Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

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SwingsitlikeHogan said:
...long on emotive rhetoric and opinions but bu99er all in the way of facts.

Which is of course the totality of the Leave campaign's view of the future of the UK - and much of it's interpretation of the UK's current position within the EU

Besides - Birrell is more commenting on the individuals - which is of course his opinion - and not any detail of their views of life out of the EU (though of detail these charlatans provide little in any case)

Of course he acknowledges the shackles that Brussels will (temporarily?) have on the UK in respect of customs agreement - that is why he'll hate the agreement - it so much worse than our current situation. But that is where exiting the EU is taking us.

I also like that in pointing out the 'shackles' the Agreement has us in - Birrell highlights (and Leave voters agree with him) that with May's Agreement the UK loses most of the sovereignty it currently has in the context of the EU - that being the sovereignty that Leave tell us that the UK had already lost for being in the EU and that by leaving we will be regaining. Somehow we seem to have miraculously regained sovereignty without having yet left the EU - to foolishly lose it again under May's Agreement.
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Do you read what you post? Did you read Birrell's article? I suggest you read it again, slowly and carefully. The shackles he talks about are those that are already in place BEFORE any deal is signed. Or were you deliberately twisting it to hide the fact you didn't understand it first time round.

And you're right, the agreement will see us as a vassal state. Tied to regulations that we had no say in making, and can't get out of short of breaking laws. In effect, the Brexiteers are right to kick off about the agreement. It needs tweaking, if the EU will, or it needs ditching.

Roll on no deal.
 
Hobbit said:
Do you read what you post? Did you read Birrell's article? I suggest you read it again, slowly and carefully. The shackles he talks about are those that are already in place BEFORE any deal is signed. Or were you deliberately twisting it to hide the fact you didn't understand it first time round.

And you're right, the agreement will see us as a vassal state. Tied to regulations that we had no say in making, and can't get out of short of breaking laws. In effect, the Brexiteers are right to kick off about the agreement. It needs tweaking, if the EU will, or it needs ditching.

Roll on no deal.
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I will take you advice and re-read

However it is not only Brexiteers think the Withdrawal Agreement is pants. It is just that Remain voters were told it would have to be pants, and believed what they were told. All Leave voters heard the same words and many believed what that were told - that it was Project Fear; that the EU and the German car industry needed the UK more than the other way around - and so we would get a good deal; that the UK held all the best cards.

And so it came to pass.

BTW - some vassals had a lot of power, influence and flexibility (feudal Lords for example) - only it is power with allegiance, commitments and responsibilities. No matter - many it's seems would rather have the UK subservient to the WTO (over which we have little or no influence) and a vassal state of the USA - God help us.
 
Hobbit said:
Do you read what you post? Did you read Birrell's article? I suggest you read it again, slowly and carefully. The shackles he talks about are those that are already in place BEFORE any deal is signed. Or were you deliberately twisting it to hide the fact you didn't understand it first time round.
Click to expand...

Is it the following extract that you point me to?

Their ostrich-like behaviour baffles those on other side of the negotiating table. “It’s horrendous to see politicians so openly fighting for power without taking ordinary people’s lives into account or presenting an alternative,” said one European diplomat, adding that “people and politicians in the UK cannot grasp they are not an equal partner to the EU27 but a supplicant.”

Sadly, this is true. Yes, May’s Brexit deal is pitiful, worse on every level than existing arrangements as privately admitted inside Downing Street. Britain goes from having the best arrangement in Europe – with influence, a decent rebate and no euro – to becoming a supine rule-taker to access vital markets.

Because what Birrell is, I think commenting upon here is the relative strengths and positions of the UK and the EU in the negotiations - and nothing to do with our position within the EU as it is today (he comments on that when he says - Britain goes from having the best arrangement in Europe – with influence, a decent rebate and no euro )

The Brexit-favouring politicians and many Leave voters seem to think that the UK is, at least, an equal with the EU in the negotiations - when in fact that is not the case. The UK is leaving the EU and would like to retain many of the benefits of being a member. It is in this aspect of the negotiation that the UK has little to offer the EU. The relationship in respect of EU membership benefits is surely that the EU is the benefactor with the UK being the supplicant in seeking some of the benefits of membership. It is entirely up to the EU whether or not it grants any such benefits to the UK.

