Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

Status
Not open for further replies.
Doon frae Troon said:
From what I can see she has just jiggled a few words around to try and fool her thicker MP's into voting for it.
I does not look like anything has been changed to the actual EU agreement.
Happy to be corrected on that.:)
Click to expand...

It has reduced the chances of us getting stuck in a backstop but not eliminated the possibility. Cox will come out and say enough to make it seem acceptable to all but the most ardent brexiteers like Mark Francois who will accept nothing less than a hard Brexit and a law saying that eating croissants and not a full English will result in a prison sentence . Starmer who is also a legal expert (although never trust them remember) has said nothing much has changed. The government will be spinning it like hell today to try and get the motion passed this evening, the vote will go to the wire and no one knows anything.
 
Seems as per the last two posts. It is semantics really. Some nice words but at the end of the day we would still be tied in. As no one seems able to solve or compromise on the border problem I don't see what will change in the near future that could prevent the backstop from kicking in. Once in, never to be released.............

Incidentally, if it does get passed tonight, how long before people pick up on the truly dreadful deal it really is on a whole host of other issues? This has been largely passed over due to the dominance of the border problem.
 
It seems that government are still very unlikely to get the deal passed.

Last night looks like nothing more than an escape route that some MPs could take if they wanted to support the government. But there are too many hard liners involved - including the DUP - who are not going to be inclined to take it.

Ultimately there is not a solution to the backstop that doesn't involve the UK in the customs union. The plan from May all along is simply to kick this can further down the road and hope that the EU / RoI eventually give in and let them cherry pick what bits of the EU they would like.

The only possible solutions are;
* No deal (very unlikely and still creates a border in the Irish sea, government collapses and economy tanks)
* UK in Customs Union indefinitely with regulatory alignment on some or most issues.
* UK stays in EU

The middle one is effectively Mays deal, but they aren't saying that. And May's plan was probably to renegotiate the EU relationship hoping to create some kind of palatable customs union around GB & Ireland that could possibly be agreed in the future when the parliamentary arithmetic wasn't so reliant on the DUP.

I have absolutely no clue what is going to happen now. An A50 extension seems inevitable, but to what purpose?

Another referendum may force parliament to get behind one solution or another. But it is still likely to lead to a big political impasse.
A general election is almost pointless unless someone manages to get a clear mandate and clear majority. Seems that both major political parties are incapable of articulating what a clear mandate would be and likely incapable of getting a clear mandate.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Taz
Lord Tyrion said:
Seems as per the last two posts. It is semantics really. Some nice words but at the end of the day we would still be tied in. As no one seems able to solve or compromise on the border problem I don't see what will change in the near future that could prevent the backstop from kicking in. Once in, never to be released.............

Incidentally, if it does get passed tonight, how long before people pick up on the truly dreadful deal it really is on a whole host of other issues? This has been largely passed over due to the dominance of the border problem.
Click to expand...

True. This is only agreeing the very start of the negotiating process and it has driven the country apart, left us deluged under a tsunami of spin, falsehoods and at times outright lies that seems to pass as facts as long as they enhance your increasingly entrenched position (this is a MP , you know, those democratically elected people responsible for shaping the future of this country, someone who should really know better, who reposted an garbage lying article on about the the Lisbon Treaty as fact, deleting the original tweet when it was pointed out that it was all complete garbage, but then refused to admit it was all lies and tried to change the subject)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1104857435670528000

caused most of us to lose what little faith we had in politicians (see previous example) and brought out the worst in many people (see most of this thread).

We still have years of negotiating to come to get an actual trade deal with many countries which will mostly consist of leavers constantly saying 'come on, democratic vote, let's all get behind the UK now, no dissent allowed' and remainers sulking and posting sarcastic and patronising comments on social media pointing out that is is a stupid idea, saying leavers are thick and refusing to try and understand why more people voted leave in the first place. And in the mean time schools have no money, the NHS is stretched beyond belief, knife crime is rising alarmingly.....Can't wait. ;)
 
Last edited:
Grant85 said:
It seems that government are still very unlikely to get the deal passed.

