Weather forecasts

[Deleted member 15344]

Because the plans we had for today are on hold because it's howling down when the apps said it wouldn't rain until much later in the day - that's why!

Is it not possible the reason why is because the weather changed quickly and the wind changed and the clouds built up - just like it does on a regular basis in the U.K.

A quick look at the met office shows heavy rain clouds over Northumberland area until 12 but scattered and the radar picture backs that up as well - is that not what's happening then ?

 

[Imurg]

Is it not possible the reason why is because the weather changed quickly and the wind changed and the clouds built up - just like it does on a regular basis in the U.K.

Is it not possible that they simply got it wrong?

 

[guest100718]

you know the weather has to stop somewhere right.......

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Is it not possible that they simply got it wrong?

Of course it is - because that's the weather and it's impossible to predict and when it does changes I would have thought most would understand that when it comes to organising days out. I guess it doesn't take much to understand that the weather over the past 3/4 weeks has been changing constantly hour by hour. But that's not the fault of forecasters

 

[Imurg]

Doesn't it imply that their forecasting models and methods aren't up to scratch?
They've been doing this for years. They have state of the art technology at their disposal. And they still get it wrong.
I know weather is unpredictable.
If it's as unpredictable as they seem to be showing, why are they bothering to try?
A forecast in any walk of life that says one thing when another happens is a waste of time
Maybe they should just all pack up and go home if weather is that unpredictable...

 

[rudebhoy]

Of course it is - because that's the weather and it's impossible to predict and when it does changes I would have thought most would understand that when it comes to organising days out. I guess it doesn't take much to understand that the weather over the past 3/4 weeks has been changing constantly hour by hour. But that's not the fault of forecasters

Are you a weather forecaster?

i remember reading a claim recently that weather forecasts are much more accurate now than they were 20 years ago. If that's the case, they must have been wrong 95% of the time back then!

Where I am, the forecast was light showers this morning. It has chucked it down non-stop since I got up 3 hours ago.

 

[Jacko_G]

Stick your head out of the window and decide.

If your head isn't wet pack your waterproof gear, if its wet, wear your waterproof gear.

 

[Orikoru]

Stick your head out of the window and decide.

If your head isn't wet pack your waterproof gear, if its wet, wear your waterproof gear.

More accurately, if you live and play in England, have your waterproof jacket in the bag 100% of the time.

 

[Jacko_G]

More accurately, if you live and play in England, have your waterproof jacket in the bag 100% of the time.

well I'm goosed being on the west coast of Scotland, guess I'd better just wear my thermals too!

 

[pogle]

BBC app says light fluffy cloud with a sun behind it - it's howling down...

Would you accept that level of forecasting in another area of volatility - like the stock market?

You are joking, aren't you? The results of forecasting in the stock market are lamentable. Time and time again, it's been shown that buying an index tracker is better than buying actively managed funds.

 

[Hacker Khan]

You need to look at the resolution you are wanting a forecast for. As computers get more and more powerful they can more accurately model the atmosphere down to a more granular level. So you will get more and more accurate forecasts at the level of a golf course, but we are not there yet.

Some days are easy, lots of high pressure, warm and sunny, piece of cake. But if you have the situation like we have now where the jet stream is firing in depressions straight over us all the time, then saying exactly when it will rain or not at your golf course anything over a handful of hours in advance is very difficult. I would recommend Dark Skies as others have said for a pretty accurate very short term local forecast.

 

[rudebhoy]

Left home at 12.15 to go for a game. the forecast then was heavy rain 12-2, then showers. that forecast was issued at 12.00.

There was a heavy shower on the way to the course but it had stopped by the time I got there just after 12.30. Teed off at 12.45, never saw a drop of rain all the way round, was wall to wall sunshine. I don't know why I even bother to check them any more.

 

[Orikoru]

Left home at 12.15 to go for a game. the forecast then was heavy rain 12-2, then showers. that forecast was issued at 12.00.

There was a heavy shower on the way to the course but it had stopped by the time I got there just after 12.30. Teed off at 12.45, never saw a drop of rain all the way round, was wall to wall sunshine. I don't know why I even bother to check them any more.

I think the only level of accuracy you can expect is - if it says no rain all day then you can reasonably expect it not to rain - if it says a shower at any point during the day then you can expect it to rain at some point in the day. Could be any time though. That's about it.

 

[Pin-seeker]

I use the BBC weather app.
Tried a few & they're all pants tbh.

 

[HomerJSimpson]

I simply carry a brolly in the bag along with waterproofs at all time unless we have a heatwave similar to the one we had what seems ages ago now. That way, always prepared