Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Wolf]

Unless there's a specific trade barrier do you honestly think a buyer in the US isn't going to buy something if its the right price? Same applies to UK trade with the EU. Unless there's a barrier/quota limit, why wouldn't an EU buyer buy something if its the right price?

A trade deal, e.g. low/zero tariffs/quotas, is decided by govts but providing the seller and the buyer are happy with the price the product will still sell.

I'm not of that opinion at all I believe if something worth buying then they will.

Was merely responding to the post and that it shows what their intent is/was but we all know politicians will change views quicker than they change their pants.

 

[Hacker Khan]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/boris-johnsons-100million-brexit-ad-campaign/

I'm afraid this is behind the Telegraph paywall, but I'm sure a few of you subscribe. Anyway, apparently we are spending up to 100 million in the next 3 months on a No Deal advertising blitz. Good then, I'm glad that whilst schools are struggling to find money to buy basic supplies and pay teachers and we have food banks at least we we can afford to cover the basics and do this. So Brexit party voters will get excited and will switch to vote for Bojo and the Tories in the upcoming general election.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

But it does seem that - in almost a blink of an eye - leaving with No Deal has gone from a 1:1000000 outside chance declared by BJ prior to becoming PM - to an almost dead cert.

And we have various members of the front bench scrabbling around looking for anything from the Leave campaign that might suggest that we knew that leaving with No Deal was an absolute possibility (not just a negotiating ploy) - as likely if not more likely than the great deal we were assured that the EU would be forced to give us (we must remember that we were promised a deal that would mean we could retain all the benefits of being in the SM and CU - without actually being a member of the EU) - and that the vote on 23/6 gives absolute legitimacy to the government pursuing (as they are) a No Deal exit.

Such duplicity would beggar belief were it not for the charlatan in charge.

 

[ColchesterFC]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/boris-johnsons-100million-brexit-ad-campaign/

I'm afraid this is behind the Telegraph paywall, but I'm sure a few of you subscribe. Anyway, apparently we are spending up to 100 million in the next 3 months on a No Deal advertising blitz. Good then, I'm glad that whilst schools are struggling to find money to buy basic supplies and pay teachers and we have food banks at least we we can afford to cover the basics and do this. So Brexit party voters will get excited and will switch to vote for Bojo and the Tories in the upcoming general election.

I'm sure that the BBC report on this yesterday said it was £10 million. Think one or other has got their decimal point in the wrong place.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I don't think it's splitting hairs at all, Obama said that's exactly what it is, whether in answer to a question or not it shows it was already the intent of the US

We are going to be right at the front of the queue of countries that Trump has his beady eyes on for increasing US trade to. In fact he has said that believes he can increase US trade to the UK by 5x - once the damn EU is out of the way stopping him. Well that sounds really positive for indigenous business...

 

[ColchesterFC]

But it does seem that - in almost a blink of an eye - leaving with No Deal has gone from a 1:1000000 outside chance declared by BJ prior to becoming PM - to an almost dead cert.

And we have various members of the front bench scrabbling around looking for anything from the Leave campaign that might suggest that we knew that leaving with No Deal was an absolute possibility (not just a negotiating ploy) - as likely if not more likely than the great deal we were assured that the EU would be forced to give us (we must remember that we were promised a deal that would mean we could retain all the benefits of being in the SM and CU - without actually being a member of the EU) - and that the vote on 23/6 gives absolute legitimacy to the government pursuing (as they are) a No Deal exit.

Such duplicity would beggar belief were it not for the charlatan in charge.

The withdrawal agreement has been rejected by MPs 3 times. The EU are unwilling to renegotiate the WA. That means that the only two options are no deal or no Brexit and unless the EU change their minds it looks like it's going to be no deal.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The withdrawal agreement has been rejected by MPs 3 times. The EU are unwilling to renegotiate the WA. That means that the only two options are no deal or no Brexit and unless the EU change their minds it looks like it's going to be no deal.