So what Birrell is reflecting upon is the view expressed by European diplomats about the negotiations - that sadly - people and politicians in the UK cannot grasp they are not an equal partner to the EU27 but a supplicant.

Anyhow - that's how I read it.
 
Hobbit said:
Do you read what you post? Did you read Birrell's article? I suggest you read it again, slowly and carefully. The shackles he talks about are those that are already in place BEFORE any deal is signed. Or were you deliberately twisting it to hide the fact you didn't understand it first time round.

And you're right, the agreement will see us as a vassal state. Tied to regulations that we had no say in making, and can't get out of short of breaking laws. In effect, the Brexiteers are right to kick off about the agreement. It needs tweaking, if the EU will, or it needs ditching.

Roll on no deal.
Click to expand...

Totally agree, the sooner the better.

It has been obvious that Barnier has never had the authority/option to agree and 'give way' - unelected, he represents 27 nations whose elected Heads are not coherent and do not themselves agree on strategic issues. T'was always going to be a zero sum game.

As a consequence the negotiations were never going to be about give and take but simply about the EU standing still or demanding voting be re-run: as, historically, it has always done when faced with difficulties e.g. Ireland, Greece, Italy etc.

Art 50 triggered the UK leaving the 28 member group next year. It was/is crass to think that it is possible to set out closure mechanisms without simultaneously setting out the future. Barnier was either stupid to make the demand or he intentionally set out to block any negotiation because he knew he could not 'trade' without loosing face and opening himself to criticism. His safest strategy was always to simply say 'no' to anything and everything: thereby keeping Germany and France happy. The interests of the rest of the EU are of little interest to him.

The UK was daft to allow the intrinsically flawed process to proceed when it was structurally doomed to fail.
 
drdel said:
Totally agree, the sooner the better.

It has been obvious that Barnier has never had the authority/option to agree and 'give way' - unelected, he represents 27 nations whose elected Heads are not coherent and do not themselves agree on strategic issues. T'was always going to be a zero sum game.

As a consequence the negotiations were never going to be about give and take but simply about the EU standing still or demanding voting be re-run: as, historically, it has always done when faced with difficulties e.g. Ireland, Greece, Italy etc.

Art 50 triggered the UK leaving the 28 member group next year. It was/is crass to think that it is possible to set out closure mechanisms without simultaneously setting out the future. Barnier was either stupid to make the demand or he intentionally set out to block any negotiation because he knew he could not 'trade' without loosing face and opening himself to criticism. His safest strategy was always to simply say 'no' to anything and everything: thereby keeping Germany and France happy. The interests of the rest of the EU are of little interest to him.

The UK was daft to allow the intrinsically flawed process to proceed when it was structurally doomed to fail.
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I am not so sure @Hobbit was actually suggesting that No Deal would be a good thing. But it is reassuring to read that some continue to believe that setting the country back for decades (see Jacob Rees-Mogg - we might not see the benefit for 50yrs), in the meantime hurting the poorest in this country is a price worth paying to leave the EU

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jacob-rees-mogg-economy-brexit_uk_5b54e3b5e4b0de86f48e3566)

Indeed we know now that the actual benefits of leaving do not seem to be quantifiable by any economists other than such as Patrick Minford. But let's not forget what Minford says about how the UK could benefit in a new world out of the EU

Minford’s policy recommendation is that following a vote for Brexit, the UK should not bother striking new trade deals but instead unilaterally abolish all its import tariffs (let’s call this policy ‘Britain Alone’). The UK would simply pay the tariffs imposed by other countries on UK exports. This is usually the worst-case scenario that other economists have examined.

This would be a pretty hard sell to UK citizens. Minford admits his model predicts that the policy would cause the ‘elimination’ of UK manufacturing and a large increase in wage inequality. But although he is relaxed about these outcomes, we suspect that voters in Port Talbot and elsewhere in Britain wouldn’t be so impressed.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...onomists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/

Excellent.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Is it the following extract that you point me to?

Their ostrich-like behaviour baffles those on other side of the negotiating table. “It’s horrendous to see politicians so openly fighting for power without taking ordinary people’s lives into account or presenting an alternative,” said one European diplomat, adding that “people and politicians in the UK cannot grasp they are not an equal partner to the EU27 but a supplicant.”

