Sweep
Journeyman Pro
What makes you think we are not leaving? And what makes you think this was the only chance?
Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!
- Thread starter drdel
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SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
No, its not we are leaving its only me apparently 🤔
robinthehood
Hacker
Hey I'm.sure we will do to a degree but not the hard stop that some would want . Probably end up still tied to the EU apron strings but without out any influence what so ever.
TreeSeeker
Assistant Pro
There wouldn't be anything worse than a half exit hell, i have to follow this crap everyday for work, and as someone earlier said, I cannot believe the lack of understanding many of our MP's have been showing through all this.
The amendment on no-deal that they passed today, really has left me baffled.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
You may well be correct although I think the situation can become even more complex yet. I have explained in previous posts that underpinnig all the current shinanigans there is still the position in law which is being ignored but has the oppertunity of biting the whole thing in the bum. No matter how many times votes are made on taking no deal off the table unless the current law is chaged we will indeed leave the EU on the given date of March 29th. Dont write off the Brexiteers to quickly, should there be an attempt to change the current leave date there are parliamentary procedures that can delay and disrupt new or changed law from happening. Nothing is over until its over.
Interesting piece from Sky News this morning. Angela Eagle, Labour MP, asked the Speaker about whether or not a proposition could be repeatedly brought before the House. Bearing in mind May's deal has be beaten twice, and the expectation that it will be brought before the House again with a few minor tweaks. His response was he would check the rule book.
The Speaker does have the authority to stop a proposition from being repeatedly before the House. As he's very much a Remain supporter, and in the twilight of his time in the Chair, there is some suggestions that he could well block it if it doesn't have substantial changes.
That's heaping chaos on top of chaos but, equally, someone needs to break the cycle of stupidity.
The Speaker does have the authority to stop a proposition from being repeatedly before the House. As he's very much a Remain supporter, and in the twilight of his time in the Chair, there is some suggestions that he could well block it if it doesn't have substantial changes.
That's heaping chaos on top of chaos but, equally, someone needs to break the cycle of stupidity.
And that leaving under a No Deal scenario may even be forced onto the UK by the EU. Imagine the conversation; "sorry but you've had all the time you can legally have. We in the EU have our own house to run. Bye."
Taz
Journeyman Pro
Expect them to allow this for another huge wad of cash.
Kellfire
Blackballed
There was, wasn’t there? And it passed with a greater majority?
bladeplayer
Money List Winner
To me and this will upset some on here . This goes back to the lies at the start 2 yrs ago . People voted on promises that could never be delivered . Im not saying it would have changed the result or not . Im just saying. Promising something and delivering it are very different things
ALL politicains do this on a regular basis in regional and national elections and it gets forgotten . Now its in the world news it cant be hidden
Just my olinion tho
ALL politicains do this on a regular basis in regional and national elections and it gets forgotten . Now its in the world news it cant be hidden
Just my olinion tho
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chrisd
Major Champion
With the returning answer "ok ta very much, it's been fun but dont come running to us when you're broke, as we obviously dont owe you the £39 billion now"
Foxholer
Blackballed
While I agree with all the above, I have also shown that, procedurally, changing the 29/3/19 date only requires a Minister to issue an appropriate Regulation.
So it's a very simple matter, involving no parliamentary time to change the Leave Date in the appropriate UK Law.
The greatest challenge about getting the date changed is whether the EU will allow it - as it (first) requires unanimous agreement from the EU Council! Without that UK will leave on 29/3/19 - with No Deal - as that is 2 years from the date UK triggered Article 50. I believe that, in Parliament, only the ERG group would be happy with that!
Foxholer
Blackballed
To me, the big question now is 'what would May, and Parliament, do if the EU refuse to allow a change of date?'.
Does she go back to Parliament with her deal again? I'm sure that some/many, though likely not enough, would accept that instead of the 'guaranteed' alternative of No Deal.
That situation does, however, mean that for the first time, May can apply some 'brinkmanship' to the EU negotiation team and perhaps (must?) get further/better concessions from them - at least about the possible permanence of the backstop arrangement.
