Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Deleted member 21258]

It isn't a matter of believing the data, it is a matter of knowing there are some inherent biases in their collection. Data is more useful if reliable.

I have done contact tracing myself, and it is hard to be sure where the location of transmission was. People were out at work, then in the pub with colleagues later, so where did the transmission take place between two colleagues? These questions tend to default to the places they spent most time, so the workplace (or home or student accommodation) get nominated. That assumption carries a level of uncertainty.

A couple of simple further questions, would give you on balance the most likely answer tbh.

Did you ask any further questions or are you not allowed to ? and out of interested if you didn't ask more, what did you tick the transmission took place or does that case go unallocated ?

 

[Ethan]

A couple of simple further questions, would give you on balance the most likely answer tbh.

Did you ask any further questions or are you not allowed to ? and out of interested if you didn't ask more, what did you tick the transmission took place or does that case go unallocated ?

I haven't done contact tracing for Covid, but in previous outbreaks of other stuff. I believe the Serco T&T uses a tightly controlled script. Not sure about local PHE.

The problem is that the transmission window is quite broad, to could have happened in a 24 or 48 hour period, so there is usually a list of exposures, and a tendency for one somewhere around the middle of the suspect period to be chosen, which is usually one where the person has spent most time. But the exposure risk is not necessarily the same in all. All I am saying is that these data present clean summaries of dirty information. There are margins of uncertainty with each.

One sensible approach is to reduce contact where possible. Let people work from home, avoid public transport and avoid social gatherings whether those are meeting in the pub or in someone's lounge. We know this is a condition spread by prolonged close contact indoors, often in places with poor ventilation. Pubs and restaurants tick a few of those boxes.

 

[Mudball]

First time ever in my life... got a flu jab.. one thing off the list.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

I'm struggling to understand why anyone with dodgey breathing would want to walk about without a mask. They should be wearing extra protection.

In my opinion there are very few legit reasons not to wear a mask. Asthma and COPD are not among them. It is ridiculous that people can just buy a lanyard and self-declare themselves exempt.

Maybe if you were asthmatic you might understand

I suffer from varying degrees - and many times I can’t wear a mask for more than a minute before I start to struggle .

I have extra protection in regards my medication but right now it’s not great when people point and hollow at you for not wearing a mask - the “mask police “ are getting worse

I would hope people would be a bit more understanding of everyone’s situation

 

[Swinglowandslow]

I haven't done contact tracing for Covid, but in previous outbreaks of other stuff. I believe the Serco T&T uses a tightly controlled script. Not sure about local PHE.

The problem is that the transmission window is quite broad, to could have happened in a 24 or 48 hour period, so there is usually a list of exposures, and a tendency for one somewhere around the middle of the suspect period to be chosen, which is usually one where the person has spent most time. But the exposure risk is not necessarily the same in all. All I am saying is that these data present clean summaries of dirty information. There are margins of uncertainty with each.

One sensible approach is to reduce contact where possible. Let people work from home, avoid public transport and avoid social gatherings whether those are meeting in the pub or in someone's lounge. We know this is a condition spread by prolonged close contact indoors, often in places with poor ventilation. Pubs and restaurants tick a few of those boxes.

This.
i read recently a report from scientists. It was a link from someone on here,( but I can't readily find it) and this report said that there was a recent thinking about the nature of spread of Covid. Whereas before talk was of droplets in the air, and 2 metres etc, it was now believed that much spread was via "aerosol "
And apparently this means that breathing in air which is contaminated because it is expelled air from a Covid positive. Expelled air can hang around for up to an hour in poorly ventilated places, particularly indoors.
Much like if someone smokes in your vicinity, how long does the smoke, in various concentrations, hang about.

Now, we've all been in pubs where someone is/has smoked, so I'll leave you to decide whether you would be breathing their expelled air or not, but if the same situation is obtaining re Covid positives' breath, then I will avoid pubs etc thank you.

This attribute of Covid has not been publicised enough in my view, but if it is the case, to my mind it is explaining the surge in cases.

Avoiding a low risk is better than taking a low risk.

 

[Beezerk]

Maybe if you were asthmatic you might understand

I suffer from varying degrees - and many times I can’t wear a mask for more than a minute before I start to struggle .