Meanwhile we are hearing more of the 'undemocratic backstop' from the mouths of government ministers and such like - whatever it means it is just getting that phrase into the mind of the electorate so that when we leave with No Deal and it is not good they know who to blame - not those who have driven us of the cliff - oh no - fingers will be pointed at the EU - it is their fault for digging their heels in over that damned 'undemcratic backstop'

 

[spongebob59]

Good read on how the EU may have not prepared for no deal :

https://www.ft.com/content/65eb7ffe-af9a-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2

 

[Hacker Khan]

Just if anyone has not heard, the backstop is now undemocratic. I repeat it is undemocratic. This is obviously the new buzz phrase vomiting out of the mouths of the cabinet at every opportunity, so please ensure that when you preface the word 'backstop' with 'undemocratic' if you want to make a point on this thread. If not then Rees-Mogg will be after you.

 

[Hacker Khan]

I'm sure that the BBC report on this yesterday said it was £10 million. Think one or other has got their decimal point in the wrong place.

All I can do is as many do and trust the neutral and balanced leavers paper of choice and the mouthpiece for the current PM over the liberal lefty biased BBC.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1155588702128803840

 

[ColchesterFC]

Just if anyone has not heard, the backstop is now undemocratic. I repeat it is undemocratic. This is obviously the new buzz phrase vomiting out of the mouths of the cabinet at every opportunity, so please ensure that when you preface the word 'backstop' with 'undemocratic' if you want to make a point on this thread. If not then Rees-Mogg will be after you.

Am I allowed to ask why it is undemocratic or what it is about the undemocratic backstop that makes it undemocratic?

 

[drdel]

Meanwhile we are hearing more of the 'undemocratic backstop' from the mouths of government ministers and such like - whatever it means it is just getting that phrase into the mind of the electorate so that when we leave with No Deal and it is not good they know who to blame - not those who have driven us of the cliff - oh no - fingers will be pointed at the EU - it is their fault for digging their heels in over that damned 'undemcratic backstop'

You seem to be ignoring...
A referendum decision to leave the EU
MPs voted to trigger Article 50.
UK and EU spent time on a possible WA while ruling out future trade discusions
Parliament rejected the WA -3 times
New PM demands change to rejected WA because Parliament has decided
EU states no change is possible under their law/rules : in contradiction to Art 50.
UK PM decides to upgrade plans for an exit on EU stated date.

What do you suggest the UK should do that fulfills UK law?

 

[spongebob59]

Latest CBI statement :

“Our view has not changed. Business wants a deal. But we are also pragmatists. We have been preparing our members for the possibility of no deal for many months. Now is the time to shift to an emergency footing… And, contrary to some claims, the EU is behind the UK in its plans to prevent the worst effects…
“The CBI has set out more than 200 recommendations for action. For the government, it shows that good work has been carried out in prioritising short-term stability and temporary measures, such as its approach to licences for regulated EU goods imports…
“For the EU, it means at least matching the UK’s sensible temporary mitigations in a range of areas. They must look at further potential temporary standstills and extensions of emergency measures, especially around borders and data flows. They should also bring forward the ability for UK firms to apply for essential licences as a third country before the UK leaves…
“Two stark messages stand out. The first is to get on with the work. The second is to get back to the negotiating table so that this wasteful and complex process becomes redundant. The EU’s preparations lag the UK’s so it’s in their interest as much as ours to use the dynamic of a new prime minister to reset the approach.”

 

[SocketRocket]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/boris-johnsons-100million-brexit-ad-campaign/

I'm afraid this is behind the Telegraph paywall, but I'm sure a few of you subscribe. Anyway, apparently we are spending up to 100 million in the next 3 months on a No Deal advertising blitz. Good then, I'm glad that whilst schools are struggling to find money to buy basic supplies and pay teachers and we have food banks at least we we can afford to cover the basics and do this. So Brexit party voters will get excited and will switch to vote for Bojo and the Tories in the upcoming general election.

To quote a well known phrase or saying 'Twaddle' You have been blissfully happy for the UK to subsidide the EU by around 9 Billion pounds a year, why have you not been complaining that this money should have been spent on schools, teachers etc. Unbelievable!

 

[Hobbit]

To quote a well known phrase or saying 'Twaddle' You have been blissfully happy for the UK to subsidide the EU by around 9 Billion pounds a year, why have you not been complaining that this money should have been spent on schools, teachers etc. Unbelievable!

Didn't see many Remainers howling at the money Cameron spent in the run up to the referendum.

 

[IanM]

Advertising or readiness information?

