Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

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I am just wondering what it is no-one understood about leaving in 2016 that is so clear now. If anything it’s less clear now than ever.
I think you will find that the ERG (Boris et al) have chosen not to rock the boat right now and have decided to see what TM comes back with, as has been widely reported.

Agreed. Just what do people know now that they didn't know then, apart from our MP's should all be removed from office as they are all incompetent.
 
Well two reports out this week severerly undermine the Breshit gravy train.
1) The Govt assessment of No Deal impact seems to impact everyone and see the economy shrinking almost everywhere except the South/London. So much for our golden future ahead
2) Net Immigration figures (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47400679 ) show that EU figures are down but immigration from outside EU has increased. So much for FOM baiters. Maybe we should withdraw from all blocks like WTO, NATO, etc and draw up the drawbridge.
I foresee the words project and fear coming soon.....
 
Well two reports out this week severerly undermine the Breshit gravy train.
1) The Govt assessment of No Deal impact seems to impact everyone and see the economy shrinking almost everywhere except the South/London. So much for our golden future ahead
2) Net Immigration figures (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47400679 ) show that EU figures are down but immigration from outside EU has increased. So much for FOM baiters. Maybe we should withdraw from all blocks like WTO, NATO, etc and draw up the drawbridge.
Nothing new here. The government has told us repeatedly that the economy will suffer. And whilst most accept there will be short term pain, leavers believe it will benefit us in the long term. You should also remember that the “government” is Project Fear Central and practically every forecast to date has been wrong.
The point about immigration is that from outside the EU immigration can be controlled. Whilst we remain in the EU we cannot control immigration from the EU. So those that are coming from outside the EU are here because the UK needs them and they want to come.
Don’t make the mistake of believing that leavers are against immigration. They are against uncontrolled immigration. There is a big difference.
 
I know my posts seem ridiculous, thanks for not tearing into me, but if only things could be simple we'd get a lot more done instead of all this bluddy argueing all the time.
Conflicting vested interests destroy the likelihood of that in almost every case - that's simply 'human nature'!

Add to that several hundred years of conflict involving domination and exploitation AND religion and it should be no surprise that there's bad blood involved!
 
Conflicting vested interests destroy the likelihood of that in almost every case - that's simply 'human nature'!

Add to that several hundred years of conflict involving domination and exploitation AND religion and it should be no surprise that there's bad blood involved!

Hundreds of years of conflict. Should we then be up in arms with the French, the Romans, The bluddy Danes (I'm not a fan of Smichal)?
 
I think we have answered that one countless times.
I would add though that in the eyes of the EU, you should be treated better if you have never joined, paid in billions and supported the union for decades. You know, like Canada or Japan who seem to get great deals with no mention of customs unions, FOM, law supremacy.....
Hopefully, UK will get a similar deal when it (re)negotiates trading arrangements.

The 'other' bits of the EU/Member Country relationship are pretty much irrelevant to the likes of Canada and Japan!

Btw. New relationships very often get a better deal than exiting ones - just look at Broadband ones. And I've just had an offer of a £150 bung if I transfer my Current Account from my existing provider to a new one! I'd bet my existing provider won't make a 'counter-offer'! And I'd bet the 'new' bank isn't offering existing customers anything to stay!
 
Nothing new here. The government has told us repeatedly that the economy will suffer. And whilst most accept there will be short term pain, leavers believe it will benefit us in the long term. You should also remember that the “government” is Project Fear Central and practically every forecast to date has been wrong.
The point about immigration is that from outside the EU immigration can be controlled. Whilst we remain in the EU we cannot control immigration from the EU. So those that are coming from outside the EU are here because the UK needs them and they want to come.
Don’t make the mistake of believing that leavers are against immigration. They are against uncontrolled immigration. There is a big difference.

What does short term pain mean? I hear this oft quoted but with out any actual detail of what it means
 
Hundreds of years of conflict. Should we then be up in arms with the French, the Romans, The bluddy Danes (I'm not a fan of Smichal)?
Well those other actual conflicts ended (sporting ones excepted) many (even hundreds of) years ago. The Troubles are very recent.

Oh and you forgot to mention those pesky Scots btw. ;)
 
And as for trading with the EU after Brexit, tariff and all that. I said to a mate who works in import and export, that we could just ship to countries with deal with the EU and then they forward to the EU. His reply? "Don't you think this already happens?" Goods are shipped out from the UK. Rebadged and forwarded to the EU from countries with better deals than us who are OUTSIDE the EU.

