Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[jp5]

A strong case for the softer Norway style Brexit if Mrs May's deal doesn't go through, from someone you wouldn't expect to be making it!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1071735830526480384

 

[Sweep]

A strong case for the softer Norway style Brexit if Mrs May's deal doesn't go through, from someone you wouldn't expect to be making it!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1071735830526480384

As a regular importer from Norway, I would love to know what a Norway style agreement is, in practice.
The goods I purchase from Norway go though customs and duty is charged at WTO rates, just like if I import from China or the US. In fact if anything, importing from Norway is a lot more hassle than importing from anywhere else. I once tried to do a cross trade Norway to Germany. It took 4 weeks for one pallet to be delivered. I could have sent it from China quicker. German customs just couldn’t get their head around Norwegian goods sold from the UK to Germany. Now I just quote a lot more, import it into the UK, clear through UK (EU) customs and send to Germany.
In addition, when we send Norway stuff it seems to take forever. I am not sure why this is.
I have asked lots of people including customs agents and freight forwarders why we are paying duty and why the goods are being held up in customs, when all I hear about on TV is this Norway style agreement. All I get is a shrug of the shoulders.
Oh and a couple of other sticking point. EFTA doesn’t want us in. And seemingly we would have to accept FOM of people, services, finance and goods, though as you can see from my experience, the goods bit is ambiguous.

 

[Taz]

oh so true !!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1071743010495328261

 

[Sweep]

Indeed!

Which ones? Specific examples? It's no trick question! I'm simply trying to fully understand the actual problem that the UK is deemed to have regarding trading with the rest of the world, while also being in the EU.

I suspect the (real) answer would/will be an argument for why the EU is deemed to be 'protectionist' btw, so an opportunity for those who know the details to explain - compared to simply hearing and regurgitating emotive terms/phrases (propaganda!).

Oh, that is a massive question and would take another 10,000 posts to answer 😀. The rules are often different for different types of goods and which country you are dealing with. Some goods face quotas, others don’t. The bottom line is that the EU is trying to do free trade deals, but experiences difficulty because it also has to protect the industries in all the different countries. The UK doesn’t have the same scale of problem and is often better placed to do a deal because of connections like the Commonwealth etc.
Indeed, many UK industries have suffered or disappeared because of our membership of the EU, like shipbuilding for example. I recall Mrs T buying all the coal she needed from Germany when our miners went on strike. In addition we can’t put our own caps on imports from abroad. So when Far East imports are killing manufacturing at home, we don’t have the same control over how we deal with it and have to ask the EU to sort it.
So basically the EU, whilst trying to do free trade deals, is also protectionist. The following two passages are from their own website:
“With the rising threat of protectionism and weakened commitment of large players to global trade governance, the EU must take the lead.”
And in the very next paragraph...
“European jobs in industries... have been hurt by unfair competition from “dumped imports”, public subsidies and over capacity in some third countries. The EU uses instruments to shield European industries and jobs...”

So far I believe the EU have done a deal with Canada ( though as an importer and exporter I am still awaiting the details) and a deal with Japan is on the cards. What we do know is neither country has had to sign up to FOM or have the EU make their laws for them.
So, I guess it all comes down to whose deal you prefer. Do you want to hand the control of it to the EU and a “one size fits all” policy and hope the increased buying power gets you a better deal with third nations (no evidence of that as far as I can see) or do our own tailor made deals, with no worries about quotas imposed from elsewhere or protecting industries in other EU counties and at the same time dumping all the bad stuff that comes with EU membership.
And all that’s before I mention the paperwork that comes with selling duty free to other EU nations.