For the past 3 years, the EU knew that May would sign up to whatever they put on table. There were no negotiations, just talks.

Will this be different? Who knows.

 

[Hobbit]

But it does seem that - in almost a blink of an eye - leaving with No Deal has gone from a 1:1000000 outside chance declared by BJ prior to becoming PM - to an almost dead cert.

And we have various members of the front bench scrabbling around looking for anything from the Leave campaign that might suggest that we knew that leaving with No Deal was an absolute possibility (not just a negotiating ploy) - as likely if not more likely than the great deal we were assured that the EU would be forced to give us (we must remember that we were promised a deal that would mean we could retain all the benefits of being in the SM and CU - without actually being a member of the EU) - and that the vote on 23/6 gives absolute legitimacy to the government pursuing (as they are) a No Deal exit.

Such duplicity would beggar belief were it not for the charlatan in charge.

Personally, I always thought it was a possibility. Cameron and all the cronies he trotted out told everyone that a vote for Leave meant leaving the CU and the SM. I also thought that leaving would hurt the EU and they would want an equitable deal. May's deal is not equitable, and thank god its in the bin.

The noises coming from some of the EU 27 suggest that reopening the WA is more desirable than No Deal - maybe that will happen.

As for the money and preparations being ramped up; The govt was damned, and you were one of the damners, when it looked like May's govt was dragging its heels on No Deal preparations. And now the govt is carrying out those preparations you're damning them again.

Think about how that looks. Everything you say is hugely negative in every single aspect of this issue. Where's the balanced argument? Where's the recognition that at least the govt is doing the right in thing in preparing for the worst scenario? You just can't see any morsel of good in anything can you?

 

[Hacker Khan]

Am I allowed to ask why it is undemocratic or what it is about the undemocratic backstop that makes it undemocratic?

It's a good question and to be honest I'm not sure, I'd like to say that they are banking on the word getting a certain type of voter all angry so they will vote for the Tories, but I don't know. I'm confident that BoJo, Raab, Patel, and Javid will explain why in every interview they give in the next few weeks. Unless Cummings crunches the data and works out that it doesn't play well with potential Brexit party voters, in which case you won't hear it mentioned.

Here's one of the greatest political minds of our times using the phrase.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1155759804968833024

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Personally, I always thought it was a possibility. Cameron and all the cronies he trotted out told everyone that a vote for Leave meant leaving the CU and the SM. I also thought that leaving would hurt the EU and they would want an equitable deal. May's deal is not equitable, and thank god its in the bin.

The noises coming from some of the EU 27 suggest that reopening the WA is more desirable than No Deal - maybe that will happen.

As for the money and preparations being ramped up; The govt was damned, and you were one of the damners, when it looked like May's govt was dragging its heels on No Deal preparations. And now the govt is carrying out those preparations you're damning them again.

Think about how that looks. Everything you say is hugely negative in every single aspect of this issue. Where's the balanced argument? Where's the recognition that at least the govt is doing the right in thing in preparing for the worst scenario? You just can't see any morsel of good in anything can you?

The government is of course doing the right thing in trying to prepare the UK for No Deal, but leaving with No Deal is surely NOT the governments #1 priority - as was stated by Raab today. Negotiating a new deal should be. Unless that is that was never a realistic objective and BJ and the Leavers knew it all along.

Interesting interview a few days ago by Gary Gibbon (Ch4 News) of the Europe Editor of the Daily Telegraph and the Political Editor of The Times - considering No Deal and No Deal preparations; general election etc.

https://www.channel4.com/news/no-de...nsons-brexit-plan-politics-where-next-podcast

I can see very little positive that goes any way whatsoever towards outweighing the negatives - and the risk of seriously disappointed leave supporters when they realise that they ain't going to get all they were promised.

It is not for me to extol the virtues and benefits of leaving - others can do that if they so wish to do.

 

[BubbaP]

Just if anyone has not heard, the backstop is now undemocratic. I repeat it is undemocratic. This is obviously the new buzz phrase vomiting out of the mouths of the cabinet at every opportunity, so please ensure that when you preface the word 'backstop' with 'undemocratic' if you want to make a point on this thread. If not then Rees-Mogg will be after you.

I'll look/listen out for that one 👍

Probably something like

43. undemocratic backstop
42. crash out with no deal