Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

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Don't be a wally, its just a bit of idle banter - I never claimed or pretended great accuracy and openly stated I'd made assumptions. The main point is how JLR a UK assembler claims a 10% hike when importing some items and Porsche demands exactly the same 10% uplift whereas they would be an importer of a finished product !!

I'd respectively suggest you check my numbers and come up with a better quantified challenge. Having spent many years analysing and modelling supply chains I'm willing to bet my 'fag packet' estimate's not far adrift. If you have a more accurate figure then a constructive response might be to share it.
Better check JLR’s reasoning.
If they mention line stoppages due to poor supply then we could ask all the workers to pack up until the bits and bobs arrive.... without pay.
 
Don't be a wally, its just a bit of idle banter...
Only if you get pulled up on it!

Otherwise it possibly 'dangerous propoganda'. Especially in your case as (at least to me, supported by the last para of your post) you are someone with fairly extensive knowledge in the area albeit with a different emphasis on the pros and cons of 'membership of the club'.

... I never claimed or pretended great accuracy and openly stated I'd made assumptions. The main point is how JLR a UK assembler claims a 10% hike when importing some items and Porsche demands exactly the same 10% uplift whereas they would be an importer of a finished product !!....

...Having spent many years analysing and modelling supply chains I'm willing to bet my 'fag packet' estimate's not far adrift...
Indeed, that figure jarred with me too!

However, cost to build and pricing are not particularly related, especially on luxury cars! It's more associated with 'what the market will stand'!

Probably of (significantly?) greater concern to the likes of JLR and BMW (for Minis) is the cost of reorganising construction/supply chains to reduce/eliminate tarrifs involved in the likes of the previously documented travels of crankshafts to and from different plants for the various processes involved.
 
Only if you get pulled up on it!

Otherwise it possibly 'dangerous propoganda'. Especially in your case as (at least to me, supported by the last para of your post) you are someone with fairly extensive knowledge in the area albeit with a different emphasis on the pros and cons of 'membership of the club'.


Indeed, that figure jarred with me too!

However, cost to build and pricing are not particularly related, especially on luxury cars! It's more associated with 'what the market will stand'!

Probably of (significantly?) greater concern to the likes of JLR and BMW (for Minis) is the cost of reorganising construction/supply chains to reduce/eliminate tarrifs involved in the likes of the previously documented travels of crankshafts to and from different plants for the various processes involved.
As I showed in that previous thread the machining operations on a crankshaft are made on a single machine in one process.
 
Only if you get pulled up on it!

Otherwise it possibly 'dangerous propoganda'. Especially in your case as (at least to me, supported by the last para of your post) you are someone with fairly extensive knowledge in the area albeit with a different emphasis on the pros and cons of 'membership of the club'.


Indeed, that figure jarred with me too!

However, cost to build and pricing are not particularly related, especially on luxury cars! It's more associated with 'what the market will stand'!

Probably of (significantly?) greater concern to the likes of JLR and BMW (for Minis) is the cost of reorganising construction/supply chains to reduce/eliminate tarrifs involved in the likes of the previously documented travels of crankshafts to and from different plants for the various processes involved.

OK Foxy - you're pulling me up but fail to state where the error is and level of inaccuracy !

"...dangerous propaganda..." - you flatter that the post has any real significance so a bit OTT I'd say and again I stated its an estimate with assumptions so don't see how its either dangerous or propaganda.

If you want to get picky, the claim by JLR was based on their concern that the cost would be impacted. I merely took them at their word and in any case allowed a retail price, CAPEX and assembly split to allow for using retail/market pricing - we could break it down but we'd all be even more bored than we are! You might want to recognise that many Automotive businesses like many global operators use Freeports etc as notional points in the supply chain (SC) to adjust profitability in different countries for prudent tax management. This distorts the nodes in the SC and places where processes take place to influence where value is added.

Just to add to the pedantry: you referred to BMW's "...crankshafts...." - I believe the actual SC issue was related to camshafts - a completely different engine component and sometimes not OE produced!

I bigger worry to me is that MP seem devoid of any knowledge of how international manufacturing actually works yet they proclaim the disaster of Brexit to be around the corner. Barnier seems happy to dig in his heels and put many thousands of German workers at risk with his demand that we divorce future trade from the withdrawal deal. We even have the fear about food supplies when 90% of UK food imports come from outside the EU - there's "dangerous propaganda" for you.
 
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Barnier seems happy to dig in his heels and put many thousands of German workers at risk with his demand that we divorce future trade from the withdrawal deal. We even have the fear about food supplies when 90% of UK food imports come from outside the EU - there's "dangerous propaganda" for you.

Apologies for cropping your post - something I hate. I hope Barnier et al do get their act together on trade. £537 million of veg and fruit come out of Murcia region for the UK. That's a 'ell of a lot of melons rotting on the docks.
 