 

[Foxholer]

Oh, that is a massive question and would take another 10,000 posts to answer 😀. The rules are often different for different types of goods and which country you are dealing with. Some goods face quotas, others don’t. The bottom line is that the EU is trying to do free trade deals, but experiences difficulty because it also has to protect the industries in all the different countries. The UK doesn’t have the same scale of problem and is often better placed to do a deal because of connections like the Commonwealth etc.
Indeed, many UK industries have suffered or disappeared because of our membership of the EU, like shipbuilding for example. I recall Mrs T buying all the coal she needed from Germany when our miners went on strike. In addition we can’t put our own caps on imports from abroad. So when Far East imports are killing manufacturing at home, we don’t have the same control over how we deal with it and have to ask the EU to sort it.
So basically the EU, whilst trying to do free trade deals, is also protectionist. The following two passages are from their own website:
“With the rising threat of protectionism and weakened commitment of large players to global trade governance, the EU must take the lead.”
And in the very next paragraph...
“European jobs in industries... have been hurt by unfair competition from “dumped imports”, public subsidies and over capacity in some third countries. The EU uses instruments to shield European industries and jobs...”

So far I believe the EU have done a deal with Canada ( though as an importer and exporter I am still awaiting the details) and a deal with Japan is on the cards. What we do know is neither country has had to sign up to FOM or have the EU make their laws for them.
So, I guess it all comes down to whose deal you prefer. Do you want to hand the control of it to the EU and a “one size fits all” policy and hope the increased buying power gets you a better deal with third nations (no evidence of that as far as I can see) or do our own tailor made deals, with no worries about quotas imposed from elsewhere or protecting industries in other EU counties and at the same time dumping all the bad stuff that comes with EU membership.
And all that’s before I mention the paperwork that comes with selling duty free to other EU nations.

Thanks for the reply. I explains a little, but doesn't convince me that the 'antis' haven't been exaggerating the 'problem'! I've a few specific comments/questions that, given your import/export role, you might well placed to answer.

...The bottom line is that the EU is trying to do free trade deals, but experiences difficulty because it also has to protect the industries in all the different countries. The UK doesn’t have the same scale of problem and is often better placed to do a deal because of connections like the Commonwealth etc...

I certainly recognise those issues. As a Kiwi - and resident there at the time - I can remember the consequences of UK joining the Common Market. Similarly, I remember the major issues about Poland joining the EU was the effect on German Coal Workers! It's not unreasonable for the UK to 'selfishly' consider whether it's actually in UK's interest to be a 'member of the club'.

...
Indeed, many UK industries have suffered or disappeared because of our membership of the EU, like shipbuilding for example. I recall Mrs T buying all the coal she needed from Germany when our miners went on strike. ...
...

Sorry, but I don't believe the loss of Shipbuilding was caused by being a member of the EU! Thatcher's reaction was entirely predictable!

...
So when Far East imports are killing manufacturing at home, we don’t have the same control over how we deal with it and have to ask the EU to sort it.
...

So instead of the UK being protectionist, we request that the EU be protectionist?! H'mm! that sounds like being protectionist, but having 'someone else to blame'!! Doing it in the UK could be more focused, but it's (selfish) protectionism however it's done!

......
So basically the EU, whilst trying to do free trade deals, is also protectionist. The following two passages are from their own website:
“With the rising threat of protectionism and weakened commitment of large players to global trade governance, the EU must take the lead.”
And in the very next paragraph...
“European jobs in industries... have been hurt by unfair competition from “dumped imports”, public subsidies and over capacity in some third countries. The EU uses instruments to shield European industries and jobs...”
...

That 1st statement is faff!
Does/should anyone really have a problem with the 2nd paragraph? And would be exactly the same from a UK point of view - but obviously focused on UK industries and jobs!
My big fear is that many of the 'UK industries and jobs' are in UK to service the EU but sited in UK because of 'better' UK corporate regulation and would disappear from UK into somewhere (else) in EU should UK leave!

...
So far I believe the EU have done a deal with Canada ( though as an importer and exporter I am still awaiting the details) and a deal with Japan is on the cards. What we do know is neither country has had to sign up to FOM or have the EU make their laws for them.
So, I guess it all comes down to whose deal you prefer. Do you want to hand the control of it to the EU and a “one size fits all” policy and hope the increased buying power gets you a better deal with third nations (no evidence of that as far as I can see) or do our own tailor made deals, with no worries about quotas imposed from elsewhere or protecting industries in other EU counties and at the same time dumping all the bad stuff that comes with EU membership.
And all that’s before I mention the paperwork that comes with selling duty free to other EU nations.

Isn't it up to you to find out the details of the Canada agreement?

