Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I agree with this up to a point. If both sides, note both sides, say we are one week/month away from signing a deal, then a delay is acceptable. But if neither side can predict when/if a deal is doable, leave. I'm sure both sides will be very focussed if the UK has already left.

It's not what Baker was being asked. He was asked if - with days or less to go - it became obvious that a deal could be concluded within a couple of days of the 31/10 he'd at that point accept an extension to accommodate finalising it. No No, No. Utterly absurd.

 

[Old Skier]

It's not what Baker was being asked. He was asked if - with days or less to go - it became obvious that a deal could be concluded within a couple of days of the 31/10 he'd at that point accept an extension to accommodate finalising it. No No, No. Utterly absurd.

It's not absurd. It would be political suicide after the noises made about 31st Oct and the possibility of any talks failing.

 

[Taz]

How apt, not sure the current lot are worth this , more like 2 bob.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04...ng-mps-as-chimpanzees-sold-for-record-amount/

 

[Hobbit]

It's not what Baker was being asked. He was asked if - with days or less to go - it became obvious that a deal could be concluded within a couple of days of the 31/10 he'd at that point accept an extension to accommodate finalising it. No No, No. Utterly absurd.

I can see why he would say that, i.e. to send an unambiguous message to the EU. But I’d like to think it’s just political posturing.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

How apt, not sure the current lot are worth this , more like 2 bob.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04...ng-mps-as-chimpanzees-sold-for-record-amount/

Don't worry the painting will self destruct next week.

 

[drdel]

To avoid blame I reckon the EU are intending to kick the, already battered , can down the road and drag this farce into 2020.

 

[Taz]

The Irish Teapot speaks out not sure what polls he's reading, must be the Grauniad.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...uty-PM-Simon-Coveney-hits-UK-Brexit-plan.html

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I can see why he would say that, i.e. to send an unambiguous message to the EU. But I’d like to think it’s just political posturing.

I hope so also - but there is a lot of posturing going on and I am not sure I can believe a word that anyone is saying. And so we had this morning Brandon Lewis confirmed the BAFO is Final - but that the government might consider feedback from the EU - but that the offer remained Final...so Mr Lewis - is it final or not?

I still don't really understand the replacement to the backstop - as what Johnson said in his letter to the EU (and that we have seen) is different to what he said in the HoC yesterday - and neither to me seemed consistent with what Greg Hands said on Newsnight last night. And what of the regulatory alignment aspect and the role of Stormont? How is that going to work? There are just so many 'what-ifs' that make it difficult to understand the consequences,

But in the end - and though I think leaving is madness - I have to accept that, for whatever their reasons might be, a lot of folks demand that we leave. I might want to remain but what I want is often not the best thing in the long run - I have to understand what the 'right' thing to happen would be. And in truth the 'right' thing to happen is probably for us to leave - notwithstanding I believe that the man-in-the-street will experience absolutely no benefits whatsoever to counterbalance the negatives that we know will happen - certainly in the short to medium term.

But if Johnson's proposal still has everything else in May's Agreement that I've been told was bad - then it'll still be a bad deal? And if we leave with a deal that Farage can paint as bad in some ways - then the fire in the bellies of Farage and his BP comrades will burn - and he will convince many that Johnson's deal is bad and that they should vote for the BP - and for me that is also (and I'll be nice) a sub-optimal outcome.

And we have the devious cunning duplicity of Cummings guiding Johnson around having to seek an extension if - and when - the EU reject what Johnson has put on the table.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

It's not absurd. It would be political suicide after the noises made about 31st Oct and the possibility of any talks failing.

Yes - maybe - but it's not Remain voters fault that Johnson has decided to stand on a chair that has a very shoogly leg and with a noose around his neck - he and the Tory Party have chosen for him to do that.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The Irish Teapot speaks out not sure what polls he's reading, must be the Grauniad.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...uty-PM-Simon-Coveney-hits-UK-Brexit-plan.html

If referring to the Irish Deputy PM as a Teapot is meant to be a funny anglicized pun on his gaelic title - I think you've got the wrong title - Coveney is the Tánaiste - he is not the Taoiseach.

 

[Hacker Khan]

The Irish Teapot speaks out not sure what polls he's reading, must be the Grauniad.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...uty-PM-Simon-Coveney-hits-UK-Brexit-plan.html

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...m-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/?removed These?

 

[SocketRocket]

Yes - maybe - but it's not Remain voters fault that Johnson has decided to stand on a chair that has a very shoogly leg and with a noose around his neck - he and the Tory Party have chosen for him to do that.

It amuses me that if I made a comment like that about Sturgeon or Corbyn let alone Swinson I would be accused of inciting hatred, you get gnarly if someones called a teapot. . Guess its OK with Boris

 

[ColchesterFC]

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...m-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/?removed These?

The last poll from 9th Sept shows 52% Remain, 48% Leave. Does that mean we can spend three years arguing over the result and then decide that Remaining is too difficult so we'll Leave?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

It amuses me that if I made a comment like that about Sturgeon or Corbyn let alone Swinson I would be accused of inciting hatred, you get gnarly if someones called a teapot. . Guess its OK with Boris

It was your co-leaver who raised the subject of 'suicide' - not me...and both his comment and my response are clearly metaphorical.

And not 'gnarly' about Teapot - just thinking the pun was off the wrong title. So just checking.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...m-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/?removed These?

Is there any trend? Of course polls are just snapshots in time. Though if you take enough snapshots over a fairly short period of time you tend to get a picture forming - if there is one to see.

 

[Hacker Khan]

The last poll from 9th Sept shows 52% Remain, 48% Leave. Does that mean we can spend three years arguing over the result and then decide that Remaining is too difficult so we'll Leave?

Why not, if we play this right we can keep this going for decades and ensure that we mostly ignore anything else. Wasn't the EU something like the 5th most important factor to people in the GE before the Brexit vote? It's now the most important factor and the way we are going it may well be the only factor in any future votes if we stretch it out long enough

 

[Hacker Khan]

Is there any trend? Of course polls are just snapshots in time. Though if you take enough snapshots over a fairly short period of time you tend to get a picture forming - if there is one to see.

Not really, polls have been proven to be very wrong in the past and will no doubt be very wrong in the future. I was just linking to an aggregation of polls that superficially backs up Varadkar's words to a certain extent. Although as has been correctly pointed out, we can and no doubt will argue about margins for ever, depending on the point you are trying to prove.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Not really, polls have been proven to be very wrong in the past and will no doubt be very wrong in the future. I was just linking to an aggregation of polls that superficially backs up Varadkar's words to a certain extent. Although as has been correctly pointed out, we can argue about margins for ever.

48-52 either way is too close to call. Those sorts of numbers can easily be swung in a campaign. The interesting question on this would be out of those polled, how many are entrenched in their view, how many are swing voters?

 

[Hacker Khan]

48-52 either way is too close to call. Those sorts of numbers can easily be swung in a campaign. The interesting question on this would be out of those polled, how many are entrenched in their view, how many are swing voters?

In the current climate I'd guess 99.999% to 0.001?

 

[Lord Tyrion]

In the current climate I'd guess 99.999% to 0.001?

Sadly so. The key is probably what the question is? If it was the same question as before or a different one.