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Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Theres no reason we can't be pretty much restriction free by the summer IF people are sensible (ok, thats probably asking a bit much).
Last year the virus almost died out during the summer months, so whilst we know hot weather doesn't kill it off its obvious it doesnt transmit as well as in the colder weather. So assuming we don't get a mutation that is pre coated in factor 50 there's no reason to think the same won't happen this year, plus we have a vaccine this year, millions more with 'natural' immumity from having had it and recovered, and a wealth more knowledge of how to treat it.
I can see a return to the tier system from March, but nationally rather than regional, then with monthly updates to see if its safe to lower to the next tier.
 
Tashyboy said:
Just seen this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56048444

could it be another game changer, not sure that Ave read anything like this re being tested but be interested to hear Ethans thoughts. Unless it’s already been discussed previously
Click to expand...

The cynic in me would suggest that approach will help out no end with them speeding up their vaccination programme and getting the figures to look better in light of not having the supplies of vaccine that they ordered and wanted. But, I thought the same about the 12 week gap between jabs in the UK strategy, and it turns out that our approach is now being supported by the WHO so who knows.
 
SaintHacker said:
Theres no reason we can't be pretty much restriction free by the summer IF people are sensible (ok, thats probably asking a bit much).
Last year the virus almost died out during the summer months, so whilst we know hot weather doesn't kill it off its obvious it doesnt transmit as well as in the colder weather. So assuming we don't get a mutation that is pre coated in factor 50 there's no reason to think the same won't happen this year, plus we have a vaccine this year, millions more with 'natural' immumity from having had it and recovered, and a wealth more knowledge of how to treat it.
I can see a return to the tier system from March, but nationally rather than regional, then with monthly updates to see if its safe to lower to the next tier.
Click to expand...

Couldn’t agree more with this. We have over 25% of the adult population (all the most vulnerable ones) with one dose already by now. This will be over 30% by the end of Feb - I realise they will need a second jab but the first jab already confers a significant immunity. The pipe line of vaccination supply is due to significantly ramp up from April onwards to allow for concurrent second jabs and first ones. We have more and more vaccination sites coming on stream to cope. We should be able to get jabs (first in most and second in all the 50+] into most of the adult population by end June. So why all the doom and gloom? This lockdown is fully 2 ½ months earlier than last year when, if you can remember, we had some sort of normality (bars & hotels open, rule of 6, holidays in the UK etc.) all the while with infections still coming down despite 0 vaccinations by early summer. It seems that the perpetual doom mongering of the cynical press, for whom the only news is bad news, has permeated a lot of people’s consciousness.
 
Tashyboy said:
Just seen this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56048444

could it be another game changer, not sure that Ave read anything like this re being tested but be interested to hear Ethans thoughts. Unless it’s already been discussed previously
Click to expand...
They could do an antibody test just before giving the vax, and after 3 (or 12) weeks you either get an invite for vax 2 or the notice that you had it already and are protected. This would however make the vaccination process a lot less efficient, but it might cut down on needed vaccines a couple of weeks (or 12) down the line. Then just to be sure vax them anyway once the strain has been lifted from the system.

Just guessing around here ;-)
 
larmen said:
They could do an antibody test just before giving the vax, and after 3 (or 12) weeks you either get an invite for vax 2 or the notice that you had it already and are protected. This would however make the vaccination process a lot less efficient, but it might cut down on needed vaccines a couple of weeks (or 12) down the line. Then just to be sure vax them anyway once the strain has been lifted from the system.

Just guessing around here ;-)
Click to expand...

Once I had got over Covid, I was asked if I would like to donate antibody rich Plasma. I jumped at the chance. Anyway they sent out a test kit which did show I had anti bodies. So I kinda get the thought process behind the 1 vaccine jab process. But having not read about just having one jab anywhere, I wondered if Any scientific studies had been done.
 
MegaSteve said:
For me, anyway, a bit of a concern as to what is occurring in Melbourne... Believe they've managed the virus very well in Oz... So was quite surprised when they appeared to have relaxed the rules to allow spectators at the AO... Seems to have bitten them on the bum somewhat...
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They had spectators at the test on boxing day and have had at most of the big bash games, Aussie Open tennis was just an extension of what had been happening
 
MegaSteve said:
For me, anyway, a bit of a concern as to what is occurring in Melbourne... Believe they've managed the virus very well in Oz... So was quite surprised when they appeared to have relaxed the rules to allow spectators at the AO... Seems to have bitten them on the bum somewhat...
Click to expand...

I thought that the cases in Melbourne were linked to a quarantine hotel. One of the security guards had got it somehow and that was how it had been spread.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-hotels-and-get-fresh-air-and-cctv-in-experts
 
larmen said:
They could do an antibody test just before giving the vax, and after 3 (or 12) weeks you either get an invite for vax 2 or the notice that you had it already and are protected. This would however make the vaccination process a lot less efficient, but it might cut down on needed vaccines a couple of weeks (or 12) down the line. Then just to be sure vax them anyway once the strain has been lifted from the system.

Just guessing around here ;-)
Click to expand...

