Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

My last word.
Google what are the benefits of leaving the EU.
2nd article states light bulbs, vacuums and blue passports among other assorted nonsense.
Like I said .
Good luck

As I have discovered it is pointless asking the question.

The ordinary leave voter might ask

'I am hearing that prices in the supermarkets might go up and choice could be reduced; that I will lose freedoms I currently have to live, travel and work anywhere across the EU; and that if things don't work out well at the ports or investment is hit then I might lose my job. I understand the impact all of these things would have on me as an individual and my family if these risks came to pass - and I understand that they could come about pretty soon after Brexit - some of them possibly immediately. So tell me what is the upside? Tell me the real, tangible and quantifiable benefits to me that I will notice when we leave the EU - benefits that I will see and feel either straight away or in the next months or year or so. I might be willing to suffer a bit of a hit - though don't fancy losing my job - but please tell me the upside to the risks we are exposed to. The upside that will tell me that the hit I take will be worthwhile'

What he would likely get would be Brian (@Hobbit) explaining in some well-reasoned detail why the risks wouldn't transpire as bad as they might - not that our Leaver was told quite how bad they might be - just that some will occur and others might occur to some extent. And so our Leave voter would say 'OK - so not as bad as they might be - but they still might happen?' And I suspect that Bri would most likely not disagree with these general concerns.

But many others would leap in with condemnations of those propagating unreasonable Project Fear forecasts - and would be telling our Leave voter about how he will reap the benefits of UK taking back control of our borders, money and laws - and that the UK would be regaining it's sovereignty - so he should not worry himself about what he is being told might happen - he needs to man up - believe in the UK - keep the faith.

Our Leave voter might well say 'brilliant - just what Moggie and Boris told me - but I don't understand what these things might mean to me day-to-day - what are the tangible and quantifiable benefits that I would feel in the short term - especially if things get expensive and I might lose my job?'

And he would most likely be told that he must not listen to the fearmongers - that he knew what he was voting for - that benefts will come - though maybe 50yrs down the road

And that's I suspect is just how it would likely be for our Leave voter. And he might shrug - or he might wonder whether or not he'd been sold a pup.

...and oh look what @SR posted subsequent to your post.

OK, how about control of our Borders, Money, Laws, Trade, Fishing and destiny. I can guess your reply will be negative on all these as that seems to be your makeup. If you are concerned about your family then can you guarantee that a future in the EU will be the best way forward for them and if so then show the benefits and why becoming an independent country will be bad for them.

And with that I do not bother asking any further

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Carillion were not always a failing company, they were originally part of Tarmac. You seem rather paranoid regarding the Tories, have Labour administrations never given out contracts to organisations that have failed.

And the Tories hung them out to dry. Carillion need not have collapsed had the government taken the measures that Carillion had defined and set out in respect of bridging financing. Not that there hadn't been mismanagement - but that they needn't have collapsed. That from a friend close to the Carillion Board - and a friend that I believe and trust.

 

[Hobbit]

As I have discovered it is pointless asking the question.

The ordinary leave voter might ask

'I am hearing that prices in the supermarkets might go up and choice could be reduced; that I will lose freedoms I currently have to live, travel and work anywhere across the EU; and that if things don't work out well at the ports or investment is hit then I might lose my job. I understand the impact all of these things would have on me as an individual and my family if these risks came to pass - and I understand that they could come about pretty soon after Brexit - some of them possibly immediately. So tell me what is the upside? Tell me the real, tangible and quantifiable benefits to me that I will notice when we leave the EU - benefits that I will see and feel either straight away or in the next months or year or so. I might be willing to suffer a bit of a hit - though don't fancy losing my job - but please tell me the upside to the risks we are exposed to. The upside that will tell me that the hit I take will be worthwhile'

What he would likely get would be Brian (@Hobbit) explaining in some well-reasoned detail why the risks wouldn't transpire as bad as they might - not that our Leaver was told quite how bad they might be - just that some will occur and others might occur to some extent. And so our Leave voter would say 'OK - so not as bad as they might be - but they still might happen?' And I suspect that Bri would most likely not disagree with these general concerns.