I have extra protection in regards my medication but right now it’s not great when people point and hollow at you for not wearing a mask - the “mask police “ are getting worse

I would hope people would be a bit more understanding of everyone’s situation

I heard a doctor on the radio a while ago, back when mask wearing was made compulsory, he suggested that asthmatics would actually benefit from wearing masks as it purifes the air to some degree.
I know from the masks I've tried some are harder to breath in than others, the white n95 or whatever they are are definitely harder to breath in than those blue surgical types.
Maybe try a different style mask to see if it helps?

 

[Ethan]

Maybe if you were asthmatic you might understand

I suffer from varying degrees - and many times I can’t wear a mask for more than a minute before I start to struggle .

I have extra protection in regards my medication but right now it’s not great when people point and hollow at you for not wearing a mask - the “mask police “ are getting worse

I would hope people would be a bit more understanding of everyone’s situation

Well, the facts are that masks have zero effect on the amount of oxygen getting into the lungs or to tissues. Operating theatres and Covid wards across the country are full of asthmatic doctors and nurses wearing masks for a lot longer than a minute with no problems whatsoever. I used to work on a chest ward and have treated plenty of asthmatics and COPDs.

If you have bad asthma you may be more vulnerable to getting respiratory infections, and you are certainly more likely to have a difficult time if you get Covid. You really should consider working on your fear of the mask. It might save you some grief down the line.

Still, at least you have a medical condition which arguably is a legit reason not to wear one. Many of those not wearing one are doing so out of a culture war belief they are being oppressed.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Well, the facts are that masks have zero effect on the amount of oxygen getting into the lungs or to tissues. Operating theatres and Covid wards across the country are full of asthmatic doctors and nurses wearing masks for a lot longer than a minute with no problems whatsoever. I used to work on a chest ward and have treated plenty of asthmatics and COPDs.

If you have bad asthma you may be more vulnerable to getting respiratory infections, and you are certainly more likely to have a difficult time if you get Covid. You really should consider working on your fear of the mask. It might save you some grief down the line.

Still, at least you have a medical condition which arguably is a legit reason not to wear one. Many of those not wearing one are doing so out of a culture war belief they are being oppressed.

I don’t have a “fear” of masks , at times my breathing feels restricted by the mask so I don’t wear it until it eases off - have even been to seen my doctor who has also advised others have had the issues. I try and wear a mask whenever I can . And i also had zero issues when I had to wear a respirator during exercises.

Everyone is different but right now the mask police appear to have given themselves the authority to shout at people

 

[Hobbit]

I read yesterday that 2000 contracted have been released by T&T over the last few weeks. Look. The facts are plain and incontrovertible.

My wife applied for T&T when applications were first sought. She is exactly what T&T requires - as confirmed by an email she got back from our MP Jeremy Hunt when she first raised her concerns to him. Many weeks passed with nothing until she was told she was not required - since then again absolutely nothing until Friday when out of the blue they are asking her what shifts she can do?

Her frustration is simply that they could have trained up such as her so she would be ‘oven ready’ (to coin a phrase) - and put her on a ‘bank’ of professionals ready to step in immediately the need arose. As many knew it would. But no. Even if she could still join T&T she finds it typical NHS (or NHS provider) to leave things to the last minute then reactively start a process that could have been done and dusted (to coin another) many months ago.

What other facts are pertinent to that?

If you believe those are pertinent you need your head read. You've written assumptions based on what?

Your wife was deemed not acceptable, whatever your cuddly MP said, otherwise she would have been employed.

But lets talk about this training course you think she, and a lot of others, should have had, way before the need was identified, based on your scenario. 'X' number of T&T's trained on the off chance they might be needed. Great waste of money if your scenario hadn't come to fruition. Money that the UK has been directing towards keeping people in jobs. And if the UK had adopted the rules put in place, as Sweden did, do you think the spike would be as big? I watch here from Spain, and listen to many expats who have come out for the winter. The size of the spike you're seeing is down to the plethora of idiots there are who believe they know better, you being one of them.

Even today I read about how stupid the multi-level lockdowns are. The UK has mirrored the options taken by many countries around the world. Some of those countries have taken on board the lockdowns sensibly, but then there's the idiots who know better.

Lets be honest here, you've griped since the day she wasn't taken one, just as you griped about your son's Universal Credit. She was the IDEAL candidate, the best thing that they could have taken on. Give yourself a shake. If she was that good she would have been first on the list, not way down on page 327. If it isn't done your way, all we hear is you screaming from the roof tops... who do you think knows better? Govt depts supported by experts or you? Its not a tough question.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Your funny

Not going to comment on the political measures they actually took(ie not a lot) and how they long they take to filter tho to test results, as not allowed to speak no evil political but what you say above isn't quite true

What the scientists showed back then was simply what the mathematics of unhindered or unmitigated exponential growth with a period of 7 days results in. They were very clear that that was NOT their prediction of what could happen - but what mathematics said WOULD happen without measures being in place to change the basis of the mathematics.