Yep! That 'one size fits all' may/may not be appropriate! But it also gets access to the trade with the entire EU free of tarrifs/quotas - surely a distinct benefit!

I agree that 'protecting industries in other EU countries' is a 'cost' as is 'all the bad stuff that comes with EU membership'. Much of that seems, to me, to be greatly exaggerated!

That, and many non-trade benefits vs costs, was the basis upon which I voted (Remain) in the referendum! I've definitely moved towards 'Leave' since, for several reasons including a couple of virtually unjustifiable ones!

 

[ColchesterFC]

That, and many non-trade benefits vs costs, was the basis upon which I voted (Remain) in the referendum! I've definitely moved towards 'Leave' since, for several reasons including a couple of virtually unjustifiable ones!

What do you think are the non-trade benefits of being in the EU? Interested to know if they are general, as in good for the whole of the UK. or personal, as in good for you.

And what are the unjustifiable reasons for moving towards Leave?

 

[Foxholer]

What do you think are the non-trade benefits of being in the EU? Interested to know if they are general, as in good for the whole of the UK. or personal, as in good for you.

And what are the unjustifiable reasons for moving towards Leave?

Well, the Four Freedoms certainly work both ways!

I almost always consider the 'general' view - and normally specify when an opinion/benefit is specific to me! Certain;ly, in this case, my view is for the UK in its entirety (even including 'Doon')!

And it was 'virtually unjustifiable'! Kindly get your quotes right! Consequentially, I'm not inclined to specify them as I suspect you'll misuse them - and they are, after all, personal!

 

[ColchesterFC]

Well, the Four Freedoms certainly work both ways!

I almost always consider the 'general' view - and normally specify when an opinion/benefit is specific to me! Certain;ly, in this case, my view is for the UK in its entirety (even including 'Doon')!

And it was 'virtually unjustifiable'! Kindly get your quotes right! Consequentially, I'm not inclined to specify them as I suspect you'll misuse them - and they are, after all, personal!

That's fair enough. Was just interested that's all - didn't intentionally mean to misquote you - I wasn't looking to use or misuse them. Was just interested in what reasons (virtually unjustifiable or otherwise) someone who voted remain might have for moving towards leave. Thought it would be an interesting conversation.

From my side of things there is one big personal non-trade benefit of us being in the EU. Approximately 80% of my work is in other EU countries and with the UK being a member of the EU I can travel and work freely without any checks. Not sure what will happen when we leave but hopefully an agreement will be reached to allow me to continue.

 

[Beezerk]

What cliff is that, then?

 

[Foxholer]

That's fair enough. Was just interested that's all - didn't intentionally mean to misquote you - I wasn't looking to use or misuse them. Was just interested in what reasons (virtually unjustifiable or otherwise) someone who voted remain might have for moving towards leave. Thought it would be an interesting conversation.

From my side of things there is one big personal non-trade benefit of us being in the EU. Approximately 80% of my work is in other EU countries and with the UK being a member of the EU I can travel and work freely without any checks. Not sure what will happen when we leave but hopefully an agreement will be reached to allow me to continue.

No prob! Unfortunately, it seems to me that actual logic has disappeared from the debate! The 'virtully unjustifiable' reasons are really only 'gut feels' about attitudes by the EU, reinforced by similar intransigent attitudes bt EU negotiators! I'm inclined to believe that either UK negotiators didn't realise the UK's strengths or the EU negptiators were simply intransigent - and the Irish border was simply means to frustrate the entire negotiation!

I was a 'marginal' Remain voter who has become a 'marginal albeit determined' Leave one!

In your case, I'd expect to see lots of stamps in your Passport!

 

[User62651]

Anyone see the channel4 debate? Imo big loser was Labour's guy, incoherent vagueness, other 3 got their view and position over quite well. Didnt think the show helped May at all wrt Tuesday's vote in commons however..

 

[ColchesterFC]

No prob! Unfortunately, it seems to me that actual logic has disappeared from the debate! The 'virtully unjustifiable' reasons are really only 'gut feels' about attitudes by the EU, reinforced by similar intransigent attitudes bt EU negotiators! I'm inclined to believe that either UK negotiators didn't realise the UK's strengths or the EU negptiators were simply intransigent - and the Irish border was simply means to frustrate the entire negotiation!

