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Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

larmen said:
Cheers. 1k a day seems a low target. I think if we are on 12 now that makes it roughly 8 more weeks (down to 6, 3, 1.5, 0.8) and little bit into April. I hope they don't open up for Easter then, Christmas didn't go to well.

Saying that, Scotland and N. Ireland did open schools which I am hoping for as well, but it might have an effect on the half-life number in teh calculations.


Well, I learned Mathematik when I went to school, and now teaching the 4 year old just 'numbers' in home schooling. Will progress to maths eventually.
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...that’s arithmetic (note - never arithmetics ?)....back in the day when we still used Napier’s rods, for mathematics we got trig and calculus lobbed in...arithmetic’s the easy day-2-day stuff ?
 
Lord Tyrion said:
If infections are at 1,500 per day but none of those go into hospital due to age, health, vaccine etc then the number of infections stops being relevant doesn't it?
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Seems a fairly sensible way of looking at things. Only thought is during the two bad phases we went through I had a feeling a lot of bad things happened outside of hospital also - but we may be past that
 
hovis said:
I've noticed that we seemed to have hit a plateau with around 12,000 infections a day
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I was similarly noticing our European counterparts like France, Italy, Spain, Germany seem to have similarly plateaued, some maybe creeping up. So maybe that's how it will be for a while
 
ONS survey reports a 31% decline in infections from previous week and 7 day average of cases was 20% lower this week than last week, so I’m not sure where the ‘plateau’ comments come from.
 
IainP said:
I was similarly noticing our European counterparts like France, Italy, Spain, Germany seem to have similarly plateaued, some maybe creeping up. So maybe that's how it will be for a while
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I think it’s important to look at the daily average, rather than daily figures in isolation. Whilst the last few days seem to have seen a plateau, the weekly trend is still very definitely down.

With vaccines appearing to me making an impact I feel more positive now than I have in a long time.
 
D-S said:
ONS survey reports a 31% decline in infections from previous week and 7 day average of cases was 20% lower this week than last week, so I’m not sure where the ‘plateau’ comments come from.
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That was purely from observations in regards to the daily infection rates. Each day was seeing a significant drops when infections where high but durring the last week to 10 days the weekday numbers doesn't seem to want to drop past the 12,000 ish mark. I'm not saying they're not coming down I'm saying the rate in which they have gone down seems to be tailing off
 
Observation my lad made yesterday on relaxing and reopening...his sector (performing arts) has been wrecked by the pandemic and a lot of lives and careers have - at best - crashed to a halt - for many wrecked. And as desperate as he is (and he is feeling very desperate) he wants relaxing and reopening to be slow and careful.

His conversations with friends and colleagues in the sector tell him that once reopened they absolutely must have some stability and level of certainty...the sector and those working in it just cannot face or cope with any prospect of further closures, shutdowns or lockdowns - much has to be planned, arranged, booked many months if not more than a year in advance...and so as depressed and desperate as he is...slow and careful.

And if he could (but as he can’t I’ll do it for him) he would plead with all those feeling fed up and keen to reopen very quickly, please please just be patient and do what is asked of us; please don’t go pushing the boundaries or breaking the rules, because many people’s careers and lives depend upon us - a society as a whole and as one - getting this right.
 
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The sheer pettiness of some people. A wonderful announcement that care home residents would be allowed to have one visitor each. So someone else has to immediately announce she will allow two.
 
Pathetic Shark said:
The sheer pettiness of some people. A wonderful announcement that care home residents would be allowed to have one visitor each. So someone else has to immediately announce she will allow two.
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I was reading SILH post and totally agreed on a steady opening of lockdown ( and I use that term very loosely). I was going to reply saying as much as I agree I have a feeling it would be more like a stampede once the door is slightly opened. PS, your post. Confirms what I think may well happen. People extracting the urine.
 
Billysboots said:
I’m not a fan on the Daily Mail, far from it. But a friend sent me the link below and, if this sort of behaviour is replicated elsewhere, which it doubtless is, then it’s a national outrage.


https://mol.im/a/9279767
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The writer (and the Dad) did not appear to really believe in Covid. He died 2 weeks after the last negative test. He could have 50 negative tests before that and it would still be irrelevant. The writer does not mention whether there was Covid circulating or whether his terminal symptoms were typical or not. She also appears too think she knows better how to complete a Medical Certificate of Cause of Death better then the doctor. She is wrong. It is perfectly proper to put down something that is reasonably suspected even if not proven. This is the significant question. If there was Covid circulating and the Dad had a high temp and other Covid typical symptoms, on top of his COPD, then it is quite reasonable. Because there was no positive test, the death will not be counted in the official death within 28 day count.

A national outrage? Really. Don't be silly.
 
