Golf Betting

To be honest, I can't see past the front three in the betting this week. Day, McIlroy and Spieth all have good records at TPC Boston and with the world number one spot up for grabs, I can see all three battling it out on Sunday.

Therefore I don't think i'm going to have a bet this week, instead i'll just enjoy watching the three best players in the world hopefully go hammer and tongues.
 
Momentum always plays apart in the closing stages of the FedEx Cup, so I'm happy to side with some upwardly mobile players this week. Conway Farms isn't the toughest course in the world, but strong winds will make this a test, especially with small 5,000 sq.ft greens.

The BMW Championship this week on the PGA Tour. Expect Jim Furyk to be in the mix, and his wins since 2010 have all been at sub 30/1 price points. I also like the look of Kevin Kisner this week at 60/1. Neat and tidy, and a player that has shown he can mix it in the big tournaments.

The 'Big 3' all have their merits, with Spieth at 12s almost offering some value.

However I'm with Zach Johnson (25s), Matt Kuchar (a fleeting 40s with Ladbrokes), and Hunter Mahan (66s).
 
Tour Championship

Driving accuracy seems a total thing of the past on the PGA Tour with inaccurate bombers dominating again last week. However if there is one-track that might catch them out it's East Lake. Greens described as treacherous as nearby Augusta make shots from off the fairway an issue, especially as the Meyer Zoyziagrass grass promotes flyers. Hopefully we might get some different characters contending this week.

I'm keeping it simple with Rickie Fowler, who for me, is the most likely (apart from JD) to have the fortitude and skills to tame East Lake and capture the biggest prize of his career. His putting on the MiniVerde Bermuda greens of TPC Sawgrass hasn't been too shabby in-recent history.

I'm covering Henrik Stenson for obvious reasons and like the look of Patrick Reed (winner at Sedgefield) who likes tougher tests. Conditions will be fast on Thursday and hopefully the light rain forecast for Friday is light, keeping this a real test for all 72 holes. That plays to Reed's strength's who actually straightened himself out between Boston and Chicago. We all know how well he scrambles and putts on Bermuda.
 
Euro: On a course that's more or less new to everyone, these guys performed well last week so might be in form, so its difficult to justify such long odds. Small monies on these

Lagergren 125
Lundberg 200
Bjerregard 125

US small monies on Reed and Haas, but realistically its hard to look beyond Day/Rory ftw, so Ive put doubles down each way with a few on the euro tour and hope for a place.

BTW had ~£130 wins last two weekends on about 15 quid stakes.
 
Big D 88 said:
I too have Reed this week

Oosthuizen 45/1
Reed 45/1
Casey 45/1

European tour

Jaidee 50/1
Bourdy 50/1
Aphibarnrat 60/1
Click to expand...

Boom Jaidee!!!
And a few quid return from casey albeit his tie for 5th was shared God knows how many times.
Still...thongchai strikes again. Stop off at corals, collect winnings then take the better half out for some dinner!
 
Bjeergaards place also split heavily unfortunately, still made my stake back, got the doubles all wrong! Bjeergaards partner flunked while the others placed. Nature of the beast :)

This was my first season betting on golf and I quite enjoyed it and definitely made a few quid along the way. Thanks to Big D, Bamford and KJT for your insights, although I didn't always follow yere leads I certainly appreciated the tips on how to pick a winner. For me this year two things prevailed, current form and course form. Sounds silly obvious but there were a lot of names cropping up weeks in a row, then falling away, and if someone has a fantastic course record even if they're not on form they're worth a small bet, it's clear certain courses suit a players eye and if he carries good memories of last season he can beat the form book and win at high odds, sometimes as a first round leader place or the tournament.

Oh and luck. You need luck. Like they do. :)
 
Curls said:
Bjeergaards place also split heavily unfortunately, still made my stake back, got the doubles all wrong! Bjeergaards partner flunked while the others placed. Nature of the beast :)

This was my first season betting on golf and I quite enjoyed it and definitely made a few quid along the way. Thanks to Big D, Bamford and KJT for your insights, although I didn't always follow yere leads I certainly appreciated the tips on how to pick a winner. For me this year two things prevailed, current form and course form. Sounds silly obvious but there were a lot of names cropping up weeks in a row, then falling away, and if someone has a fantastic course record even if they're not on form they're worth a small bet, it's clear certain courses suit a players eye and if he carries good memories of last season he can beat the form book and win at high odds, sometimes as a first round leader place or the tournament.