Sadly, this is true. Yes, May’s Brexit deal is pitiful, worse on every level than existing arrangements as privately admitted inside Downing Street. Britain goes from having the best arrangement in Europe – with influence, a decent rebate and no euro – to becoming a supine rule-taker to access vital markets.

Because what Birrell is, I think commenting upon here is the relative strengths and positions of the UK and the EU in the negotiations - and nothing to do with our position within the EU as it is today.

The Brexit-favouring politicians and many Leave voters seem to think that the UK is, at least, an equal with the EU in the negotiations - when in fact that is not the case. The UK is leaving the EU and would like to retain many of the benefits of being a member. It is in this negotiation that the UK has little to offer the EU. The relationship in respect of EU membership benefits is surely that the EU is the benefactor with the UK being the supplicant in seeking some of the benefits of membership. It is entirely up to the EU whether or not it grants any such benefits to the UK.

So what Birrell is reflecting upon is the view expressed by European diplomats about the negotiations - that sadly - people and politicians in the UK cannot grasp they are not an equal partner to the EU27 but a supplicant.

Anyhow - that's how I read it.
Click to expand...

No, it was in the first piece of his you posted up, which I quoted back. He talks about shackles that are already in place. My point was he talks about being shackled to Brussels now, which just seems ironic from someone who clearly supports being in there.

As to the above, and his assumption that the UK have nothing to offer in the negotiations. To be honest, I think he is blind, or blinkered or being deliberately obtuse in ignoring what the EU is keen to keep. For example, Spain wants continued access to UK waters for fishing. As an overall number, £500m, it isn't a huge amount in terms of Spain's GDP. But its very regional, obviously, when it comes to fishing. That £500m is almost exclusively 'earned' by the northern fishing ports, e.g. Bilbao. To take £500m out of an economy in a relatively small area would really hurt - the NE of England, Middlesbrough had over 70,000 people employed by British Steel and ICI, and now have less than 4,000 and a bigger population. Losing that income in a small area has devastated the area.

Imagine the EU funding that would be needed, from a take that has been reduced by £9bn, to support lots of local areas that have lost business. There's no winners in Brexit, and I contest that Birrell is talking through is whatsits if he thinks the UK has nothing to offer in the negotiations.

EDIT: I wasn't saying no deal is a good thing. I was saying its better than the deal on offer. The deal on offer is so bad I'd be tempted to say May has been offered a bung. No one in their right mind would be happy to put that forward as a solution.
 
We would be stupid to CRASH into this deal, we would be falling off a cliff edge into EU domination. Rather than accept this bad deal we should take the option of a good deal where we would be free to forge our own way in the world and break free from our EU shakles. There would be a silver lining for the EU, we would allow them to enter a free trade agreement with us so their ecconomies would not suffer too much.
 
Hobbit said:
No, it was in the first piece of his you posted up, which I quoted back. He talks about shackles that are already in place. My point was he talks about being shackled to Brussels now, which just seems ironic from someone who clearly supports being in there.

As to the above, and his assumption that the UK have nothing to offer in the negotiations. To be honest, I think he is blind, or blinkered or being deliberately obtuse in ignoring what the EU is keen to keep. For example, Spain wants continued access to UK waters for fishing. As an overall number, £500m, it isn't a huge amount in terms of Spain's GDP. But its very regional, obviously, when it comes to fishing. That £500m is almost exclusively 'earned' by the northern fishing ports, e.g. Bilbao. To take £500m out of an economy in a relatively small area would really hurt - the NE of England, Middlesbrough had over 70,000 people employed by British Steel and ICI, and now have less than 4,000 and a bigger population. Losing that income in a small area has devastated the area.

Imagine the EU funding that would be needed, from a take that has been reduced by £9bn, to support lots of local areas that have lost business. There's no winners in Brexit, and I contest that Birrell is talking through is whatsits if he thinks the UK has nothing to offer in the negotiations.

EDIT: I wasn't saying no deal is a good thing. I was saying its better than the deal on offer. The deal on offer is so bad I'd be tempted to say May has been offered a bung. No one in their right mind would be happy to put that forward as a solution.
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The biggest issue I have with the Withdrawal Agreement being worse than not having one, is that it seems to me that the fears (what an irony that is) that Hard-Brexiters are shouting about relate to the customs alignment required until a solution to manage the NI/EU border is defined and implemented.

