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Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Billysboots said:
I just want them reported accurately. Not too much to ask.
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Yes, that would be highly desirable. But I don't think it is as easy as people might think.
To be 100 per cent accurate as to whether Covid was the cause , as opposed to contributory cause, or present but not the cause, would need, I opine, an autopsy.
Clearly impractical in all deaths where Covid is "in the vicinity ", so to speak.
Germany did it different from us, and might be subject to accusations I have earlier referred to ( don't know if that happened).
But whichever way is chosen, there seem to be critics of it.
And, having read the article, I still think our way of recording is reasonable.
In your profession, if asked to make an opinion on the cause of death, you would surely have considered it highly likely that Covid was at least contributory, if not the main cause.
You didn't have those three stripes for no reason?
 
Backache said:
To summarise from the report
Elderly man in a care home facility gets an acute respiratory infection and dies at a time when covid was known to be active in that home, a test was refused(not unreasonable if he felt it uncomfortable) At a time when there are from surveillance studies very few other repiratory viruses prevalent in the community GP surmises that the most likely cause of death was covid.
He's probably right but without a post mortem we can't be certain and there will inevitably be a few misdiagnoses in both directions ,not sure that it's a national outrage.
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Where does it say he developed an acute respiratory infection? He had long standing COPD and was described as a little chesty.

If there was any suggestion that he had developed an acute respiratory infection then I would not have made the observation I did, because quite clearly it would seem more reasonable in those circumstances to suspect Covid.

My point here is two fold. First, on the face of it and as described by the author of the article the assumption seems to be a leap of faith.

But more importantly, and this point seems to be getting lost in the debate, he did not die within 28 days of a positive Covid test. If his death is included in the statistics, which of course it will have been, then why for months have we been told daily that the number of deaths refers to those who have died within 28 days of a positive test? Quite clearly that is not the case at all and consequently the figures should be viewed with some suspicion.
 
Billysboots said:
Where does it say he developed an acute respiratory infection? He had long standing COPD and was described as a little chesty.

If there was any suggestion that he had developed an acute respiratory infection then I would not have made the observation I did, because quite clearly it would seem more reasonable in those circumstances to suspect Covid.

My point here is two fold. First, on the face of it and as described by the author of the article the assumption seems to be a leap of faith.

But more importantly, and this point seems to be getting lost in the debate, he did not die within 28 days of a positive Covid test. If his death is included in the statistics, which of course it will have been, then why for months have we been told daily that the number of deaths refers to those who have died within 28 days of a positive test? Quite clearly that is not the case at all and consequently the figures should be viewed with some suspicion.
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He was given antibiotics because he was chesty which implies that he had an infection in his chest or respiratory infection.

Deaths from covid are reported in two ways one is to give a quick update on which way the deaths are heading and are the ones regularly announced each day and are deaths within 28 days of a first positive test. He will not have been included in this tally.
The second is those updated by the ONS on a weekly basis from death certificates which will rule out a few of the rare cases in the first instance such as the old trope of someone getting run over by a bus after a test. However it will include others who take more than 28 days to die after their first test not uncommon in ITU and those where the diagnosis was made clinically.
No count is ever going to be 100% accurate but there is no reason to believe that UK numbers are inaccurate.
 
Backache said:
He was given antibiotics because he was chesty which implies that he had an infection in his chest or respiratory infection.

Deaths from covid are reported in two ways one is to give a quick update on which way the deaths are heading and are the ones regularly announced each day and are deaths within 28 days of a first positive test. He will not have been included in this tally.
The second is those updated by the ONS on a weekly basis from death certificates which will rule out a few of the rare cases in the first instance such as the old trope of someone getting run over by a bus after a test. However it will include others who take more than 28 days to die after their first test not uncommon in ITU and those where the diagnosis was made clinically.
No count is ever going to be 100% accurate but there is no reason to believe that UK numbers are inaccurate.
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My misunderstanding then. Thanks for clearing it up. And for doing so without referring to me as silly, or trying to patronise me in any way.

?
 