I was a 'marginal' Remain voter who has become a 'marginal albeit determined' Leave one!

In your case, I'd expect to see lots of stamps in your Passport!

I know what you mean about the attitude of the EU and their negotiations. I've wavered myself from originally being in favour of remain during the first vote to undecided as to how I'd vote if there was a second referendum. I pointed out previously that almost everything the EU demanded was included in the legally binding withdrawal agreement while almost everything the UK wanted is in the Political Declaration that isn't legally enforceable. I'm certainly tempted to switch my support to leave purely because of how badly I believe the government has handled the negotiations and my suspicion that it was done deliberately to stop us actually leaving. Yes, a No Deal Brexit would adversely impact on my ability to work in the EU (for a short period at least) but that would be balanced by EU citizens having the same problem with coming to work in the UK so I would pick up more work in the UK.

As an aside, were Pritti Patel's comments really that outrageous. They might have been poorly worded but were they actually worse than Macron saying that UK citizens would need a visa to travel to France, threatening to hold up UK lorries at French ports or saying that he would block a trade deal unless French fishing boats were allowed in to UK waters after Brexit? It seems that when it's someone that supports Brexit suggesting something that it's automatically "outrageous" but when it's someone from the other side it's dismissed as "well of course that's what will happen. It was our choice to leave".

 

[Sweep]

Thanks for the reply. I explains a little, but doesn't convince me that the 'antis' haven't been exaggerating the 'problem'! I've a few specific comments/questions that, given your import/export role, you might well placed to answer.


I certainly recognise those issues. As a Kiwi - and resident there at the time - I can remember the consequences of UK joining the Common Market. Similarly, I remember the major issues about Poland joining the EU was the effect on German Coal Workers! It's not unreasonable for the UK to 'selfishly' consider whether it's actually in UK's interest to be a 'member of the club'.

Sorry, but I don't believe the loss of Shipbuilding was caused by being a member of the EU! Thatcher's reaction was entirely predictable!
As this is an industry I supply, I can categorically confirm the loss of the shipbuilding industry was caused by being a member of the EU. To be fair, the UK govt failed to help a number of industries against cheap imports prior to us joining the EEC (the textile industry is a prime example) but once we were in we found we had much less ability to act.

So instead of the UK being protectionist, we request that the EU be protectionist?! H'mm! that sounds like being protectionist, but having 'someone else to blame'!! Doing it in the UK could be more focused, but it's (selfish) protectionism however it's done!
That is not what I said and I agree that in doing trade deals at all a certain amount of protectionism is required, unless everyone accepts 100% free trade. As that is a campaign that has been running for around 200 years it’s not likely to happen. However the EU has a broader range of industries to protect, meaning less choice for the EU consumer or higher prices.
That 1st statement is faff!
Does/should anyone really have a problem with the 2nd paragraph? And would be exactly the same from a UK point of view - but obviously focused on UK industries and jobs!
Much of their stuff is faff. I only posted both paragraphs to illustrate their dilemma and how it affects their dealing strategy.

My big fear is that many of the 'UK industries and jobs' are in UK to service the EU but sited in UK because of 'better' UK corporate regulation and would disappear from UK into somewhere (else) in EU should UK leave!
This is a fair concern. It would be foolish to think that there will be no consequences, though I doubt the reality will be anything like the levels of project fear. There will be adjustment and new trading partners will need services. Of course, strictly speaking corporate regulation should be the same across the whole of the EU so in theory no-one should be in the UK whilst it is in the EU for that reason alone, but I take your point.


Isn't it up to you to find out the details of the Canada agreement?