There is a certain logic there, in that the wild viral infection acts as a primary immunisation and then a vaccination boosts that up to the desired level. If you demonstrate an antibody response in the person that is broadly in line with what you expect from vaccination, then they shouldn't really be very different. One issue may be the specificity of the immunity, which may be narrow from wild infection, but the booster should take care of that, although no studies are available to show that an infection-vaccination combo is equivalent to 2 vaccinations.
 
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1360621511762206734

21455D15-84B9-4005-BA60-BA2BB9323F94.jpeg
The Numbers keep showing how well we are doing

By the time March comes around the numbers potentially will be at August Levels plus the vaccine added

Lots of talk from ipaper that the road map includes

Removing the tiers but going to three stages

Opening up schools , outdoor activities and the rule of six

Then two weeks later -

Opening up non essential businesses , hairdressers etc , gyms and indoor activities

Then just before Easter

Pubs and Restaurants plus other hospitality events with spacing and restrictions

All depending on the impact of the previous stage on the numbers

If numbers keep improving as they are and if they do hit those august levels then I can’t see how they keep restrictions strict
 
Liverpoolphil said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1360621511762206734

View attachment 35005
The Numbers keep showing how well we are doing

By the time March comes around the numbers potentially will be at August Levels plus the vaccine added

Lots of talk from ipaper that the road map includes

Removing the tiers but going to three stages

Opening up schools , outdoor activities and the rule of six

Then two weeks later -

Opening up non essential businesses , hairdressers etc , gyms and indoor activities

Then just before Easter

Pubs and Restaurants plus other hospitality events with spacing and restrictions

All depending on the impact of the previous stage on the numbers

If numbers keep improving as they are and if they do hit those august levels then I can’t see how they keep restrictions strict
Click to expand...

Doing well only means doing better than doing terrible. We have seen this story before, easing off, bounce back of cases. The cases might not affect the older people as much but there are still plenty of victims available. The old policy of lock down too slow, open up too quick has been a bad idea. Still well above April cases.

I think the key timeline point is getting all 9 groups done. The 50s and 60s still contribute quite a bit of hospital activity and if the SA or Bristol strains are gaining, the pathogenicity will be higher.
 
Ethan said:
Doing well only means doing better than doing terrible. We have seen this story before, easing off, bounce back of cases. The cases might not affect the older people as much but there are still plenty of victims available. The old policy of lock down too slow, open up too quick has been a bad idea. Still well above April cases.

I think the key timeline point is getting all 9 groups done. The 50s and 60s still contribute quite a bit of hospital activity and if the SA or Bristol strains are gaining, the pathogenicity will be higher.
Click to expand...

Only above April cases because the level of testing in April was significantly lower -there were clearly a significant amount of people with Covid but wouldn’t have had a test.

When we came out of lockdown in May there were no issues , no spike and things moved to a new normal in The summer

Why can’t we do the same now with the added boost of the vaccine ?

And we can’t as a country wait for all 9 groups to have the vaccine - that would destroy a lot more lives than the virus currently is
 
Liverpoolphil said:
Only above April cases because the level of testing in April was significantly lower -there were clearly a significant amount of people with Covid but wouldn’t have had a test.

When we came out of lockdown in May there were no issues , no spike and things moved to a new normal in The summer

Why can’t we do the same now with the added boost of the vaccine ?

And we can’t as a country wait for all 9 groups to have the vaccine - that would destroy a lot more lives than the virus currently is
Click to expand...

It isn't really true to say that there were no issues in May. There was endemic virus in the community and it bubbled around until it got its opening, with some people going on holiday, Eat Out and schools and unis returning. It was never properly suppressed. The new normal was a stalemate. Lots more lives will be ruined, or ended, if we make the same mistake again.

On tests, most of the tests now done are Lateral Flow, not done 'for cause'. The number of people getting PCR tests because of symptoms is unknown and the DH will not say, if they even know.

According to the ONS, Covid deaths now are similar to the April peak, and since treatments are more effective now and the case fatality rate is lower, one must presume that reflects more cases rather than more testing.
 
Ethan said:
Doing well only means doing better than doing terrible. We have seen this story before, easing off, bounce back of cases. The cases might not affect the older people as much but there are still plenty of victims available. The old policy of lock down too slow, open up too quick has been a bad idea. Still well above April cases.

I think the key timeline point is getting all 9 groups done. The 50s and 60s still contribute quite a bit of hospital activity and if the SA or Bristol strains are gaining, the pathogenicity will be higher.
Click to expand...

All over 50s and vulnerable groups represent about 30 million in UK, 14.5 million have had their first jab, half a million have had both already by mid Feb. At current rates we should have nearly all over 50s with one jab nearly by early Easter, 6 weeks away (when Liverpoolphil's timeline suggests Pubs and restaurants will open with restrictions) - one jab already confers a decent immunity and a significant proportion of the most vulnerable will have had their second jab. This timeline seems to be about sensible as the most at risk groups will have some protection and their will be still social distancing, mask use and reduced capacities etc. etc. We will also be getting the increased volumes of vaccines coming through by then as well.
Bodes well for a better late Spring and summer than some doom mongers have been muttering about.
 
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