The risks are there, and they are very real. In some cases they will see some businesses fall, and people will lose their jobs. And to those business owners and their employees there is very little that is a worse outcome for them. There will be a fall in tax revenue and an increase in the benefits bill. The fall of those businesses will also see the stock market take a hit, which means most people's pension pots will take a hit. Lets make no bones about it, the short term hit will see everyone suffer to a greater or lesser extent.

Will we see the levels of armageddon that some have prophesied? No. And that's were good government intervention is needed. Its a shame we don't have one. The Tories can't agree who should open the bottle, and the other 3 main political leaders all want different outcomes - you tell me which one is right, or can even be trusted.

What are the potential upsides? A reduction in tariffs for goods from abroad, and access to a greater market on more favourable terms. A reduction in Corporation Tax to stimulate growth, but that has to be balanced against a loss of tax revenue. A greater freedom to support businesses with subsidies.

Brexit is a political choice not, in the main, an economic choice. Yanis Varoufakis has done some great pieces on the EU, Brexit etc, and for the socialists amongst us he's worth at least a look. But on the political 'v' economic debate he put a piece together called "Is capitalism destroying democracy?" It goes very much to the heart of what is a difficult choice, and certainly one I've pondered. Should 200+ businessmen override the political wishes of 17.5 million voters? Democracy dictates that the process is followed but common sense clearly suggests that if lemmings vote to jump of a cliff its not wise to enact the result of the vote. The difference here is no one should believe the cliff is that high.

Is Brexit a wise choice? That depends on your starting point and your ambitions. Both sides of the argument are right, and both sides are wrong... all depends on your choice.

 

[Hobbit]

And the Tories hung them out to dry. Carillion need not have collapsed had the government taken the measures that Carillion had defined and set out in respect of bridging financing. Not that there hadn't been mismanagement - but that they needn't have collapsed. That from a friend close to the Carillion Board - and a friend that I believe and trust.

The government is not the safety net for businesses that can't manage themselves properly. Carillion's board need flogging. They are to blame and no one else.

 

[SocketRocket]

I am aware of where the money originated from, the point is it is dispersed in a manner not influenced by local politics....
So what are the actual benefits of leaving ... the facts please.

You dont seem to understand much about EU grants. The EU dont send a man around the town hall with a fat brown envelope stuffed with spondulas saying 'Bonjour Mon amis, ere is some money we would like you to av. Our local authorities have to apply for it and put up around 50% of the funding themselves. You really do say some strange things, you would prefer the gigantic EU political machine to control our own money but dont want local politics involved in how we wish to spend it. Unbelievable!
I have explained the reasons I wish us to leave the EU and what is a benefit in my estimation may well be a liability in yours but the difference between us is I can uderstand this. No matter how many times your questions are answered you just ask them again, its very boring now.

 

[SocketRocket]

As I have discovered it is pointless asking the question.

The ordinary leave voter might ask

'I am hearing that prices in the supermarkets might go up and choice could be reduced; that I will lose freedoms I currently have to live, travel and work anywhere across the EU; and that if things don't work out well at the ports or investment is hit then I might lose my job. I understand the impact all of these things would have on me as an individual and my family if these risks came to pass - and I understand that they could come about pretty soon after Brexit - some of them possibly immediately. So tell me what is the upside? Tell me the real, tangible and quantifiable benefits to me that I will notice when we leave the EU - benefits that I will see and feel either straight away or in the next months or year or so. I might be willing to suffer a bit of a hit - though don't fancy losing my job - but please tell me the upside to the risks we are exposed to. The upside that will tell me that the hit I take will be worthwhile'

What he would likely get would be Brian (@Hobbit) explaining in some well-reasoned detail why the risks wouldn't transpire as bad as they might - not that our Leaver was told quite how bad they might be - just that some will occur and others might occur to some extent. And so our Leave voter would say 'OK - so not as bad as they might be - but they still might happen?' And I suspect that Bri would most likely not disagree with these general concerns.