Oh and luck. You need luck. Like they do. :)
Click to expand...

Thanks Curls :)
 
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. A real birdie-fest which covers 3 courses namely Carnoustie, Kingsbarns and host course St Andrews. 168 players and a Pro-Am format is a weird set-up; but with fine weather forecast and relatively easy pin placements scoring again will be low.

So let's look at some players who thrive in this format and cover some angles off. I'm therefore backing Danny Willett (20/1), Thomas Pieters (40/1), Peter Uihlein (50/1) with Raphael Jacquelin (140/1) and Bradley Dredge (200/1).
 
Curls said:
Bjeergaards place also split heavily unfortunately, still made my stake back, got the doubles all wrong! Bjeergaards partner flunked while the others placed. Nature of the beast :)

This was my first season betting on golf and I quite enjoyed it and definitely made a few quid along the way. Thanks to Big D, Bamford and KJT for your insights, although I didn't always follow yere leads I certainly appreciated the tips on how to pick a winner. For me this year two things prevailed, current form and course form. Sounds silly obvious but there were a lot of names cropping up weeks in a row, then falling away, and if someone has a fantastic course record even if they're not on form they're worth a small bet, it's clear certain courses suit a players eye and if he carries good memories of last season he can beat the form book and win at high odds, sometimes as a first round leader place or the tournament.

Oh and luck. You need luck. Like they do. :)
Click to expand...

Cheers Curls

I think between us we did alright over the season, there's still a few betting opportunities to come

European Tour

Levy 80/1
Hatton 80/1
Aphibarnrat 125/1
Colsaerts 125/1
Bourdy 150/1
 
Yeow! Thunder buddies for life :)

When he went -4 at Carnoustie I was questioning the logic of 80/1, put £2e/w so that's another 200 in the kitty. Pity none of Soren, Dunne and Dredge could place at 60, 175 and 175 but a good weekends work I reckon
 
Following this thread with some interest. After keeping up my European fantasy team all season it gave me an added interest in all tournaments. I think I will get involved in some golf betting going forward to add to this. Normally stick to the majors for golf and footie bets on a weekend. Always nice to take some cash from the bookies.

Might as well start with next weeks masters. Any tips? :cool:
 
Farneyman said:
Following this thread with some interest. After keeping up my European fantasy team all season it gave me an added interest in all tournaments. I think I will get involved in some golf betting going forward to add to this. Normally stick to the majors for golf and footie bets on a weekend. Always nice to take some cash from the bookies.

Might as well start with next weeks masters. Any tips? :cool:
Click to expand...

All advice is my own, and can be easily countered with "a fool and his money" and "the house always wins", so only bet what you can afford to. It's a great buzz to win, if you get down about losing or worried about the money then this aint the game for you. I reckon there's much better money to be made in Golf than Footie, purely imo.

First off, set yourself a kitty and don't exceed it, you must accept that some weekends you'll completely wipe out. Make your bets and live with it, don't try to get the house back betting on the weekend, there's always next weekend!

My tactic is to bet small, each way, on a few outsiders. Favourites placing never win you anything at 1/4 odds unless you're betting big, though that might be youre preferred route. There's plenty value to be had down the list but you have to spread the bets. Look at Big Ds tips this season, often picks a place or winner but then he's betting on 10 guys across both tours and as long as they're smart bets thats much more likely to win or at least place than lumping it on one guy. Sure Speith and Day won a lot this year, but neither were at good prices and if you happened to bet on Jordan those few times he didn't perform you'd be down plenty. If you really really think a short odds guy has a chance then cover yourself with something small bt maybe wait until Thursday or even Friday evening, if they're a bit behind you'll get better odds on them, the thinking is that they get moving on Saturday while the early leaders falter. I've had a couple of good wins this season by holding back some kitty until Friday morning. Half the field goes out and starts putting numbers on the board, their odds begin to shorten. Someone who you fancy before the tournament had a decent day yesterday but looks like they're being left behind - only cos they haven't hit a ball yet! They throw in a 65 and you've had them at longer odds than they started the tournament, despite not exactly tanking in the first round. Sure you're only getting 5 places instead of 6, but quite often there will be a tie for 2, 3 or 4 and the place money is split between how many guys have tied for it. This is just how the bookies I use do it, maybe others are different, I'm not naming names cos Im not promoting anyone, Steve Bamford is much better for this kind of thing.