Last night looks like nothing more than an escape route that some MPs could take if they wanted to support the government. But there are too many hard liners involved - including the DUP - who are not going to be inclined to take it.

Ultimately there is not a solution to the backstop that doesn't involve the UK in the customs union. The plan from May all along is simply to kick this can further down the road and hope that the EU / RoI eventually give in and let them cherry pick what bits of the EU they would like.

The only possible solutions are;
* No deal (very unlikely and still creates a border in the Irish sea, government collapses and economy tanks)
* UK in Customs Union indefinitely with regulatory alignment on some or most issues.
* UK stays in EU

The middle one is effectively Mays deal, but they aren't saying that. And May's plan was probably to renegotiate the EU relationship hoping to create some kind of palatable customs union around GB & Ireland that could possibly be agreed in the future when the parliamentary arithmetic wasn't so reliant on the DUP.

I have absolutely no clue what is going to happen now. An A50 extension seems inevitable, but to what purpose?

Another referendum may force parliament to get behind one solution or another. But it is still likely to lead to a big political impasse.
A general election is almost pointless unless someone manages to get a clear mandate and clear majority. Seems that both major political parties are incapable of articulating what a clear mandate would be and likely incapable of getting a clear mandate.
Click to expand...

I actually think it will pass. And we'll end up with a compromise that pleases no one, kind of the inevitable conclusion of the very first phase of a stupid idea that was poorly planned and is increasingly being badly executed. IMHO of course.
 
Hacker Khan said:
I actually think it will pass. And we'll end up with a compromise that pleases no one, kind of the inevitable conclusion of the very first phase of a stupid idea that was poorly planned and is increasingly being badly executed. IMHO of course.
Click to expand...

Early days, but I don't think anyone is predicting this will pass tonight.
 
The comments seem to be that nothing has really changed but pressure is on. If people change their vote it is for political reasons, not because of the 'revised deal'. Fancy thinking our principled politicians would change their minds just like that :unsure:.

I believe initial Labour comments are that they will vote against again.

Anyone heard what the new Independent group are doing on this?
 
Lord Tyrion said:
The comments seem to be that nothing has really changed but pressure is on. If people change their vote it is for political reasons, not because of the 'revised deal'. Fancy thinking our principled politicians would change their minds just like that :unsure:.

I believe initial Labour comments are that they will vote against again.

Anyone heard what the new Independent group are doing on this?
Click to expand...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1105368336915943424
 
I have a wonderful image in my head of each side having a Steve McQueen / Yul Brynner style method of adding a vote either way throughout the day. No words spoken, just extra fingers going up. More than 7 people though so they will need a lot of fingers :D
 
Lord Tyrion said:
The comments seem to be that nothing has really changed but pressure is on. If people change their vote it is for political reasons, not because of the 'revised deal'. Fancy thinking our principled politicians would change their minds just like that :unsure:.

I believe initial Labour comments are that they will vote against again.

Anyone heard what the new Independent group are doing on this?
Click to expand...

Assuming that very few labour will vote for this, there is a train of thought that, assuming Cox gives it his approval, this gives many Tory MPs the opportunity to climb off their high horses when they rejected the last deal and back the deal. As the alternative would be that they could be seen as being complicit in a no deal or a no Brexit as that seems to be the only other alternatives. I suspect it will come down to the DUP and also how many hard line/bring on a no deal ERGers are willing to gamble on the no deal being the likely alternative, as opposed to parliament taking control if the deal is rejected and the house then says we can't leave with a no deal. As no one has a clue what will happen then.