But many others would leap in with condemnations of those propagating unreasonable Project Fear forecasts - and would be telling our Leave voter about how he will reap the benefits of UK taking back control of our borders, money and laws - and that the UK would be regaining it's sovereignty - so he should not worry himself about what he is being told might happen - he needs to man up - believe in the UK - keep the faith.

Our Leave voter might well say 'brilliant - just what Moggie and Boris told me - but I don't understand what these things might mean to me day-to-day - what are the tangible and quantifiable benefits that I would feel in the short term - especially if things get expensive and I might lose my job?'

And he would most likely be told that he must not listen to the fearmongers - that he knew what he was voting for - that benefts will come - though maybe 50yrs down the road

And that's I suspect is just how it would likely be for our Leave voter. And he might shrug - or he might wonder whether or not he'd been sold a pup.

...and oh look what @SR posted subsequent to your post.

OK, how about control of our Borders, Money, Laws, Trade, Fishing and destiny. I can guess your reply will be negative on all these as that seems to be your makeup. If you are concerned about your family then can you guarantee that a future in the EU will be the best way forward for them and if so then show the benefits and why becoming an independent country will be bad for them.

And with that I do not bother asking any further

Not much point in replying to that diatribe, you make it clear that you know what we want better than we do. Many people in history thought that and it didn't turn out well for them.

 

[Tashyboy]

And the Tories hung them out to dry. Carillion need not have collapsed had the government taken the measures that Carillion had defined and set out in respect of bridging financing. Not that there hadn't been mismanagement - but that they needn't have collapsed. That from a friend close to the Carillion Board - and a friend that I believe and trust.

And the Tories hung them out to dry. Carillion need not have collapsed had the government taken the measures that Carillion had defined and set out in respect of bridging financing. Not that there hadn't been mismanagement - but that they needn't have collapsed. That from a friend close to the Carillion Board - and a friend that I believe and trust.

Er it is not the first time they have done it. Does it not set a precedent if they were to save a poorly managed company

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The risks are there, and they are very real. In some cases they will see some businesses fall, and people will lose their jobs. And to those business owners and their employees there is very little that is a worse outcome for them. There will be a fall in tax revenue and an increase in the benefits bill. The fall of those businesses will also see the stock market take a hit, which means most people's pension pots will take a hit. Lets make no bones about it, the short term hit will see everyone suffer to a greater or lesser extent.

Will we see the levels of armageddon that some have prophesied? No. And that's were good government intervention is needed. Its a shame we don't have one. The Tories can't agree who should open the bottle, and the other 3 main political leaders all want different outcomes - you tell me which one is right, or can even be trusted.

What are the potential upsides? A reduction in tariffs for goods from abroad, and access to a greater market on more favourable terms. A reduction in Corporation Tax to stimulate growth, but that has to be balanced against a loss of tax revenue. A greater freedom to support businesses with subsidies.

Brexit is a political choice not, in the main, an economic choice. Yanis Varoufakis has done some great pieces on the EU, Brexit etc, and for the socialists amongst us he's worth at least a look. But on the political 'v' economic debate he put a piece together called "Is capitalism destroying democracy?" It goes very much to the heart of what is a difficult choice, and certainly one I've pondered. Should 200+ businessmen override the political wishes of 17.5 million voters? Democracy dictates that the process is followed but common sense clearly suggests that if lemmings vote to jump of a cliff its not wise to enact the result of the vote. The difference here is no one should believe the cliff is that high.

Is Brexit a wise choice? That depends on your starting point and your ambitions. Both sides of the argument are right, and both sides are wrong... all depends on your choice.

Thanks Bri - I knew I could rely on you for a reply just as I had expected (though saying I can predict the future is a dangerous thing ).

But as much as you have identified some benefits - the benefit you have identified that the individual might experience in the short term - lower prices through lower tariffs on some imported goods - are not that much on their own as the upside against the possible downside - especially if that downside is loss of job and slashed disposable income. I think my leaver deserves more on the upside - given he is unlikely to be a fisherman.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Not much point in replying to that diatribe, you make it clear that you know what we want better than we do. Many people in history thought that and it didn't turn out well for them.

QED - I didn't expect you to. Though the disdainful and contemptuous dismal was expected and duly provided.

