNP particularly. They'd more likely vote for the Tories.

In reality, a strong LD showing in Gordon or Moray is needed to help the SNP beat the Tories.

Lib Dems only have 4 Scottish seats and likely that any targets they have will be current SNP held seats.

Predictions are that the Lib Dems would hold their four seats {regardless of any deal} and the other seats would go to the SNP.

 

[Grant85]

Predictions are that the Lib Dems would hold their four seats {regardless of any deal} and the other seats would go to the SNP.

I think that's fair analysis - although always the prospect of the SNP getting crowded out a bit in a Westminster election given national coverage and that they will have no prospect of forming a government.

But ultimately the arithmetic is that the SNP will likely be a block of 35 to 50 anti Tory, anti Brexit MPs who will vote rigidly in these interests.

 

[Mudball]

From Twitter.. waiting to be rubbished by the leavers with comments like - if they don’t want our money then we don’t want them ..

—xx—
Quite a story from the FT. Performers at the Edinburgh International Festival are refusing to be paid in sterling because they’re so worried about it mainting its value. “No-one wants to do deals in sterling anymore” its Director says.

Once the global reserve currency and now...

 

[MegaSteve]

How high what

When Brussels says jump!

 

[MegaSteve]

From Twitter.. waiting to be rubbished by the leavers with comments like - if they don’t want our money then we don’t want them ..

—xx—
Quite a story from the FT. Performers at the Edinburgh International Festival are refusing to be paid in sterling because they’re so worried about it mainting its value. “No-one wants to do deals in sterling anymore” its Director says.

Once the global reserve currency and now...

London, as I suspect Edinburgh is as well, Is currently rammed with tourists probably due to the exchange rate being in visitors favour... Swings 'n roundabouts... Back in the day when I worked for a company that got most of its business from across the pond... When the rate was poor it was an opportunity to fill our boots with OT... Happy days👍

 

[Doon frae Troon]

London, as I suspect Edinburgh is as well, Is currently rammed with tourists probably due to the exchange rate being in visitors favour... Swings 'n roundabouts... Back in the day when I worked for a company that got most of its business from across the pond... When the rate was poor it was an opportunity to fill our boots with OT... Happy days👍

So when the pound rises...if it ever will again.......does that mean more bad news for the UK
I am certain that Leavers were promoting the value of the pound against expected falls after the 2016 vote.
You really can't have it both ways.
My worry is, how low will it fall if we actually do leave the EU

 

[MegaSteve]

So when the pound rises...if it ever will again.......does that mean more bad news for the UK
I am certain that Leavers were promoting the value of the pound against expected falls after the 2016 vote.
You really can't have it both ways.
My worry is, how low will it fall if we actually do leave the EU

As you well know the exchange rate rises and falls all the time... Never known it any different... And it can often be for no obvious reason other than 'dark forces' playing silly buggers...

 

[Hobbit]

As you well know the exchange rate rises and falls all the time... Never known it any different... And it can often be for no obvious reason other than 'dark forces' playing silly buggers...

I wonder if the ECB has been buying and selling Sterling?

 

[drdel]

I wonder if the ECB has been buying and selling Sterling?

Its gone back to Quantitative Easing so they're too busy issuing 'bonds' to keep the EU/euro afloat hoping Germany's shrinking growth will not stop it standing behind the debt.

 

[Hobbit]

Its gone back to Quantitative Easing so they're too busy issuing 'bonds' to keep the EU/euro afloat hoping Germany's shrinking growth will not stop it standing behind the debt.

Crikey, that didn't take long. It was only in December they stopped. I know a lot of junk bonds were due to mature. I guess they've been buying them up to allow national banks to normalise their balance sheets.

 

[Foxholer]

Its gone back to Quantitative Easing so they're too busy issuing 'bonds' to keep the EU/euro afloat hoping Germany's shrinking growth will not stop it standing behind the debt.

Have they?

While they have certainly stated that they are prepared 'to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate', that only indicates they are prepared to reintroduce QE, not that they have done so.

Got a link indicating that they have? Or is your post simply anti-Euro/EU BS?

 

[Mudball]

So when the pound rises...if it ever will again.......does that mean more bad news for the UK
I am certain that Leavers were promoting the value of the pound against expected falls after the 2016 vote.
You really can't have it both ways.
My worry is, how low will it fall if we actually do leave the EU

When BoJo said the Tory party is the Party to bring parity... he meant £ to $ parity, and I must say that he is doing a very good job.

As someone who works for a global firm which is HQed in the US..this has not been a good fiscal. Already 2020 targets are up 20% even if we keep sales flat

 

[drdel]

Have they?

While they have certainly stated that they are prepared 'to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate', that only indicates they are prepared to reintroduce QE, not that they have done so.

Got a link indicating that they have? Or is your post simply anti-Euro/EU BS?

I'm so sorry for my lack of precision. My post was (as most of mine are) a somewhat tongue-in-cheek response to Hobbits. The ECB declared its readiness in June to reintroduce QE etc in the Autumn; which in my book coincides with the UK's plan to exit. Since June the economic landscape from Germany, France and the bloc has, in general, looked more bumpy. As a consequence of this and the EU's ongoing Trump trade debacle I'd anticipate that its a course they will more than likely follow under Lagarde and French pressure (especially with Macron trying buy himself out of the French domestic unrest).

For the record I'm not Anti_euro or the EU and neither am I the purveyor of BS; my stance in favour of Brexit is simply that the UK needs to retain its own currency and self governance: specifically the EU's federalist goals would be extremely bad for the UK going forward. The EU Parliament is largely ignored by Brussels which means the EU has used the UK as a cash-cow for decades and the revived and enhanced federalist policy would see any UK investment and growth dragged down by the mountain of debt and commitments to being the major supplier of defence capability and security.

You can find plenty of material on the points I have raised if you'd care to spend a few seconds in research rather than rush to find a put-down quip (which appears to me to be your characteristic style). Here's one specific source; https://www.neweurope.eu/article/ecb-prepares-for-a-second-wave-of-quantitative-easing/

 

[clubchamp98]

Ultimately it's a FPTP system and there's no prizes for having 400 second places out of 650 seats.

Perhaps if there was such clever manipulation with 4 or 5 parties playing tactics against each other to effectively ensure no majority then this would lead to a change in the system and we'd see a more continental approach with 4 or 5 parties all combining and having more of a representative parliament that would lead to compromise in law making.

Yes but these parties that are doing deals all over the place are skewering the result .
Someone who votes green may not vote LD because of their record in coalition.
This could lead to a party winning by default, that’s not good.
It’s a pity they can’t agree more cross party on important things like the NHS instead of behaving like a bunch of schoolchildren in parliament.
It’s all a game to them a well paid game at that.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

The nights are drawing in, soon be Halloween.

Have the government started plans for issuing ration books ?
Remember to stock up your freezer, tins cupboard and stockpile toilet/kitchen rolls for Christmas.

 

[SocketRocket]

The nights are drawing in, soon be Halloween.

Have the government started plans for issuing ration books ?
Remember to stock up your freezer, tins cupboard and stockpile toilet/kitchen rolls for Christmas.

Twazzock.

 

[Foxholer]

I'm so sorry for my lack of precision...

Thanks for the admission that it was BS!

 

[Dando]

Twazzock.

Just like SILH and the crap he comes out with.