Leftitshort said:
There is a school of though that supports that
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Surely in that case you look at the excess deaths figure for the year. There were 85000 excess deaths recorded last year - and that's only up to November. By the time deaths from December to now are taken in to account I don't see how people can say the numbers are being falsely inflated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55631693
 
ColchesterFC said:
Surely in that case you look at the excess deaths figure for the year. There were 85000 excess deaths recorded last year - and that's only up to November. By the time deaths from December to now are taken in to account I don't see how people can say the numbers are being falsely inflated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55631693
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I’m not saying I buy into it, just saying there’s a school of thought. There have been excess deaths, but has the cause been accurately recorded? Also it will be interesting (if that’s the correct term?) to look at the death rate in retrospect over the next 5 years.
 
This is maybe a little interesting - might speculate that deaths from things like flu, road collisions, late night gatherings etc. may be lower than normal. Note the 3rd bar from December to February
aviary-image-1608142775514.jpeg
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Leftitshort said:
I’m not saying I buy into it, just saying there’s a school of thought. There have been excess deaths, but has the cause been accurately recorded? Also it will be interesting (if that’s the correct term?) to look at the death rate in retrospect over the next 5 years.
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Excess deaths for the past 3 years, see link below, certainly show that the last 12 months have been exceptional to
say the least.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1131428/excess-deaths-in-england-and-wales/
 
Leftitshort said:
Probably too early.....but I was thinking about the next 5 years. Do the next 5 track below average? Something for our kids to discuss.
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Depending on what happens with Covid and the vaccine I would expect deaths over the next few years to be below average. Purely based on the fact that many of those who would have died in the following years will have died in the last 12 months. We've had approx 85000 excess deaths this year and most of those will have been in the over 75's. This means that there will be fewer old people dying in the coming years.
 
ColchesterFC said:
Depending on what happens with Covid and the vaccine I would expect deaths over the next few years to be below average. Purely based on the fact that many of those who would have died in the following years will have died in the last 12 months. We've had approx 85000 excess deaths this year and most of those will have been in the over 75's. This means that there will be fewer old people dying in the coming years.
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Yeah, Covid has thinned out the population of people most likely to leave us in the next few years. Could be offset somewhat by an increased number of deaths from people with medium term complications of Covid causing organs failures of one sort or another. Lots of evidence of people with medium level Covid having inflammatory effects in heart, kidneys etc. I am also worried about effects in bone marrow and other systems which could cause other nasty changes.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Observation my lad made yesterday on relaxing and reopening...his sector (performing arts) has been wrecked by the pandemic and a lot of lives and careers have - at best - crashed to a halt - for many wrecked. And as desperate as he is (and he is feeling very desperate) he wants relaxing and reopening to be slow and careful.

His conversations with friends and colleagues in the sector tell him that once reopened they absolutely must have some stability and level of certainty...the sector and those working in it just cannot face or cope with any prospect of further closures, shutdowns or lockdowns - much has to be planned, arranged, booked many months if not more than a year in advance...and so as depressed and desperate as he is...slow and careful.

And if he could (but as he can’t I’ll do it for him) he would plead with all those feeling fed up and keen to reopen very quickly, please please just be patient and do what is asked of us; please don’t go pushing the boundaries or breaking the rules, because many people’s careers and lives depend upon us - a society as a whole and as one - getting this right.
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Has your lad seen this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...to-help-as-jobless-roadies-turn-to-food-banks
 
yandabrown said:
Has your lad seen this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...to-help-as-jobless-roadies-turn-to-food-banks
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Many thanks for that...he’s not a roadie as such, but works with the stagehands as well as the artists themselves - and is in the identical situation in respect of the context of his work and how the work comes his way - so the article describes exactly where he is - and like those talked about in the article - his applications for grants failed and he doesn’t qualify for any of the other government schemes the Treasury Spokesman mentioned or they make no sense for him. So one of the many in his sector who have fallen through the gaps. I haven’t though heard him mention the stagehand fund the artists have set up. I’ll pass the article to him. Many thanks again.

He‘s heard that one of the tours he was going to do last year - Lloyd Cole- has been rescheduled for 2022 - simply with so much uncertainty and concern about things getting shut down again this year many artists and bands are going to do this...just forget about 2021 also...why my lad is desperate that we relax things slowly and carefully.
 
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