I believe it's (only) that area that is preventing many MPs from agreeing her deal. If changes could be made that would mean that Geoffrey Cox, as Attorney General, could issue advice that these changes meant that the backstop arrangements were 'legally binding' as temporary only, then I'm certain a significant number of dissenters from May's deal could be convinced to agree to it!
Does she go back to Parliament with her deal again? I'm sure that some/many, though likely not enough, would accept that instead of the 'guaranteed' alternative of No Deal.
That situation does, however, mean that for the first time, May can apply some 'brinkmanship' to the EU negotiation team and perhaps (must?) get further/better concessions from them - at least about the possible permanence of the backstop arrangement.
I believe it's (only) that area that is preventing many MPs from agreeing her deal. If changes could be made that would mean that Geoffrey Cox, as Attorney General, could issue advice that these changes meant that the backstop arrangements were 'legally binding' as temporary only, then I'm certain a significant number of dissenters from May's deal could be convinced to agree to it!
Taz
Journeyman Pro
Pestons view :
Everyone is getting over-excited.
Calm down.
The idea that Theresa May’s will seize victory from the jaws of humiliation with her constitutionally dubious decision to put her Brexit deal to a vote for a record-breaking third time next week is highly questionable.
First even if the Attorney General admits with the full magisterial regret for which he is notorious that he stupidly excused from his initial interpretation of the palimpsested backstop that - after all - there is a unilateral escape route from the backstop via the Vienna Convention, this would be just one hired lawyer’s opinion, and an oddly convenient one at that.
It won’t change all Brexiters’ minds.
And as Steve Baker, their remorselessly rational leader said on my show last night, he won’t be bullied or bribed by the PM to change his mind and back her deal, even faced with the threat from her that Brexit could be delayed till long after we’re all dead.
So if Northern Ireland’s DUP MPs are seduced by Cox’s Viennese Waltz with Jacob Rees-Mogg (who right at the end of Tuesday night’s Brexit debate prompted Steve Barclay to “find†Cox’s lost words on the benign impact of the Vienna Convention), some 20 odd Tory Brexiteers probably won’t be.
And May loses again.
But let us allow her to dream. Let’s assume her combination of Cox’s carrot and her NeverExit stick (her threat that the only allowable Brexit delay sees us participating in elections to the EU parliament) corals all the Tory ERG Brexiters, even then she would win by just the thinnest, most gossamer-like of margins.
And that’s a huge problem for her.
Because to make a legal reality of her deal, she then has to win a whole series of votes on the contentious facilitating legislation, most notably the Withdrawal Agreement Bill.
And as the business secretary Greg Clark also said on my show last night there is every chance she would fail to get that legislation through, even if she wins meaningful vote 3 next week.
For the avoidance of doubt EU leaders and Brussels negotiatiors are acutely aware that if she wins by just a handful of votes, her Brexit would still be in jeopardy. Which is why they will be wary at the EU council in seven days of giving the UK even a modest Brexit delay, were her vote to pass by one or two.
They and Clark want a much more comfortable margin of victory in the back-from-the-dead Brexit vote.
Which could only be delivered if, as Clark implies she must, she reaches across to Labour by scrubbing her red line that the UK must never join a customs union.
But that in turn could see Corbyn facilitating what his colleagues scornfully see as “May’s Brexit†and permanently rupturing his party, given the religious passion of some Labour MPs and members for a referendum.
Every route to a rational, managed Brexit is fraught with challenges and contradictions.
The underlying Brexit reality is that chaos and uncertainty still rein.
And although at some point soon I may drop my central projection that a slightly delayed no-deal Brexit, in May or June, remains the probable outcome - because it is the default under UK and EU law, and the law is all we have - I have not done so yet
Everyone is getting over-excited.
Calm down.
The idea that Theresa May’s will seize victory from the jaws of humiliation with her constitutionally dubious decision to put her Brexit deal to a vote for a record-breaking third time next week is highly questionable.
First even if the Attorney General admits with the full magisterial regret for which he is notorious that he stupidly excused from his initial interpretation of the palimpsested backstop that - after all - there is a unilateral escape route from the backstop via the Vienna Convention, this would be just one hired lawyer’s opinion, and an oddly convenient one at that.