OK Foxy - you're pulling me up but fail to state where the error is and level of inaccuracy !

"...dangerous propaganda..." - you flatter that the post has any real significance so a bit OTT I'd say and again I stated its an estimate with assumptions so don't see how its either dangerous or propaganda.
...

The word 'possibly' was significant! Shame you dropped it. And the 'dangerous propaganda' term had quotes around it deliberately!

...
Just to add to the pedantry: you referred to BMW's "...crankshafts...." - I believe the actual SC issue was related to camshafts - a completely different engine component and sometimes not OE produced!
....
Doh! I agree, it was camshaft, not crankshaft. 5/8ths right but wrong end of the exploding bit?

...
I bigger worry to me is that MP seem devoid of any knowledge of how international manufacturing actually works yet they proclaim the disaster of Brexit to be around the corner. Barnier seems happy to dig in his heels and put many thousands of German workers at risk with his demand that we divorce future trade from the withdrawal deal. We even have the fear about food supplies when 90% of UK food imports come from outside the EU - there's "dangerous propaganda" for you.
Indeed! But we know how politicians (and the media) work, think (or not) and act/speak so can apply salt appropriately![/QUOTE]
 
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I read an article that explained how the European Withdraw Act is now law with Royal Ascent and can only be changed by another Act that cancels it. Such an act needs to pass through all stages of debate and commitee in both the Commons and House of Lords and be passed by vote. It would also be open to amendments that woud also need to selected, debated and voted on, the article suggested there is no possible way this type of change could happen by Brexit day which is fixed by law. I am not sure if an extension to article 50 would change the legal leave date.
 
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The current 'Deal' on offer is really Bad for us IMO and probably engineered to be so to manipulate us staying in the EU.

If Remainers feel happy about us staying then have they looked at the Lisbon Treaty due to take full effect in a few years and the changes it will enforce on member states. Take a look at them and see if remaining is what you really want.
 
The current 'Deal' on offer is really Bad for us IMO and probably engineered to be so to manipulate us staying in the EU.

If Remainers feel happy about us staying then have they looked at the Lisbon Treaty due to take full effect in a few years and the changes it will enforce on member states. Take a look at them and see if remaining is what you really want.

Has anyone got any links to what the Lisbon Treaty will actually mean. There are all sorts of posts on social media with "scare stories" about being forced to join the Euro by 2022, supremacy of EU courts, loss of veto, loss of control of fishing grounds, loss of the rebate and many more besides but is there somewhere that actually breaks down all the facts about what will actually happen?

I put scare stories in inverted commas because I don't know if they are true or not.
 
Has anyone got any links to what the Lisbon Treaty will actually mean. There are all sorts of posts on social media with "scare stories" about being forced to join the Euro by 2022, supremacy of EU courts, loss of veto, loss of control of fishing grounds, loss of the rebate and many more besides but is there somewhere that actually breaks down all the facts about what will actually happen?

I put scare stories in inverted commas because I don't know if they are true or not.
If you google it you will find some official links.
 
The current 'Deal' on offer is really Bad for us IMO and probably engineered to be so to manipulate us staying in the EU.

If Remainers feel happy about us staying then have they looked at the Lisbon Treaty due to take full effect in a few years and the changes it will enforce on member states. Take a look at them and see if remaining is what you really want.
Project fear
 
So I have an invite to meet some visiting Trade fella who is going to talk about ‘Invest in Singapore’. Of the many benefits that Sg now offers to British business is ‘Easy access to European Market due to recently signed EU-Sg agreement’. That did bring a chuckle ..
 
Has anyone got any links to what the Lisbon Treaty will actually mean. There are all sorts of posts on social media with "scare stories" about being forced to join the Euro by 2022, supremacy of EU courts, loss of veto, loss of control of fishing grounds, loss of the rebate and many more besides but is there somewhere that actually breaks down all the facts about what will actually happen?

I put scare stories in inverted commas because I don't know if they are true or not.

Ask yourself if any of it was true why has it taken this long to suddenly discover that this will happen? You'd of thought the more rational members of project leave would have been all over it from the start if there was an ounce of truth in it.
 
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Ask yourself if any of it was true why has it taken this long to suddenly discover that this will happen? You'd of thought the more rational members of project leave would have been all over it from the start if there was an ounce of truth in it.

Cheers for that. I did assume that much if not all of it would have been more widely publicised if it had been true but couldn't be bothered to read the whole Lisbon Treaty looking for answers and didn't want to dismiss it out of hand with no evidence.
 
Apparently a Spitfire has been booked by the RAF to parachute Ms May into the Brussels Veladrome should there be a last minute change of mind by the EU.

Me think all this is grand posturing... We will have a magic deal and Maybot will be the saviour.

On the otherhand.. have you seen BoJo get ready for the leadership challenge. He just got a haircut1552242158398.png
 
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