SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
And in addition, NHS Direct, known as NHS Redirect amongst doctors, and later 111 started to send loads of unnecessary patients to EDs, whilst the ability to staff medical posts dropped due to a variety of changes enacted by Govt. And the same in GP land where pressure on appointments due to staffing and incased bureaucracy, as well as bed blockage because of reduced social provision all conspired together.
As for your 2003/4 jump, which you attribute to EU expansion, and which is obviously wildly improbable to be due to that, the King's Fund says:
In 2003/4, the number of attendances jumped – by nearly 18 per cent – to 16.5 million. This reflects the decision around this time to incorporate data relating to attendances at walk-in centres and minor injuries units (referred to as ‘type 3 units’ in the figures). These aimed to improve patients’ access to primary care, modernise the NHS to be more responsive to patients’ busy lifestyles, and offer patients more choice (Monitor 2014).
But I think you knew that.
Similar counting tricks have been played since, for example requiring GP admissions to be admitted via A&E even though they don't see a doctor there, as well as ways Trusts inflate figures to show greater levels of activity to attract funding and meet targets. Some of these numbers are not real.
The A&E crisis is NOT due to immigrants.
So where did the the additional 5.1 million come from? You seem to take any view other than immigration, do you not attribute any rise in numbers due to it?