Immediate and tangible benefits for Joe Bloggs when considering the balance of pros and cons of leaving now that the risks and potential impacts are much better understood? Not a question worth answering it seems - @Hobbit at least suggested one upside through reduced tariffs on imports (though even that would - under WTO rules - expose our indigenous manufacturing and farming industries to levels of competition that could put them out of business).

So was my question too simple to merit an answer - or too difficult for there to be a convincing answer? Does the Leave voter not deserve an answer?

 

[bladeplayer]

I do drop in and out of this thread but admit I haven't read all the replys.

I read with interest re the new ferry company with no boats that seemingly has passed due diligence (sp) for some funding out of curiosity does this worry any of ye . ..?how does this happen ? Old pals act ? If this is a sign of the new world type leadership to take you forward ? Do u trust them .. Can u trust the current politicians u have for anything ?

Again all I hear is u will be fine , are the deals ye hope for there's the business u will need there .. Actually there ready to go . Not pie in the sky bluff u hear from the clowns (all parties). Can u trust them any of them ?

Personally I don't care if ye stay or go tbh, our little country is so corrupt at the top whether we are done by Irish politicians or Europeans it won't mater to us in the slightest .


Just curious as to yer thoughts, on facts not bluff .. Not what ye think but what ye are sure of .

Thanks

 

[Blue in Munich]

I do drop in and out of this thread but admit I haven't read all the replys.

I read with interest re the new ferry company with no boats that seemingly has passed due diligence (sp) for some funding out of curiosity does this worry any of ye . ..?how does this happen ? Old pals act ? If this is a sign of the new world type leadership to take you forward ? Do u trust them .. Can u trust the current politicians u have for anything ?

Again all I hear is u will be fine , are the deals ye hope for there's the business u will need there .. Actually there ready to go . Not pie in the sky bluff u hear from the clowns (all parties). Can u trust them any of them ?

Personally I don't care if ye stay or go tbh, our little country is so corrupt at the top whether we are done by Irish politicians or Europeans it won't mater to us in the slightest .


Just curious as to yer thoughts, on facts not bluff .. Not what ye think but what ye are sure of .

Thanks

Hobbit's post #3,312 should ease your mind a little re the ferries.

As to trusting politicians, there's very little that would make me trust this current bunch.

 

[Dando]

QED - I didn't expect you to. Though the disdainful and contemptuous dismal was expected and duly provided.

Immediate and tangible benefits for Joe Bloggs when considering the balance of pros and cons of leaving now that the risks and potential impacts are much better understood? Not a question worth answering it seems - @Hobbit at least suggested one upside through reduced tariffs on imports (though even that would - under WTO rules - expose our indigenous manufacturing and farming industries to levels of competition that could put them out of business).

So was my question too simple to merit an answer - or too difficult for there to be a convincing answer? Does the Leave voter not deserve an answer?

Thought you were out of this thread?
Was that a lie or an exaggeration?

 

[Hobbit]

Thanks Bri - I knew I could rely on you for a reply just as I had expected (though saying I can predict the future is a dangerous thing ).

But as much as you have identified some benefits - the benefit you have identified that the individual might experience in the short term - lower prices through lower tariffs on some imported goods - are not that much on their own as the upside against the possible downside - especially if that downside is loss of job and slashed disposable income. I think my leaver deserves more on the upside - given he is unlikely to be a fisherman.

Hugh, my answer doesn't even skim the surface. And far better people than I will come up with far better answers yet still miss by a mile.

The one thing my answer doesn't touch on is the possible longevity of the EU. For that you need to look at both the economics of losing a huge chunk of revenue and geopolitical issues within the EU. Financially the EU is a busted flush. The loss of a huge contributor will do a lot of damage. The end of quantitive easing will see a further, added strain on the budget. And then there's the new budget plus added new commitments. Financially the EU is in a perilous state, and I'd hate to be in that 'house' when the walls come tumbling down.