The doubling period for viral infection exponential growth may at the moment be a lot more than 7 days...but the mathematics will show what WILL happen if virus infection continues in the manner we would expect of it and without further dampening measures being applied. Exponential growth WILL happen - and we have seen from the scientists what that can mean.

 

[garyinderry]

Maybe if you were asthmatic you might understand

I suffer from varying degrees - and many times I can’t wear a mask for more than a minute before I start to struggle .

I have extra protection in regards my medication but right now it’s not great when people point and hollow at you for not wearing a mask - the “mask police “ are getting worse

I would hope people would be a bit more understanding of everyone’s situation

Have you tried a visor ?


I wear glasses and steam up in my mask. I've learned to slow my pace down and breath slowly. Trying to charge around like normal isnt possible or I cant see where I'm going.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

If you believe those are pertinent you need your head read. You've written assumptions based on what?

Your wife was deemed not acceptable, whatever your cuddly MP said, otherwise she would have been employed.

But lets talk about this training course you think she, and a lot of others, should have had, way before the need was identified, based on your scenario. 'X' number of T&T's trained on the off chance they might be needed. Great waste of money if your scenario hadn't come to fruition. Money that the UK has been directing towards keeping people in jobs. And if the UK had adopted the rules put in place, as Sweden did, do you think the spike would be as big? I watch here from Spain, and listen to many expats who have come out for the winter. The size of the spike you're seeing is down to the plethora of idiots there are who believe they know better, you being one of them.

Even today I read about how stupid the multi-level lockdowns are. The UK has mirrored the options taken by many countries around the world. Some of those countries have taken on board the lockdowns sensibly, but then there's the idiots who know better.

Lets be honest here, you've griped since the day she wasn't taken one, just as you griped about your son's Universal Credit. She was the IDEAL candidate, the best thing that they could have taken on. Give yourself a shake. If she was that good she would have been first on the list, not way down on page 327. If it isn't done your way, all we hear is you screaming from the roof tops... who do you think knows better? Govt depts supported by experts or you? Its not a tough question.

Fair enough. She's not required then she is. She simply pointed out that if she could have been required, then maybe a little bit of prep or advising her that she was on a 'bank' or reserve list would have been sensible. That's all. As she is no longer available or interested it matters not. Anyway - given the current hit rate of T&T I think much new recruitment will be ongoing.

And a waste of money? To train such as her - let's say 10hrs training...that would be £200 they'd pay her to do on-line training courses and genning up on procedures. Yup. Not affordable.

I 'griped' about my son's UC on the basis of earnings earned but not paid. And argued that as there were many relaxations being applied for many, and many much better off than those being forced onto UC - then a once-off relaxation in respect of 'earnings due' could be applied for those being forced to go onto UC at very short notice. In the great scheme of things the amounts would have been insignificant compared with what has since been doled out - but we all know that those on UC should consider themselves 'fortunate'. Anyway that too is all passed. Though many going onto UC in the coming weeks and months will find themselves similarly hit.

Just as those on the minimum wage should not now be complaining about government shutting down their work and their income - and being generous enough to fund 66% of the little they get. Yes - they should consider themselves fortunate - well they can go on to UC if they are so skint.

BTW - to which plethora of idiots do I belong? Those that think they know better and act upon it - or those who think they might know better but understand what is right, and so don't act upon what they might want to do. I know what plethora I am in.

 

[GB72]

Have you tried a visor ?


I wear glasses and steam up in my mask. I've learned to slow my pace down and breath slowly. Trying to charge around like normal isnt possible or I cant see where I'm going.

I have ordered one of those rubber frames that go inside the mask to keep it away from your mouth and nostrils to allow a bit more room inside to breath. Will see how that works.

 

[Jamesbrown]

I don’t have a “fear” of masks , at times my breathing feels restricted by the mask so I don’t wear it until it eases off - have even been to seen my doctor who has also advised others have had the issues. I try and wear a mask whenever I can . And i also had zero issues when I had to wear a respirator during exercises.

Everyone is different but right now the mask police appear to have given themselves the authority to shout at people

Hopefully the jobsworths while they’re shouting at people they are maintaining social distancing, they are using the masks properly, not touching them once on, washed their hands before and after application and not removed until home.