And this confuses me as we have been told endlessly by Leave Leaders - and continue to hear same - that the NI/EU border issue is a confected issue - it is not real - that a solution exists today. If that is true then the solution will be implemented during the transition period. And even were it not then a plan and timescales for implementing it would be known and timescales associated with the backstop would at that point be defined. Once implemented why then would the EU wish to keep the UK tied in to a customs alignment?
 
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SocketRocket said:
We would be stupid to CRASH into this deal, we would be falling off a cliff edge into EU domination. Rather than accept this bad deal we should take the option of a good deal where we would be free to forge our own way in the world and break free from our EU shakles. There would be a silver lining for the EU, we would allow them to enter a free trade agreement with us so their ecconomies would not suffer too much.
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LOL, I see what you did there....😂
 
SocketRocket said:
We would be stupid to CRASH into this deal, we would be falling off a cliff edge into EU domination. Rather than accept this bad deal we should take the option of a good deal where we would be free to forge our own way in the world and break free from our EU shakles. There would be a silver lining for the EU, we would allow them to enter a free trade agreement with us so their ecconomies would not suffer too much.
Click to expand...

Except there is no 'good deal' on offer/available!
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
The biggest issue I have with the Withdrawal Agreement being worse than not having one, is that it seems to me that the fears (what an irony that is) that Hard-Brexiters are shouting about relate to the customs alignment required until a solution to manage the NI/EU border is defined and implemented.

And this confuses me as we have been told endlessly by Leave Leaders - and continue to hear same - that the NI/EU border issue is a confected issue - it is not real - that a solution exists today. If that is true then the solution will be implemented during the transition period. And even were it not then a plan and timescales for implementing it would be known and timescales associated with the backstop would at that point be defined. Once implemented why then would the EU wish to keep the UK tied in to a customs alignment?
Click to expand...

To deal with your first paragraph; you are happy to have the EU set our tariffs ad infinitum? Perhaps I shouldn't have put the question mark there. Your are happy for the EU to control an independent body that sets our agricultural policy and subsidies? Have you bothered to read the agreement yet, or are you going on sound bites from politicians and business leaders with a vested interest?

Second paragraph; I, and others, have told you on numerous occasions that technical solutions are already available and are already in use throughout the EU. I also told you of a BBC piece about how goods enter Estonia, the EU, from Russia, non-EU, using a technical solution at the border. And now you question whether or not it is true. That is deeply insulting. Why would I lie? Of course its bloody true.
 
There is no such thing as a No Deal. The deal would be leaving the EU just like voters wanted. Trading arrangements would start under WTO just like so many countries in the World, there would probably emerge a trade agreement with the EU as it would be very much in their best interests. The UK could drop tariffs and get some more favourable trading arrangements around the world. It would take some adjustment and no doubt a degree of discomfort but kicking any bad habit brings some of that, the benefit is you become healthier, fitter and in better shape afterwards. Let's start manufacturing more, growing more, creating more worthwhile jobs and also ones that give a future to the less gifted in our country, working is a great theropy for a better life. It isn't all gloom and doom out there
 
SocketRocket said:
There is no such thing as a No Deal. The deal would be leaving the EU just like voters wanted. Trading arrangements would start under WTO just like so many countries in the World, there would probably emerge a trade agreement with the EU as it would be very much in their best interests. The UK could drop tariffs and get some more favourable trading arrangements around the world. It would take some adjustment and no doubt a degree of discomfort but kicking any bad habit brings some of that, the benefit is you become healthier, fitter and in better shape afterwards. Let's start manufacturing more, growing more, creating more worthwhile jobs and also ones that give a future to the less gifted in our country, working is a great theropy for a better life. It isn't all gloom and doom out there
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You make it sound so easy - but let’s be blunt you don’t know if it’s going to work like that , your statements have a few “coulds” - “probablys” and you certainly can’t say “would” as if it’s a given.

And how do you know the “benefits” will be better after a “no deal”

And all these “manufacturer this and that” “ grow this “ - that’s just words at the end of the day and saying it is easy. What exactly is it you think we will “manufacture” or grow etc

And that “degree of discomfort” could well mean thousand maybe more losing jobs , companies going under , thousands looking for benefits - maybe it’s a damn sight more than a “degree of discomfort” for a lot of people.
 
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