It won’t change all Brexiters’ minds.
And as Steve Baker, their remorselessly rational leader said on my show last night, he won’t be bullied or bribed by the PM to change his mind and back her deal, even faced with the threat from her that Brexit could be delayed till long after we’re all dead.
So if Northern Ireland’s DUP MPs are seduced by Cox’s Viennese Waltz with Jacob Rees-Mogg (who right at the end of Tuesday night’s Brexit debate prompted Steve Barclay to “find†Cox’s lost words on the benign impact of the Vienna Convention), some 20 odd Tory Brexiteers probably won’t be.
And May loses again.
But let us allow her to dream. Let’s assume her combination of Cox’s carrot and her NeverExit stick (her threat that the only allowable Brexit delay sees us participating in elections to the EU parliament) corals all the Tory ERG Brexiters, even then she would win by just the thinnest, most gossamer-like of margins.
And that’s a huge problem for her.
Because to make a legal reality of her deal, she then has to win a whole series of votes on the contentious facilitating legislation, most notably the Withdrawal Agreement Bill.
And as the business secretary Greg Clark also said on my show last night there is every chance she would fail to get that legislation through, even if she wins meaningful vote 3 next week.
For the avoidance of doubt EU leaders and Brussels negotiatiors are acutely aware that if she wins by just a handful of votes, her Brexit would still be in jeopardy. Which is why they will be wary at the EU council in seven days of giving the UK even a modest Brexit delay, were her vote to pass by one or two.
They and Clark want a much more comfortable margin of victory in the back-from-the-dead Brexit vote.
Which could only be delivered if, as Clark implies she must, she reaches across to Labour by scrubbing her red line that the UK must never join a customs union.
But that in turn could see Corbyn facilitating what his colleagues scornfully see as “May’s Brexit†and permanently rupturing his party, given the religious passion of some Labour MPs and members for a referendum.
Every route to a rational, managed Brexit is fraught with challenges and contradictions.
The underlying Brexit reality is that chaos and uncertainty still rein.
And although at some point soon I may drop my central projection that a slightly delayed no-deal Brexit, in May or June, remains the probable outcome - because it is the default under UK and EU law, and the law is all we have - I have not done so yet
D
Deleted member 21784
Guest
What are the odds on article 50 being revoked when the eu say no to extending date then MPs to claim we will trigger it again when the time is right.. then the rug will be lifted and brexit will be swept under it
Job done
Job done
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
100 to 1? if the EU say no to an extension and we do not have a deal by the 29th then we will leave on the 29th with no deal.
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
Yes she would. I doubt the EU would change their fundamental position on the backstop as twice TMay has told them that she thinks the deal they have agreed will pass and it hasn't. And from everything I've heard they are royally fed up of us and our inability to get this done. And given the stark choice between no deal and Mays deal a few Labour MPs may well vote for the deal.
Imurg
The Grinder Of Pars (Semi Crocked)
Can they change that in law? Would they have time?
D
Deleted member 21258
Guest
I think the people in power do not still get it, why the Brexit vote happened. Going to be interesting the next general election and whether the main parties see a massive shift away from them.
Almost 100% the EU will agree to a long delay, as it is all in their favour, still get money, get the larger companies moving jobs across to other EU countries over time and hopefully at some time the brexit will die.
Now do we have the balls to ride this baby out.....and call eus bluff.
If we go out with No deal and in 10 years time we are a success, then that would be the worst case situation for the EU future.
Anyway popcorn eating continuing.
Almost 100% the EU will agree to a long delay, as it is all in their favour, still get money, get the larger companies moving jobs across to other EU countries over time and hopefully at some time the brexit will die.
Now do we have the balls to ride this baby out.....and call eus bluff.
If we go out with No deal and in 10 years time we are a success, then that would be the worst case situation for the EU future.
Anyway popcorn eating continuing.
ger147
Tour Winner
Current betting odds re. A50 being revoked:
Revoke A50 - 21/5
Don't Revoke A50 - 1/12
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