WW3 -All Russia / Ukraine stuff here please-

[Ser Shankalot]

I think what might cut into Putin's popularity is that many many Russians and Ukrainians share close individual family and friendship bonds over decades. This is not Russia invading and levelling Afghanistan or Syria. Interesting interview on the radio yesterday morning with a long-time UK based Ukrainian lady with family in both countries, saying for the first time her Russian relatives are realizing that state TV isn't giving them the full picture - just purely by talking to their Ukrainian relatives.

It might not be military losses or economic sanctions or geopolitics that eventually brings him down, but eventually ordinary family ties.

 

[road2ruin]

I noticed the position taken with China, they abstained at the UN Security Council rather than support Russia and vote against the resolution condemning their actions. They have also been quietly prodding with messages about peace being the only option. This could be massive as I suspet Putin assumed China would be a solid ally in this.

I know that China aren't blameless in things (see Taiwan) however I would suspect that their main objective is economic domination and they can't do that if the world is a radioactive mess, hopefully their support (or lack thereof) will start to be a larger negative and either Putin comes to his senses or someone does it for him.

 

[Smiffy]

Simple question. Russia/Putin takes Kiev. What next?

He'll have a crack at a Nato country. Just to finish it off

 

[Swango1980]

I know that China aren't blameless in things (see Taiwan) however I would suspect that their main objective is economic domination and they can't do that if the world is a radioactive mess, hopefully their support (or lack thereof) will start to be a larger negative and either Putin comes to his senses or someone does it for him.

Yeah. Presumably for China to build their economy rapidly, they'd ideally like strong relations with the richer western countries, rather than teaming up with an economically crippled Russia.

I still suspect that, in these early stages they were quite happy for Russia to score a huge own goal and significantly weaken them, making China a much stronger force in Asia. However, now that significant damage has clearly been done, I can imagine China withdrawing their support of Russia, even if that is in the form of putting a hand round their shoulder and asking them to calm down as a mate. By doing this, they get to earn some brownie points with the west. By doing nothing, the west are likely to become more weary of China, which will be the least of China's worries if full scale war begins.

 

[Jimaroid]

And Moshiri is chairman of USM. The ties go much deeper and wider, we are covered in dirt.

"The Club can confirm that it has suspended with immediate effect all commercial sponsorship arrangements with the Russian companies USM, Megafon and Yota."

Weasel words though I feel - suspended can mean many things.

 

[GB72]

OK now reports that Russia have locked up primary school children for anti was protesting.

 

[Swango1980]

OK now reports that Russia have locked up primary school children for anti was protesting.

Yeah, and likely true as verified by a Nobel prize-winning paper Novoya Gazeta. It makes you wonder, do the Russian police have a heart? Surely they do not actually have the same mindset as Putin, or at least a lot of them. So, I wonder if many of them are thinking "why the hell am I locking up children, what has my life become!?"

 

[Swango1980]

Can the Premier League end broadcasting in Russia? I'd imagine if major sports franchises were able to end broadcasting in Russia entirely, that would hurt. Imagine big Russian football fans not getting to watch the Premier League, Serie A or La Liga. Or motorsport fans not being able to watch F1 or MotoGP.

 

[greenone]

He'll have a crack at a Nato country. Just to finish it off

Taking a city is one thing, keeping control is a completely different thing. Just look at Afghanistan and Iraq.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Taking a city is one thing, keeping control is a completely different thing. Just look at Afghanistan and Iraq.

He is having enough trouble taking a City at the moment

And he certainly won’t move onto a NATO country

 

[drdel]

He is having enough trouble taking a City at the moment

And he certainly won’t move onto a NATO country

I would not put your shirt on it - there's not much logic going on at the moment and plenty of his cronies are pushing him for a harder line.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

I would not put your shirt on it - there's not much logic going on at the moment and plenty of his cronies are pushing him for a harder line.