And you could argue that only reason the whole sodding is happening is for political reasons, mostly Tory party infighting, and not really for the prosperity of the country. So that ain't going to change now. But other opinions are available. ;)
 
Hacker Khan said:
Assuming that very few labour will vote for this, there is a train of thought that, assuming Cox gives it his approval, this gives many Tory MPs the opportunity to climb off their high horses when they rejected the last deal and back the deal. As the alternative would be that they could be seen as being complicit in a no deal or a no Brexit as that seems to be the only other alternatives. I suspect it will come down to the DUP and also how many hard line/bring on a no deal ERGers are willing to gamble on the no deal being the likely alternative, as opposed to parliament taking control if the deal is rejected and the house then says we can't leave with a no deal. As no one has a clue what will happen then.

And you could argue that only reason the whole sodding is happening is for political reasons, mostly Tory party infighting, and not really for the prosperity of the country. So that ain't going to change now. But other opinions are available. ;)
Click to expand...
Very true. Perhaps this is the slight chink in the door that some need. They can change without, in their eyes, losing face. Plenty will know they have choked but they will spin it the other way. Politics, politics.........
 
Lord Tyrion said:
Very true. Perhaps this is the slight chink in the door that some need. They can change without, in their eyes, losing face. Plenty will know they have choked but they will spin it the other way. Politics, politics.........
Click to expand...

Yup, what ever happens today, what ever Cox says is pure political manoeuvring.

Apparently we are taking back control from the out of touch political elite. Meanwhile back in the studio we go over to someone who has a massive say in if this vote will pass or not, the man of the people, Jacob Rees-Mogg....
 
Assuming there are only a handful of Labour MPs that might support it - and I don't believe that any Brexiteer Labour MPs supported it in January - there is very little chance of it passing.

If the DUP don't back it, it won't pass.
If the ERG don't back it, it won't pass.
If half of the ERG don't back it, it won't pass.

The Brady amendment which said 'the house supports the withdrawal agreement if the backstop is replaced with alternative arrangements' only passed by 317 to 301. Fairly tight and only leaves room for a handful of MPs who voted for that symbolic motion to abstain or vote against this actual legislation.
 
Grant85 said:
Assuming there are only a handful of Labour MPs that might support it - and I don't believe that any Brexiteer Labour MPs supported it in January - there is very little chance of it passing.

If the DUP don't back it, it won't pass.
If the ERG don't back it, it won't pass.
If half of the ERG don't back it, it won't pass.

The Brady amendment which said 'the house supports the withdrawal agreement if the backstop is replaced with alternative arrangements' only passed by 317 to 301. Fairly tight and only leaves room for a handful of MPs who voted for that symbolic motion to abstain or vote against this actual legislation.
Click to expand...
I don't believe it will get through, Cox says it significantly reduces the possibility. This won't do it.
 
Last paragraph of Cox's advice

However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.

Think that means nothing much has changed and Paddy power are offering 10 to 1 on that the vote will not pass. Still, I remember that you could have got 8 to 1 on us voting to leave on the day of the vote and I continually kick myself to this day I didn't have a couple of quid on it. We may well now end up a majority agreeing to not pass the deal, a majority agreeing to not leave with a no deal and a majority agreeing to extend article 50. So where does that leave us??
 
She's goosed following the release of the legal advice. Time to pack your bags Theresa.

I think it is slightly embarrassing seeing the number of ministers, Vradaker etc saying the deal is different when it plainly is not. They are treating people as though they are utterly stupid (I know, I know, open goal there)
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Tashyboy
Party holes at golf comps.
2
Replies
34
Views
1K
Pin-seeker
Pin-seeker
Don Barzini
Christmas 2025
14 15 16
Replies
319
Views
9K
kp17
kp17
Lucifer MorningStar
Best clubs of all time (Probably)
2 3
Replies
41
Views
2K
srixon 1
srixon 1
B
Ping 7 wood head shortage.
2
Replies
20
Views
2K
KenL
KenL
VVega
What age is your Seniors?
2
Replies
21
Views
1K
Arthur Wedge
Arthur Wedge
Top