I bet 98% don’t and pray they infect themselves with their filthy, infected, covid and faecal covered hands.

 

[SocketRocket]

Have you tried a visor ?


I wear glasses and steam up in my mask. I've learned to slow my pace down and breath slowly. Trying to charge around like normal isnt possible or I cant see where I'm going.

I was looking at someone in a visor and it seemed to me that it is good for protecting against direct breath droplets but not from airborne as air is easily drawn in from the bottom and sides, surely they need a mask to be worn as well.

 

[Ethan]

I don’t have a “fear” of masks , at times my breathing feels restricted by the mask so I don’t wear it until it eases off - have even been to seen my doctor who has also advised others have had the issues. I try and wear a mask whenever I can . And i also had zero issues when I had to wear a respirator during exercises.

Everyone is different but right now the mask police appear to have given themselves the authority to shout at people

OK, fair enough. I don't shout, speak or glare at people who don't wear them. I just silently disapprove.

 

[Slab]

I’m not going to pretend no one here has asthma but its nice to know they can all seemingly cope with wearing a mask (either that or they’re just not going out)
Although it might have something to do with the different rules too; During the time the virus was live if you didn't wear a mask you’re not getting on that bus/taxi, you won’t get in that shop & you cant go out in public without risking a fine

There’s no option to self-exclude yourself from wearing a mask, as a result everyone was wearing masks or didn't go out

 

[Deleted member 21258]

What the scientists showed back then was simply what the mathematics of unhindered or unmitigated exponential growth with a period of 7 days results in. They were very clear that that was NOT their prediction of what could happen - but what mathematics said WOULD happen without measures being in place to change the basis of the mathematics.

The doubling period for viral infection exponential growth may at the moment be a lot more than 7 days...but the mathematics will show what WILL happen if virus infection continues in the manner we would expect of it and without further dampening measures being applied. Exponential growth WILL happen - and we have seen from the scientists what that can mean.

I know it wasn't a prediction. I believe I posted that in my original post.

Do you happen to know the currently doubling time and do you think it will get faster or slower over time or stay the same, interested to hear ? and do you think the models or examples so far pushed forwarded by the scientists have been very reliable in the eyes of the public?

It undermines the path and the value of science and data and their voices, as I have heard the stories about the boy that cried wolf, too many times.... I am worried about the results of the actions being taken on other deaths and poverty etc

 

[road2ruin]

It undermines the path and the value of science and data and their voices, as I have heard the stories about the boy that cried wolf, too many times.... I am worried about the results of the actions being taken on other deaths and poverty etc

I would tend to agree with this. Throughout this episode, starting with the prediction of 250,000 dead by Neil Ferguson, the government have gone with the worst case scenario and each time (fortunately) it has been no where near what is projected could happen. I think people have now grown wary of the scare stories and now the assumption is that all of the figures are over egged and highly unlikely to happen.

 

[Old Skier]

Fair enough. She's not required then she is. She simply pointed out that if she could have been required, then maybe a little bit of prep or advising her that she was on a 'bank' or reserve list would have been sensible. That's all. As she is no longer available or interested it matters not. Anyway - given the current hit rate of T&T I think much new recruitment will be ongoing.

And a waste of money? To train such as her - let's say 10hrs training...that would be £200 they'd pay her to do on-line training courses and genning up on procedures. Yup. Not affordable.

I 'griped' about my son's UC on the basis of earnings earned but not paid. And argued that as there were many relaxations being applied for many, and many much better off than those being forced onto UC - then a once-off relaxation in respect of 'earnings due' could be applied for those being forced to go onto UC at very short notice. In the great scheme of things the amounts would have been insignificant compared with what has since been doled out - but we all know that those on UC should consider themselves 'fortunate'. Anyway that too is all passed. Though many going onto UC in the coming weeks and months will find themselves similarly hit.

Just as those on the minimum wage should not now be complaining about government shutting down their work and their income - and being generous enough to fund 66% of the little they get. Yes - they should consider themselves fortunate - well they can go on to UC if they are so skint.

BTW - to which plethora of idiots do I belong? Those that think they know better and act upon it - or those who think they might know better but understand what is right, and so don't act upon what they might want to do. I know what plethora I am in.

The military weren’t involved in T&T now they are, things change, get over it. They are also being used to go door to door offering free test kits and getting abused by some of the public at the same time. They shrug their shoulders smile and get on with it.