Golf Betting and the GM Tipster!

[jimbob.someroo]

I always have a look out for the 'betting guides' which go up on the site mid-week about the upcoming tourney's and after following a couple of tips last year, decided I'd stick to my own method of picking people I like in 2014 (rather than on form / course / who 'should' win etc ...).

My 33/1 each way on Hunter Mahan did alright this week and went back to look at who the tipster had done for both the ET and PGA over the last few weeks ... let's just say I'm gonna stick to my own method for a while!

I know a couple on here do a bit (from following on twitter) and wondered what your usual method of selection is, and how you've done so far this year? Also anything you really fancy for coming weeks?

 

[StrangelyBrown]

Also anything you really fancy for coming weeks?

Romain Wattel, he's in good form right now.

Mikko Illonen and Thorbjorn Olesen are also looking to be good value for an EW bet.

 

[Birchy]

I usually look at form & course record mainly. If a newbie to the course will their style of play suit that course etc.

I use the betting guides mainly for the information & stats they provide.

Ive had one winner (Sergio) and a few placed efforts so far.

 

[pokerjoke]

I always have a look out for the 'betting guides' which go up on the site mid-week about the upcoming tourney's and after following a couple of tips last year, decided I'd stick to my own method of picking people I like in 2014 (rather than on form / course / who 'should' win etc ...).

My 33/1 each way on Hunter Mahan did alright this week and went back to look at who the tipster had done for both the ET and PGA over the last few weeks ... let's just say I'm gonna stick to my own method for a while!

I know a couple on here do a bit (from following on twitter) and wondered what your usual method of selection is, and how you've done so far this year? Also anything you really fancy for coming weeks?

I don't think you will get rich on one e/w punt at 33/1.
To be honest if you had done better you would have already said.
Im sure the tipster mentioned Steven Gallagher last week from memory.
I would say a good person to ask is the man in 4th overall in the main European Tour comp.

 

[fundy]

I don't think you will get rich on one e/w punt at 33/1.
To be honest if you had done better you would have already said.
Im sure the tipster mentioned Steven Gallagher last week from memory.
I would say a good person to ask is the man in 4th overall in the main European Tour comp.

Not sure a few weeks evidence where price of each selection is irrelevant, you're not required to organise your own money management/staking plan etc necessarily the best of advice (albeit the majority of so called tipsters ignore these critical aspects most of the time too).

Ultimately its a numbers game and a pretty tough one long term to beat consistently. You have to do your research, understand players strengths and weaknesses, which courses will suit and not suit, keep abreast of any news (injury, form, course doesnt suit eye, swing changes, caddy changes etc), be aware of recent form and then add in a large dose of the luck factor

For me I do less and less pre event these days instead tending to get more involved on the saturday and sunday from a trading perspective, only because this is historically what tends to work best for me

 

[jimbob.someroo]

I don't think you will get rich on one e/w punt at 33/1.
To be honest if you had done better you would have already said.
Im sure the tipster mentioned Steven Gallagher last week from memory.
I would say a good person to ask is the man in 4th overall in the main European Tour comp.

Not trying to get rich on it, but would rather win money than lose it.

His tips for Dubai were:

3pts each way on Henrik Stenson at 10/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 29th
2pts each way on Rafa Cabrera-Bello at 25/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 41st
2pts each way on Peter Hanson at 40/1 with Ladbrokes - missed cut
2pts each way on Tommy Fleetwood at 66/1 with Ladbrokes - missed cut
1pts each way on Tom Lewis at 125/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 71st

Tips for Waste Management were:
2pts each way on Ryan Palmer at 25/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 48th
2pts each way on Bill Haas at 25/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 34th
2pts each way on Gary Woodland at 33/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 37th
1pt each way on Lee Westwood at 50/1 with Ladbrokes - missed cut
1pt each way on Nicolas Colsaerts at 66/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 58th

None of which would have returned anything. I'm not saying that they're a bad tipster, far from it, and they wouldn't be asked to do the wrap up for GM if they were - but more that for all the research in the world, with the quality of the fields, it's almost impossible to do well betting at golf pre-tourney. The difference between the top of the field and bottom is so narrow in terms of quality and one unlucky bounce can cost you so many places.

I'm gonna keep picking by just who takes my fancy It's far too much effort to put in doing all the research IMHO!

 

[pokerjoke]

Not trying to get rich on it, but would rather win money than lose it.

His tips for Dubai were:

3pts each way on Henrik Stenson at 10/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 29th
2pts each way on Rafa Cabrera-Bello at 25/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 41st
2pts each way on Peter Hanson at 40/1 with Ladbrokes - missed cut
2pts each way on Tommy Fleetwood at 66/1 with Ladbrokes - missed cut
1pts each way on Tom Lewis at 125/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 71st

Tips for Waste Management were:
2pts each way on Ryan Palmer at 25/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 48th
2pts each way on Bill Haas at 25/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 34th
2pts each way on Gary Woodland at 33/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 37th
1pt each way on Lee Westwood at 50/1 with Ladbrokes - missed cut
1pt each way on Nicolas Colsaerts at 66/1 with Ladbrokes - finished 58th

None of which would have returned anything. I'm not saying that they're a bad tipster, far from it, and they wouldn't be asked to do the wrap up for GM if they were - but more that for all the research in the world, with the quality of the fields, it's almost impossible to do well betting at golf pre-tourney. The difference between the top of the field and bottom is so narrow in terms of quality and one unlucky bounce can cost you so many places.