Putin won’t go near a NATO country - it’s a loss straight away , it would serve him no purpose . We had decades of the Cold War and further on and russia still didn’t step up to go into a NATO country - that just gives NATO the ammunition and the just cause.

 

[GB72]

Nto sure if it is a worry or a relief, could work either way, but the view seems to be at the moment that the Russian ground forces and non nuclear forces in general do not appear to be the massive threat to Western Europe that they were assumed to be. Did I read that somthing like 60% of Russia's ground troops were on the borders for this invasion. OK the nuclear side remains very scary for someone like me who lived through cold war one and the concern is that this is where they will go if this ever escalates but the ground capabilities do not seem as frightening as I always thought.

 

[stefanovic]

Putin won’t go near a NATO country - it’s a loss straight away , it would serve him no purpose . We had decades of the Cold War and further on and russia still didn’t step up to go into a NATO country - that just gives NATO the ammunition and the just cause.

They invaded Czechoslovakia and Hungary.

 

[GB72]

OK, I will admit that circumstances mean that it may have been a safe and prudent move with air superiority but a 40 mile, slow moving convoy on open roads with the bulk of your ground forces. Again, no expert, but that seems like a turkey shoot for a nato air force.

 

[Swango1980]

Nto sure if it is a worry or a relief, could work either way, but the view seems to be at the moment that the Russian ground forces and non nuclear forces in general do not appear to be the massive threat to Western Europe that they were assumed to be. Did I read that somthing like 60% of Russia's ground troops were on the borders for this invasion. OK the nuclear side remains very scary for someone like me who lived through cold war one and the concern is that this is where they will go if this ever escalates but the ground capabilities do not seem as frightening as I always thought.

Don't worry. Liverpoolphil has confirmed that Russia will not use nuclear weapons, so we are safe on that front.

I'm not sure about ground forces, but the US Air Force is, head and shoulders larger than any other air force in the world. Russia is second, but of course there are the other NATO countries to add to the mix.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

They invaded Czechoslovakia and Hungary.

One in 1948 and one in 1956 when neither country was a part of NATO - both joined after the Cold War

OK, I will admit that circumstances mean that it may have been a safe and prudent move with air superiority but a 40 mile, slow moving convoy on open roads with the bulk of your ground forces. Again, no expert, but that seems like a turkey shoot for a nato air force.

The Russian Navy and Air Force are still pretty strong but not at the level of NATO forces, the issue with the ground forces are they are mainly conscripts which at the end of the day won’t ever be the most professional. They won’t want to be facing NATO ground forces.

 

[GB72]

Don't worry. Liverpoolphil has confirmed that Russia will not use nuclear weapons, so we are safe on that front.

I'm not sure about ground forces, but the US Air Force is, head and shoulders larger than any other air force in the world. Russia is second, but of course there are the other NATO countries to add to the mix.

I was always brought up with the undestanding and fear that a wave of Russian ground forces and tanks could sweep across Western Europe. From what I have seen so far, they would have troiuble getting as far as western europe let alone sweeping across it.

 

[stefanovic]

One in 1948 and one in 1956 when neither country was a part of NATO - both joined after the Cold War

I acknowledge that but it does illustrate how far Russia will go.
BTW As for Britain it might be easier to find what countries we didn't invade.

Britain Has Invaded All but 22 Countries (kottke.org)

 

[Swango1980]

I was always brought up with the undestanding and fear that a wave of Russian ground forces and tanks could sweep across Western Europe. From what I have seen so far, they would have troiuble getting as far as western europe let alone sweeping across it.

Well, (thanks Google), Russia has 900,000 active military personel (5 times more than Ukraine). 200,000 were stationed around Ukraine. Its airforce has 1,300 aircraft and 500 helicopters. The US military alone has 1.4 million active personnel, 500,000 more than Russia. It has over 13,000 aircraft.

I guess it would be a tough war for us if it was just western Europe v Russia. But, because NATO includes the USA, it does help that the US are the biggest spenders in their military. It spends more than double of the rest of NATO combined.