Player X - £1 e/w at 80/1 - places two shots behind the winner, tied 3rd with 4 other guys at the Open. Bookies were paying to 6 places, but next shot back is actually T8 so they won't place. You've placed T3, but it's split between the 4 dudes. So you get 1/4 odds = 20/1 for the place, then split between 4 = 5/1. You sweated all Sunday as he looked like he could win and you've won a fiver. LOL. Don't count a penny til the scorecards are signed! It was a good sweat though eh?! Cash out if often offered if your guys gets a lead, depends on whether you think he can close it out.

Weather also plays a big part, if your guy starts early Thursday late Friday and thats when the wind is calm, theyve got a great start on the other half of the draw that got battered. Particularly relevant to First Round Leaders, which are a good way of trying to get a pot together for the weekend (how often have you never heard of the guy leading after day 1?! - Plenty!)

The way I see it is there are 150 guys in the field, so for example if one of them won at that event on that course in the past few years is on at 200/1 hes worth a look, similarly guys who are in form might place one week and still be 150/1 the next just cos he's in a field with big boys. Form counts, and some courses suit the eye.

Look at as many sources as you can, they all have different angles on who should perform well and you have to make your own mind up as to whether you think that's the right angle. I find the yanks unbearably loyal to their own in the face of all the evidence to the contrary, I have no idea how many times Bubba was supposed to win this year and he placed a bit but didn't bring it home. Top 10s don't return much value. That said the Golf Channel "Power rankings" in which they list the top 20 players going into the US tournament is a good insight, as are their fantasy channel experts, the better experts will often pick a winner (albeit at short odds, they never see the outside coming).

Finally if you absolutely KNOW someone like Day is destined to win a given event you have a few options. I felt Speith was a sure thing at the Masters so opened a new account where the first bet was at triple odds. Monday morning I withdrew the money and closed the account.

Another tactic in this instance is to do Doubles, where you pick someone on the Eurpoean Tour and someone on the American to win the same weekend. Obviously this is a long shot even if one of the guys is a favourite, so the odds reflect it. I've had a couple return places but no wins, a win would be huge money for small stakes, the chances, however, are slim, and it's brutal to see one guy take off Thursday while his partner flunks across the pond.

My two cents, do with it what you will! I didn't put my bets up before tournaments this year simply because of blind superstition, it seems like the kiss of death is always applied the second I say I've backed someone! I might make an exception for the British Masters and see what happens. Watch this space :)
 
Well Kiradech threatened for a few holes but in the end it was a tie for 4th with a million other players- or so my return seemed!

Curls has made some pretty good points regarding golf betting.

As he alluded to, i usually back 3/4 from each tour, if not more depending on prices/fancies

I always tend to stake my golfers so that the magic number is £300...that means if they win i should return around the 300 mark (with the win and e/w money)

E.g if a player is 80/1 - i put £3 e/w. Unless ive had a good week on the poker tables or other gambling ventures and then i may go larger.

The point about chasing losses on weekends is a good one - but one i generally do not follow. If i have no interest from my outrights i usually pick a player around 4/5 off the lead and hope for weekend magic at good prices.

Will have a look at the Masters soon and post my selections but my initial thought on the Presidents Cup is that the internationals @ 9/4 or bigger is in some places offers great value!
 
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Curls said:
My two cents, do with it what you will! I didn't put my bets up before tournaments this year simply because of blind superstition, it seems like the kiss of death is always applied the second I say I've backed someone! I might make an exception for the British Masters and see what happens. Watch this space :)
Click to expand...

Superstition is a strange creature. I don't know where it stems from but I hate telling people what I have bet on prior to the event finishing. There is no logic to it and who or whatever you have bet on will have no idea that you have had a punt on them BUT for some reason it all seems to go Pete Tong once you have revealed the bet.

I had it on here when I revealed I had mistakenly put £175 E/W on Speith to win the Shell Houston Open @ 12/1 and he was leading going into the final round. OK, I did double my money on it but he didn't win the tournament when he was leading and odds on going into the final day. During the Open I also had a substantial pre tournament bet on a top 20 finish with odds of 11/2. For the first 3 days he was up in the top 10 and everything looked rosey. I was offered odds of up to 5/2 to cash out and then told a few people about it and eventually cashed out for about 20% of my original stake as he plummeted down the leaderboard.

Superstition is alive and well as far as I am concerned.
 
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