I'm gonna keep picking by just who takes my fancy It's far too much effort to put in doing all the research IMHO!

My apologies I thought he mentioned Gallagher.
It just goes to show what a lottery it is.
E/W must be the way to go.
What companies offer the best odds on golf,and what place do they go down too?.
Also what percentage is the odds reduced for places?

 

[fundy]

My apologies I thought he mentioned Gallagher.
It just goes to show what a lottery it is.
E/W must be the way to go.
What companies offer the best odds on golf,and what place do they go down too?.
Also what percentage is the odds reduced for places?

In the run of the mill tournaments the majority of the firms bet first 5 a 1/4 of the price for the place part. At the bigger tournaments and especially the majors some of the firms will pay upto 7 or 8 even places somethimes (but bear in mind they usually reduce the outright price to reflect the number of places they pay). Most books will also let you bet someone just for top 5 or top 10 which can be appealing if you are looking to back a big outsider (and can keep interest longer if there looks like being a runaway leader)

 

[jimbob.someroo]

My apologies I thought he mentioned Gallagher.
It just goes to show what a lottery it is.
E/W must be the way to go.
What companies offer the best odds on golf,and what place do they go down too?.
Also what percentage is the odds reduced for places?

Most do something like 1/3 or 1/4 odds for top 4 places pre-tourney and they tend to go down to 1/4 for top 3 by sunday and then even less on the day itself.

I don't bet online anymore but on betfair you could have bet against Rory winning on Friday when he was ripping it round and a £10 stake would have returned £80.

A friend of mine does a lot of money backing / laying players through the weekend and makes some solid money off it. He backed DeLeat at something stupid each way on Saturday morning and watched his money rack up as he shot two 65's at the weekend.

 

[Big D 88]

I bet on both tours each week

Had bubba straight win and matsuyama at 40-1 each way

I regularly have a few in contention come the weekends but so far in 2014 no big wins. Although if Speith had closed out a couple of sundays recently i could of had a complete new custom fit haha

 

[Birchy]

Most do something like 1/3 or 1/4 odds for top 4 places pre-tourney and they tend to go down to 1/4 for top 3 by sunday and then even less on the day itself.

I don't bet online anymore but on betfair you could have bet against Rory winning on Friday when he was ripping it round and a £10 stake would have returned £80.

A friend of mine does a lot of money backing / laying players through the weekend and makes some solid money off it. He backed DeLeat at something stupid each way on Saturday morning and watched his money rack up as he shot two 65's at the weekend.

If you can watch it live and bet in play its a good way to make solid money providing you are sensible of course. You will probably make more money this way but wont have the massive wins that sometimes come with a pre tourney bet.

Bubba was prime for blowing it yesterday but I just couldn't pull the trigger on a lay! Was a bit annoyed to say the least when he missed that putt on 18

I think because Mark Roe was so certain that he was going to blow up and he was banging on about it every 5 mins it put me off as he talks through his back end most of the time!

 

[Big D 88]

If you can watch it live and bet in play its a good way to make solid money providing you are sensible of course. You will probably make more money this way but wont have the massive wins that sometimes come with a pre tourney bet.

Bubba was prime for blowing it yesterday but I just couldn't pull the trigger on a lay! Was a bit annoyed to say the least when he missed that putt on 18

I think because Mark Roe was so certain that he was going to blow up and he was banging on about it every 5 mins it put me off as he talks through his back end most of the time!

I had Bubba and it was so irritating just how much hatred Roe had for him

So much so that even if i didnt have Bubba id of loved for him to win just to shut his smug grin up

As it happens, he was right for a change

 

[KJT123]

I had Gallacher, Bubba and Ryan Moore this week. Should have had two winners and a place but for silly mistakes from both Moore and Watson

 

[paddyc]

I don't think you will get rich on one e/w punt at 33/1.
To be honest if you had done better you would have already said.
Im sure the tipster mentioned Steven Gallagher last week from memory.
I would say a good person to ask is the man in 4th overall in the main European Tour comp.

Hey guys

Yes it is I who is sitting fourth overall. I had Gallagher in my team and have picked Garcia and Oosthuizen as star player winners so far. I am not a betting man really and have no secret formula. Usually course form and those on form dictates my picks, but generally I tend to avoid the betting shop. A bit of homework can unearth some big price each way value, but there are so many players who can potentially win on the European and PGAtours. Hang on my missus has a William Hill account, I need to find the password!

 

[Green Bay Hacker]

Hadn't had a bet since last years PGA until last weekend when I had a punt on Harris English and Ryan Moore. Thought I was in with a shout after 3 rounds and would have got my money back but for the 450 degree lip out with Ryan Moore's putt on 18.