Now who wants to stay in?
 
Because it's your default answer to anything which shows up the folly of what you voted for.
Not for the first time you are talking nonsense. A bit like project fear actually.
If you want to talk about default, the default position of remainers is project fear. No real substance. No real facts. Just what might happen.
Let’s talk facts. Massive unemployment across Europe, especially youth unemployment. The most right wing govt in Italy since Mussolini, the most right wing govt in Austria since Hitler (who was Austrian), Germany avoiding recession by 0.1%, massive protests across France every week for months Etc etc etc.
There is only one folly here and it’s not leaving the EU which you seem to think is the land of milk and honey.
 
Hopefully, UK will get a similar deal when it (re)negotiates trading arrangements.

The 'other' bits of the EU/Member Country relationship are pretty much irrelevant to the likes of Canada and Japan!

Btw. New relationships very often get a better deal than exiting ones - just look at Broadband ones. And I've just had an offer of a £150 bung if I transfer my Current Account from my existing provider to a new one! I'd bet my existing provider won't make a 'counter-offer'! And I'd bet the 'new' bank isn't offering existing customers anything to stay!
Exactly. We should have been allowed to negotiate a trade deal in tandem with the WA.
So basically you are saying that FOM doesn’t apply to Canada because it’s so far away? I know lots of people who would love to live in Canada. And I know lots of Canadians who adore Europe. I am guessing it wasn’t even discussed.
Is the EU only relevant because it’s local then? When micro businesses are importing from China, maybe the local thing has had its day.
Whilst I take your point on your broadband deal, I think the UK leaving the EU is not really comparable.
 
I've not been on this thread for a while so apologies if this has already been said but.......

I think it would be a BIG mistake if the Govt vote to take no deal off the table.

Whilst no deal is far from ideal, it is like a nuclear deterrent. As long as we have it we have bargaining power. Once it goes the EU will roll us over completely!
 
I've not been on this thread for a while so apologies if this has already been said but.......

I think it would be a BIG mistake if the Govt vote to take no deal off the table.

Whilst no deal is far from ideal, it is like a nuclear deterrent. As long as we have it we have bargaining power. Once it goes the EU will roll us over completely!

In theory yes but over the near 3 years since ref UKs stance has weakened from May's original bluff of "No deal is better than a bad deal / We will walk away" to "My bad deal is better than no deal" and running the clock down to achieve it. Some may say that's bad negotiating but perhaps being at the 'coal face' for all this time and having had some harsh reality checks over all this time, PM May and her team know we're significantly worse off under no deal and the EU know we know it too.

In that regard No Deal is not a true bargaining position, bluff is exposed. Guessing EU knew that all along being way more experienced at this type of negotiation than UK govt.

edit: Tories are sold on being the party of economic stability and sensible management - making the country poorer at their behest will stick, have dug a big hole for themselves, torn between upholding a democratic vote but not taking the blame for the ensuing carnage......and we haven't even left yet! Madness I tell ye!:oops:
 
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I think it would be a BIG mistake if the Govt vote to take no deal off the table.
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As long as we have it we have bargaining power. Once it goes the EU will roll us over completely!
I agree!

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Whilst no deal is far from ideal, it is like a nuclear deterrent...
Though we would also be launching one/getting one launched at ourselves! Mutually Assured Destruction applies, so brinkmanship becomes a key part of the negotiating 'equation'. Unfortunately, I believe the EU team are in a far better place than the UK one on this - not only because of their (beligerant) stance, but also because, like when George Soros took advantage of UK exiting the ERM), the steps that TM/UK must take are known and results virtually 100% predictable!

Oh and a small refinement....It's not 'the Government' taking 'No deal' off the table. It's (likely to be) Parliament!
 
NO DEAL is the big ogre!!

What is No Deal? Just what are the aspects that make No Deal good, bad or otherwise?

Its crashing out, its cliff edge, its just been turned into an ogre that no one really knows the detail of. Its marketing hype that makes people buy Apple or or or. Define it! Define the actual realities, not the it will... and guess what? Everyone is buying it because they've been told its the ogre. Is it? I don't know if it is or it isn't but I'll hazard a guess it is a million miles away from being as bad as its being portrayed.

God knows how the rest of the world survives by not being part of the EU. God knows how the world's quickest growing economies are not in the EU.

They should have walked away from the EU 2 years ago and then negotiated a trade deal but they didn't have the balls for it.
 
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