There is not much point in doing a trade agreement if you don’t tell anyone. The EU does not communicate with UK businesses directly. The UK government does that.
Yep! That 'one size fits all' may/may not be appropriate! But it also gets access to the trade with the entire EU free of tarrifs/quotas - surely a distinct benefit!
I agree. As I have already said, if the EU was still just a trading deal, I doubt anyone would have voted to leave. However, the trading deal is not perfect as I think I have illustrated and the EU is about so much more than that now. So the question is, is the trade deal worth everything else? There is no doubt that my business benefits from the trade deal. My job will become much harder without it. But sometimes you have to vote for what is good for your country than what is better for you. There is no doubt in my mind that all the other stuff is not a price worth paying for the trade deal. That is why I voted to leave.
I agree that 'protecting industries in other EU countries' is a 'cost' as is 'all the bad stuff that comes with EU membership'. Much of that seems, to me, to be greatly exaggerated!

Everything is exaggerated, including the benefits of remaining. FYI a typical WTO duty of 6.5% is not the biggest concern for business so free trade is not the be all and end all. More important now is the time goods are held up in customs. No-one can deliver early these days and no-one orders in time.
That, and many non-trade benefits vs costs, was the basis upon which I voted (Remain) in the referendum! I've definitely moved towards 'Leave' since, for several reasons including a couple of virtually unjustifiable ones!

I believe that the apparent attempted stitch up by all parties in parliament and the EU to stop us from leaving has incensed a large number of voters. For me, democracy was my number one reason for voting to leave and if democracy fails us I believe it will be catastrophic for this country. Our politicians are playing with fire. They must not fail us on this decision. Democracy must prevail or we are on very dangerous ground. I would hold the same view if we had voted to remain and indeed I would campaign for the result to be upheld.

 

[Sweep]

Sorry Foxholer, the way I have answered your points may require you to expand my reply above.

 

[Blue in Munich]

I know what you mean about the attitude of the EU and their negotiations. I've wavered myself from originally being in favour of remain during the first vote to undecided as to how I'd vote if there was a second referendum. I pointed out previously that almost everything the EU demanded was included in the legally binding withdrawal agreement while almost everything the UK wanted is in the Political Declaration that isn't legally enforceable. I'm certainly tempted to switch my support to leave purely because of how badly I believe the government has handled the negotiations and my suspicion that it was done deliberately to stop us actually leaving. Yes, a No Deal Brexit would adversely impact on my ability to work in the EU (for a short period at least) but that would be balanced by EU citizens having the same problem with coming to work in the UK so I would pick up more work in the UK.

As an aside, were Pritti Patel's comments really that outrageous. They might have been poorly worded but were they actually worse than Macron saying that UK citizens would need a visa to travel to France, threatening to hold up UK lorries at French ports or saying that he would block a trade deal unless French fishing boats were allowed in to UK waters after Brexit? It seems that when it's someone that supports Brexit suggesting something that it's automatically "outrageous" but when it's someone from the other side it's dismissed as "well of course that's what will happen. It was our choice to leave".

Quite ironic reading this. Whilst I didn't have great issue with the Common Market aspect of the EU, I had little time for the political aspects and aspirations to build a federal republic of Europe. Someone said to me a while ago that we were like the in-laws of Europe; whilst we'd married into the family, we weren't and never would truly be part of the family. It struck a chord with me and from things I'd seen & heard, I felt that we could be better off being free to organise our own future as I felt that the EU didn't best serve all our interests, just the interests of some of the members. I also had an intense dislike of the way in which rules & regulations appeared to be enforced or ignored as it suited certain members. So I was all in favour of Leave and voted that way.

Having now seen the absolute Horlicks that this shower have made of the negotiations, by design in my opinion, I would now consider changing my vote to remain because I wouldn't trust them to look after our best interests if we did get out. I'm absolutely convinced that they have engineered the situation we find ourselves of potentially being offered a second vote of No Deal or No Brexit, because it better serves their own interests.

My father used to say that the only man that ever entered the Houses of Parliament with decent intentions was Guy Fawkes; the older I've got and the longer that this farce in particular has rolled on, the more truth I see in that.

 

[Mudball]

I know what you mean about the attitude of the EU and their negotiations. I've wavered myself from originally being in favour of remain during the first vote to undecided as to how I'd vote if there was a second referendum. I pointed out previously that almost everything the EU demanded was included in the legally binding withdrawal agreement while almost everything the UK wanted is in the Political Declaration that isn't legally enforceable. I'm certainly tempted to switch my support to leave purely because of how badly I believe the government has handled the negotiations and my suspicion that it was done deliberately to stop us actually leaving. Yes, a No Deal Brexit would adversely impact on my ability to work in the EU (for a short period at least) but that would be balanced by EU citizens having the same problem with coming to work in the UK so I would pick up more work in the UK.