Politically the EU is at a very difficult crossroads. Its own biannual survey published this week sees them having below 50% popularity in almost every country in the EU. Some of the decisions being made at Commission level could come home to bite them on the bum, e.g. refusing Italy's budget but not France's. A central budget/finance chancellor, with individual countries having no say. The appointment of Juncker's hitman/#2 under very undemocratic circumstances. The Eastern European countries openly rebelling against the EU over immigration.

The EU as a trading concept, yes 100% yes. But the current path, following Juncker's political dream, no way is it a concept I'd endorse. Nor do I think its sustainable without some major changes. Northern Europe is very different politically than Southern Europe, and Eastern Europe is different again. A one shoe fits all just doesn't work.

 

[drdel]

I do drop in and out of this thread but admit I haven't read all the replys.

I read with interest re the new ferry company with no boats that seemingly has passed due diligence (sp) for some funding out of curiosity does this worry any of ye . ..?how does this happen ? Old pals act ? If this is a sign of the new world type leadership to take you forward ? Do u trust them .. Can u trust the current politicians u have for anything ?

Again all I hear is u will be fine , are the deals ye hope for there's the business u will need there .. Actually there ready to go . Not pie in the sky bluff u hear from the clowns (all parties). Can u trust them any of them ?

Personally I don't care if ye stay or go tbh, our little country is so corrupt at the top whether we are done by Irish politicians or Europeans it won't mater to us in the slightest .


Just curious as to yer thoughts, on facts not bluff .. Not what ye think but what ye are sure of .

Thanks

Hot tip - don't tale newspaper/media reports as literal.

If you're really are interested you can research the company - its a bit more substantial than the rumours. Most marine logistical assets are hire/leased.

 

[bladeplayer]

Hobbit's post #3,312 should ease your mind a little re the ferries.

As to trusting politicians, there's very little that would make me trust this current bunch.

Thanks il have a look , as I sai I haven't read all replys ,
I don't have the answers just curious questions

 

[bladeplayer]

Hot tip - don't tale newspaper/media reports as literal.

If you're really are interested you can research the company - its a bit more substantial than the rumours. Most marine logistical assets are hire/leased.

Old enough to know by now to believe half what u see and less of what u hear , that's why I'm asking on here coz I'd believe ye guys more than papers or news but need definite comment not I heard or I think

 

[Tashyboy]

And the Tories hung them out to dry. Carillion need not have collapsed had the government taken the measures that Carillion had defined and set out in respect of bridging financing. Not that there hadn't been mismanagement - but that they needn't have collapsed. That from a friend close to the Carillion Board - and a friend that I believe and trust.

SR. This is old news but Carillon through its negligence sent thousands of jobs from other companies who they never paid to the dole queue. They made X number of companies go bust. Yet my tax payers money should of stopped Carilion going under coz your trusted mate says so. Would like to think my money went to the companies that did nowt wrong.

 

[drdel]

Old enough to know by now to believe half what u see and less of what u hear , that's why I'm asking on here coz I'd believe ye guys more than papers or news but need definite comment not I heard or I think

Point taken. However there are good 'trade' journals, port reports etc with factual reports that will give you better info than an internet forum

 

[SocketRocket]

QED - I didn't expect you to. Though the disdainful and contemptuous dismal was expected and duly provided.

Immediate and tangible benefits for Joe Bloggs when considering the balance of pros and cons of leaving now that the risks and potential impacts are much better understood? Not a question worth answering it seems - @Hobbit at least suggested one upside through reduced tariffs on imports (though even that would - under WTO rules - expose our indigenous manufacturing and farming industries to levels of competition that could put them out of business).

So was my question too simple to merit an answer - or too difficult for there to be a convincing answer? Does the Leave voter not deserve an answer?

Neither, it was too onerous and Hackney. We've been through this too many times already and another term of it is too nauseating to contemplate.

 

[Mudball]

From Twitter.. so must be true (that’s the joke bit) but still does not filll anyone with confidence..

Seabourne Freight shares the same registered Address, 59 Mansell Street, as the Maritime Law firm Campbell Johnson Clark whose Director is called Mark Bamford, I did two minutes of research, Antony Bamford of JCB is a huge Tory party donor, his brother is called Mark...