Pathetic Shark said:
The sheer pettiness of some people. A wonderful announcement that care home residents would be allowed to have one visitor each. So someone else has to immediately announce she will allow two.
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I heard one caller to a radio programme moan that if an elderly relative has a son and a daughter then only one of them would be able to visit. Yes - we get the dilemma over who should be able to visit...but come on...patience...I’m sure the parent will be delighted so see their son or daughter.
 
Ethan said:
The writer (and the Dad) did not appear to really believe in Covid. He died 2 weeks after the last negative test. He could have 50 negative tests before that and it would still be irrelevant. The writer does not mention whether there was Covid circulating or whether his terminal symptoms were typical or not. She also appears too think she knows better how to complete a Medical Certificate of Cause of Death better then the doctor. She is wrong. It is perfectly proper to put down something that is reasonably suspected even if not proven. This is the significant question. If there was Covid circulating and the Dad had a high temp and other Covid typical symptoms, on top of his COPD, then it is quite reasonable. Because there was no positive test, the death will not be counted in the official death within 28 day count.

A national outrage? Really. Don't be silly.
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So the GP who saw this man on the day he died saying that the only symptom the 99 year old COPD sufferer was exhibiting was that he was a little chesty doesn’t ring any alarm bells with you?

As someone who has spent a lifetime drawing the professional distinction between reasonable suspicion and assumption, if the author’s account is remotely accurate then I have a huge issue with the doctor recording this as a Covid death based on an assumption. That assumption itself seems to be that, because others in the establishment had Covid, then it must follow this 99 year old COPD sufferer who was a little chesty must have died from it.

The figures we are quoted daily on the news always come with the caveat “died within 28 days of a positive Covid test”, and yet here we have a clear example of someone who doubtless features in the death toll who has never returned a positive test. His death was registered as a Covid death based on nothing more than an assumption. Whilst this may well be acceptable within medical circles, we are told that we have now seen nearly 120,000 deaths in the U.K. where the deceased had tested positive for the disease within 28 days of their death.

Quite clearly we are not being told the truth. You might not think that’s an outrage, but I most certainly do.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
I heard one caller to a radio programme moan that if an elderly relative has a son and a daughter then only one of them would be able to visit. Yes - we get the dilemma over who should be able to visit...but come on...patience...I’m sure the parent will be delighted so see their son or daughter.
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It's pathetic isn't it. The alternative could potentially be both go, every relative goes and the elderly relative catches covid and dies. Adults behaving like spoilt children is annoying me hugely during this, they need to grow up.
 
Lord Tyrion said:
It's pathetic isn't it. The alternative could potentially be both go, every relative goes and the elderly relative catches covid and dies. Adults behaving like spoilt children is annoying me hugely during this, they need to grow up.
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A lot of homes now have the lateral flow test facility in place which takes approx 30 mins. With the amount of time care home residents have been without outside contact getting the max number of safe visitors has to be a priority for this sector.
 
Billysboots said:
So the GP who saw this man on the day he died saying that the only symptom the 99 year old COPD sufferer was exhibiting was that he was a little chesty doesn’t ring any alarm bells with you?

As someone who has spent a lifetime drawing the professional distinction between reasonable suspicion and assumption, if the author’s account is remotely accurate then I have a huge issue with the doctor recording this as a Covid death based on an assumption. That assumption itself seems to be that, because others in the establishment had Covid, then it must follow this 99 year old COPD sufferer who was a little chesty must have died from it.

The figures we are quoted daily on the news always come with the caveat “died within 28 days of a positive Covid test”, and yet here we have a clear example of someone who doubtless features in the death toll who has never returned a positive test. His death was registered as a Covid death based on nothing more than an assumption. Whilst this may well be acceptable within medical circles, we are told that we have now seen nearly 120,000 deaths in the U.K. where the deceased had tested positive for the disease within 28 days of their death.

Quite clearly we are not being told the truth. You might not think that’s an outrage, but I most certainly do.
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"If the author's account is remotely accurate" is the critical phrase here. If you were considering the distinction between reasonable suspicion and assumption (although they do not sit on the same spectrum, really), then you would consider the writer's track record of accurate, reasonable and balanced writing. Having done so in this case, you might then safely disregard much of what she says.

She says he was a bit chesty. That is a very broad terms which covers a range of different and changeable features. Her doctor may have elicited more detail and appropriate features. She also doesn't mention whether Covid was widespread in the facility.

This person did not have a positive Covid test, so will not be included in the count of people who died within 28 days of a positive test, because they key dependent element is missing, the positive test. I do hope you apply other logical rules better in your lifetime of drawing the distinction between suspicion and assumption, perhaps ensuring that you understand the charge or suspected crime before charging in. However, it is not unreasonable to assume that someone with age and chest vulnerabilities in a place with a transmissible disease circulating may have caught it.

Please feel free to amend your outrage accordingly.
 
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