As an aside, were Pritti Patel's comments really that outrageous. They might have been poorly worded but were they actually worse than Macron saying that UK citizens would need a visa to travel to France, threatening to hold up UK lorries at French ports or saying that he would block a trade deal unless French fishing boats were allowed in to UK waters after Brexit? It seems that when it's someone that supports Brexit suggesting something that it's automatically "outrageous" but when it's someone from the other side it's dismissed as "well of course that's what will happen. It was our choice to leave".

1) So are you blaming the EU for the incompetence of our negotiators? The Irish situation is to keep the union together, so if we want different laws then it is upto us. Dont blame the EU for wanting to keep the ball from it. If tomorrow we want to leave the UN or WTO or NATO dont expect to keep the good bits like security while wanting to not contribute via monies or other commitments.

2) You want to leave just because you want to send a message to the govt for their mishandling... Ahh the irony. IIRC, there were a number of cases of people (including some of my friends) who voted Leave because they wanted to send a message to our politicians but at the same time they did not want to leave.. How that has backfired. So I look forward to another set of people who 'want to send a message' even though they think otherwise.. Bring the popcorn, roll on the next referendum. Cant wait to hear Dimbles say we have an undecided vote as Remain has become Leave and Leave have Remained.

 

[Imurg]

Well, the fertiliser hits the spinny thing....
Euro court rules that UK can change its mind on Brexit as long as there is a democratic process - vote in parliament, referendum or general election.

 

[Hobbit]

Well, the fertiliser hits the spinny thing....
Euro court rules that UK can change its mind on Brexit as long as there is a democratic process - vote in parliament, referendum or general election.

Quite ironic really. “Federal rule doesn’t exist” but here we are having Europe determine what can happen in U.K. politics. Surely the decision to rescind Brexit should be made In Westminster then the PM should ask the EU can it be done.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Interesting to hear repeated conspiracy theories over how we have deliberately messed up the negotiations. Now I suppose that could be true, we could have gone into this with absolutely no intention of leaving. But on the other hand might a more, dare I say logical or sane explanation be that we were never in a strong negotiating position as we never had, and I doubt never will have, anywhere near an unified position ourselves to start with.

Fully admit that we have made a bad situation even worse with some of our negotiating tactics, I'd argue mostly by too much pandering to the hard right, but we are straying dangerously close to the tin foil hat brigade if we think it is all a conspiracy.

 

[Hacker Khan]

I know what you mean about the attitude of the EU and their negotiations. I've wavered myself from originally being in favour of remain during the first vote to undecided as to how I'd vote if there was a second referendum. I pointed out previously that almost everything the EU demanded was included in the legally binding withdrawal agreement while almost everything the UK wanted is in the Political Declaration that isn't legally enforceable. I'm certainly tempted to switch my support to leave purely because of how badly I believe the government has handled the negotiations and my suspicion that it was done deliberately to stop us actually leaving. Yes, a No Deal Brexit would adversely impact on my ability to work in the EU (for a short period at least) but that would be balanced by EU citizens having the same problem with coming to work in the UK so I would pick up more work in the UK.

As an aside, were Pritti Patel's comments really that outrageous. They might have been poorly worded but were they actually worse than Macron saying that UK citizens would need a visa to travel to France, threatening to hold up UK lorries at French ports or saying that he would block a trade deal unless French fishing boats were allowed in to UK waters after Brexit? It seems that when it's someone that supports Brexit suggesting something that it's automatically "outrageous" but when it's someone from the other side it's dismissed as "well of course that's what will happen. It was our choice to leave".

I think people were upset due to the lack of knowledge of Ms Patel of the historical damage the Irish suffered during the famines. So in my humble opinion yes she was making a very poor comment with a complete lack of tact or context to forward her ideological belief in a hard brexit. Yes worse things happen at sea, but if she is an example of the new breed of politician that will be taking back control then I'd rather we don't.